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-   -   2025 NFL Draft Simulator Thread (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=356196)

kccrow 04-06-2025 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Meck (Post 18021422)
I've run all of the mock machines pretty much every year, it's a morning coffee ritual for me post-season. Some years, there seems to be a consensus on players at least in the early rounds as far as maybe within 20 or so spots.

This year, they seem to be all over the place.

Which of these mock sites tend to be most accurate?

Good question. I don't think any of them are ever overly accurate but this year it's like woah... I don't see things the same way. PFF might be the "best", though I don't subscribe so I only get the 1st 3 rounds.

smithandrew051 04-06-2025 07:11 PM

The one nice thing about PFF’s is that you can change the levers to increase things like drafting for need, randomness, etc.

WichitaChief 04-06-2025 09:06 PM

Didn't intend on going this O heavy but the chips fell this way. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...c490f423f5.jpg

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

CatfishBob2 04-09-2025 12:57 PM

Traded 31st with Atl for #46, #118 and a future 2nd

46.
TreVeyon Henderson
RB Ohio State

63.
Darius Alexander
DT Toledo

66.
Charles Grant
OT William & Mary

95.
Antwaun Powell-Ryland
EDGE Virginia Tech

118.
Zah Frazier
CB UTSA

133.
Jack Kiser
LB Notre Dame

226.
Desmond Watson
DT Florida

251.
Rayuan Lane III
S Navy

257.
C.J. Dippre
TE Alabama

Otter 04-09-2025 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bowser (Post 18016791)
Gave the ESPN simulator a whirl. I'll say it's not very realistic that the players that were available for me are going to be available when the draft goes down, but I do like the feature that shows the percentage of that player being available at that pick and the odds they'll be available at your next pick.

31) Derick Harmon - DT, Oregon
44% chance of availability

63) TreVeon Henderson - RB, Ohio State
20% chance


66) Jalen Royals - WR, Utah State
75%

95) Logan Brown - OT, Kansas
93%

133) Jalen Reed - S, Penn State
33%

226) Tommi Hill - CB, Nebraska
68%

251) Drew Kendall - C/OG, Boston College
88%

257) Cody Lindenberg - LB, Minnesota
<5%


Yes Please!

Wallymo 04-11-2025 12:06 PM

I'm pretty skeptical of PFN. I accepted most trades and ended up with the below -- which I would happily take.

63. Jayden Higgins, WR ISU
66. Maxwell Hairston, CB Kentucky
90. Elijah Arroyo, TE Miami
91. Kyle Kennard, Edge South Carolina
95. Ashton Gillotte, Edge Louisville

2026 BUF 2nd
2026 CIN 2nd
2026 TEN 2nd
2026 BAL 3rd
2026 LAR 3rd

Would you give up big swings on Simmons, Conerly, Burden, etc. to fill the coffers for next year? This haul would make a lot of pending free agent decisions easier next year for sure.

BossChief 04-14-2025 09:55 PM

1 Attachment(s)
This would be phenomenal

Bowser 04-17-2025 09:23 AM

The One Week Out Mock! NFLMDS, no trades


31) Kenneth Grant - DL, Michigan

63) Landon Jackson - EDGE, Arkansas

66) Jalen Royals - WR, Utah State

95) Dylan Sampson - RB, Tennessee

133) Logan Brown - OT, Kansas

226) Jordan Hancock - CB, Ohio State

251) Kitan Crawford - S, Nevada

257) Garrett Dellinger - IOL, LSU


I'd be pretty thrilled if it went down similarly to this, even if I think a number of these guys won't be there at those picks. I reached for both Royals and Logan for fear of them not making it to our next pick. I'm iffy on Sampson; he' a fumbler and not an established pass catcher, even though he's exactly the type and mold of RB Andy seems to love.

WichitaChief 04-17-2025 09:33 AM

I'm very easily swayed by the consensus here on the board. This was my new favorite 4 round. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...2070c92a1d.jpg

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

Chris Meck 04-20-2025 08:49 AM

This is a LOS scrimmage draft.

