I'm fascinated to see this, too. KC controlled the game last time. Part of me thinks Buffalo knows how that turned out and they won't want to watch that again. But my gut says they'll risk it and hope we get FGs instead of TDs in the red zone.

The more that I think about it, expect the public to be on the over but I think this game is an under.

Bills were terrified of our passing game last time. I think they continue to keep safeties deep forcing us to grab 5 to 7 yards a carry and hit passes in the middle of the field.

On defense I think Spags will have the false reads ready to play with Allen's head along with even more exotic pressure looks to consider.

All this adds up to low scoring.

I'm not sure. McDermott said as much they allowed the Chiefs to run because they didn't think they would allow 245 yards rushing and they felt they had to 'pick their poison' because you can't stop everything. To a degree it worked decently well...the Bills held them to 26 points and were in a 1 score game in the middle of the 4th quarter, even though it never really felt the Bills were in the game.

I think they may start out that way again because they have been a lot better against the run(and on defense in general) in the 2nd half of the season, and even in the playoffs. The numbers look bad against the Colts, but they held Indy to under 3 YPC through 3 quarters until they went up 14 in the 4th and figured the Colts would abandon the run and start throwing every play. They didn't and they allowed 3 big runs that boosted their average. Against the Ravens, their back up QB had 3 runs for 32 yards that really boosted their average in what amounted to garbage time, otherwise the Bills held the Ravens to 118 yards and around a 4.0 or 4.1 YPC average which is outstanding against them. The Bills allow far too much when they are up by 2 scores late on defense and play much too soft for my liking.

I felt the Bills played too passively and gave Mahomes way too much respect by almost never blitzing until late in the game and that actually started working a little bit, especially against the run. In fact after that game the Bills became a much more aggressive team the rest of the year, blitzing far more than they ever did under Frazier.

My preference would be for the Bills to come after Mahomes up the middle and try and contain his escape lanes to the outside like they did against Jackson. Maybe show a lot of simulated pressures and have guys drop out. Bills are a very good pressure team in that they force the ball to come out quick a lot of times even tho they don't get a ton of sacks(15th in sacks with 38) and they can scheme up free runners by setting up overload blitzes where the team won't have enough people on 1 side to block everyone coming, even tho they only might be rushing 4 or 5. Ideally with the Bills, what they want to do is to use simulated pressure to confuse or overload the protection schemes and force the ball out quickly so the D can then keep everything in front of them and rally to the ball to keep it to a short gain.

If we are going to go down, then go down trying to make something happen instead of sitting back passively. That isn't going to work. It also isn't going to work if you come after him every time either, they need to really mix things up from series to series and even from down to down on the same series.

It is a really tough challenge no doubt. I think the Bills probably see if they shored up their run defense enough to play the way the wanted to in the first game more effectively and if not they probably switch to something else pretty early, maybe after the first 2 drives or so.

Blitzing Mahomes is not the best idea. Ravens found that out the hard way. I think the key is getting to him without a blitz. Need some monster pass rush guys in the DL who can do it without sending extra guys.

I was thinking about that during the Bills/Ravens game... how they were absolutely not going to let Lamar Jackson do what he does best, just like the very different strategy to accomplish the same thing against Mahomes.

Of course, one is far easier, especially in a bit of winter weather, but curious how they adjust this weekend.

It's the ultimate sign of respect though.

Typically the Bills like to blitz but still play cover 2, 3 or 4 behind it and "give" the team a quick and easy 3 or 4 yard throw and then come screaming up to make the tackles and limit it to a minimal gain. Their strategy on 3rd and long is the same...if the team needs 13 or 14 yards for the first down, they will "give" them an easy throw for 7 or 8 and then come up and make the tackle for a 10 or 11 yard gain and force a punt. Sometimes they break tackles tho and end up with the first down, which is the downside of that strategy.

It worked a lot better last year for whatever reason when the Bills were an elite defense. This year they have gotten much better as the year went on but never quite made it back to that level although they have done a fantastic job of turning takeaways into defensive touchdowns this year(4 in the past 6 games I believe including last week) after not having any since 2017.

Best defenses I've seen vs Patrick Mahomes are probably the Chargers & 49ers. That of course requires you to manufacture a pass rush using 4 down lineman named...Bosa, Ingram, Buckner & Bosa. Good Luck.

You have to get pressure by not sacrificing people in coverage. You bring a blitz & you are dead meat.

The combination of Mahomes, Andy Reid as a play designer and caller, and the Chiefs WR's makes the Chiefs nearly impossible to cover. This season, defenses have hoped to prevent the big passing play by using two deep safeties. It is the best way to slow down the Chiefs offense that I've seen. Buffalo kept two deep and a light box up front in order to dare the Chiefs to run. The Chiefs obliged but the Bills couldn’t stop them on the ground. The Chargers were able to use that deep coverage and add on with four-man pressures that allowed for more coverage on the second level. And just by keeping the game close, that still left a chance for the Chiefs to pull away at the end of the game for wins.

