Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012
nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.
After Week 3 As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%. The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post. Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver. Midway through Week 12 We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick. We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time. The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs. Midway through week 13 As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick: KC 55% Jax 24% Oakland 15% Philly 4% Field 2% Midway through week 14 KC 55% Jax 31% Oakland 14% Only 3 with decent odds. Midway through week 15 KC 70% Jac 30% Oakland <<1% KC guaranteed a top 3 spot Midway through week 16 KC 92% Jax 8% Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties). |
1 Attachment(s)
Win distribution after week 3:
|
1 Attachment(s)
Draft odds after week 3:
|
ummmmm....
D) All of the above? |
Hmmm. That second one is a little lopsided for my taste. Looks like it has a pretty nasty mole, too.
FAX |
Our odds of making the playoffs are lower than Cassel's odds of beating playoff teams.
Sounds about right, since he would have to beat multiple playoff teams in order for us to make the playoffs! |
What are the odds that we draft a QB in the first rnd...?
Can your calculator do that...? |
Quote:
|
Oh ... I get it now. Each graph is only for KC. I couldn't figure it out at first on account of all the team names on the left.
So, the most probable scenario at this point is 6 "additional" wins or 6 "total" wins? FAX |
Quote:
|
I'm on the one in fifteeno for Geno wagon
|
Can you do San Diego if you have time? Thanks.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
FAX |
I struggle with graph reading, so correct me if I'm wrong.
The odds suggest at this point that the Chiefs are most likely to draft number 6 overall? |
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:04 AM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.