You're right that Escobar's splits suggest that his performance at leadoff is not sustainable.

His batted ball profile is the exact same. His BABIP is significantly higher, but that will happen over a sample of about 100 ABs (factoring in PS), and that's a good indicator that his performance as a leadoff hitter is an outlier.

Is it not relevant that he's hit about .180 over the last two months?

Not given what has caused the .180.

His LD% since August is 25%. About 70% of your LDs end up as hits, so that alone should have his BA at about .180 even if no other ball type that he hit fell for a hit. His flyball percentage has gone up a bit, so that would cause some erosion in his average, especially since he didn't have many balls leave the park.

His BB% increased significantly in September and his K% went up. If it was only his K%, you could say that he wasn't seeing the ball well, but given that he's taking significantly more walks, he's simply seeing more pitches, and when you see more pitches, you strike out more often. Overall his K/BB% has stayed consistent

Baseball isn't uniform. A .300 hitter doesn't get three hits every ten ABs.

Unless he's battling some kind of injury that has sapped his power, there's no compelling argument that he's actually become a worse hitter; he's just had some rotten luck.

Here's a good way to consider it: Aoki in September: Chris Moneymaker lucky; Gordon in September: Martin Short in Pure Luck

LMAO By that definition most of the team will be FA's.

Here's a question for you all:

Say game three goes to the bottom of the tenth tied. You've used Herrera and Davis already. In the top of the 11th you'll have Hosmer and Gordon up. What do you want Yost to do?

A) Have Holland pitch the next two innings
B) Use other relievers hoping that you get the lead eventually and can then bring in Holland for a single inning
C) Have Holland pitch the 10th inning only

Holland for two innings, no doubt

None. Whatsoever.

Yost will go with Finnegan, though...because he ALWAYS keeps Holland for the save in that situation.

when the game is tied, Yost and I do things differently.

Like, for instance...in the 6th inning yesterday, Yost always goes Herrera first to get out of those jams. But I'd go Wade. Wade is our best reliever, by far, out of the cyborgs.

You bring in Davis to get out of that jam, then have him pitch the 7th and use Herrera for the 8th in a clean inning.

But Yost doesn't do that. He always goes H D H, which, whatever. They're all great.

I'd just use the best guy 1st, especially in 'you need a strikeout' situations.

Holland is our closer, you don't mess with that...

but I see no reason why you can't rotate Davis and Herrera depending on situation.

quit with all the bitching we are in the world series

I'm not sure this part makes sense. I know a .300 hitter isn't going to get 3 hits every 10 ABs. But we're talking about two months here. That's a fairly good chunk of a season.

You said if you see more pitches, you strike out more often. But if you swing and miss, you are going to see more pitches. If his walks went up, it tells me his approach is the same, he's trying to be selective, but he's just not making contact as much. And when he is, he's hitting infield flies and harmless pop-ups.

Not necessarily for the series, but moving forward is there any reason why Cain can't be our leadoff hitter?

If they keep Dyson as the full time CF and don't have to sign a RF'er that should free up enough coin to make runs at top a top shelf pitcher(Lester) or DH(Cruz) I'd think. What happens with Holland is kind of the wild card when it comes to FA spending.

all of the money we'll save on Butler and Shields is going to go to arbitration raises

Two months is not a representative sample size. If it was, Chris Shelton would be Babe Ruth and not a scrub, and Mike Morse would have been the AL MVP last year.

If he was just swinging and missing, he wouldn't be drawing more walks.

He's also not flying out on the infield at a ruinous rate. If he was, his IFF% would correlate with poor hitting months, and it isn't there. He hit more IFFs in May than September and posted his second best month of offensive production for the entire year.

In August Gordon tore the cover off the ball. He saw 475 pitches, of which, 293 were strikes, for a 61.6% strike rate. And he killed the ball that month.

In September Gordon saw 445 pitches, of which, 256 were strikes, for a 57.5% strike percentage.

That indicates that he was actually more selective in September.

The data just doesn't support your conclusion.

Also, Gordon's overall contact rate is in line with his career averages. He actually makes more contact within the zone this year. His out of zone contact is lower, but that doesn't mean he's actually swinging worse, b/c his swinging strike percentage is right in line with his career averages.