Buehler445 |
05-15-2009 10:25 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by THISmaqe
(Post 5767421)
We never had his potential, therefore it's not ours to risk.
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That's where the arguement of risking potential gains comes into place.
Quote:
Originally Posted by THISmaqe
(Post 5767421)
I completely agree with the notion of opportunity cost, but this isn't the stock market. Opportunity cost - the risk of losing out in FUTURE revenue - is QUANTIFIABLE. Suggesting that project his potential production is subjective to the point of being almost absurd.
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As far as the stock market goes, while you can quantify it, you can also be wrong. The opportunity cost for getting out of stocks and going into Bonds is much different than it was a year ago. Shit is dynamic. Things change. We can be wrong.
I agree that it is much more difficult to do with personnel, maybe even to the point that we cannot glean any value from it, but we can debate oppotunity cost of players. In fact, we do it all the time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by THISmaqe
(Post 5767421)
The "value" of Mark Sanchez can't be determined before he steps on the field, and I would argue can NEVER be determined because he never suited up for THIS team under THESE circumstances.
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Understood. And agreed for the most part. But we could project his production. Its just like any other decision. You weigh what you think you can get for a player vs. What you can get out of another. Its just like any other business decision. Cabela's just opened a store in Billings MT. They have projected the store sales, but they don't know what it will be until it actually hits the market. The shit could burn down tomorrow and we get no sales (I'm looking at you Ryan Sims). But there were also other stores we could have built. We forecasted their sales and determined that the opportunity cost for not building in Billings was higher. We could be wrong. The other store may have been a world beater, but based on our forecasts, we chose Billings.
I contend that the same things can be done with personnel. It is a lot harder because there are so many variables, but that doesn't mean we CAN'T think along those lines. We could project the value he would provide with wins/losses, yards, etc. We'll never know what wee might have gotten, but Cabela's won't know what that store would have done either, but that doesn't mean there is no opportunity cost.
As for the argument that opportunity cost can be risked, meh. That's just debatable. I'd have to think on that some more.
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