6-10 Team with Chase Daniel
 

Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests.


We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance.


While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.

You'd be hard pressed to convince me that Chase couldn't do anything Alex did this season.

Nobody on any NFL team is more popular than the backup quarterback.

Any qb can play this offense.
Any claim to fame about Daniel in this offense is basically reeruned. 5 visits to the red zone and 1 TD.
Nothing to crow about for Daniel other than he can fill in adequately for this teams game manager.

I agree with this mostly. The one exception is the Buffalo game. I think Smith won that game for us. It was the perfect game for his non turnover and risk averse nature paid off huge.

I'm not convincing anyone of anything, I'm simply posting the data.

If you believe Chase Daniel could run a full season with a 93 rating though, I'll find that extremely doubtful and nobody in the League would likely agree.

Well, for Packers fans, I think it's...
Favorite player: Aaron Rodgers
2nd favorite player: One legged Aaron Rodgers

Daniel didn't have a very good game, but I do think its hard to step in and play at a high level when you don't even know you are starting until a few days before the game.

I remember that Buffalo game being won by fantastic play out of Ron Parker, only to see him get turned to burnt toast the rest of the season. I honestly have no memory of Alex's performance that game.

Daniel's first start of the year with less than a week of preparation > Smith's first start of the year with a full offseason.

With the limited practice days and times allowed, I wonder how many minutes of 1st team practice snaps he even got to take?

95% of the production for 25% the price.

My thoughts too when I heard that. I figured it was probably being said here too. Alex' rating the past 4 years has been pretty stout and is probably adding 2 full wins to our season records vs an average QB.

Except not even close.

Pretty much.

He has the same arm and running ability, but way more guts.