Stocks
 

We have threads about every other topic, so why not one on stocks? I'm sure there are others on here who dabble in the market, although it's been beaten down pretty hard the past few weeks/months.

What stocks have caught your attention lately?

For me, I've become intrigued by Blockbuster (BBI) since they released their impressive 4th quarter earnings. I think they are a much better value than Netlflix and the positive report is even more impressive considering they paid down 5% of their outstanding debt and closed 500+ underperforming stores. That said, there's still risk involved in any stock trading around 3 bucks.

I don't know. Look how down music sales are now that you don't need to purchase a physical product to have the merchandise. I'd bet that Blockbuster has more brand name recognition than any other renter but they've also got the ancle weight of their product renting less and less on the shelves.

Netflix seems to be growing as needed while BB has to cut/shrink as needed.

On the other hand if they can adapt well and dominate the way they did in the brick-n-mortar stores $3 stocks now are a steal...

My broker told me JDS Uniphase is THE stock you want. Unfortunately that was in 2000 when it was nearly 90 bucks.. now (if it's even trading anymore) it's less than $1 :banghead: I think rain man made the same mistake as me IIRC . Oh well you win some you lose some.. I'm still waiting to win some however..

Amcol looks very good to me though..

Stocks-sometimes they go UP and sometimes they go DOWN

Wait, did you ask Mecca?...

Very good points. I will say that I think Netflix, Redbox, etc have taken their toll on Blockbuster by now. Anyone that wants to rent movies that way probably does it at this point. Also, Blockbuster's largest direct competitor, Movie Gallery, recently declared bankruptcy and will close 900+ stores this year.

Let's hear some more recommendations.

might be a good time to get some chipotle stock
gold stocks appear to be moving steadily upward
i think i'll get into the commodities market soon, lots of learning to do

ROFL

I hear that he triples as a stock advisor in addition to being a draft guru and NFL Scout.

You left out hand model.

As a former employee of Movie gallery they are a doomed venture. They are everything that is wrong with being coorporate and nothing right (read: making money.)

When I was a GM (only 9 months) they completely ignored what generated the local revenue (porn and older, classic movies) and demanded all stores adopt the same look, inventory, emphasis, etc.

Even as a n00b in management I could see they were set up to lose money and had two regional GM's (read: competant ones) hired away by BB for much more money...

For fast growth these commodity stock/mutual funds look positive:

KGC
AEM
TGLDX

For long term steady and relatively safe growth I recommend the following diversified Mutual fund

PRPFX

for reasons i wont get into i will suggest LM (legg Mason)

only thing i will say is that its near 52 week lows...check there books..set for growth big time....

id Concur, netflix seems to have the edge and there brand recognition is more apparent today than BB IMHO. i mena how often do you ever see a blockbuster add? you cant go three URL's on the web without seeing a netflix add

I am buying the first stock in the first Legal Weed dealer in the US.

Should go sky HIGH!

So we have hats in the ring for either statistical convergence or insider trading.

Both are solid arguments...

It's always easier to come up with a new business model than to find the perfect tweak for a failing one...

Thanks for the tip, I am definitely looking at it.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/s...e?symbol=fsenx

I bought this 3 years ago and I double my investment. You will never complain about paying out the a$$ for gas again.

I hate brokers, mine screwed me over a few times. In 1998 he talked me into buying Microsoft and I sold that at a loss last year, only 1 dividend the entire time. He talked me out of a stock that would have made me some good money too. ED Jones can kiss my butt

Bank of America - It's one of the few banks who haven't lost money in any quarter during the downturn but their price is in the mid 30's. They don't have a lot of bad paper and they pay a .64cents per share dividend.

<----SHUNDED-ED...

????

Last week, March 6th, the American Cancer society released this article, intentionally after the market had closed.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/tic...58&Symbol=EXAS

Ok, maybe not the most glamorous stock pick, but we want to make money, right?

I checked out the price of the stock it was talking about EXAS and it was around 2.00 a share. Cheap for any and all. I could see the money on this one going up the following day after this news.

The next day it was over 3.50. 150 percent in one day. Hey thats not bad. This stock to me is just a hit and run. Make your money then get out.

