Bradford Doolittle: Chiefs shouldn't discount Thigpen
 

Chiefs shouldn't discount Thigpen

While Chiefs fans are stuck in limbo waiting for new coach, let's talk some actual on-the-field football and address a little personnel matter. Actually, it's not so little. If it weren't for all the turmoil surrounding the leadership of the Chiefs, this would be the No. 1 question on the minds of their fans right now. The question is simple and its answer will no doubt have serious ramifications in regards to who KC selects with the third pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Is Tyler Thigpen a legitimate NFL quarterback?

Let's start with some scouting observations. First, from his rivals.com profile based on his college days:

* "Has a live arm with a compact delivery and has developed a nice understanding of defenses. He is quick in his setup and has the mobility to avoid the pass rush. ... He needs work on the finer points of the position to maximize his fine arm and athletic ability. ... Could become a regular in the right setting with development."

That sounds about right. Next, let's turn to Pro Football Prospectus, which bases its observations on statistical analysis and also features a nifty system for projecting the pro performance of college quarterbacks. In 2007, after Thigpen had been drafted by Minnesota, PFP wrote:

* "He's an undersized scrambler with bad mechanics."

Not a glowing report and clashes with the Rivals piece. However, in 2008, PFP dug a little deeper:

* "Apparently we didn't know what the Vikings had, and neither did the Vikings. ... relies too much on physical gifts, trying to make plays that worked fine against the Division I-AA or Division II stars, but will get him destoyed in the NFL. ... In a perfect world, he turns into (the Chiefs') version of Derek Anderson."

This was in the last offseason, when becoming Derek Anderson seemed like a good thing. PFP also offered its first statistical projection of Thigpen: 56.7% completion, 17 TD/16 INT in 493 attempts and a -32.1% DVOA (read about that stat here). His actual numbers: 54.8%, 18 TD/12 INT, -6.1% DVOA -- much better than projected.

So, as you would expect with a seventh-round pick, the scouting reports aren't glowing but there were some things to like, some upside potential and the Chiefs did well to grab Thigpen when the Vikings tried to sneak him through waivers. Could they have expected Thigpen to emerge as their starting quarterback in his second year in the NFL? Certainly not. It's exceedingly rare for a seventh-round quarterback to play -- ever. But it happens. Since 1990, there have been eight QBs drafted in rounds seven or later that eventually became the primary starter for their team for at least one season:

1. Brad Johnson
2. Trent Green
3. Gus Frerotte
4. Elvis Grbac
5. Kent Graham
6. Ty Detmer
7. Tim Rattay
8. Matt Cassell

Not exactly a murderer's row of signal-callers and a couple of guys KC fans are quite familiar with. There are six pro-bowl seasons mixed in there and Johnson was the starting QB on a Super Bowl champion. Of these, Green and Frerotte were both starters in their second season. Those two have combined to throw for nearly 50,000 yards in the NFL. So it's not out of the question that a guy like Thigpen could turn into a good starting quarterback. At the same time, guys like him are the exception not the rule: There were 67 quarterbacks taken in the seventh round or later in the time frame I examined.

COMPARABLES

The upshot of Thigpen getting so much field time last season is that you actually have some empircal data with which to work. That's always good. What we're interested in finding out is how quarterbacks with similar statistical profiles to Thigpen eventually developed. The hope is that we can hazard some sort of guess at what the chances are that Thigpen develops into a legit NFL starter.

Technical explanation for what I've done: I calculated a "similarity score" for Thigpen and every quarterback that's thrown at least 100 passes in an NFL season since 1995. I've chosen that time frame because that's how far back the data at Football Outsiders dates back and I wanted to use that as part of my criteria. After doing that, I narrowed the list down to seasons for first- and second-year quarterbacks. There are 109 such seasons. I've only looked at passing categories.

Here are the categories I used in my sim score calculation: completion percentage, yards per attempt above/below league average, first down percentage, TD/INT differential (TD-INT divided by pass attempts), sack percentage, percentage of completed passes for short yardage (1-19 yards), percentage of completed passes for medium yardage (20-39 yards), percentage of completed passes for long yardage (40+ yards) and DVOA.

