My analysis of Scott Pioli and his Interview
 

I just watched the full interview on KCChiefs.com where Pioli was introduced. As a close Patriots' watcher and expert (well moreso than you guys, for now anyway) in the ways of the Patriots and Mr. Pioli, I saw several things that were very interesting and figured I'd share them. I see everyone is creating separate threads on Pioli, so this is legit I guess.

First, I think Herm is likely gone. I strongly suspect that one reason for the delay in announcing Scott (I'll suggest another below) is the status of Herm Edwards.

Scott praised Herm, but when asked to give his assessment of his strengths as a coach, all he could come up with is that he liked him personally and that his players played hard for him. While that's clearly important, he didn't say ALOT of the buzzwords that I would expect him to say if he were giving a coach high praise.

I noted, correctly, in a prior thread that you could expect to hear Pioli say that he would build a "big, strong, tough, smart, disciplined" football team. None of those buzzwords came through. The phrases Belichick uses to praise the coaches he highly respects, such as Shanarat, were not used.

Then Clark Hunt went on to say that Scott would basically investigate and then report to him with a recommendation. What I strongly suspect is that Clark didn't want to fire HErm, but wants to keep him. Maybe because he feels a sense of obligation to him for handing him such a young roster, or perhaps just to save the $4MM. But what Scott and Hunt agreed on was that Scott would "give him a chance" -- i.e. have discussions iwth him and get to know the players/personnel better to make a better assessment, from the inside as it were, of Herm, and then recommend to Clark whether he will be kept or discharged.

I strongly suspect Herm will be gone in about 2 weeks.


Second, the last exchange, at the very end of the interview, was very telling. The reporter asked if Scott had to CLEAR trades, etc. with Clark. Scott's answer was that Clark will be INFORMED of everything that happens, before it happens. He also used a few other phrases that make it clear that Scott has complete control over all football operations.

That may well have been another sticking point that slowed this process down -- discussions over the degree of control Scott would have. He obviously wants what Parcells and Belichick always wanted -- complete control.

Other than that, I would recommend that any Chiefs fan on here watch the video. It explains that "Patriots' Way", and the modus operandi for the Chiefs going forward.

He also references some of the unique challenges the Chiefs present compared ot the Patriots team that won a SB two years after BB/SP arrived. The roster is much younger here now, and there is no veteran core of players, nor a recent tradition of winning. In some ways, his job is harder here than they had with the Patriots. However, there is plenty of cap room which wasn't the case in NE. The problem, however, is that everyone in the NFL (practically) has plenty of cap room these days, so it may not be that much of a competitive advantage.

Thanks for the take.

And thanks for the recommendation of "Patriots Reign."

It should be required reading for Chiefs fans that want an idea of what the "Patriots Way" and Pioli's processes are/ how he operates.

I know it's light reading, but didn't you buy it like yesterday?

Herm out in two weeks?....you think it will take two weeks to find a replacement HC?

other than that seemed spot on.

You're a closet Chiefs fan. :D

That's my guess, too. Pioli seems far too methodical to make hasty or rash decisions.

Tuesday.

Couldn't put it down, finished in two sittings over Tues/Wed.

It wasn't as in-depth as "Next Man Up" but was a good read.

Great insight on how BB and Pioli - and the organization - works together.

I'd like nothing better than to see Patriots/Chiefs AFC Championship Games for the next 10 years, and to learn to bitterly hate you because you win 2 or 3 of those games...

:D

I do wish the Chiefs and Pioli all the luck in the world, so long as it doesn't hurt the Patriots.

I'm not sure they'll have a replacement HC ready to go when the axe falls on Herm. Maybe, but I dont' think it's strictly necessary.

Fair enough.....the Pats are solid and I hope the Chiefs can duplicate the Pats recipe. But, they are kind of a mystery and you can't tell who's responsible for the success. Maybe we'll find out now. Good thread Amnorix.

i think Herm is still around for 2 reasons

1. Clark likes him
2. Herm will be the "rooney rule" candidate as Herm will interview to keep his job.

The advantage is relateive to other present and future bad teams replacing their GM that Pioli might be choosing among. We are free and clear. Nearly an expansion team with a clean slate in a way.

