ESPN's TQBR (in which they've recently have just been referring to as "QBR" in hopes that if they refer to it as that enough it will replace actual QBR altogether) is full of shit. It penalizes the **** out of QBs for sacks and overly increases "clutch EPA" when they run up the score in garbage time. It sounds good in concept but the formula is way too dependent on subjectivity like sacks (and at the same time, doesn't account for drops). People should just take actual QBR for what it is instead of trying to replace it -- it's an efficiency rating which doesn't tell the whole story but gives you a baseline (if you want the whole story, watch the games).

They must have included weeks 14, 15, 16, 17. Here are his QBR from the last 4 games.

87.3 Oakland
34.6 Carolina
83.1 Cleveland
90.7 Miami

Pretty impressive when you consider the defenses he faced.

It also said his QBR until that point was only 21.9.

Well..... if your looking for a Peyton manning type QB, you'll be looking to upgrade that position year in and year out. Those type of QB's are just like finding a needle in a haystack, in the NFL it either happens or it doesnt. I highly doubt and do not assume that you are saying draft a QB round 1 year in year out or round 2 year in year out until we find a peyton manning. But - Andrew luck was the most highly anticipated QB prospect since peyton manning, i mean shoot the colts dropped peyton for luck, and Luck still isnt producing Peyton manning type football. That being said he may some day but right now hes not, so the position is always in need of a upgrade for most teams at QB, its just about when do you upgrade it and why.

Think San diego chargers, Brees/Rivers.

I guess. The actual numbers on the field though still don't back that claim up. Not terrible, but not worthy of throwing around the claim he was the 2nd best QB in the league the final quarter of the year. It makes me question the validity of that formula more than anything.

We'd be killing a Chiefs QB that averaged 190 yds/game... whether it was Smith, a rookie, someone else...doesn't matter. Well maybe not killing, but not pimping him like Geno's getting praised in here.

Total QBR is far superior because it takes a lot more into its rating. No question.

For the sake of discussion, though...here are his old school quarterback ratings from those same 4 games.

88.6
68.6
91.7
83.9

I still don't get it. If you look at Alex's last four games:

66.3% completions, 217 yds/game, 9 TD, 2 INT

And that includes a total stinker vs. Indy and the Skins game where we didn't throw the ball that much.

His three games in that specific time period had ratings of 122.3, 158.3, and 57.6.

Except he didn't only average 190/tds per game during that stretch.

He averaged 197.5 yards passing per game and added another 46.5 rushing (186 total).

244 yards per game while only turning it over twice in 4 weeks to close the year against teams thick in the playoff hunt that had good defenses (sans Oakland, of course) is impressive for a rookie. He was also 3-1 during that span.

They must value rushing yards or certain types of throws over others.

Also, kinda scary to see Alex Smiths total QBR against Indy was only 11.1

Reid has loved Alex Smith for a long time, and coupled with Chase Daniel's contract that says he isn't going anywhere either, I doubt it

I guess it all comes down to whether or not you think Geno will ever be as good as Alex Smith was this year.

Personally, I think Geno might be ok, but he's not going to be a star. I just don't see it?

So tired of this argument anyways.

What were EJ Manual final stats?

That's great. He still had the 37th ranked QBR for the season.

I don't know if I care about rushing yards by a QB as much unless you're specifically running an option offense. At least when trying to include it in QB rating.

Sure that's not bad for a rookie, but you're making the case that Geno was the 2nd best QB in the entire league over the last quarter of the season. Way different argument.

Hahaha

Where did you read that?

Also, this is a different league than it has been over the last 20 years. Or even the last 5-10 years.

Kaepernick
Geno
Alex
Wilson
Cam
Luck
RG3
Rodgers

The list goes on...Bridgewater, Manziel, etc.

Rushing yards need to be included because its them moving the ball in situations tat old school quarterbacks would take sacks in or throw the ball away.

If we are gonna give quarterbacks passing yards for throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage and the back taking it the distance, then they should also get the yards they run for figured into their efficiency rating.

You're sitting here arguing for this statistic, then you act incredulous when I say you're arguing in favor of this statistic. Nice job.

Running QBs have been around for a long time.

Tarkington, Young, Vick, Cunnningham to name a few. It's not new

Nah, I'm taling about 10-15 guys that teams aren't looking to replace. Not just Peyton. I'm talking Rivers, Romo, Ben, Cam, etc... If you don't have a QB that you feel it a top 10-15 QB in the league than you keep turning over rocks. I'm saying to throw Rivers to the curb while looking for Peyton.

So me saying that it said on espn that Geno had the second highest QBR in the NFL over the final 4 weeks is now saying I think he is the second best quarterback in football?

Good reading, there. That's exactly what I said.

Yeah, rookies struggle at times to start a career. Thanks for the ground breaking news.

