College stats don't lie (QB's)
 

There are plenty of numbers bandied about at NFL draft time -- 40-yard dash times, bench press reps, vertical jump heights and even Wonderlic test results.

All are familiar to most NFL fans. And yet, we rarely hear experts mention a player's college statistics. Most fans assume college stats are not accurate predictors of NFL performance.

That's not always the case. My research of highly drafted quarterbacks since 1996 found that two college statistics adequately predict future NFL performance: games started and completion percentage. In fact, where a quarterback is selected in the draft has virtually no bearing on his NFL success. Games started and completion percentage are far better than the scouts at determining how good a player will be.

Over the past 12 years, teams have repeatedly drafted players who haven't shown the ability to consistently complete passes at the college level, and these players have consistently failed. For some reason, scouts expected players such as Kyle Boller (48 percent), Jim Druckenmiller (54 percent) and Ryan Leaf (54 percent) to suddenly figure out how to complete passes once they hit the NFL. Having a high completion percentage (60 percent or higher) is no guarantee of success, especially if it was done in a small number of games in a fluky system (Tim Couch being a strong example), but it is a prerequisite for it.

As to why games started should be an indicator of NFL success, there is a fairly obvious explanation -- good players start games. No one knows a player better than his coach, and if a coach decides he's good enough to start as a freshman, that's a good sign. Playing time also provides experience, which is crucial to the development of a young quarterback.

However, there is a more complex reason why games started is an important indicator. In general, NFL scouts do an excellent job of talent evaluation when they have enough information. The more film that exists of a player, the easier it is to find weaknesses. When scouts don't get sufficient information, they place too much weight on "measurables" and off-field workouts, and make mistakes like Couch, Leaf or Akili Smith.

Sometimes, when a player starts a lot of games, scouts have enough film to figure out that he is truly a "system quarterback," and not an NFL prospect. That's why Kliff Kingsbury and Chris Leak were not drafted high despite strong college numbers. Because of the assumption that scouts can do their job with the right information, these projections apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first two rounds.

What does this analysis tell us about this year's crop of young quarterbacks? Let's look at the four passers likely to be chosen on the first day of the draft.

Matt Ryan (32 starts, 59.9 percent completion rate)

Ryan, likely to be the only quarterback selected in the top 10, and perhaps the whole of the first round, has great physical tools and looks the part. He stands tall in the pocket and delivers the ball with authority. However, his collegiate stats are average. The completion rate is a little less disappointing when we consider Ryan played in a downfield passing NFL-style offense for a coach who completely abandoned the running game and let Ryan throw an absurd 654 pass attempts (second-most in the nation). I'm sure facing defenses that knew Boston College was a pass-first team hurt Ryan's senior numbers. His senior completion percentage was 59 percent, but he completed 62 percent of passes the previous two years when the team was more balanced.

Nonetheless, I would be wary of guaranteeing $20 million to a guy who was not stellar in college. Statistically, the most similar recent college quarterbacks were Patrick Ramsey and Rex Grossman, who were a little worse, and Eli Manning, who was a little better. That's not a great group of comparable players, and taking Ryan in the top five is a significant risk.

Brian Brohm (33 starts, 65.8 percent completion rate)

A year ago, Brohm topped Mel Kiper's first 2008 draft board. Now it is a question whether he will even go in the first round. What changed over the last year? The answer is nothing. Brohm's weaknesses -- arm strength and mobility -- are the same as they were a year ago. So are his strengths: touch, decision-making, pocket presence and a strong work ethic. You can question his durability, but he had the same injuries in his past when he was a projected No. 1 overall pick a year ago. However, Louisville struggled this past season, finishing with a 6-6 record. So if we punished quarterback prospects because they played on bad teams, nobody in Denver would own a Jay Cutler replica jersey.

Statistically, Brohm has a profile that points to success. His 33 starts are less than stellar, and the injuries that kept him from starting more should be cause for concern, but his career completion percentage is the stuff NFL stars are made of. It is possible Brohm could fail -- maybe he'll get injured again, perhaps the completion percentage will prove to be the product of a gimmicky college offense -- but if I could pick him in the second half of the first round, I would be awfully excited about it.

Joe Flacco (26 starts, 63.4 percent completion rate)

The numbers that Flacco put up at Division I-AA Delaware are quite good. Completing 63.4 percent of passes is impressive, even against lesser competition. The problem is that Flacco ended up at Delaware in the first place, which is the same reason why he started only 26 games.