Agree on the point about Clark asking Pioli to consider Herm, but the reality being that they don't fit philosophically.

You'd like to Pats to lose 2 or 3 AFC Championship games?

I'm not sure I even understand this point.

In 2000, the Pats were waay over the cap, which meant alot of players had to get axed, some even if the team thought they were talented, but had to go because they were overpaid.

In 2008, the Chiefs have lots of cap room. That would seem to be an advantage, but the problem is that if 20 teams are significantly under teh cap, then the Chiefs aren't in any better position to outbid other teams for the talent that the Chiefs want.

Which, of course, throws it back on Pioli to identify the key players and decide which, if any, to slightly overspend on (the horror) if necessary to establish a winning tradition.

One thing is clear -- BB and SP believe in a CORE group of veterans to establish the work ethic and professionalism needed to win. Peterson and Herm believed in a bunch of kids. You can expect to see a host of FA signings of cheap, older veterans to help create the core that SP believes in.

the operative word here is interview

IMO it's a formality. He's gone.

Nah, just trying to realistic, can't expect to win 10 straight.

Unless, of course, you keep Herm as the HC, in which case I can and will expect to do just that. :p

What I dont understand is why would we wait so long to get a new coach when the Sr bowl and all of that shit is coming up. We need new scouts and all that shit right? what about Kuharich?

Cap room really isn't all that valuable when there are plenty of teams closer to the salary floor than the cap. And there might not even be a cap next year.

Amno, what are your thoughts on what Pioli might do with Larry and Tony?

In the past, badly run, losing teams get blown up because they are saddled with bad contracts, underperforming players, etc. The Chiefs were one of those teams last season and Herm took the hit in having to deal with that over the last 3 years, and Pioli is now walking into an organization that is uniquely free of much of the typical losing-team baggage.

I think the fire/keep Herm analysis is a bit shallow.

The question is not is Herm the best coach to keep. The question is much more complex. The question is, "Given the available this year and the the potential other available head coach that we could hire next year, is it in KC's long term interest to replace Herm this year or wait until next year."

If Herm is fired, it will only be after Scott has identified who he wants as his replacement.

You do know that Herm got a Christmas card from your boy Bill, what higher praise could there be?

It's too late for all that. For good or for bad, Pioli needs to take what the current scouts have compiled, combine it with his own knowledge, and go from there, for purposes of this year at least.

You can read between the lines (and it didn't take much) -- Pioli will NOT be raiding the Patriots scouting department, this year or ever. He basically made the same agreement that Dimitroff did on that front.

So you think Scott can/will determine what he wants to do based on who MIGHT be available next year. That's insane, IMHO. How the heck does he know for certain who is available next year?

Larry, rpesumably, is LJ. I don't know the Chiefs roster that well, and I seem to always see him referred to as LJ, not Larry, which is why I ask.

I honestly can't assess his talent at this point. I haven't seen enough of him. I think that if he thinks LJ is more seflish than selfless, then he's gone. By trade if possible, but by axe if necessary. More likely trade, even if for low value.

I would think he'd either retain Tony for the leadership and example that he sets in terms of professionalism, etc, but you can never tell. Willie McGinest found out that when its time to move on, the team will move on, even if you're reasonable in your contract demands.

The Patriots didn't have an overly young, undertalented team with lots of spare cap room, so what they did with their vets doesn't necessarily translate well into what happens with Tony.

FYI LJ counts 8 mil against the cap. That won't factor into the decision?

Thanks for your take Amnorix.

NO way in Hell do i see Herm staying as HC.

Has there ever been a situation like that?

A coach who has won 6 games in 2 years. New GM comes in and keeps the same coach?

I cant think of anything like that. Herm is dead man walking.

Yes, it will. Definitely. Players that are overpaid compared to performance usually get asked to trim things.

The Belichick appraoch is an economic one. Cost/benefit analysis goes into EVERY decision. Which players to keep, which to cut, which draft picks make the most sense, etc. etc. Little known is that Belichick was an economist major in college.

But, if Pioli thinks he's worth $8MM, which is about 6 or 7% or so of the current cap number, right, then that might not be a bone of contention. The other relevant question is what is the cap hit to cut him, based on acceleration of the signing bonus?