Here are the 10-most similar QB seasons for first- and second-year players to Thigpen's 2008 campaign:

1. Patrick Ramsey, 2003
2. Damon Huard, 1999
3. Trent Green, 1998
4. Bobby Hoying, 1997
5. Shaun King, 1999
6. Donovan McNabb, 2000
7. Patrick Ramsey, 2002
8. Aaron Brooks, 2001
9. Jason Campbell, 2006
10. Chris Simms, 2005 (When he had his spleen, Gene)

That's a pretty good range of quarterbacks, both in the positive and the negative. McNabb is the name that jumps out at you, but let's not forget our scouting report/draft position knowledge. McNabb was very highly rated and was the second player picked in the 1999 draft.

However, Green, as we've pointed out, was a seventh-round pick. So if you agree that draft position is a good proxy for consensus scouting opinion, then in many respects, Trent Green represents the ceiling for Tyler Thigpen. The likes of Ramsey, Hoying, King, et al, represent the floor, at least as it pertains to our sample of young starters. Thigpen has already exceeded his literal floor -- those dozens of late-round QBs that never saw the field in an NFL game.

CAREER VALUE

To recap, what we've done to this point is to identify the 109 quarterback seasons posted by players that, like Thigpen, played extensively by their second year in the league. Then we calculated which of those players were most similar to Thigpen. Now, our next step is to look at the development of these similar players.

I sorted my list by similarity scores, then cut it off at the 22 most similar QBs. I wanted to pick the top 20, but Patrick Ramsey and Shaun King, who started in both their first and second years in the NFL, are listed twice, so I added two more. As a proxy for career value, I used Football Outsiders' DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) metric, prorated for 500 attempts. Sounds complicated, but the scale works just like raw yardage: the higher a player's DYAR, the better.

In this instance, a figure of about 400 DYAR per 500 attempts signifies a playoff-caliber quarterback. There are six players on Thigpen's top-20 comparables that have posted a figure that high, led by Trent Green. So, by my reasoning -- and this is the guts of this whole piece -- you could peg Thigpen's chances of developing into a legit (ie, playoff-caliber) starter at about 30 percent.

Those are actually pretty good odds in player-development terms. The percentages aren't nearly high enough -- and the sample isn't large enough -- to discourage the Chiefs from bringing in another quarterback in the offseason, be it through the draft, a trade or free agency. However, they do suggest that Thigpen has some upside.

Personally, I would be concerned about Thigpen's completion percentage, which ranked 30 out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in the past season. Among the many bits of information that have resulted from the research by the Football Outsiders/Pro Football Prospectus crew is this: Quarterbacks tend to be accurate or not. It's hard to "coach up" this aspect of a signal caller.

However, when I ran regressions of the different categories in my similarity score scheme against career value, two categories stood out as most important: DVOA and PAA (yards per pass attempt above or below the league average). In those two crucial categories, which track very closely, Thigpen ranked 48th and 49th out of the 110 players ranked. That's fairly encouraging -- he's in the top half. However, it underscores the overall notion that while Thigpen may have some real potential, no one, including the Chiefs, really know what they have in him at this point.

CONCLUSIONS

If the Chiefs bring in another QB, what are the odds that that player develops into a playoff-caliber performer? Fifty-fifty? Worse than that? That's why it doesn't make any sense to me that people approach this Thigpen/QB situation as an either/or proposition. The guy makes squat in salary-cap terms -- keep him and bring in someone else to compete.

Young quarterbacks are rarely a sure thing and there doesn't appear to be a sure thing in this draft. But there will be quality quarterbacks that emerge from this draft class. Whether or not the Chiefs use their first pick on a QB, they do need to take one on the first day of the draft. That player would then battle it out with Thigpen next summer, presumably with a veteran quarterback -- Damon Huard? -- waiting in the wings.

Tyler Thigpen may not pan out as a starting quarterback in the NFL. However, at this point, based on what we saw last season, you can't rule him out just yet.

THE LIST

I'll leave you with the full list of the 109 quarterback seasons used in my Thigpen analysis. The seasons are ranked by DYAR/500 attempts, however the left column lists the similarity ranking to Thigpen's 2008 season. In other words, the #52 ranking next to Peyton Manning's rookie season means that it was the 52nd most-similar season in this sample to Thigpen's 2008 season.

