I have no idea what the hell you're talking about here. I assume "EV" is expected value? If it is, how on gods earth would anyone be able to determine any "EV" for Chase Daniel who's never evne played? There's no way to ascertain if he can provide anything or not at this level. 9/10 when that's the case, it's because the guy sucks.


And who cares about keeping a damn draft pick anyway? We obviously didn't care about the #34 overall. This newcomer is chewing up valuable payroll space that we could be directing towards actual needs on the team. Guys who will guarantee to play. This move is really stupid. Insane in fact.

WTF is EV? _______ Value?

expected value?

I like it. I watched him in preseason last year and he looked very sharp.

good question....we could have paid Orton that much to stay last year (Dallas paid him that I think) and he would make a better back up than Daniel....shoot, he probably could have been the starter

LMAO

Give me a break. Which one of these guys won the JUCO National Championship as a QB? Which one of these guys one a National Championship and put the team on his back to win it?

Barkley hasn't been able to play since November. His Senior Season was poor compared to his Junior Season and he was considered to have a weak arm before the injury.

Glennon? Bwahahahahahahahahahah.

And as for Smith, let's not even go there.

You're a ****ing idiot.

Backup QB is an extremely important position in today's NFL, considering all of the injuries to starters (especially concussions).

Shut the **** up.

Glennon and Flacco are fairly comparable as prospects.

Don't even get me started on guys like Tannehill going in the top 10.

There's nothing wrong with this QB class. It's just an RGIII/Luck hangover.

considering we now have the most injury prone QB in the NFL, I'd say our backup is the MOST important lol

Then why did we sign a midget nobody with a weak arm?

I mean it's cool we have the weakest arms in the NFL on our roster and all...

Too risky to draft a QB.

Much safer to replace a top 5 LT in a year with a wasted pick the previous year.

"WE HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO SURE THINGS AT QB BECAUSE THAT IS HOW THE DRAFT WORKS. THEREFORE WE CAN'T DRAFT GENO!!!"

- idiots who can't remember a time before Luck and RGIII

I'll be the first to admit that i know next to nothing about this guy, but if Sean Payton wanted him theres gotta be something worthwhile there... right?

Wow - time flies. So you are 31 now and still doing this shit? Impressive. BTW - did the skin on your dick ever grow back?

herp-derp. Its a weak-assed excuse/philosophy and you damned well know it.
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Clueless Art Rooney over a "competent" Clark Hunt, please
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Starting QB position however is apparantly not important to the KC Chiefs.
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Thats why we now have 6

Do you know ANYTHING about the Steelers?

Their franchise was and is beholden to QB play, like everyone else.

two things I like about Daniel...actually three

A) Sean Payton discovered Tony Romo at the combine when he was simply a combine thrower, not a participant. He had Parcells sign his as a UFA and he beat out Drew Henson to back up Drew Bledsoe and eventually became Dallas' franchise QB.

B) Preseason. I drafted Russell Wilson because of how he looked in preseason. Daniel looked sharp in preseason.

C) Preparation. Daniel sat behind Brees his entire career and knows how a 'physically limited' QB has to prepare to be a winner.

I'm not saying Daniel could be the next Brees but he has a lot working for him to turn some heads.

Bullshit.

Do you what's "weak"? That dumbasses here think that the Chiefs have years and years to waste trying to develop a first round QB, who by all accounts, shouldn't BE a first round QB, when the franchise has suffered through FIVE OUT OF SIX losing seasons, the most since the 80's.

The FIRST thing this team needs to do is build credibility with the agents and players, then with the fans. As much as you would bitch about an 8-8 team, the Chiefs WOULD be viewed far differently than another 2-14 team.

Dan Rooney had been the guiding force behind the Steelers for years and years. Since he's become the ambassador to Ireland, the Steelers have been on the decline, which started after the 2008 Super Bowl.

Art Rooney is clueless. He has a rudderless ship in Pittsburgh and they're not improving on the field or via personnel.