FAs are on the way ... the youth will be well served to listen and learn ...

Thanks for the thoughts Amnorix. Much appreciated.

Amnorix,

Do you think Pioli will tak a Qb at #3?

The Pats never took one high, but never had a pick that high nor really had a need.

It's 8m either way I believe.

Possible, but a bit surprising.

They never had a need.

If he thought the next Brady or Manning was there, of course he would. Parcells took Bledsoe at #1, and Pennington at #16 or whatever it was. They're not shy about drafting QBs high or anything.

I'll put up a separate post about drafting philosophy.

Obviously he doesn't know exactly who will be available next year. But what he is NOT going to do is fire Herm and replace him with someone who he doesn't feel is the right fit. And then be stuck at the end of next season with the problem of needing to fire him to get a guy he really wants. If the perfect candidate is not available he will "push" one year.

Here's how the Patriots run their draft, generally.

1. they compile the usual, ridiculous list of all players coming out of college. They then SEVERELY whittle it down. Every player that doesn't fit their system gets kicked out, REGARDLESS of talent. They just ignore players that don't fit their system -- whether because they're a bad fit (that 285 lb DE that is too small for DE and too big/slow for OLB or whatever). It's my understanding that the Patriots "board" is much smaller than the average team.

2. Everyone left is graded. A point value is given.

3. Then they're sorted by grades.

4. Then adjustments are made and players are ranked based on team need and other factors. A CB and a OL might both have a hypothetical value of 6.8, but if we need CBs more than OLs, then the CB gets the higher ranking.

What is left is the draft board for the Patriots. It's VERY team specific. Player X, who was great at DE at College ABC, but projects at OLB for the Patriots, is graded AT OLB. They do not give a crap how good a DE he was. If they have serious concerns about him dropping back to cover, then he will get a lower grade. They do not give a rat's ass how he might do for some other team.

They obviously have some kind of system for figuring out what other team's needs/desires/draft history is, because that is important in trackign what other teams might do on draft day. They have moved up before to steal players that they thought might go very soon to a team one or two spots behind where they move up to.

On draft day, if the team has a number of players with very close grades left, and someone offers them a pick if they slide back a few slots, then they move back and say "well, out of all these 6.7 and 6.8 grades, we'll get one of them, and they're so even ti hardly matters."

If one guy is head and shoulders above the rest, and within a "few" ("few" being relative by round -- moving up 3 picks in the first half of the first orund might be more expensive than moving up by 10 picks in the third round) picks, then that guy is "sliding", according to their board. If they're worried another team might pick him up, then they will trade up to grab him, because he's much more valuable than whoever will be left at their original pick once it comes to them.

Well, I agree he wont' fire him if he doesn't feel he can likely get a good fit. But that's sort of obvious, yes?

I read on here that it was 8.6.

You're much closer to the situation, but that is pretty much spot on with what I've read about how they handle it.

One thing I liked in Patriots Reign, was the comment that before the draft BB/SP make a small list, 10-20 players that they WANT to be Patriots. Then they do whatever they can, provided it makes sense, to draft those players.

Regarding Tom Brady, he wasn't really a lucky pick, only in the sense that the Patriots didn't think he'd be there at #199. They were prepared to take Tim Rattay in the 6th or 7th, because they figured someone would jump on Brady earlier, and they had other players they ranked above Brady - plus they had Bledsoe.

I can't remember who made the comment in the book, BB or SP, but they knew that Brady would be their starter within a year or two.

Sounds like there's gonna be a ton of people bitching on this board...

...only this time we select Richard Seymour instead of Bernard ****ing Pollard...

...FYI I don't know if you guys were bitching about Seymour, just throwing a name out there.

Herm will stay this year because Cowher isn't going to go back to coaching until next year. So I don't see KC firing Herm and hiring a new coach for this year, then letting him go after 1 season to hire Cowher. Cowher will then come to KC and be the new HC and we will all be happy.

I visioned this in my bowl of frosted flakes this morning.

No that isn't obvious.

The Jets fired Mangini without figuring out who his replacement would be. I am saying Scott isn't firing Herm unless he has a replacement in mind that is the perfect fit.

