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Juju’s cap hit year 1 (2023) is low. In 2024 you can cut MVS and get $10 million back when Juju’s cap hits balloon. But you can use a high pick to draft another WR as well. |
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It's 3/$72 or 4/$95. So between $23-$25 million/yr (more likely to be $23) depending on when they pull the chute. |
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I just feel like you could probably get JJSS on something like 4/80 w/ 3/$50 being the 'meat' of the deal. Is that cheap? No, but as was previously mentioned, it's about 2/3 of what Hill costs. Is he 2/3 as valuable as Hill? In a vacuum I'd say he isn't; the marginal upgrade from 'pretty good' to 'HOF talent' is incredibly rare and incredibly valuable. But if he comes in here and performs at a high level, he's the devil you know at that point. So take Hill out of the conversation and just say "Is it worth $16.5 million/yr to get 1,100 yards and 7 TDs?" Eh...market says it probably is. Teams will pay more for less in the coming years. If JJSS continues to play at that level, I think you go ahead and give him that deal. |
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Bc these contracts will be similar. If Tyreek’s averages $23 million (ish) then Juju’s will likely be around $16 million |
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Folks that are 'mad' at your speculation are viewing the deal in terms of practical guarantees - JJSS ain't gonna touch $24 million in practical guarantees. It may be akin to the $24 million in APY while Hill's APY is at $30 million. Gotta be an apples to apples comparison in order to make any sense. |
As a philosophy, if you didn't wanna pay Tyreek, I don't know how you turn around and then pay JJSS.
Just look for the next JJSS and keep drafting. |
So what do we do if Jones won't sign an extension? Just pay him $27M then let him walk? Try to trade him now? Other?
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Dude is the best DT in the league now. |
Interesting exercise:
Let's say that Hill's practical guarantees are worth about 75% of his APY (the math is easier; its nearer 77%). And let's say that JJSS ends up with an APY of $24 million. 75% of that would be $18 million in practical guarantees at that point. You interested at that rate? 3 years, $54 million? So figure a $20 million signing bonus, base salaries of 5, 13 and 16 to total $34 million in salary on top of the bonus. Cut him after year 3 with $5 million in dead money? Cap hits of $10, $18 and $21 million in the first 3 years? Probably have to injury guarantee at least half of that year 3 salary at worst; probably fully guarantee it at the start of the 2024 league year for 2025. It would be a better deal than what Kirk got, IMO. Kirk would have slightly better numbers in the first 2 years but gives it back in year 3. But the Jags also payed a "we really suck" premium. |
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Juju is a 1,500 yard, 8-10 TD caliber player and he’s only 25. Money isn’t an issue either. They were gonna keep Tyreek at a fair price until his price point ballooned out of control due to Davante Adams. I think we can get Juju for 2/3 of what Tyreek got |
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I guess you just let him play one more contract year, then maybe try to compete against the open market. Dude would be the biggest defensive free agent to hit the market in years. I can't even think of the last one this big. |
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Juju MVS Toney Moore Rookie |
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They were willing to pay Tyreek until the Adams trade/contract rat-****ed the market. JJSS at 75% of what Hill is getting may be in their price range at that point. I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I also don't see how, unless you see a TON of improvement from Moore over the course of this season, you can possibly go into next year with a 1-2-3 of MVS - Moore - Toney. That's a pile of shit. They're gonna pay for somebody. And sooner or later you can't go full GB and just keep cycling out Mahomes weapons. You need a throughput somewhere. |
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