I'm stoked now. He could be the next Rich Gannon.

you missed the Kordell Stuart days didn't you?

No, I remember them quite well.

Mostly I remember a shitty QB holding back an otherwise good football team.

shit if we get Rich Gannon out of Chase Daniel talk about a steal of a signing

the problem with you, Mr. Man, is you think Aaron Rodgers' grow off trees...

do you think the Bears can win anything with Jay Cutler?

If they actually improve their league-worst OL to something above average, absolutely.

Alex Smith would have that Bears team at 4-12.

and you honestly don't think Jay Cutler, and his inability to get rid of the ball, has nothing to do with the ineffectiveness of his offensive line?

I just know Andy Reid realizes the importance of good QB play...and as much as I don't disagree with all of the disappointment and all of the 'here we go again' and all of the 'remember when it was In Scott We Trust?'...I'm willing to give Andy the benefit of the doubt on Geno Smith when every expert says the same thing as well.

Dude, they can't block people. Period.

Cutler never created any protection problems in Denver.

Duno what the convo is up to this point, but I would take Cutler over the trash on our Roster in a heart-beat.

I don't remember Cutler in Denver other than choke jobs and never having a winning record.

I'm just saying...in Bears country everyone hates Cutler. Everyone always hates the QB. Unless the QB is Aaron Rodgers.

Yeah so EV is expected value. Gambler's who do +EV things are long-term winners...one example.

So this FantasyDouche character I've talked back and forth with a lot. I've had him on my podcast, he's written a book, and he's a highly analytical guy. Basically his premise is very much stats based and he's essentially shown that you can take all of the data that's readily available from past players and use it to find how similar players will perform in the NFL. It's not perfect, but it's basically shown that it's as good, if not better than just watching lots of tape.

Before I go any further though, his real contention is that teams should be using analytics along with scouting to analyze players and yield the best possible outcomes...i.e. be even more +EV.

Anyway, he elaborated more. I won't post the fancy tweets just since they take up a lot of room, but here's what he had to say:


He also did an article on his site about Chase Daniel's NFL comparables.

I can't paste in the table, but you can see it here. The names on the list are:

Ben Roethlisberger
Andrew Luck
Kyle Orton
Philip Rivers
Matt Leinart
Kevin Kolb
Geno Smith

So there's good and bad names. Basically what he's getting at is that the Chiefs got a similar player to Geno and just had to pay him some money. Most people will understandably call that outlandish, and remember, this is only based on what they've done statistically for the most part. Nevertheless, based on this analysis I think you can definitely call the move +EV and I understand why the Chiefs did it. We have no idea who will be the better pro, Geno or Chase, but they sacraficed much less to find out.

(This post is going to get laughed at so hard, but it makes sense to me so rip away!)

Orton is making $5M a year.

And yet he is winning there.

And he'd win even more if they had tackles who weren't abortions.

I love Jay Cutler.

Why is it weaker than 2 years ago? Leave Newton out of it since you claim he was a no-brainer because he led his team to a N.C.

Locker, Ponder and Gabbert all went in the top 12. Locker had a career 54% completion percentage. Senior year TD to INT ratio of only 17 to 9. EJ Manuel bailed Ponder's ass out two years in a row when he took over for him and won bowl games. Gabbert had questions and was as erratic as anyone.

I have a hard time believing that EJ can't be viewed superior to Ponder, or Smith/Barkley/Glennon better than an inaccurate Locker, etc.

why cant alex smith be rich gannon?

every QB who sucked ever could be rich gannon!

sign them all!

I just don't see it...

Cutler is worse than Aaron Rodgers when it comes to taking sacks. Both of those guys take unnecessary sacks all of the time.

They blame the line every year in Chicago..."fix" it with picks and free agents every year...and the results are the same every year.

After a while you have to actually watch and see why...and I live in Illinois, so the Bears are forced down my throat...

I think Cutler makes that very, very average line look very, very terrible.

Rodgers has one flaw and it is he takes too many sacks. He always tries to make the big play rather than always making the right play.