Theres money to be made out there, you just have to be careful these days.

Lending-club or one of those types of sites looks a lot more enticing than this stock market. As for tips, can't believe no one has said this, buy low sell high! Glad I could get that one in.

Commodities may be where it is at. This summer, wheat was at 4.50, and late last month it was above 14. Too bad I sold mine @ 4.50. :cuss:

I've heard a few places suggest that when the market stalls, certain commodities can really cash in for you. But trading them is a whole new ballgame.

is anybody making money right now?
I guess just the day traders who get lucky with a pick, but that's about betting on dice these days. My heavily diversified and balanced portfolio is down -6% this year.

I own Kinross since they bought out a gold miner I owned a couple of years ago. It's had a very nice run and I'm looking for more.

If someone wants a pure commodity play I'd suggest an ETF for whatever you're interested in. One ETF for a play on gold is GLD. It tracks the price of gold and is very liquid. There are agriculture ETFs for a play on the rising prices on of a mix of grains. Do some research and invest in something you know about (maybe the industry you work in).

I think everyone is taking a hit right now. I have some gold and silver mining stocks that have doubled since this time last year. And still going steady.

But the mutual funds are all down. Best advise is be diversified.

Im thinking of taking a couple of my mutual funds and selling them. Keep the money in reserve, until the economic outlook is better. Yesterday in the news most of the economists agree we are heading into a recession (newsflash):shake:, . Any opinions on if i should or shouldn't do that?

Thats a good pick also. I looked into that one but stuck with GG. Can't go wrong with either.

i work for Sprint ;)

all i mean is i pass the word along when one blows my way

QFT my friend ... QFT

The best (amateur) advice I would give is.

1. Don't by Enron. :D

2. As the baby boomer's age, medical funds are a must in your portfolio.

Best thing is to invest in mutual funds at the moment. Wait till the economy picks up, it's too scary right now to really know what to invest in.

fyp based on recent events

:sulk:

I thought the title was "steaks".

How long would you be able to leave the money alone? If your thinking 10-15+ years, then mutual funds are on sale right now. Short-term hiccups are irrelevant to me, I'm trying to scrounge up extra money to dump into my portfolio. When everyone is panicked and negative is when you are generally supposed to buy in, but human nature prevents us from doing that.

As long as you have money in everything (large, mid, and small; value and growth; foreign and domestic; etc) then youll be fine. If your going to wait it out because you think stocks and mutual funds are still going down, then you go from being an investor to being a market timer. Even if you are right, you still have another timing decision to make: when do you get back in? When stocks recover, they dont do it slowly, and if your late getting back in by a week or two, you miss out on a huge chunk of gain.

Another common misconception is the thought that after we do go into a recession (or merely a period of weak growth), many people think that stocks will then go down because of that.

Thats not really true, because the market does not wait for long-expected events to happen, they anticipate future events. It's already been priced in, the stock market got hammered this year already because the market thinks we will go into a recession. If that happens, it wont be news. What would be news is that the assumption was wrong and we didnt go into a recession (huge rally), or after the recession is "official", whether it will continue for a full year or end after only a couple quarters. That would be news.

If you are selling or staying out, you arent betting on us going into a recession, because its too late for that, thats already been priced into the market. If you wanted to bet on a recession, you needed to sell about 4-6 months ago. By selling/staying out now, you would be betting that we stay in a huge recession for a year or longer. If we get the news in 3 months that a recession did in fact occur but the analysts decide its going to be a short recession, the market would price that expectation in for a big jump in spite of the fact that the good news hasnt officially happened yet.

All of that is only relevant to market timers, of course. If your going to be a long-term buy and hold investor with more than 10-15 years remaining till retirement, you shouldnt really care about this minute-by-minute short-term stuff unless you think the US will be in the toilet in 15 years.

i think it really depends on how soon we hit trough.

I agree that the market anticipates the economy down the road, but we're in an unprecedented mess that is really negative. Here's what I'm hearing by respected financial advisers. That eliminates anyone on CNBC or any "financial planner" that's been drinking the Wall St. Kool-Aid.