You mean you weren't saying that TQBR rankings weren't exactly the way you would rank the QB's? LMAO

What's ground breaking is all the people making excuses for the lowest ranked starter in the league, I don't care if he's a rookie. In today's NFL rookies should hit the ground running. Geno is far from a good starting QB, and even a mediocre option should be looked at over him for the Jets.

Is Geno even assured the starting QB next year for the Jets?

No, they shouldn't. Especially when dropped into shit hole offenses. That's just silly.

No. And he shouldn't be. The little fan club here is puzzling.

The Jets are a very good organization and are playing that close to the vest rather than have an owner come out in January and say I they plan to or not plan to take a QB in the draft thus devaluing the pick.

Geno is not good. I don't care if he's a rookie.

2 in TQBR over the last quarter of the season. That's pretty good for a rook with dog shit to work with.

I'm a fan club of patience with young QB's. I find it laughable that they "should hit the ground running" and if they aren't in the probowl by year 2 and winning a SB in year 3 they are a bust. That's just the average fan and society today as a whole. We want what we want and we want it now.

Maybe, maybe not. It's too early to say. He obviously has a shit load of physical talent though and he obviously got a lot better at the end of the season. I'm sure he'll be given a chance to take that momentum and run with it next year. We'll know a little more after next season, but still not the entire picture.

What is encouraging it people knocked his toughness and ability to handle adversity. He really picked it up when it looked like his job and career might be on the line and his HC might be getting fired as opposed to quitting or pissing the bed.

37th overall for the season. I'll bet many bad QB has had good four or five games stretches. Geno isn't a good QB.

Why do you care?

Alex had 1 TD and 11 INT's as a rookie yet there are ball washers of his all over. He for sure "Was not a good QB" without giving any glimmer of hope which Geno had done in some games and over a nice 4 game stretch. Patience is a virtue.

Why do you?

I don't care about a rookie in 2005. It's different now. Rookies are playing, and playing well right away. Geno wasn't just mediocre, he was bad, and game costing for most of the year.

I don't. I'm just questioning you.

Smith also pretty much only played in half the games last year he played in 9 games overall in 2005 in the first game he threw the ball once. And ran once. He loves to bash Alex for his rookie year. But unlike Geno Alex wasn't given as much of a chance to get better since he wasn't put in so many games. But that little fact escapes him

He had a bad stretch, but he wasn't given Jamal Charles or Megatron to the pressure off. I disagree with your assertion. Just look at RG3. He was coached to a good rookie season, but struggled this year. He is obviously a talent that is going to need time to learn the NFL game, just like Geno. Sorry, but that's just the reality of the situation.

Well with your 100% certainty that Geno is not a good QB I assumed you had spent some time watching his games and researching his statistics rather than talk out your ass. My fault.

Also for someone that doesn't care you sure like to debate it a lot LMAO

How many times in NFL history do you think a team has won 8 or ore games with a rookie quarterback?

1TD 11 Picks. You can't spin that shit you ****ing dolt. :facepalm:

What is different today than 2005? You are not giving a guy a chance to get better after a course of a year. He has this offseason to better himself just like every other quarterback. YES Geno Smith was bad this season but he did show that he can compete and get better over time. What's wrong with that?


He may shit the bed next year but at least give him the opportunity to not shit the bed.

Nice post.

Geno Smith had a better season this year than Washington Prince RGIII.

Luck and Wilson have unrealistically shifted fan expectations of rookie QB's. Those two guys are the exception, not the rule.

Never said he was, it's just my opinion that if he shits himself in the playoff game we need to reevaluate the QB position. I fully agree he will be the starter here in 2014 barring serious injury. But, there needs to be heat on him to up his performance, as his numbers this year are pretty vanilla (factor out Raider game and AS #'s are borderline pathetic) considering how the NFL's rules are currently designed to promote Arena-esque passing totals. Alex plays QB like it is the mid 90's.

Mark Sanchez did that in 15 starts that's right it took Geno 1 more start to reach 8 wins then it took Sanchez :clap:

And some of the young guys like Kaep and RG3 regressed a bit. Luck and Wilson look like they are going to be starting for quite some time though.

He also won 4 playoff games in his first two seasons. That's doubled the combined amount of Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs in the last 20 years :clap:

Check and mate for the The BCD. Thanks for playing.

Then go root for the Jets?

People can be skeptics of their team's choices and still be a fan of the team. Comparing their team's choices with that of other teams is perfectly viable. Be a little more dynamic in your thought process here, or maybe you are just missing the point?

It's nice to be optimistic. I guess I'm pessimistic, but I thought he wasn't going to be good to begin with. I'm not a Jets fan, and I'm not a Geno fan, so there's that too.

I don't know. How many? I know Matt Cassel won ten games twice. Will Geno be as good as Cassel?

yeah i think i know what you meant there at the end, think u had a typo but i agree.

No he didn't.

He kind of did because he finished the season and RGIII got benched.