I said as much when I predicted the 49ers to beat them. I said the 49ers present a bad matchup because they can get to the QB and Rodgers will take the sack. I also said Kaepernick was vastly underrated but what do I know?

I'm sure he could but I know what Alex Smith is. He's an efficient game manager...I don't know if there is much upside and I know he takes too many sacks.

I am hoping Chase Daniel has more upside and could be a poor man's Drew Brees (from what I remember he doesn't have good arm strength and you can't develop that)

Six-time world champions?
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Hell yes they can.

Cutler's a stud. He always has been.

For instance, you cite his record in Denver. In the 20 losses he suffered in Denver, his defense gave up an average of 33 points/gm. His defenses in Denver were hideous. And yet, he was often still able to win in shootouts.

In Chicago...well you're just wrong there. Cutler doesn't help his line, but he doesn't hurt it either. In his last year in Denver, his first with a decent line, he actually led the league in sack%; getting sacked on fewer than 2% of his dropbacks (which is amazing for a downfield passer). His sack rate in Chicago has doubled. Perhaps he shoulders a little blame there, but I find it hard to believe that a guy that got sacked 11 times in over 600 dropbacks his final year in Denver suddenly forgot how to slide protection and unload the football immediately upon his arrival in Chicago. It's a combination of scheme and protection that dooms him out there.

In Denver, he had no defense at all. In Chicago, he's had no O-line at all. He's just never been in a situation where he should've been expected to just drag the team to a SB.

He has one of the top 3 arms in the league and while his accuracy comes and goes, he's able to make placement throws into the corner that maybe 5 guys can make with any regularity. He's mobile in the pocket and he has a swagger that I love in my quarterback. It's the same swagger that gets Brady sucked off as a 'leader'.

I'd trade 1.1 for Cutler in a heartbeat.

The fact you haven't heard a peep out of Chicago about even thinking about replacing Cutler the last two years speaks volumes.

and they just overpaid for a lazy TE for him

Cutler=Grbac

I saw plenty of Bears games. That line is disgustingly bad. They haven't had a decent OT on EITHER side in 3 years.

J'Marcus Webb was basically the worst LT in football in 2011.

I don't see it with Cutler. I watch a good amount of Bears games and just don't see it.

That's me though. I've been wrong.

You have to remember Cutler played for Shanahan in Denver. Of course he's not going to get sacked a lot. Shanahan QB's don't get sacked a lot. It's in the scheme.

I too watch about 70% of Bears games, and Cutler does the line no favors. BUT the line is also bad. It's a double edged sword.

Got sacked 4.0% of his dropbacks in Denver; 2% his final year.

Gets sacked in 8% of his dropbacks in Chicago; 4 times as frequently as the baseline he set over 600 attempts in his final 'pre-Chicago' season.

He's getting hung out to dry in Chicago.

I shit you not - put him on this team and it's an immediate Super Bowl contender.

Cutler obviously can make every throw...and he has some good QB mobility...

but he's a dipshit. He also holds the ball too long. and he also makes throws you just can't make in pivotal situations

I see him as a fringe top 10 QB which is good...but I don't think it's good enough to ever win anything of importance and that's what CP wants in the worst way, right?

he may luck into something like Joe Flacco

I just think it's funny that Rahim Moore happened and suddenly Flacco gets $120M

The Rat's sytem helped with that.

Brian Griese did.

Plummer didn't, but Plummer was also a very mobile QB. McNabb did. John Elway got sacked more often than at any point in his career in the 1 season where Shanahan was his OC. When Shanny was his HC, Elway got sacked more often than Cutler.

I don't buy it. When he's had Plummer and Cutler, his sack% figures have been extremely low. When he's had his other QBs, they've been average to slightly below average.

Cutler's not the problem with the Bears O-line, no matter how hard Chicago fans try to blame him.

perhaps

I watched the games and thought a lot of the times he simply held the ball too long...but I was never that emotionally invested so maybe all of the Bears fans and my friends (I live in Illinois remember) influence my opinion on Cutler more than I think...