1) The dollar is going to .52 and Goldman Sachs just said $175 oil within two years. Those two go hand in hand.

2) The FED has started to monetize bankruptcy (see Bear Stearns). This could get really ugly, really fast and is VERY inflationary.

3) The credit market is much worse than the FED wants the general public to know to avoid a panic.

4) Today John Lipsky of the IMF told States to prepare for the worst due to the credit crunch.

5) On Tuesday the FED took worthless paper (subprime garbage) as collateral for $200 Billion. That was historic.

There's more but I'm out of time.

For the novice, think of the credit crunch as this. You have stock certificates of several companies in hand. When you bought the stocks they were worth $1000 total. Later you find out that the stocks weren't what you (or the market) thought they were. Now, no one has any idea what you own and it's probably worth alot less. You go to sell the stocks and there are no buyers (or they're offering $50) BUT YOU NEED CASH TO PAY YOUR BILLS and $50 doesn't come close to your needs. That's why all these banks need CASH from the FED. They're holding worthless paper and will go bankrupt without free money from the FED (paid by you with the hidden tax called inflation).

That's simplistic but hopefully it's helpful.

Edit: I said the FED took garbage collateral in exchange for $200 million. That should be $200 BILLION.

so make a run on the banks and invest in GE NOW?

if oil goes to 175 and prices get above 4.35 oil will get closer to rendering its self useless. Trust me if I lose my job (knock on wood) i wont buy gas...and as the rest of the world his recession neither will they. the oil is a bubble.. it will burst...not this year (depending on whom gets elected maybe mid 09)

times wont get that bad b/c the FED cannot simply stand around and put on magic sunglasses that makes inflation invisible to them. What WILL happen will be either be a correction sooner than later thus everything can begin to finally work itself out. or the FED will have no choice but to begin raising rates which initially will hurt the economy and help it at the same time as inflation will begin to fall and the oil bubble will burst.

the only reason for high prices would be a SEVERE lacking of oil...along the lines of PEAK OIL which IMHO already happened. When supplies are then "truly" constrained by means other than political jargon and conjecture then prices will be high. However, as OPEC continues to preach an over abundance of oil the fact remains that what goes up must come down. The speculators will loose BILLIONS and then the sun will rise and life will continue.

i like you reply, but that runs a fine line of worse case scenario (however likely it may be) if the general public builds concensus that what you stated was going to happen then it would be dire straits indeed :huh:

Rep for good response Stewie! :thumb:

Why would $175/bbl matter? $111 oil hasn't stopped anyone from buying.

The FED isn't standing around. The problem is they have no control over the credit crisis and can do nothing but bail out banks. That doesn't solve the problem. Yes, the markets will eventually work themselves out, but that could be a LONG way down the road. There are periods in history when the markets didn't make a penny for years and years.

[QUOTE=Stewie;4631346]Why would $175/bbl matter? $111 oil hasn't stopped anyone from buying.

QUOTE]

it hasn't?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/12/mark..._eia/index.htm

quote "Since September, gasoline stockpiles have increased from a 16 million barrel deficit to a 22 million barrel surplus, which Schork believes is due primarily to the continuing low demand for gasoline. "

:hmmm:

i agree with everything but that initial statement. The only thing blowing this bubble up is spec-u-lay-tors global demand and forecasts are on the decline my friend. OPEC and or the speculators need to reexamine a supply and demand graph. they are no where near equilibrium.

[quote=xbarretx;4631360]You're confusing gasoline with crude. Gasoline stockpiles have to do with refinery capacity and can fluctuate wildly. I would question Mr. Schork's opinion that it's due to low demand. And the real reason oil is at $111/bbl is because the dollar has dropped like a stone. Crude is much cheaper if you're buying in Euros or other currencies.

[QUOTE=Stewie;4631379]tis true but form the consumers stand point Gas is what we really care about. i could do with less plastic and petroleum refined products providing i can afford to get to and from work.

make no mistake stew, i agree with you however i dont buy that oil is this high for a reason. thats all bro :toast: too much discussion regarding oil anyways it makes my hair turn white and im only 28..... ;)

we can at least agree that were continuing to float up sh%t creek without a paddle. LMAO ... uh i mean :deevee:

I think that the market will reach 11,000 or 10,500 before if stalls around and the economy starts perking up. I also hope that my job won't in jeopardy as it gets worse.

