Rebuild without the QB
 

So for all of you complaining about having no QB, when have the Chiefs had an actual shot at drafting a franchise QB? The only one we have had a shot at was Aaron Rodgers and he is still unproven overall. More than likely we will get their shot this April in the draft with Stafford or Bradford.

That's the risk we took with seeing if Croyle was "the guy". If he wasn't, then things would get really bad like they are now. If he was, we would be almost ready to contend after next season and the rebuilding phase would be over.

It looks to be far from that right now. :banghead:

Herm stated he didn't think last year's draft had any "franchise QBs". If Matt Ryan had fallen to us, they would have passed on him.

I do not want that dumbass picking our QBOTF. He has no eye for offensive talent. He has no clue how to utilize or even select a QB. If Herm is still here and it's his call at QB, this team is #&%#ed for the next 5-10 years.

I posted a thread a month or so ago stating why i thought the Chiefs should have selected Rodgers over DJ in 2005.


I also think the Chiefs should have tried to leap frog Atlanta to snag Ryan.

Everything begins and ends with a QB.

Every QB Carl has drafted has been a disaster. Herm's record with QBs is no better.

That's why it is critical to get these idiots fired before the draft.

This goes well beyond Herm doesn't it? Sorry, I'm not trying to defend Herm Edwards by any means. I really think Herm Edwards is to football what Hitler is to Germany. But hasn't this always been a problem with this franchise? Drafting a QB, I mean. Forgive my ignorance. I've been a big fan of the sport for a decade plus, but I've only started really getting into the nuance of the game and appreciating it on a more than superficial level in the past couple of years. And my knowledge of Chiefs history, it's only fair to say, is still pretty limited and novice. When have the Chiefs EVER been able to draft and mold a QB?

Getting rid of Herm certainly will help matters, but that's just scratching the surface. And I have no idea what the solution is. I just wonder why this has been such a hard thing for the Chiefs to do.

If we just draft QB in the first round.... that's all it would take.....

http://www.associatedcontent.com/art...bust_than.html

That article has a pretty bad selection bias.

If you extrapolate it out to include the classes with Roethlisberger, Manning, Rivers, and the Cutler, Leinart, Young class it does look quite a bit more promising.

Only one of those six is a certain bust (Young) and another one (Leinart) is a big disappointment thus far.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn...c.php?t=452945

First-round QBs aren't worth the risk

Posted: September 2, 2008

The benchings of quarterbacks Alex Smith and Matt Leinart are the most recent evidence of a point I've been making for years.

When drafting a quarterback in Round 1, proceed at your own peril. History tells us that it's a coin-flip proposition, at best. And given the big money that quarterbacks taken in round one get paid, putting millions at risk might not be a prudent gamble.

Of the 10 drafts from 1997 through 2006, 14 of 27 first-round quarterbacks were clear busts. As to several others (Chad Pennington, Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Jay Cutler), reasonable minds could differ and/or the jury is still out.

This leaves only five clear-cut franchise quarterbacks from ten drafts: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger. (Cutler will likely join that group this year.)

In contrast, franchise quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, David Garrard, Tony Romo, Marc Bulger, and Matt Hasselbeck weren't picked in Round 1.
Still, the lure of landing that franchise quarterback via the first round is strong. Strong enough to get teams like the San Francisco 49ers to make Smith the No. 1 overall pick in 2005, and for the Arizona Cardinals to take Leinart at No. 10 a year later.

Part of the problem is that non-football decisions often influence the process. Does anyone really think the Falcons' football people wanted to pick Matt Ryan third overall? That decision reeks of an ownership move aimed at erasing the memories of Michael Vick.

As a result of the imperfect nature of the draft, plenty of guys not taken high in the process have climbed the ladder to become starting quarterbacks. Indeed, 10 of the current 32 starters were drafted either after round five or not drafted at all. (The AFC has no undrafted quarterbacks who are starters, which might explain why the AFC is generally viewed as the better conference.)

This leaves only 14 first-round picks as starters, with rookie Joe Flacco recently getting the nod in Baltimore. Contributing to this dynamic is the amount of attention and pressure that lands on a first-round quarterback. The fans want to see what the kid can do, and the media will echo that sentiment by constantly clamoring for him to get onto the field. If/when the losses pile up, the coaching staff will feel compelled to comply.