I think you left out a lot. As I understand it the Patriots also do an analysis of all current players and compare every draftee to who they would cut/bench to make room for him. While the Patriots don't draft "on need" the score assigned to a nose tackle would be based largely on how he compares to Wilfork and Smith. As Smith would almost certainly be cut to make room for a new nose tackle.

I watched it this morning, and that last exchange you mentioned kind of bothered me.

Your take will hopefully shed some light.

It left me feeling like Clark is carrying a heavy hand over Scott, and Scott needs to get approval on everything. He actually said that, that Clark would know everything and be involved before anything was done. In fact, Scott kept looking over to Clark for approval signals on things he was saying.

Scott is the expert here, not Clark, Clark just has the money. Lamar sure never operated that way.

Great post. I was worried about the possibility of holding onto Herm for one more year while Pioli gets familiar with the roster and such but your points make a lot of sense.

I think his scant praise for Herm was a way of firing Herm with class. That way when he lets him go it's not as obviously for incompetance and just because the organization is going in a different direction.

I disagree. It's just a matter of respect. If people asked Belichick if the Crafts would be kept involved I suspect he would say something similar, purely out of respect and in an effort to maintain a good working relationship. Notice Pioli never said anything about deferring to Hunt's judgement. Just that Clark would know about the decisions.

godammit, I'm always late on threads!!! I must have the last post on half the threads on here. Gotta learn to strike while the iron's hot!

I hope you are right.

Two weeks is wayyyyy too long for Herm to stay (if he's going to be fired). The Senior Bowl stuff starts next week. If it gets done, it's done before then. I'd say tomorrow at the latest.

Just remember to say hello to Herm next time you're at arrowhead and he's directing you to your parking spot.

I was watching the interview and couldn't help but get goose pimples a few times.

You know, I'm a little sick of the locals laughing at me when I wear my Chiefs red. Especially coming from folks in this state. But I will remember every one of them when the tide's turned.

It's a proud day to be a Chiefs fan. Our future looks very bright. Thank you Mr. Hunt.

Clark likes him, but has promised Pioli control over football operations. I would like to see the DC from Minnesota interviewed.

Frazier looks to be the favorite in STL, now that Haslett has been told he's no longer being considered.

I would be curious to see what Pioli will do. It has been well established in here the both Pioli and Edwards' philosophy does not match. However, the issue here is that Clark was really wanting to keep Herm around for another year, for whatever unknown reasons.

To me, it makes more sense to let Herm walk, and get the available coaches that are out there (Spagnuolo, Frazier, Ryan, etc.) so that the new coach can implement his own assistants and his system, and get the players that both matches Pioli and the coach's philosophy in 2009, and depending on the Draft and FA signings, that this year should show some (hopefully) improvement, with the goal of contending for the playoffs in 2010, along with the fact that Arrowhead Stadium will be fully remodeled, which would really energize the fan base.

If Herm is retained, and bombs out again (this is very probable, since the man can't coach, along with his assistants), then the Chiefs just completely wasted a year.

Of course, there are one year wonders that can occur (see Smith, Sparano) so that could be a possibility.

I think it's commonly believed by most Patriot "experts" that Brady would've been the starter at teh start of '02 even if Bledsoe hadn't gotten hurt, and possibly earlier than that, depending on how 2001 went.

Of course, it's impossible to say for sure, and many Patriots fans would've been in riot. I'm amazed to this day how bitter the Brady/Bledsoe debate was even after 2001. :eek:

Some were. Famously, Boston Globe sportswriter Ron Borges trashed the pick, saying how stupid they wre to take a guy from Georgia with only 1.5 (or whatever) sacks his senior year instead of a real stud like WR David Terrel. ROFL

Here's the good news -- Pioli could honestly not give a **** what any of you fans think. The Belichick way is that THEY KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING, and you have no ****ing idea what you are talking about.

Of course, if you get results on the field, then you're fine. If not, then you will be excoriated, and the media will crucify you because you don't work to get them to love you.

not in kc. our media are a bunch of pussies

Well, that is the Patriots way. BB has never cut a player because he sucked. Player are released because they do not fit into the current system.

Patriots fans have master the art of trash talking. But the team never talks bad about anyone, current players, cut players, fired coaches, opposing teams, etc. I would expect Scott would continue this simple act of class.

