Powered Up: Offensive Numbers
Gabe DeArmond | 9/30/2015
This Saturday, we'll start to get an answer to the question many Mizzou fans have been asking all season: Just how much of the blame can be laid at the feet of Maty Mauk? After four weeks of diminishing returns on offense, Mauk is suspended for this Saturday's game against South Carolina and true freshman Drew Lock is in line to get the first start of his young career.
Gary Pinkel said he saw progress. The players insist the answers aren't far off. But the Missouri offense continues to struggle.
After a 21-13 loss to Kentucky, here are the Tigers' offensive rankings in the major statistical categories (out of 128 FBS teams):
Passing yards per game: 76
Completion percentage: 104
Passing yards per attempt: 99
Rushing yards per game: 117
Rushing yards per attempt: 120
Total yards per game: 119
Points per game: 115
On a more micro level, here are the Tigers ranks in the same categories in the Southeastern Conference (14 teams):
Passing yards per game: 9
Completion percentage: 13
Passing yards per attempt: 11
Rushing yards per game: 14
Rushing yards per attempt: 14
Total yards per game: 14
Points per game: 14
Missouri's point production has gone from 34 to 27 to 9 back up to 13. The total offense has gone from 417 to 288 to 270 to 338. Against FBS competition, Missouri is averaging 16.3 points and 298.7 yards per game. Those numbers would rank 126th and 124th in the country, respectively. Progress? Where?
"In that game right there, we didn't have one three-and-out, we hit our third down goals, we didn't turn the ball over one time, we scored in the red zone every time we were down there," Pinkel said. "We're not scoring enough points. We understand that. But we did make progress. We got the ball above the 40-yard line every time and flipped the ball in field position in the times we didn't score. I think we're making progress and we're gonna continue to work hard to score more points. It does get frustrating. Certainly, it does.
"There was progress. I know without the points, it doesn't look that way, but we also had a dropped touchdown pass, both quarterbacks had guys open and missed them. We had some things in place to make more plays I think."
And that's the problem. On offense, there are 11 players on the field on every play. If even one fails to do his job, the play falls apart. Missouri says that's what has happened on a regular basis.
"If you watched the game, you saw our offense moving the ball," tight end Jason Reese said. "It's just the little things like a dropped pass here and there, a missed block here and there. Every time we look at the film, it's frustrating for us because we know we have the talent to do what it takes, but we're literally one play away each play from making everything happen. Eventually it's going to click and when it clicks, we're talking 40 plus points a game. We've got to make it happen first."
Before Missouri gets anywhere near theoretical video game numbers like that, it has to address the realistic horror movie numbers that are staring the Tigers in the face after four weeks.
The quarterback position has gotten much of the scrutiny through four games. And certainly it deserves its share. Since taking over in 2001, Pinkel has had 19 quarterbacks attempt at least 25 passes in the first four games of a season. Of those 19, Maty Mauk this year ranks 17th in completion percentage and 17th in quarterback rating. Only Kirk Farmer and Darius Outlaw, both in Pinkel's first season, had lower numbers. For the record, Lock ranks 11th in completion percentage and ninth in QB rating on that list, in an admittedly small sample size.
But the real question is this: Can a change at quarterback make everything else on the offense better? Because the problems haven't been limited to the quarterbacks, or even to the passing game, as the numbers above suggested. By any measure, the Tigers have one of the nation's least productive running games. But take away 136 yards on 39 carries by Mauk and Lock (sacks are subtracted from QB rushing stats in college) and the ground game gets even worse. Going back to 2004, Missouri tailbacks have never averaged less than 111 yards per game or 4.34 yards per carry in the first four games of a season. This year's numbers: 71 yards per game and 2.93 yards per carry. So the tailbacks are averaging 40 fewer yards per game and a staggering 1.41 fewer yards per carry than during the first four games of any of the last 11 seasons.
In short, Missouri is supplementing its worst passing offense since 2001 with its worst rushing offense since at least 2003. Tough combo to overcome.
If it isn't just lip service and progress actually does exist, one thing is pretty clear: There hasn't been enough of it.
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