The coverage aren’t so much about if the Chiefs will beat the defense but more so how the Chiefs will beat the defense. That’s the problem with stopping the Chiefs offense, solving one problem creates another. This is incredibly oversimplified, but Tyreek Hill has been able to feast on single-high coverage and when the Chiefs face two-high safeties, it’s time for Travis Kelce. Pick your poison.

Even the best corners in the league haven’t been able to hold up and few safeties have the range to get from the middle of the field over to the sideline in order to catch Hill on the outside. Take the Tampa Bay game when the Buccaneers tried to run their typical defense, but even Carlton Davis, who had played like one of the better corners in the league, could only do so much in man coverage. He repeatedly got burned in the first quarter. Hill had six receptions on seven targets for 188 yards and three touchdowns against single-high coverages in that game.

Kelce’s ability to work the intermediate middle of the field when the safeties are playing deep has been a huge part of the Kansas City passing game this season and a big reason why he has had the greatest season by a TE in NFL history as teams have been employing the 2-high tactic. Between Reid's route concepts and Kelce’s run after the catch ability, he’s been one of the more productive receivers after the catch.

For as much as defenses have tried to vary game plans against the Chiefs, the best defense this year has been an offense able to keep up. That’s how the Raiders gave the Chiefs their lone loss with Mahomes.

Buffalo might still present the most interesting test as a team that figured out how to slow down the offense, but couldn’t stop the run when they dared the Chiefs to do it. But since that game, the Bills’ run defense has improved, which could limit the damage done on the ground, though it’s no guarantee the Chiefs would give in to the light boxes again. But the Bills’ pass defense has also improved after a rough start and on its best day, the Buffalo offense has the ability to put up points.

Still, we’re talking about everything breaking just right for a team to defend and hang with the Chiefs. It’s not impossible, but even without blowing teams away, Kansas City has made it as hard as possible to take them down.

Good Luck! :p

I've been talking football here for 20 years, long before you Bills trolls showed up and long after you go away.

By the way, the whole "talk football" thing is really funny ThaDix. Every time you post, you give it away, dumbass.

Those of you who thought Leveon Bell would have any type of role in these playoffs, shame on you. It's gonna be Darrell Williams/Clyde Frog 50\50 in the Super Bowl. Maybe Darrell Gets the start this week, with a bit of Clyde frog mixed in. Darrell is a vet in the system, Andy will use him on third downs and may even feature him.

Dude, if mahomes is playing we are throwing 90% of the time, good luck. We aren't going to do death by 1,000 paper cuts because yo secondary got regular season reid offense the first time and andy aint scared of Josh. We will score at will. It's on honkey magic to keep up and he will not.

You'll get your points but I don't think you are going to score at will. Bills secondary is pretty good with an all-pro at CB in Tre White. Very good ball hawking slot corner in Johnson with 2 pick 6's in the past 5 or 6 weeks.

Guess it is up to Josh to change his mind then.

Lucky thing he doesn't break his knee cap on a QB sneak or get choked out by a defender on a run tho right? Then we would really be in trouble! :evil:

Let's actually take a look at that statement that we can't run at all.

Bills rushing avg: 4.2 YPC (20th in NFL)
Chiefs rushing avg: 4.5 YPC (12th)

-overall team rushing average per carry

Bills RB rushing avg: 4.49 YPC (11th)
Chiefs RB rushing avg: 4.22 YPC (18th)

-RB only rushing average per carry

Bills power success rate: 66% (T 16th)
Chiefs power success rate: 51% (32nd)

-power success is a run on 3rd/4th down of 2 yards or less that results in a first down/TD

Bills stuffed rate: 16.9% (15th)
Chiefs stuffed rate: 17.7% (20th)

-stuff rate is percentage of runs for no gain or loss of yardage


The Bills are actually a better running team than the Chiefs are in a traditional sense with the RBs. They average more yards per carry, are better on power runs and get stuffed less often.

The Chiefs are better overall due to their success with WR runs(Hill/Hardiman) for the most part boosting their average whereas the Bills WR runs were basically no gains or lost yardage.

Kind of what I have been saying all along...the Bills are not "bad" at running, they just don't like to do it. There is a big difference. They would rather drop back and throw it because they think they have an advantage against most teams that way. I would like the Bills to mix in some more runs in this game, although I don't think they will.

Kudos on that whole cherry picking of the stats. "runs by rb only"

The jet sweep, rpo and short passes that are basically runs (i.e. shovel pass to kelce) are a huge part of our game. So spank your dick about being 8 spots behind the running backs, even after we lost our starter.

Newsflash: Not a good way to view that.