Dude, wtf is your fixation on the senior bowl? Pioli will just make do with what he has until he's ready to make a move. He's probably sitting in a hotel room right now mulling his options and enjoying a hot cocoa.

In all seriousness, would you not take the time to assess the situation and figure out what you had on hand before hacking away like an American Psycho? He's too calculated an individual to just fire away without taking stock of just how bare the cupboard is compared to what's available, especially since he knows the importance of his first decisions here setting the tone and the possible implications that his moves will have on the chemistry between the coaches and the front office. The Senior Bowl is pretty insignificant on Scott Pioli's plate right now, so saying that he's gotta make the most important decision he's had thus far as a Chief (and possibly ever as a professional) because the senior bowl is coming up is completely irrational.

isnt herm a senior bowl coach?

Nope, Bengals and Jaguars.

I've heard that he isn't on the boards, and even if he is... it's one game. It's not like Pioli's draft day options are going to live and die by this one meaningless game. He has an entire season's worth of film to judge against as well as the opinions he's doubtless formed over the course of the season. He probably already has quite a list of guys in mind that would fill roles here depending on the kind of schemes he'd like to see executed.

I Think He needs Herm to get both sides of the story about the players and why they performed the way they did. If Herm says a guy didnt give effort that goes into account. If said player says Herm wanted him to play too close, far away, look at the QB's eyes, etc. that goes into account when he watches film and talks to other coaches. He also see's whos full of it or not pulling their weight. It just helps him make a more informed decision about everyone.

There is another very valid reason to give Herm hope he will be retained -- to get his help.

As SP indicated you can't evaluate a player unless you know what he was told. Me and you can watch a player and speculate he is playing too aggressively or too soft or missed or an assignment or made a bad pass or ran a route wrong. But unless we know exactly what play was called an the directions given to the player it is just a guess.

What ever your opinion of the overall talent of Herm is the fact is he know way more about the KC players at this moment than SP. If SP fires him on day one he has no shot at any of that info. If he interviews Herm for 16 hours over three days and then fires him he will have considerable more insight on the players he has to work with.

Keeping Herm for a few weeks to pick his brain about players is about the only legit reason anyone could conjure at this point. Outside of that, there couldn't be any interview questions since Pioli says he and Herm have a long-standing personal relationship and there is plenty of data with regard to Herm's head coaching (in)abilities.

Darn... I'm one minute too slow.

Problem with that, would you want to get information from Herm, who has shown us over and over that he simply cannot coach?

I wouldn't....

Then I would think you would keep Gailey and Gunther around. I doubt Herm knows the complete ins and outs of the offensive and defensive playbooks.

Besides, I am pretty sure that this is broken down on film after every game. Pioli shouldn't need anyone to hold his hand.

I believe what you read is that the difference to sap would be $600, 000.00.

If he's on the roster, his cap number is 8.2 mil.
Cut or traded it would be 8.8 mil.

Sounds like a complicated way of saying you have to take the best player available, with an eye on need and positional value.

Which is what I've said for a while now.

errr....yeah, I left out alot. Did you want a full book on the subject? Yeesh...

Nah, I got the opposite sense in terms of the final answer he gave.

These guys are just starting out on a partnership here. Sure there will be some tough moments, etc., but the final answer was clear -- Pioli runs teh show, and all Clark gets is to know what is going on.

errr...best player available for YOUR needs and YOUR team. Not just some random talented guy.

Correct. Every team should have a different order for their BPA. According to philosophy, make up of their roster, etc. Whether you run 4-3, or 3-4 LBs, and DEs will change dramatically from board to board for example.

And this, by the way, is why Mel Kiper is pretty much useless as a commentator. Not only does he not recognize team-specificity in evaluating players, he's incapable of doing it for any team, mcuh less whoever is up next.

Sure, he can say "that team needs an LB", but he's basically incapable of the next step "and that's why, for THIS team, THAT player is a bad fit. This other guy is a better fit because of the scheme they run."

He's just an expensive suit, manicure and hair style who talks football the way a car salesman talks cars. Not only couldn't build an engine, they can barely do more than turn the key...

Reptastic.

Well, I didn't expect them to be looking at and drafting for other team's needs.

Duh........