What were the Jets options at QB? Geno deserved to be benched, many times.

Geno Fan club is funny.


John Idzik- The First year GM that draft Geno own words.


At one point in the 35-minute news conference, Idzik referred to Smith as "a quarterback on our roster." This came one day after Smith received strong support from teammates.

"We're all excited about having Geno as part of the New York Jets," Idzik said, "but we will always look to improve any position."

http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/stor...mith-improving



If Geno was as good as some make him here. John Doesn't say that.


I love This


You act like they have a top 10 pick. They pick at 18 nothing to hide.

We'll be picking late too. Might as well go ahead and tell everyone who we want. Nothin to hide amirite?

Do you know how I know you are dumbass? LMAO

ESPN QBR tries and does some smart things. But end result can be F'd up.

Carson Palmer
Christian Ponder
Alex Smith

How does Smith end up 3rd slightly below those 2?

POSITIVES for both over Smith
-Better %
-Better Yards Per

Palmer and Smith about the same in TD throws and Sacks and fumbles.

Ponder and Smith about the same in running.

Ponder worse TD throws and fumbles and Sacks.

Palmer WAY worse at running. 3 yards all year.

Palmer and Ponder WAY worse at throwing INT 2.7x more than Smith.


The most easy and obvious adjustment would be for WR Drops.
The difference from best to worst ends up in almost 4 less points in completion %.

Drops are the only reason Palmer and Ponder are ahead of Smith in completion %. KC was bottom 5 while AZ and MIN were top 5.


It just doesn't make sense to not penalize hard for INTs. It was still a problem with the original Passer Rating.

W-L records Last 3 seasons top 14 guys in keeping INT% low.
124-62
121-82
128-69

That Win% is 10.2 Wins per season rate.

How QBs that were 5th from the bottom at giving the ball away were slightly better than 1 who was 3rd from the top seems crazy to me.

But Geno won 8 games who else can do that in his rookie year? It's not like Mark Sanchez did it or anything in one LESS start LMAO

Mark 4x as many playoff wins as Smiff. Debating 101. Don't use an example that also discredits your argument.

Jets D won 4x more games then Smith. That's right you only use Great D line for Smith.

Do you even know what my argument is in regards to Alex?

No and I've seen enough of your post to assume whatever you position you take is likely wrong.

Hey guise! We only have the 18th pick so let's go ahead and state who we want!

LMAO

No, not really.

I was a Geno supporter but quickly realized how big of a moron he is. Seriously, has anyone seen a qb run out of the back of the end zone and then try to go behind the back with the football only to fumble and the play turns into a touchdown?

His TD/INT ratio and pocket awareness are god awful.

Alex may have a bigger peen after all

That's bull. As I showed earlier, he had the second highest QBR of anyone during the last 4 games...you can't say he didn't play a role in the wins. He was AFC player of the week when they beat NE.

The kid needs to work at becoming consistent, other than that...he has shown to have the ability to win games in this league...even with piss poor talent around him on offense.

Geno should be plenty cheap enough to cut or keep.

"A lot more." Have you actually looked at the formula? Half of it is completely subjective. Real QBR are based on facts and facts alone. Like I said in my post, their system is really flawed. I'm not saying Geno didn't play well or trying to debunk his TQBR over that span, just that TQBR is crap.

It's a pretty well known fact that college QBs these days come out way more polished and NFL-ready than they were a decade ago. The NFL was running the shotgun about 25% of all passing downs during that time and now it's over 50%.. things have changed a lot.

Sorry, but I'm not seeing a difference between Rivers preperation coming out and Glennon/Geno. It's all dependent on the system the QB comes from which is why RG3 is struggling at reading defenses. You can't really lump everyone all together in a blanket statement like you're doing.

I do not want to be in this thread.

But I am bored. There is a huge difference between Phillip/Glennon, and Geno Smiths development.

Just like there was a huge difference between Andrew Lucks, and RG3.

Phillip, and Glennon both ran pro style systems that required them to actually read the defense. Go through progressions, and be a pro qb while in college.

Genos did not.

There is your difference.

Its why Cam, Rg3 Kaep, all had immediate success, and have regressed, while someone like Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and Nick Foles have progressed. Quickly.

Agreed 100%.

Its also why I hope that the Jets build around him.

They need to give him another year as being a care taker.

So he can keep developing.

Happy NEW YEAR BCD.

He proved he could get them to 8 wins as a rookie with nothing around him that resembles NFL talent.

I think the kid deserves a chance to improve on that with a couple weapons added to the roster to help him do exactly that.

That isn't true.

Oh? Care to elaborate?

Mike Glennon is a scrub.

Some people watch games, others just watch the stats scroll across the bottom of the screen.

Some people also understand that he was under a terrible coach. Never really had a running game he was also a third round pick. He will be a lot better under lovie and Jeff Tedford.