But the player no longer gets five years to figure things out. Nearly four decades ago, Terry Bradshaw of the Steelers, the No. 1 overall pick in 1970, was able to sputter and spurt for several seasons until the proverbial light finally began to flicker. Today, Bradshaw would have been replacing spark plugs in Shreveport if he hadn't become a superstar by the end of year three.

The better approach, then, seems to be taking a quarterback later in the draft, allowing him to develop quietly and without scrutiny, and hoping that he'll become the next Tom Brady, Tony Romo or Kurt Warner.
Or even the next Brett Favre. Though the Packers once upon a time gave up a first-round pick to obtain his rights from the Falcons, Favre was taken in Round 2, one spot ahead of Browning Nagle.

If you're trying to remember who Browning Nagle is, then you should be agreeing with the overriding theory here -- the draft is a crapshoot, and it doesn't make sense to stake more than $50 million on what is in essence a game of poker in which the last card won't be turned for at least a couple of years.

(...)

Here are the primary QBs for this year's NFL teams with winning records and where they were drafted.

Giants - Eli Manning (First Round)
Redskins - Jason Campbell (First Round)
Bills - JP Losman (First Round)
Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger (First Round)
Colts - Peyton Manning (First Round)
Titans - Vince Young (First Round)
San Diego - Philip Rivers (First Round)
Packers - Brett Favre (Second Round)
Jacksonville - David Garrard (Fourth Round)/Quinn Gray (undrafted)
Seahawks - Matt Hasselbeck (Sixth Round)
Patriots - Tom Brady (Sixth Round)
Browns - Derek Anderson (Sixth Round)
Cowboys - Tony Romo (undrafted)
Lions - Jon Kitna (undrafted)
Bucs - Jeff Garcia (undrafted)

So if you add in Quinn Gray, then we have as many Sixth Round and Undrafted QBs leading winning teams as we do First Round QBs.

But wins alone aren't the best example of whether a QB is competent or not - I'm looking at you Vince Young. A passer rating gets us closer to that. So let's find the average passer rating by draft round for the primary QBs in this year's NFL. We're using career passer ratings (not just this year's) provided by NFL.com and have added Byron Leftwich, Jake Delhomme, David Carr and Vinny Testaverde to the list. Special note: Trent Green was drafted in the 8th round of the 1993 Draft. This means in total we're looking at 34 QBs.

First Round QBs: 17
Avg. passer rating: 80.05

Second Round QBs: 2
Avg. passer rating: 86.35

Third Round QBs: 2
Avg. passer rating: 81.05

Fourth Round QBs: 1
Avg. passer rating: 84.1

Fifth Round QBs: none

Sixth Round QBs: 4
Avg. passer rating: 87.48

Seventh Round QBs: none

Eighth Round QBs: 1
Avg. passer rating: 86.9

Undrafted QBs: 7
Avg. passer rating: 85.07

You don't need a linear regression analysis program to tell you that there is no correlation between career passer rating and draft round. But there are some important things to consider. One is that first round draft choices get more playing time to determine if they'll pan out while late round draft choices have to produce immediately. We all know about the Ryan Leafs and Akili Smiths. Meanwhile a bad Sixth Round pick may play one game and that's basically his career. Or he may never play at all. These scenarios will naturally deflate the first round QB avg. passer rating to a degree while boosting the late rounds. But, looking at it from another perspective, you can also make the argument with the data available that there are a fair number of pretty good QBs that go late in the draft or that don't get drafted at all. By this analysis, there are 12 current QBs who were drafted in the Sixth Round or later (or not at all) who easily surpass the 17 First Round players in average career passer rating. When you stop and think about that, it's stunning. And it also says that maybe some of those First Round picks really shouldn't be playing anymore and teams should be trying out new guys - like say my 49ers. One can only wonder how many Tom Bradys and Tony Romos weren't discovered because a higher draft pick, but inferior player, was ahead of them on the depth chart.