31.
Tyleik Williams
DT Ohio State
A perfect running mate for Jonesy. Can play anywhere inside with pass rush upside. Sort of a better day one than Khalen Saunders in his last year in KC type player.

65. I took a slight trade back.
Aireontae Ersery
OT Minnesota
Ersery has a ton of experience, size, and length. He's sort of a OBJ type, but that may well play. If not, he'd be a candidate for RT or inside as that size and length is definitely NFL worthy.

66.
TreVeyon Henderson
RB Ohio State
I kind of wanted to wait for a RB, but he and Judkins were by far the best players on the board at this spot. I went for the more explosive player.

95.
Ozzy Trapilo
OT Boston College
This kid is going to start SOMEWHERE and be a good player. My bet is RT, but maybe guard. I'm throwing numbers at the OT position and figuring it will all work out across the line.

105.
Ashton Gillotte
EDGE Louisville
A more athletic Mike Danna-we've seen this body type work with a high motor in KC. This is a faster, twitchier model.

Chief Roundup 04-20-2025 06:21 PM

31
Walter Nolen
DL | Mississippi
A+
63
J.T. Tuimoloau
EDGE | Ohio State
A+
66
Elijah Arroyo
TE | Miami (FL)
A
95
Jalen Royals
WR | Utah State
A+
133
D.J. Giddens
RB | Kansas State
A+
226
Willie Lampkin
IOL | North Carolina
A+
251
Craig Woodson
S | California
A+
257
Nick Martin
LB | Oklahoma State

duncan_idaho 04-21-2025 09:57 AM

I just ran my first of the week on sticktothemodel.com, which is my new favorite simulator. Check it out! Customizable, good draft board, trade engine is strong and not ridiculous either way.

In this sim, we assume that the Chiefs are able to trade back with a QB-desperate team that wants a falling Jaxson Dart, desperately. They are able to work the Saints and Giants against each other and get an above-fair-value return for 1.31 from New York.

2.34 (Trade: 1.31 for 2.34, 3.65) Josh Conerly, Jr., LT, Oregon.
Though Conerly needs to improve his strength, with the way this board fell he was the best value at this spot. Also considered Luther Burder, WR, Missouri, and J.T. Tuimolau, DE, Ohio State. Harmon, Grant, Nolen were all of the board at 31, as was Simmons (though I would never have picked that dude, as is probably obvious at this point.)

2.63 Jalen Royals, WR, Utah State.
I've become a large fan of Royals, whose twitch and quickness match the KC offense, and who has enough size to play the X role opposite Worthy at the Z and Rice at the Y.

3.65 Jordan Burch, DE, Oregon.
Really liking Burch of late. The size/speed/athleticism/strength are a rare combo. He's big like a Spags DE, but has a lot more twitch and bend. Gimme.

3.66 Deone Walker, DT, Kentucky.
OK, not QUITE what I was looking for at DT in this draft, but with the way the board fell, I would have had to move up in round 2 to get T.J. Sanders, and I didn't like that cost. Walker is a massive human with rare athleticism for his size. He needs some development, but if you get it right he could be a real difference-maker. And, at worst, I think he's a good two-gap plugger like Alfred Collins would have been.

4.112 (trade: NO, 3.95 for 112, 131) Danny Stutsman, LB, Oklahoma.
Options at 95 were really limited to RB, and in this environment I felt good getting value later (sobs as he stares at Bhayshul Tuten). This deal was offered by the Saints, who came up to get an IOL. In Stutsman, I think that's a LB tailor-made for KC. Size, athleticism, noted intelligence. Should be able to handle the WILL nicely, and also be a nice backup green-dot option for Nick Bolton.

4.131 (trade: NO, 3.95 for 112, 131) Caleb Rogers, IOL, Texas Tech.
The second piece of the trade-down from 95, Rogers is a converted T with the athleticism to be a nice fit at LG in the future. Just adding to depth, but he does have starter upside, IMO.