Flacco initially went to Pittsburgh. He redshirted his freshman year, and was unable to beat out Tyler Palko for the starting job after Dave Wannstedt arrived as head coach the following year. Palko went undrafted last year. If Flacco is as good as scouts believe he is, why didn't Wannstedt see that he was better than Palko? Wannstedt may not be the best coach in college football, but it is hard to believe he was that wrong.

Flacco is not a bad prospect, but seems like the kind of guy you take a flier on the second day, not someone who should be getting a multimillion-dollar signing bonus.

Chad Henne (47 starts, 59.7 percent completion rate)

Henne is the type of player scouts never miss on -- a four-year starter from an elite college program. His 59.7 percent completion rate isn't bad, but it isn't that good either. Henne never displayed the consistency of an elite quarterback while at Michigan, but he did show an NFL arm.

Henne's college stats are quite similar to those of another big-time recruit from a big-time school who had an inconsistent career -- Carson Palmer. Palmer started 45 games and completed 59.1 percent of passes, but finished on a positive note by winning the Rose Bowl and Heisman Trophy and consequently went No. 1 overall. Henne didn't finish as strong, and isn't quite as good a prospect, but isn't as far off as some might think. After a nice performance at the Senior Bowl, he seems to have an outside shot at the first round, and would be a good pick there. He is a virtual lock to be at least an above-average professional.


That speaks well to the people who like Brohm...

Is this from the football outsiders guys? I've read similar things to this before. I do a lot of that type of analysis for risk position at my job and find it very interesting and a completely different way of looking at sports.

It's actually up on ESPN.com

If we end up with any of the top 3 qb's I will be alright with that. Ryan, Brohm, Flacco...no problem unless it's with the 5th pick.

Flacco is the one I really don't want, he reminds me of all the big arm QB's that rise above where they go..

If they aren't gonna take Ryan it comes down to Brohm or Henne or no QB....hell according to that Brohm and Henne are the best guys.

I agree with this.

I agree. Flacco has a slow release as well.

To me he is Drew Bledsoe just very unpolished and unrefined, if he fixes his mechanics and footwork he becomes a poor mans Drew Bledsoe.

Yeah, it is football outsiders. They moonlighted for ESPN over the last year. They are incredibly bright guys: everything they write is based on numbers and statistical regressions. Not everything they write is right, but they get a lot more right then they get wrong.

If you like this type of analysis, I highly recommend the following book:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0452289734

Mods: I'm not pimping this book because I have an interest in it, just thought others might appreciate it.

I know I read or heard some where that Carl really likes Henne. If he is there in the 2nd round the Chiefs might grab him

I know it is impossible to do this, but I wonder what kind of numbers Ryan would have put up at LSU with the same cast Russell had?

Flacco moves a lot better than Bledsoe ever did.

:shake:

Damn, I hope not. I consider Henne the second coming of Drew Henson.

or the second coming of Tom Brady. :D

Bledsoe wasn't that immobile in his younger years......Flacco also needs to gain some weight.

Ehhh, Henson would have probably been pretty good had he not gone to play baseball for a few years. You can't really compare anyone to that situation.

I'll take our chances with Croyle....worse case, we grab a QB next year. It suppose to be a better class, IIRC.

I think for the most part this will go out the window as more college teams switch to spread offenses.

Who told you that?

Whoever it was, was lying, next year in my view is a horrible QB year.

I don't think it matters if they pick a QB or not with regard to playing Croyle this year. He is going to start and they are going to find out if he has what it takes to be an NFL QB. If they draft QB that guy is going to sit the bench at least this year.

interesting read....certainly makes a case for Brohm...

I honestly always thought NFL teams were smart enough not to judge players by their teams but in a way it does appear that Brohm and Henne, Brohm especially were downgraded for no other reason than their teams had disappointing years.

Could be very true. Nothing wrong with that. If you have the oppurtunity to nab a guy u love, you dont sit around and wait until next year. You take the guy u want.

Anyhow, Id bet that Ryan, Brohm, or Henne would give Brody a nice run for his money in training camp and pre-season.

Great read. I know I'm not allowed to make decisions on players without watching their tape and only reading about them, but this speaks well to Brohm and Henne.

What injuries has Brohm had?

That is sort of why Marino fell in 1983. Pitt's record wasn't as bad as Louisvilles this season. In fact, I think they went to the Sugar Bowl. But they still lost 2 or 3 games and his stock fell.

I totally agree and if they love Ryan then they need to pick him because the QB is the most important position on the football field.

As far as giving Brody good competition he needs it but that is not saying much since Huard out played him last year.