The most recent example is Derek Anderson. Romeo Crennel named Charlie Frye (a third round choice) as his starter at the beginning of the year, then traded him after Week 1. It's only because of that trade that Anderson saw significant playing time. Imagine if Crennel had stuck with Frye until week 8 or 9. He might have just inserted Brady Quinn by then, effectively shutting the door on Anderson's career. Instead, the trade was made, Anderson began starting, and another late round gem was found.

Year after year scouts and coaches drool over players with great arm strength (see: Boller, Kyle), or family genes (see: Manning, Eli) or God only knows what (see: Smith, Alex). And after they fail - although Eli appears to maybe finally be headed in the right direction - you hear excuse after excuse. He's an idiot; he didn't play in a pro-style college offense; he's slow; he doesn't get rid of the ball quickly enough. Well, if all that's so noticeable now, why didn't you notice it before? And why didn't you notice Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Derek Anderson, and Kurt Warner? Obviously something isn't working in terms of scouting.

Certainly more analysis needs to be done - as in looking back year after year - but there does seem to be a bit of a trend. And that is that there are a ton of first round QB busts along with a surprisingly high number of good QBs available late in the draft or who were never drafted at all. Which pretty much means one thing. The draft is frequently a total crapshoot when it comes to drafting QBs.

http://100percentinjuryrate.blogspot...-is-total.html

Al the above is true .. that said we have never addressed the QB position ever ... But right now a great QB would just get murdered anyway ...

Carl re-signed Damon Huard, enough said.

What is the problem, Huard is developing nicely.

I agree, he should be set to help anybody that is concerned with getting their fetal position down pat. I hear, he once tutored Jim Baker for his trial back in the day.

QB is at the top of our list of priorities this off-season.
If there isn't a fairly young prospect in Free Agency we must take one high in the Draft.

I think a reliable veteran addition in FA would also be prudent.

We'll just punt and play D /Herm

I DON'T WANT CARL OR HERM ANY WHERE AROUND A YOUNG QB. KICK EM OUT AND BRING IN SOMEONE WHO HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD AT DEVELOPING A QB

To be fair, he hasnt drafted many overall, and most of them were mid to low rounders.

Matt Blundin was probably his biggest mistake. He was a 2nd rounder who never did one damn thing.

The Chiefs dont seem to target IMPACT players very often and then go after them whatever the cost. (Meaning trade up) The only time i can think of the Chiefs traded up was to snag Gonzalez.

I honestly think they should have done that this year with Ryan. At worst, Ryan looks like he will be solid.

Didn't we trade up to snag Sims?

yep with dallas

:cuss::cuss::cuss::cuss::cuss::cuss:

What he said. :clap:

Do we really need a QB?

Um...Yes.
Along with quite a few other things.
Middle Linebacker, pass-rushing DE, #2 Wide Receiver...
Head Coach, Defensive Coordinator, QB Coach, Special Teams Coach, General Manager, Defensive Line Coach, Offensive Line Coach...

[QUOTE=KC Fish;5087570](...)

Here are the primary QBs for this year's NFL teams with winning records and where they were drafted.

Giants - Eli Manning (First Round)
Redskins - Jason Campbell (First Round)
Bills - JP Losman (First Round)
Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger (First Round)
Colts - Peyton Manning (First Round)
Titans - Vince Young (First Round)
San Diego - Philip Rivers (First Round)
Packers - Brett Favre (Second Round)
Jacksonville - David Garrard (Fourth Round)/Quinn Gray (undrafted)
Seahawks - Matt Hasselbeck (Sixth Round)
Patriots - Tom Brady (Sixth Round)
Browns - Derek Anderson (Sixth Round)
Cowboys - Tony Romo (undrafted)
Lions - Jon Kitna (undrafted)
Bucs - Jeff Garcia (undrafted)

So if you add in Quinn Gray, then we have as many Sixth Round and Undrafted QBs leading winning teams as we do First Round QBs.

Sorry man, but Quinn Gray is sitting at home as a free agent. Did we call him? Hell No! Why? Who the hell knows. he played for the colts in the preseason. I watched a game in which he sucked, but as someone else proved, that was his only bad game in the PS this year(and IIRC it was against Buffalo in week 3)

And here we go again, some people already starting to parrot how a 1st round QB isn't worth it, tell me how it's gonna cripple our already crippled franchise so I can laugh.

