AFC Stock Up / Stock Down, Post-Free Agency
 

Let's discuss how we think each AFC team has done so far this offseason and if they project as better, worse, or about the same entering the draft (where the champion of the conference will ultimately be determined)

AFC West

Chiefs: Better. My main reason actually has a lot to do with how much bad luck the offense had last year - it would be hard not to improve based on that alone. But it appears LT has some stability, although I'm not sure they're done adding there. The WR trio is one of the best in all of football, though they've yet to play a game together. The Fulton signing is my favorite because it's a force multiplier, allowing Trent to go back to the Star/Nickel role where he can impact games at an elite level and Connor plays Safety. We're a Charles Omenihu away from being in a really great spot entering the draft.

Chargers: Same. Feels like much the same team with the same limitations that will get them bounced in January. They're trying to do it the right way though, building through the draft. May be some short term pain for some long term gain. They need more speed on O.

Broncos: Better. Hate to say that I largely really like what Payton has done so far. They're rolling the dice on some ex-49ers with health question marks, but the defense is set up to be top-five once again. Nix and how he handles the sophomore year is critical, but this looks like a sure-fire playoff team.

Raiders: Better. This is only about the QB, by getting Geno they HAVE to be better. Still not ready to compete at the highest level and won't be for awhile.

AFC East

Bills: Slightly better. This one could easily be "worse" once Joey Bosa has his inevitable long-term injury. Beane did his normal thing, kept his own guys on reasonable contracts. I don't love switching Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins out for Josh Palmer, but maybe I'm stupid. Overall they're betting that their core guys can finally get it done in Jan. Must have a great draft.

Patriots: Much better. Look, they've paid out the nose and a lot of these deals won't age well. But they are much better on paper with these new players. They will win at minimum three more games this yr under Vrabel. If Maye is legit, they are wild card contenders.

Dolphins: Worse. A lot of bad contracts are finally catching up to them. Mike McDaniels days are numbered, just like Tyreek's.

Jets: Worse. Coaching may get them further along this year, but the roster is not any better. I'm not a Justin Fields believer. This team won't be in the playoffs, AGAIN.

AFC North

Ravens: Same. Their only addition is Hopkins, but they kept the Left Tackle. Haven't lost anyone of consequence. This is as same as same gets. Great organization will probably have a nice draft and be right back in the playoffs.

Steelers: Better. Rodgers will be an improvement when he inevitably signs here. Love the Metcalf addition, knocks Pickens down a peg. They'll still struggle to win a playoff game however, if they make it.

Bengals Worse. I'm dying on the hill that they're using the wrong scape goats. Lou Anarumo was the biggest reason for their deep playoff runs, and they didn't continue to give him the requisite talent to succeed. Now, they're putting all their eggs into the same basket that hasn't got it done yet. Burrow will get his stats, but this defense will stink. If Hendrickson walks, they miss the playoffs again.

Browns Better. Kept Myles Garrett and will most definitely improve at QB. Could contend for playoffs as they seem so unpredictable year to year.

AFC South

Texans: Worse. Traded away Tunsil, that alone makes it this for now. I do like the depth they've added on DL, as they will need to draft offense if they want to fix last year's woes and get Stroud back on track.

Jaguars Same. Nothing really to note here. Still a lacking roster that will bank on coaching to maximize Trevor and contend in the worst AFC division.

Titans Same. Dan Moore was an overpay, but does raise the floor of the offense. QB is the ?. I foresee this being the last year of Brian Callahan before Mike Borgonzi might just try to pluck Steve Spagnuolo from us.

Colts Slightly better. I like the adds of Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum in a secondary that really needed some dogs back there. QB is still going to hold them back and finally end the Chris Ballard era next January.

Far too much projection to assume the Chiefs got better, IMO.

We lost an elite LG who will now be replaced by a total question mark. Our new LT is a backup who looked decent in spot duty. We lost a good S and a good, versatile DE. We lost two reliable, if unspectacular, RBs. We also lost a ton of snaps in the WR room, though I am counting that as a win. I think we need new blood there.

Thuney was our best OL. An All-Pro future HOF. Best LG in football.

Sure they added a couple of nice vet players and a lottery ticket LT, but they objectively got slightly worse on paper losing a legit blue chip player.

Doesn’t mean they won’t be better overall after the draft. But shit man. This team won 15 games. Hard to match that every year.

Chiefs are up, everyone else down IMO

They lost Thuney, OK

They’re also getting a #1 WR and the LT was a traffic cone for much of the year.

How many teams are getting that?

It's also for a team that was the 1 seed and has been to the Super Bowl 3 years in a row. Not looking for a roster overhaul. Most of those other teams are.

That's a lot better than what we had last year. It's not ideal, but definitely better, or at least we're hoping it is.

And my thing is, yeah we were 15-1, but that was a TOUGH 15-1.

I’ll take 12-13 wins with an offense that’s much more stable and in-sync every single time. It’s incredible what they did last year, but that was on sheer drive for the threepeat. In a lot of ways, the 2022 team was better and that’s something I think they can get back closer to even it’s a 12-5, 13-4 team.

Jags are definitely worse. They ****ing suck

Meh, if Moore is even average, Rice stays healthy, and Worthy takes even a small step forward our offense is going to be at another level compared to last season. Especially if we draft a legit RB.

The left side of the line is legitimately a question mark rn, though. I still need to see each teams draft before I really feel comfortable projecting records and all that.

Jaguars and Titans gotta be two of the favorites in the Archie Manning sweepstakes.

giants????

Just from the AFC South. Thought I specified that but didn't.

If you’re counting Rashee’s return then that helps your case but we have to note that he’s still coming off of injury and facing possible suspension.

We’ve lost about 1,000 snaps from the RB room, another 1,000 at S losing J Reid, 900 at DT losing Wharton and probably Nnadi, and another 200+ from a really good situational pass rusher in Omenihu.

We don’t really have any in-house answers for those losses outside of Hicks. Even that makes us worse, IMO, as we’re now that much thinner at the position.

I’m just not sure we can realistically expect the kinds of performances we’ve grown accustomed to lately from a bunch of rookies and second-wave FAs.


That’s what I’m getting at. I’m optimistic about Moore at LT but being realistic, he could crash and burn. As could Kingsley at LG. That entire left side of the line is a complete unknown.

tbh it wouldnt shock me if the jags won 9-10 games this year. i dont think their roster is even close to as bad as a team like Tennessee or the NYG. I just think they had a no good horrible year and that they’ll turn back into more of the bubble team they were the two years prior. Also think Cohen could be pretty decent but we’ll see, he could definitely turn out to be shit.