I agree with this to some degree. We were getting dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Chargers want to minimize variance in that situation, not maximize it. Staley was going for it like we were slinging it all over and they need to swing for the fences to keep up.

That said - most of the decisions except the one that ended the half were like +3-5% WP. I think that's way too much to pass up in most spots regardless of momentum or emotion or w/e.

The criticism of he left 9 pts on the field is flawed. One of the attempts worked, you can't give them a TD when they converted and then say what if with the others. One they converted, fumbled then we threw an int. If you are saying they always kick on 4th they don't turn it over, get the pick and score.

So by not going for it they are +1 not 9.

This was always going to be the issue with coaches going for it more on 4th down. Inevitably they'll have a bad variance game, and the national media will have a field day, fans will get disgruntled (fortunately for the Chargers they have no fans). And you know that stuff filters to the players. If other things start going wrong, the players may start doubting the renegade coach.

So when the bad luck streak from the higher variance (but correct) plays inevitably happens, will the coach stick to his guns? Will the coach have enough clout and people skills to keep from losing the players? That's always been the big question to me.

Staley seems like a really good coach. But we don't know how he is on the practice field and in the locker room. He might be too much of a cold fish or something. If he's really good in the locker room *and* sticks to his guns, it's going to earn him extra wins, which is scary as hell to have in our division with Herbert at QB.

I've noticed he's getting eviscerated online today, but I actually like most of those decisions.

The only one I didn't agree with was going for it from 5 yards out.

I'm sure he was feeling bold after the result of going for it on 4th and 9 against us earlier in the year..

I actually wanted them to go for it, because I felt like they were dominating us and our best chance was to get a little lucky with 4th down stops or turnovers. But it's close either way in my mind.

To your point - normally I would strongly want a team to kick the FG there.

2018-2020? Absolutely. This year? Eh.

And then they go on a 99-yard back-breaking TD drive that completely gasses your already tired defense.

It sounds weird to say but there are situations where I think teams should go for it more deep in their own territory late in the game - specifically because giving up a quick score is better than a long drive - for time reasons and for gassing your defense reasons.

Like get your defense right into the red zone, hopefully they can hold them to a FG or against Staely - get a 4th down stop. Then you get the ball back and your defense wasn't totally gassed. I think there might be some very specific situations where going for it on 4th in your own territory is a better idea than it seems.

Anyway just thinking out loud.

The thing about probability is that it pays off for you eventually but you don't always get eventually, especially in sports. I think if last night's game were played 100 times, the Chargers win most of them, but there's no world where that can happen.

Football has such a short season too. There's more variance than in other games. I feel like it's pretty difficult for a coach to brush off results oriented thinking in a structure like the NFL where every individual result is so crucial. It's way, way easier to lose a few games in leagues like MLB or the NBA.

He had 11 against a 6 and kept doubling down.

Just got the wrong cards

I like the analogy.
And that same crap happens to me all
of the time we in Vegas. This last time
the dealer actually was excited when he drew a 5 card 21 to my 19. I felt
like Clark Griswald… lol

Flip the table and fight that mother ****er is the correct answer

What?

The dolts were 2-5 on fourth downs.

3 pure fails. All easy fgs. 9 points left out there.

Why do you say it's a fail and easy points when it doesn't work but discount the TD that came from a conversion. They also should have had another if it wasn't for the fumble.

You also seem to be forgetting that we just lost to them a couple months ago when they went for it on 4th down and eventually got a TD. They won the game by 6.

The 4th and 9 or whatever it was? That was heavily ref aided (more normally called a bullshit penalty), there's not a doubt about that.

Especially in a game where only 1 of them would have actually done it...