Bring me Stafford damn it!

We have to invest a HIGH draft pick in a qb this year. but how? with the lame duck carl peterson? is herm locked in as our hc? do we want either of these no talent ass clowns picking our qbotf(shout out to bill lundgren on that one lol)

That's another argument if this team wins 3 or less games and those guys are back, we should all give up.

Well I don't think Herm drafting Stafford will make him less talented. I think we need to draft him and sit him for a year. He can work on his game and learn from a veteran, we can also build the team up around him. Put him in position to win games.

The way Herm wants to call plays will......

I wouldnt go that far mecca, but i could see how some people would. but yeah how in the hell do we move forward with these 2? We dont. period. so clark WILL be in a tough spot this offseason, he will have to decide whether to let these guys pick a qb, invest ALOT of money in that guy and roll with herm and dick ****ing curl trying to coach up a qb. OR he could see that he MIGHT be throwing away alot of money if said qb doesnt work.
Long post made short: if he lets these 2 pick a qbotf we are gonna be saddled with herm for at least several more years. THE only hope we have is if clark in his business side of things is contemplating the switch at HC and GM and decides the best business decision to let the new GM and HC pick. We def. dont need an arizona situation

no herm picking him wont make him less talented, but it would probably get him killed. look up herm's record with qbs

Realistically what are the chances of Herm being fired after this year?

Honestly probably not too good, but therein lies the conundrum that i talked about a couple of posts ago.

zero percent :clap:

What about Carl? Or Carl "stepping down" Is it next year his contract expires? This he gets an extension?

I think Joe Flacco is going to be a good QB. Prototypical size, and great arm. Would've been a good pick for you guys I think. Wish the Jets had taken him (after a trade down) instead of Gholston to be honest.

Mecca, give me the scoop on McCoy. The system he plays in, his physical tools, yada yada yada... someone asked me about him.. I personallyd don't like him especially since hes from texas but I would like your opinion.

his contract is up next year, he says he wont re-sign but who the hell knows.

I don't like drafting players from Texas, they are poorly coached and behind the curve from day 1. McCoy has also already had injury problems.

If the Chiefs don't win more then 3 games there is a good chance IMO. Clark will have to see the apathy of the fans and the lost revenue. He'll have to see that if Herm isn't replaced it will only be worse next year. This is the beginning for Clark and he has to want to start out on a positive note with the fans. He can still do that even with a lost season. All he has to do is fire Herm. If he fires Herm and Carl he'll gain 'Rock Star' status.

PhilFree:arrow:

I'm sure he will let them resign.

I really don't want to see press conferences from either of them when they go.

Jaws hinted at changes on PTI today and we know Jaws is a Peterson lover.

do you think either will resign after this year? under duress maybe?

What did Jaws say?

A forced resign more than likely.

Like torture?

fingers crossed. on both.

Clark Hunt will be looking at changes come this offseason.

hopefully all coaches and front office people are gone. I wonder if clark is confident enough in HIMSELF to go that far out on the limb just yet

Herm is going to be fired before the end of the season, it's just a matter of home games now.

I HOPE THIS IS SPOT ON

A voice of reason. I've been saying for years you should NEVER draft a QB. Way too many Kerry Collins' out there. Build the rest of your team 1st. Then pick up an old veteran. That's the winning combo.

Yea all these top level teams they just signed some vet QB oh wait.......you're just desiring to be the 90s Chiefs nothing more.

I don't think that's gonna be very popular around here. Who are the veteran QBs that are worth a dam that could be had next year?

PhilFree:arrow:

no, it isn't....

we spent 15 years picking up old veterans and got ****ing nowhere....

the best teams in the league drafted their QBs

Colts
Patriots
Giants
Chargers
Denver
Skins
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Dallas (found romo..not an old veteran)

Oh shit. That's FTW.

Not to mention its something that Clark Hunt wants.

Carl appreciates your support and would like to know if you want to go ahead and send your playoff money in now?