Thankfully teams dont listen to fans much. I remember when a good majority of the Cowboys fanbase wanted Steve Walsh over Troy Aikman in the early 90's.....ROFL

The ones he missed games with were an ACL in 05 and he tore some ligaments in his thumb in 06, he had surgery on his non throwing shoulder after this past season.

Definitely reaffirms my faith in Brohm. If we picked him at #17 I'd be okay with it, and if he fell to us at #35 I'd be ecstatic.

I thought Marino had knee problems that scared some teams away. Including us.

I'd throw stuff at my TV if we drafted Henne.

And I'm a Michigan fan.

Tell me your view, I wanna see if it's the same as mine...

Those are some decent injuries all to different areas of the body. That makes me a little wary of the guy.

He returned the season of his thumb injury.....

I don't think he's overly injury prone honestly.

Coogs:

Surely you aren't comparing Brohm to Marino?

mmaddog
*******

Well hey maybe Mmaddog here can tell us how Brohm can play some WR.

Could be. But IIRC, Pitt was sort of National Title contenders at the beginning of the season and lost a couple of times. Marino had a few INT's, and his stock fell. OTOH, Penn State went undefeated out of nowhere, and we jumped all over Blackledge.

Damit Carl! :cuss: ;)

You holding out for Todd Reesing?

Not at all. Re-read the post. Marino's stock fell because they lost a couple of games.... sort of like Brohm this season.

You know I had someone say that in all seriousness to me the other day? "I think Daniel and Reesing are better than Matt Ryan"

My brain about melted from the utter stupidity of it.

Along that logic Chase should be a high 1st QB...

Midgets don't count......and he isn't in a pro style offense like the guys listed...

It's when you compare legit prospects to each other, not just any QB.

HAHAHAHAHA

seems like to me they start off preaching cold hard stats and then spend the rest of the article rationalization that stats for the guys they like. :shrug:

Coogs.....sorry I knew better, but I was just playing out like others love to do when making a comparison like that.

mmaddog
*******

Flacco is awful. QBs that offer a bazooka arm and not much else are consistently overrated in the draft.

Joe Flacco is the Colt Griffen of NFL prospects. I'd take any of the mid-tier QBs over him.

I thought Marino's stock fell because of coke rumors...

How do you figure?

Flacco's have to be looked at subjectively because it wasn't playing good competition.

that, and his attitude turned off several teams (including the fuggin' chiefs)... he was too cocky, etc.

What about Woodson in one of the late rounds?

Woodson needs major coaching, he has awesome upside but he needs changes to his mechanics. I don't trust the Chiefs coaches to fix him properly.

Henne to me is a game manager. He has most of the physical tools you want, but whatever intangible it is that makes a quarterback a 'winner' he just doesn't have. Based on what I saw for four years, at least. That ability to carry a team when it needs it. I look at him and I see Elvis Grbac or Todd Collins or Brian Griese.

Some of that might have to go at the feet of Lloyd Carr, I think that guy was a black hole for an awful lot of talent in Ann Arbor, but even so I don't think I'd want to be a team banking on Henne to become more than he was in college.

The sad thing is, that's probably exactly the kind of quarterback that Carl and/or Herm would look for. A game manager who's tough and while he may not win you many games, he's not likely to lose many either.

I just don't think that's the kind of player you spend a high pick on.

(Now watch him become Peyton Manning...)

My dream draft (realistically speaking) would be Dorsey at #5, Brohm at #17, and Cherilus at #35.

Henne to me has the physical tools I know NFL teams like with his arm and all that..I also think he may be the victim of being over analyzed due to where he played and how long he started.

Things I really don't like about him are I think he's a little short, he has virtually no mobility. Now I've seen Michigan play a ton of times his upside is he needs a few slight tweaks with his feet and mechanics and he may look 100 times better. His weird streaky accuracy was always concerning to me he was either on fire or ice cold.

That draft rocks.

Spergon Wynn.

I don't think his height's a concern, but he can be eerily reminiscent of Drew Bledsoe.

And he's played behind Michigan o-linemen, which are generally as good as you'll find anywhere, even if the team in general is down. I'd shudder to think how many hits he'd take against an NFL defense with a sub-par line blocking for him.

He was awful under pressure but I in general chalk that up to just not being use to it or expecting it.

He reminds me quite a bit of John David Booty in many ways and that is not a good thing.

That's what I was alluding to.

I think you'd see some of the panic Croyle shows at times (which is ironic, because Croyle got hammered in college...).

On the plus side Henne isn't built like a punter atleast.