4.133 Trevor Etienne, RB, Georgia
Was hoping I might be able to snag Giddens here, but he was gone. Happy with Etienne, who is a really nice fit in KC's offense as the 3rd down back/receiving back.

7.226 Jason Marshall, Jr., CB, Florida
Marshall is a player I've thought was a KC-style CB. He has all the tools KC likes - size, speed, leaping ability - but has been developed poorly by the Florida coaching circus during his time in Gainesville. I see a guy with the tools that KC's excellent coaching staff can do something with. And with McDuffie, Watson, Fulton, and Williams all in KC for 2025, the Chiefs have some time here. Maybe they get Marshall to start realizing his potential, and when Watson and Williams walk after this year, Marshall is ready to step in?

7.251 Luke Lachey, TE, Iowa.
Speaking of players with whom I've long been enamored, haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaave you met Luke? Lachey is intriguing, with some legit receiving skills. Not sure his athleticism has ever gotten back to what it was as a sophomore, but it's worth a stab this late, IMO.

7.226 Dante Trader, Jr, S, Maryland
Just a DB depth pick. There probably is a more athletic fit somewhere KC would take at this spot instead.

Post-mock depth chart:

QB: Mahomes/Minshew (Oladukon, PS)
RB: Pacheco/Hunt/Etienne (Mitchell can't stay healthy in TC and is cut; Steele to PS)
WR: Rice, Worthy, Brown/Royals, Smith-Schuster, Remigio (Skyy Moore is cut)
TE: Kelce/Gray/Hendershot (Wiley starts year on PUP, Lachey to PS)
OT: Moore, Taylor, Conerly, Morris
OG: Suamataia, Smith/Nourzad, Caliendo, Rogers,
C: Humphrey/Hanson

Offense:25 players

DE: Omenihu, Karlaftis/Anudike-Uzomah, Danna, Burch(Robinson, Harring, Thompson to PS)
DT: Jones, Pennel/Tillery, Walker, (yet-to-be-signed FA to PS)

LB: Bolton, Tranquill, Chenal/ Stutsman, Cochrane, Jones

CB: McDuffie, Watson, Fulton/Williams, Johnson, Roland-Wallace (for ST) (Marshall to PS)
S: Hicks, Cook/Conner, Edwards (Trader to PS)

Defense: 25

K: Butker
P: Araiza
LS: Winchester

There's my final 53. Can certainly quibble over a few spots at the end of the depth chart and who they would keep/who would hit the PS.

Snerd 04-21-2025 11:35 AM

I would take that draft for sure. I like Marshall as well. I take him in pretty much every mock draft because he's always available late, and he does sound like a Spags CB.

DJ's left nut 04-21-2025 03:58 PM

Oh, I do like that simulator a fair bit.

I decided to take a trade down to see what happened and immediately got kicked HARD in the juevos. There were probably 5 guys I liked, figured one of 'em would fall and Denver offered me 49 and 51 for 31.

Ouch. don't do that, Verch.

49: Tuimoloau
51: Savailinaea
63: Norman-Lott
66: Jalen Royals
95: Vernon Broughton
133: DJ Giddins

I don't go beyond 4 these days out of boredom.

That would be a solid haul, don't get me wrong. Just not much that really jumps out as remarkable to me.

kccrow 04-21-2025 06:53 PM

Nice find duncan.

I ran one, turned down the Randomness to 1, Trade Frequency down to 2, Need Value Balance up to 5, and got this:

1-031 - Josh Conerly Jr, OT, Oregon
2-063 - Jaylin Noel, WR, Iowa State
3-073 - Joshua Farmer, DT, Florida State (traded down with NYJ from 66 for 73 and 110)
3-095 - Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee
4-110 - Barrett Carter, LB, Clemson
4-133 - Dorian Strong, CB, Virginia Tech
7-226 - C.J. Dippre, TE, Alabama
7-251 - Bryce Cabeldue, OG, Kansas
7-256 - Xavier Carlton, DE, California


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