Direckshun |
02-07-2023 09:53 AM |
Hurts is a phenomenal talent, and the Philly offensive line is fantastic. But... man. He's what, 4/20 throwing past 10 yards?
I think if you blitz him creatively, and pack the box, and bracket Brown, I simply don't think the Eagles can keep pace. Force Hurts to throw it past the shallow areas, and dare him to beat you with Smith and Goedert. I think those two are really good, and Hurts when healthy might be able to pull that off, still, because the team is legitimately that talented.
But if you lock up Brown and take away the shallow zones, you're forcing an injured Hurts to go deeper to two very-good-not-great targets and keep pace with Reid/Mahomes. I don't like their chances.
But it's all for naught if they plow us on the ground. Their offensive line is unprecedented in the things they can do on the ground -- this is superior to the Lamar Hunt Ravens and meaner than the Josh Allen Bills. They can run inside zone, weird options, manufactured runs for Brown, sweeps, downhill, everything. There is nothing they cannot do on the ground.
I just... I think the Chiefs are the most pragmatic, least dogmatic defense in the NFL, and I'm including the Patriots and Bengals in that assessment. They have talent at all three levels, and they have elite coaches at all three levels. And I just think, if you have a healthy LB corps and the DL is disciplined, the Eagles can get yards but they can't gash them. They have a ton of talent but will radically change schemes from game to game when Spags is in his bag. It wouldn't shock me to see 40 snaps for Brandon Williams, Clark playing 100% of the snaps, and Karlaftis' snaps reduced as he's inferior right now against the run compared to Danna and Dunlap.
If the Eagles cannot gash us on the ground, I think it's game over.
Because I don't think this Eagles defense is going to stop Mahomes from scoring 30. Hell no.
First of all, a pissed off Mahomes on one leg passed for 300 yards and two touchdowns on a fantastic, amorphous Bengals defense that's ingeniously schemed and built to stop him, to backup receivers. Now he's healthier, and he's playing a talented Eagles defense that almost entirely plays a static zone. Mahomes devours zone, Kelce devours zone, Andy Reid has a bust pre-carved in Canton thanks to zone. A static zone?
I don't even care that the Eagles have a fantastic secondary and a historically great passrush. Reid and Bienemy will make sure the protection packages are as good as any the Eagles have seen all year. I don't think they can bamboozle the Eagles like they did the 49ers earlier in the year because Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham have seen it all. But Reid and Bienemy are going to have all kinds of charted up plays to keep the Eagles on their back heels down field. The interior line is going to be ready for the sheer force of the Eagles interior, and the fistfight there will be fantastic. Wylie will get plenty of help, and Mahomes will do the rest. And if the Eagles doesn't put him in the dirt in the first couple of drives, the Chiefs may not punt before halftime.
Chiefs are built for this game. Mahomes is ready for it. The Eagles with a healthy Hurts are a real problem, but with an injured Hurts, they are vulnerable against a smart defense.
I want to say it's an a TD game in favor of the Chiefs, assuming neither Mahomes or Hurts get further injured.
But, I mean. Even though these teams are evenly matched.... if the Chiefs are up 14 in the second half and Sirianni panics and airs out the ball, it could get ugly.
TL;DR: The Chiefs have more solutions for the what Eagles do on both sides of the ball than the Eagles have for the Chiefs. Chiefs are not that much better than the Eagles in terms of talent, and matter of fact the Eagles are probably more talented across the board. But we're a really bad matchup for them offensively and (with an injured Hurts) defensively. We could legitimately win this game by 20 if the Eagles ever get desperate.
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