No, he's certainly shown he can take hits and has played hurt.

More qualities Herm and Carl will like.

This is scaring me the more I think about it.

Do you agree with me now about Henne? :)

I won't lie part of the reason he bugs me is he reminds me of John David Booty who I watched basically flush 2 NC's for us.

He cussed at our dumbass WRs for dropping balls and it caused our Jesus-Freak coach to flip his shit.

Nope. I may be a Jayhawk fan, but....I'm a pramatist/realist.

I'm holding out for Chase Daniel. :D



LMAO

I read it somewhere....can't remember where....

but, honestly, can it really be much worse than this year? :shrug:

QB's in next years draft are going to be guys like Tim Tebow, Matthew Stafford, Hunter Cantwell..Colt McCoy..

Does this sound like a good glass to you?

?http://www.draftking.com/nfl/2009/mockdraft.shtml

2009 NFL Mock Draft
1. Kansas City Chiefs - Tim Tebow, QB, Florida *
2. Atlanta Falcons - George Selvie, DE, USF *
3. Miami Dolphins - Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
4. Oakland Raiders - Fili Moala, DT, USC
5. San Francisco 49ers - Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland *
6. Baltimore Ravens - Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC
7. New York Jets - James Laurinaitis, ILB, Ohio State
8. Buffalo Bills - Reggie Smith, CB, Oklahoma
9. Detroit Lions - Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
10. St. Louis Rams - Max Unger, OT, Oregon
11. Carolina Panthers - Hunter Cantwell, QB, Louisville
12. Houston Texans - Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State *
13. Arizona Cardinals - Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
14. Cincinnati Bengals - Eben Britton, OT, Arizona *
15. Washington Redskins - Sean Lee, OLB, Penn State
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson *
17. Cleveland Browns - P.J. Hill, RB, Wisconsin *
18. Tennessee Titans - Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida *
19. New Orleans Saints - Gerald McRath, OLB, Southern Miss *
20. Minnesota Vikings - Demetrius Byrd, WR, LSU
21. Chicago Bears - Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois *
22. Denver Broncos - Nic Harris, FS, Oklahoma
23. Seattle Seahawks - Travis Beckum, TE, Wisconsin
24. Philadelphia Eagles - Percy Harvin, WR, Florida *
25. New York Giants - Andre Smith, OT, Alabama *
26. Pittsburgh Steelers - Andrew Gardner, OT, Georgia Tech
27. Green Bay Packers - Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia *
28. Jacksonville Jaguars - Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
29. San Diego Chargers - Arian Foster, RB, Tennessee
30. Indianapolis Colts - Demonte' Bolden, DT, Tennessee
31. Dallas Cowboys - Darry Beckwith, ILB, LSU
32. New England Patriots - Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma

I would light myself on fire if we drafted Tim Tebow. He makes Andre Ware look like Peyton Manning.

Some people don't think Brohm will go in round 1, but the guy who takes over for him for one lousy year will go at #11???

Eh....maybe not. :hmmm:

But you forgot Reesing and Daniel.... ;)

:p

I think Tebow will be better than anyone in this draft, with Stafford comparable in talent to Ryan, but they havn't even played a down. None of us know shit about what they'll become.

I thought that was odd too.

Yup. That was one.

I understand the reservations about Tebow. But, hell, from my way of thinking...by next year, he could be better than the QBs this year, except for maybe Ryan.

:shrug:

He may have the worst mechanics I've ever seen. Ever. I seriously have better mechanics than Tim Tebow, and I'm a mediocre pick up quarterback.

This is why I don't respect your opinion on football matters.

Well I think you're nuts seeing as Tebow is in the spread option under Meyer and well that did wonders for Alex Smith..

Tebow also has the worst mechanics I may have ever seen he throws like a baseball pitcher.

How many Heisman's you got though? ;)

I think the only way Tebow comes to KC is if we makes jorts part of the official uniform. If you want a big quarterback who hurls the ball like a shotput and looks to run up your centers ass, you go after Tebow. Todd Boeckman may be the best QB in next years class, and he's mediocre at best. Next years class is garbage, and if anyone thinks Chase Daniel or Todd Reesing are NFL caliber QB's, your homer goggles must be fully dialed in. Daniel might make a roster, undrafted, then play on a practice squad for a season before being cut for good and going back to CoMo to open a Chevy dealership and sell pickups to eager Mizzou fans, happy to get a handshake, a photo, and an autographed football with their brand new mistake of a vehicle.

:sulk: :p

Hey, the guy's got a great arm and he's a really good athlete, but that's not what makes an NFL QB.