I just get the fact as KC fans we're all mad about not taking a QB at #1...

but it's like everyone thinks these Aaron Rodgers grow on trees when truth be told these same fans would bitch about Jay Cutler, or Ben Roethlisberger, or etc. etc. etc.

if every "expert" and then our very own QB hungry coach Andy Reid and a guy who went from Favre to Rodgers are all telling us Geno isn't a franchise QB

I'm inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt

even though I totally agree with anyone who doesn't want to do that anymore after the whole "executive of the decade" noise...

I have no problem with critiquing moves...but I'm not going to be a miserable **** just because I'm a Chiefs fan.

Here's PFF's "time to throw" stats. Cutler isn't great (10th worst), but he's far from the worst.

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...ps04888851.png

but to the point on hand

I really like the Chase Daniel signing. Quality backup. Probably better than all 3 of the QB's we had on roster last year. Learned the NFL game in a very, very, very QB friendly system.

Do I think he's a franchise QB? Hell no. I just like the signing. I think it has potential.

yeah, prolly wont go oh shit now if alex or, when alex gets dinged.

Flacco was having a great game before Rahim Moore happened, btw.

I know he was...

doesn't erase the inconsistency he has every, single, year

dude is now vastly overrated because of Rahim Moore...and I realized he played a great, great, great postseason

(although Boldin did make some incredible plays for him)

but yeah

Rahim Moore made him $40 extra million (probably like an extra $15M guaranteed)

I would've liked the Chase Daniel signing if we hadn't traded for Smith.

This.
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It's possible they'll seriously give Chase a shot at the job. Would save them a higher pick next year (they still owe SF a conditional 2014 pick).

That makes the Alex Smith trade even ****ing worse than it is.

You're basically saying that you wasted a 2nd round pick and a $9 million dollar salary on a ****ing backup.

We were aware of that instantly. Who is injury prone to boot.

Or you spent a 2nd round pick to have two chances at finding your franchise guy. I think between the two of them they're making $11.5M. That's certainly about average I would think in terms of QB + backup QB compensation.

I had a lengthy post on this earlier in the thread, I'm not going to rehash. They're not putting all their eggs in one basket, they're maximizing their chances they find a solution at the QB situation with a minimal investment.

Matt Cassel came in and Pioli handed him a $60M contract. Alex Smith comes in and they bring in Chase Daniel to compete with him.

Chase Daniel being instant competition for Alex Smith is pure speculation. I'd almost guarantee that Alex Smith is handed the starting job for 2013 without a second thought.

Agreed it's speculation. We'll see how it plays out.

Barring anything crazy.....we're going to get 1 year of Alex Smith and then possibly a battle in 2014 for the QB position.

Say goodbye to a 1st round QB for at least the next 2 years.

Competition my ass. This is an old school coach - Andy Reid, not Pete Carroll. They are in a win now mode. They aren't going to split first team reps. Alex is getting the ball.

I realize that drafting a quarterback in the first round has become the Holy Grail to a lot of people, but if Reid and Dorsey decide to approach it differerently AND THEY ARE SUCCESSFUL, then I'm fine with it.

I choose not to be gun-shy just because Pioli was such a ****ing idiot about Cassel.

This.
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Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet

Per @MoveTheSticks: Contract for Drew Stanton: Three years, $8.2 million. $3M guaranteed. Could earn $12M in incentives

Jason La Canfora ‏@JasonLaCanfora

Chase Daniel's deal with KC voidable after '13. Gets $3M to sign, makes $3.8 in '13, $2.4 in '14 and $3.8M in '15

So they get him in the system for one year, if they don't like him, so long. I can dig that.

he gets 6.8 million to hang out close to home for a year

not a bad gig

'Voidable' suggests that he can get out of it, does it not?

Technically, every contract is voidable by the team.

Boy you cant read 3.8 in 13

Plus the $3 mil signing bonus.

JFC His base is 800k this year