Don’t think that played out quite the way they wanted. I think they badly wanted a few hitters and got sniped.

If they’re going to go pitching heavy, I’d prefer it be college arms at least, vs projectable HS arms, which are the lowest success rate.

If they get 2 middle of the rotation guys and a bullpen arm out of that I would be estatic.

What's your evidence?

Market efficiencies teach us that once everyone starts thinking asyou do, the value shifts the other way.

High end hitting prospects have a much better rate of making it than pitchers do, the Cubs are an example of a team that has used basically every high pick they've had to draft hitters over pitchers.

In the history of the draft post 1965. From there, let's determine the percentage of hitters and pitchers who went from first-round picks to the major leagues. That table looks like this:

A tie!

If we're not rounding, though, position players have a slight edge at 59.3 percent, compared to 58.7 percent for pitchers. So maybe hurlers aren't that much riskier after all, at least when it comes to turning a first-round selection into a big leaguer.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-round-targets

I think it's more of a statement on the minor system. We've traded off a lot of arms recently to acquire players, and now they are trying to restock a position which has been depleted. Sean Maneaa, Mike Montgomery, Brandon Finnegan, Matt Strahm...

You can't just offload a bunch of talent at one position and not figure out a way to replace the talent you gave up.

Plus we still have the rest of the draft, trades, and international signings. I imagine we'll have added quite a few hitting prospects by the end of July.

If you’re drafting at the top end, I like that philosophy. When you’re lower - middle to end of the draft - you just kind of have to see it play out and take the best guys on your board.

the Cubs were 6th, 7th, 2nd, 2nd, and 8th to get Baez, Almora, Bryant, Schwarber and Happ.

I could have seen Groshans or Adams had they made it to Kc, but they didn’t, so...

Y'all murdered that first round.

Singer and Kowar...shite. That's impressive as hell. There are medical concerns with Singer and just funky mechanics concerns with Kowar but the Royals got both of them when all appearances were that they could potentially get neither.

Gorman would've been a great pick for them as well but Singer has genuine ace potential so I can definitely see why they went that route instead. I wonder if they'd have taken Gorman if they knew that Kowar would fall. But either way, nothing to complain about here for you fellas - those are outstanding picks.

I’m pleased with it. Not sure Singer’s quite a 1 - will need to really refine the changeup - but I can see a good #2 or really good #3 type.

Kowar has higher upside if he can pick up a consistent feel for his curveball. Very-Wacha like, though I think his velocity is a little better coming out of college.

Only quibble is that I would have loved to nab Nick Schnell in the comp round, too. Damn Devil Rays!

No, it's not. DM himself admitted there's a run on position players which proves there's a market shift. We just found the inefficiency, whether DM knows it.

I'm fine with being relatively conservative and doing what we did. The next 2-3 years with top 5-10 picks is hopefully when we can add some elite high ceiling talent.

Spit-balling in the Cardinals thread and thought about you fellas.

Victor Robles, Luis Garcia (super young, super toolsy infielder with a development curve that slots him in perfectly around Mondesi and as a Whit replacement) and Raudy Reed (solid defensive C presently suspended for PEDs but appears to have solid offensive potential) for Perez and Herrera.

The nats have a handful of pretty interchangeable C prospects with Read, Severino, Gushue and Reetz so I don't think the 'who' on that 3rd piece matters much.

Would it take Robles and Kieboom? I stumbled onto Kieboom while I was watching Soto rocket through the system and am pretty sold on him as a long-term asset. With Turner already in Washington, he may be blocked.

If you can get Robles and Kieboom, you have to do that, right? I'd honestly be a little surprised if the Nats gave up that much but they might be desperate to capitalize on Harper's potentially last ride.

*** Official 2018 Royals Repository ***
 

I’d gladly do it for Robles and Garcia. If they want Merrifield, would throw him in and ask for Kieboom, too.

Kieboom was frequently mentioned as a trade target in last year’s Royals thread (by me).

It’s worth mentioning that they have talked with the Nats about Robles before. Almost had a deal for him in 2016.

Yeah, Kieboom wasn't on my radar at all (Soto was though). And as I was watching Soto and mostly just laughing at how badly he was wrecking everyone, I noticed this Kieboom guy also playing really well.

It would be a balls or bust move for the Nationals, man. I mean they could theoretically lose Harper and STILL have one of the top 5 OFs in baseball by 2020 with Robles, Eaton and Soto out there. With Scherzer, Strasburg and Turner still having gas in the tank, maybe Rendon goes back to 2b and Kieboom makes his way to 3b. That's still a team that could contend.

But that Braves system has to get teams with a 'win now' window pretty damn nervous. Do you try to 'out-youth' the Braves via a re-load or push in, get your ring and let Ted Lerner die in peace?

But hey, if we know anything, it's that Rizzo will do the wrong thing and then get extended for it. That guy is the Mike Matheny of general managers. That's a Teflon sumbitch to be sure.