Seems like there are no guarantee when it comes to keeping a job these days.

Good thoughts in this thread guys!

I'd say I'm on the side of Stewie when it comes to economic outlook. I am not teh smart, but I think that the economy hasn't been allowed to correct itself with the fed trying to prop it up. I'm all for the fed doing small things to take the edge off the bottom, but I believe they have been trying to reverse corrections, and that they have also reached the extent of their pull on the economy until a correction occurs. IIRC it is called stagflation, but I don't have time to look it up. Some other folks I read have been suggesting similar corrections, but their analysis is based on cyclical stuff that I don't understand well. JMHO

Keep up the good discussion!

Well, this thread certainly has taken a turn for the depressing.......

My internship search is going bad enough, I don't need to hear more about how shitty the economy is on here. :doh!:

just for the record.....im piss drunk off "strongbow" :p

however, while the economic outlook is down right sh1tty.....there are some seriously good opp's in the works. wait till you feel the market has just about reached its bottom (or the USD for that matter) then BUY mother F***ing BUY. :toast:

stagflation = recession plus inflation. no need to look it up, thats my lamens answer. :)

i think the fed is makign things worse but thats just my HO. regardless, great discussion :clap: its good to have one without worrying about being flamed to death ;)

Would like to know how the outlook would look for Garmin (GRMN)

Don't buy any ILA.

well heres my two cents..

#1 YoY they've had roughly an 80% increase in NET INCOME.
#2 looking at there books tells me to that there spending a lot of monies (investing and taking on some debt)

both of those to me look very promising as i understand that companies need to spend money to make it and money sitting around the house wont grow. Also we all noticed that Garmin is doing some serious adding on to there current location (assuming you drive in Olathe)

#3 given the state of the economy and auto sales i view GPS as a "want" and not a "need" i think this year to say the least will be lack luster as they continue to skid towards a 52 week low....

short term investment for GRMN = BAD as i dont think theyve bottomed out just yet.
long term (depending on when we hit trough in the comming recession...) = GREAT

grmn has been a strong company almost like clockwork however stagflation begins to take it toal.

p.s. yes i understand that theres way more involved in picking stocks then the above mentioned items....however im not into investing and can only offer what i know from work/life/class experience. also its midnight and im f'n tired so forgive my lazyness :huh:

Hope no one had big money in Bear Stearns.....yikes.

A buddy of mine is supposed to intern with them this summer, I bet he was shitting bricks with the news on Friday.

I keep thinking we've hit the bottom on financials and it's time to get back in, but then more bad news comes out.

Remember recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle and they happen on average about every five years. Recessions are also relatively short averaging a little over 10 months; we have been in one since October. Many people say that once you know your in a recession it is already over. In times like these I am reminded of a Warren Buffet quote "when people are fearful, I am greedy"

The reality is that for the long term investor times like these can be a very good time to add money. By the time we wait until the economic outlook is "more positive" we will miss a big rebound.

Some stocks that I like right now:
ABK: AAA rating affirmed last week, beaten down big time,
AIG: One of the worlds largest insurers, at or near lows for the year had some negative news a few weeks back; market overreacted a bit.
DHI: U.S. largest homebuilder; obviously an industry that has had some troubles over the last couple of years. Very strong balance sheet and should be able to rebound nicely when outlook improves.
DRE: One of the biggest REITS; much like DHI good company in struggling industry when markets turn around should be in good position. Also pays strong dividend.

It would take some balls to invest in ABK or AIG right now. ABK is on the brink of bankruptcy. Don't read anything into AAA ratings. Those ratings have been exposed for being fraudulent and is the crux of the credit crunch right now. AIG also has exposure to OTC derivatives which can bring a company to its knees over night. Bears Stearns learned that last week. They were financially solid on Wednesday and bankrupt on Friday.

Home builders and REITS. There are better places to be.