Maybe 1915.

College football.

Evergreen response.

Soccer was going to be the next big thing in America as far back as 1988 when the '94 cup was awarded to the US.

A) The US is just too wealthy. The appeal of soccer in most other major nations is that it requires a ball and some grass to play. So in the 3rd world, everyone plays it.

B) If you don't play it, you don't get it. You don't appreciate the skill involved. You can have never played football or basketball or hockey or even baseball in your life and recognize how difficult it is. Soccer just looks like guys kicking and chasing a ball around and seemingly without a plan. Offsides doesn't make sense to you, the strategies involved aren't readily apparent, there's seemingly little action apart from repetitive back and forth. Hell, the sheer number of leagues/cups/divisions, etc... involved makes interest in the international game hard to build.

And as big a problem is that the higher the level of play, the less interesting the games become. As the MLS gets better, the scores are likely to actually go down and there's likely to be less action because teams will tighten up a bit.

Soccer's just unlikely to gain a foothold here because there are simply more entertaining things to play if you have the resources to do so. My kids all play soccer because they get to run and kick things but my oldest prefers basketball and gymnastics now. My youngest son wants to play baseball and football and my youngest daughter wants to do dance and gymnastics as well. Soccer is a placeholder for them while they don't have attention spans.

I'll take 'em out there for as long as they keep asking to play because it burns off energy and nobody asks me to coach it, but I don't expect it to be something they're interested in for too much longer.

When people want to have this argument they just can't help but overlook the regional aspect of baseball.

No, baseball's just not a 'national' game in the sense that the NFL is. Few people in NY are watching Atlanta play even when they're good. It's not like football where I'll watch the Cowboys play if they're on.

They watch 'their' team because 'their' team is on 162 times/yr. There's no need to watch anyone else. Baseball is a regional spectator sport played across the nation - it's not a truly national sport. And MLB was smart to recognize that and lean into the regional sports networks as opposed to trying to put together some massive national rights deal.

Baseball has to overcome minimal levels of youth popularity (nobody plays stickball).

Heard that Populous is projecting average MLB attendance to be under 14,000 per game in the coming years..

High level leagues are as popular as ever. Moreover, over the last 10 years or so, baseball has actually widened the gap in youth participation over soccer according to most studies.

yes, at the super-young levels, baseball has flagged a bit (6-12ish) but that speaks to what I talked about above - it's just easier for kids to play soccer at that age. They don't have to stay focused as much.

99% of all kids that play any sort of sport are irrelevant to the health of the big league product - they almost all wash out. And elite traveling teams in baseball are thriving. There's plenty of participation among kids that are likely to actually become good ballplayers.

Now over time could that lack of participation at super-young ages lead to less interest in following it as a fan when they get older? Perhaps - but it doesn't mean that soccer's going to fill that gap.

People have been proclaiming the death of baseball for decades and it just isn't happening. And again, if anything, baseball has been gaining ground over the last 10 years or so.

I suspect at some point the furthest MLB will be third in the big 4 sports leagues.

NHL is too regionally based in popularity to ever be more than 4 and MLS interest will never catch up to MLB.

NBA is the biggest threat to passing MLB.

NHL got a rights deal with ESPN again and that will help, but they've essentially spent 20 years spinning their wheels. If they make up any ground, it's gonna be a long haul.

The NBA kinda keeps shooting itself in the foot. I mean it's already more popular than baseball in urban areas so if it's going to pass baseball, it has to catch up in middle-america and suburban/rural. It can't just lean into its existing fanbase to catch up/pass MLB.

And frankly, I don't see it happening with the league's insistence on championing social causes anytime soon. I'm disinclined to turn this into a politics thread, but the people that the NBA needs to attract to pass baseball just aren't going to become NBA fans in this climate. I am an NBA fan and don't watch the league anymore.

Issue with interest in NHL is that for the youth the entry cost is so high with regards to equipment as well as ice availability. Hockey is a niche sport. I love watching it, but the average American isn’t going to give a shit about Winnipeg playing Dallas.

Basketball has probably the lowest entry cost of any sport and a a majority of the stars are American. Average dude probably has more interest in LeBron than Crosby or McDavid.

To further expand a point you made, NHL being on ESPN helps but you can’t ignore how terrible NBC was broadcasting the games.

My point is since basketball is cheap to play, majority of teams and stars are domestic/American, it has a decent chance at passing MLB that the NHL never will.

The reasons it couldn’t that you brought up are valid, but they aren’t unique to the NBA. Look no further than MLB and Atlanta in the ASG.

The barriers to entry for basketball aren't costs - it's size and speed. It's so driven by physical traits that by the time you're in HS, unless you're playing at some small little rural school, you'd better be 6'2'' or be able to jump out of the gym.

Basketball weeds players out so quickly. Blink and you can't even be a backup wing anymore...

The TV Deal, or lack of one, may become the biggest issue as the parent company of Bally Sports may file for bankruptcy sometime this winter. It would affect 22 of the 30 teams.

https://theathletic.com/2952789/2021...upt-next-year/

BTW, teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers that would NOT be affected (OF COURSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bally almost seemed like it was trying to drive into a mountain. I assumed they had some 4D chess plan in place where they were going to drive fans towards a subscription model but as it turns out, they're just going to go dark altogether.

It's really been a disaster and its wholly of their own making. By all accounts the guy that led the charge to buy the regional networks just saw it as a chance to turn and burn for a quick buck and it all blew up on him when providers drew a line in the sand.

He overpaid for the product and they weren't going to subsidize his poor business decision so it all fell to hell.

My son is 16 and plays soccer at the club/competitive level. He has made me truly come to appreciate it. It’s not easy at all. Sure, anyone can get out on a field and kick a ball. But the balls skills, body skills, strategy and conditioning to be able to be truly good is unreal. Most people don’t have a true appreciation for what it takes to play soccer at a high level. They just see guys/girls kicking a ball around.

This is 100% correct.

As I noted, you have to have played it to have any appreciation for it at all. And again, youth participation rates in soccer are at best stagnant over the last 15 years or so. It leveled out and is actually well down from the mid-90s boom that yielded...nothing.

I'm not saying it isn't incredibly difficult. I'm saying that it doesn't translate to the layperson and I don't see any spike in youth participation on the horizon or some massive wave of converts to the sport.

I'm in the same category. I don't watch the NBA anymore as well. NBA took a major shit on main hard core sport watching demographic.