Originally Posted by Direckshun
(Post 17799515)
I have many thoughts about this game.
First of all, this is a playoff game. Win this game, and you're all but assured a first round bye. The Chiefs held so many cards to their chest for the Broncos game they almost lost -- this is what the Chiefs have been building towards. They will unload their entire clip at Buffalo, offensively and defensively. I expect this to be a version of the team we saw in Weeks 1 and 2.
I was a huge fan of what the Bills did this offseason. They are weighed down with so much dead money from previous garbage decisions that they really made super calculated value decisions across the roster. So the roster is still really good -- not championship level good, but really good.
What makes them championship good is Josh Allen, who would be the MVP frontrunner if Lamar didn't exist. He's having to will his team across the finish line time and time again. And he's almost always getting the job done.
The biggest issue, I think, is "are the Bills equipped to attack the Chiefs' weaknesses." And that's (a.) attacking in the passing game with tight ends, and (b.) attacking our tackles in the passrush. And they're 2/2 in that regard.
They absolutely can attack us with Dalton Kincaid, who I felt was a Jimmy Graham type when he came out, but is a little less dynamic but simultaneously more useful than the one-dimensional Graham ever was.
I really like James Cook for this Bills team a lot, but nobody can run on the Chiefs this year. They boast a Chiefs-level WR corps with a lot of guys who can do a few things well, and they depend on Joe Brady to somehow engineer useful plays and on Josh Allen to execute them.
Allen is having to do so much work this year, executing at high levels to keep the Bills at a top-third-of-the-league passing attack. So it's easy to say that if you disrupt Allen, the entire operation falls apart. But it's hard to do: Allen is the least sacked QB in the NFL. Part of that is because they have a good offensive line. The other part is that he's gone the full Cam Newton for parts of the season.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills boast a Chiefs-style DL that gives you a bunch of guys who can do a lot but no world-beaters. (The Chiefs, of course, have one world-beater.) Smoot and Rousseau are going to be problems against Wanya Morris. Von Miller, who knows. He's probably good for a play.
They're middle-of-the-pack against the run, however. I'm guessing we're going to get another game of Kareem chewing up yardage a handful of yards at a time.
I do think the Chiefs can attack this team all over the back seven. They're missing Matt Milano again so I would give them a steady diet of Kelce and Gray (and honestly? I like Peyton Hendershot). In what is clearly a theme for this team, the Bills secondary is packed with players that have upside here and there -- it's a really young group. Benford has had a good run since 2023, but you can attack everyone everywhere. Can the OL keep Mahomes clean enough to attack them?
I love Josh Allen as a player, hate him as an opponent. I have no doubt that Spags can dial up a game plan that perfectly counters the few things the Bills offense does well, but Allen has played well enough this season to become a cheat code against defenses. Can our non-McDuffie CBs hold up in coverage? I bet they are going to struggle a little, which is enough against Allen.
The Chiefs are wounded warriors on the offensive side of the ball, but they have all the weaponry they need to beat the Bills. The lone question there is the biggest one: can the OL keep him clean? I think they're going to struggle there a bit.
I think this is a coinflip game. I don't think either team has a motivation edge, and I don't think Mahomes cares that he's playing in Buffalo. I think both teams have an equal amount of answers for what the other team does. The Bills rely on Allen magic more than the Chiefs rely on Mahomes magic, so I suppose that's an advantage for KC. But I really hate Allen with time in the pocket with Kincaid downfield and other receivers against our corners.
Coin flip.
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