[Full list in a table at the link above]

agreed 100%.

Who the hell is Bradford Doolittle? That's too long an article to read for a backup QB at best

Thigpen may indeed be a backup, but for a guy with zero offseason prep in this offense, he did outstandingly well.

I don't think Pioli is going to be as quick to write off Thigpen as some of you guys are. We still may draft a QB, but Thigpen will most likely be fighting for the starting job this season.

nicely done but my guts tell me that Thigppy can do much better next year.

He uses a lot of pretty complicated metrics in an attempt to avoid what appears to be the most relevant conclusion in this article.

The kid's not accurate enough to start in the league. That's the single most important aspect of an NFL QB, he doesn't have it and is extremely unlikely to get it.

The rest of the article is noise.

WooHoo!

So Thigpen is the next Aaron Brooks or Shaun King. Hell yea!!

Brad Doolittle is a guy who I believe started in radio at 580 WIBW many moons ago doing post game on Royals broadcasts.

Essentially, he's a nobody. Just another guy with an opinion.

IMO, he went to a great deal of trouble to avoid that point.

No, actually, he estimates there is about a 30% chance that Thigpen becomes a very good NFL starter, which is a lot higher than zero, but nowhere near high enough to justify not taking a QB in the draft.

Thigpen is far from a sure thing, but he's not garbage.

It's funny to see anyone who thinks a guy who's upside is that is the answer at the position.

Exactly what ive been trying to say for months.

I trust Pioli will make the right decisions.

You obviously didn't read the article or cannot understand the statistical analysis because that is not at all what he wrote.

He did, but I don't think it's cut-and-dry. Most of the scouting reports indicated that he had to work on a lot of mechanics. I hear a lot of people say that there's no way he improves on his accuracy, but none have really given him a chance to see how he can sort through those mechanical problems in the offseason.

I think the 30% stat is probably about right. But I think he deserves at least the offseason to prove whether or not he can improve markedly from last year. As a third string QB coached by a lousy QBs coach, you don't get much opportunity to get coached up as you should.

Dude, we're not that far off in our asessments. He's a 3rd string project that this franchise cannot afford to hitch it's wagon to.

He still has horrendous mechanics and no ability to play in a normal offense...30% is being generous when you look at the failure rate of spread QB's in the NFL.

I wouldn't say he has horrible mechanics. He has very inconsistent mechanics, and if that isn't fixed, yeah, he'll never be consistently accurate enough.

Tyler Thigpen has great athletic ability, a strong arm, 24 years old, bad mechanics granted. His mechanics can be fixed with given time, and has three full seasons with KC under his belt while still very young. He may not pan out, but he is worth the risk because of his 'boom' potential. Steve Young, who is somewhat similar to Thigpen athletically, had a horrific first year starting with the Bucs (8 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 2200 yards) when he was 25 years old, and his career turned out fine. Granted Young had a better pedigree than Thigpen, but the potential is there, I would let Thigpen have an off-season where he is the starter the whole way through, and see what develops, this off-season draft another need and build the team, if Thigpen does not pan out, then you'll have a high draft pick (Bradford, McCoy...) and have a better team for them to thrive in, and hopefully if/when Thigpen pans out then you'll have your quarterback.

I'm sick of reading stupid shit like this. Learn something about football, then post again, n00B.

I love Thigpen. I think he should start the season as the #1 (Unless he just get beaten in camp), and let us see how the O-line is playing. If he plays really well, it will give more time to our future QB to sit, and learn, and also may give us some trade option regarding him. At the very least, he would have gained experience, and would provide us with an excellen #2 QB. Win Win. Here's to you Mr. 7th rnd, skull fuqing, crazy legged QB.

From the tone of your voice, I would assume the only thing you read IS stupid shit like "Derrrr...let's draft a quarterback who has no pro-experience, who is most likely going to be a bust, who is going to hold out, and who is going to ask for money up the ass."

What stupid shit? It's better than those who think that a man's career should be determined in half a season? He was right on target, except that I disagree that we wait one year on a QB.

If we draft Stafford or Sanchez, no way does he beat them out. Their mechanics are far superior. Plus, they can play from under center.

If you don't take chances, you keep getting the same shit we saw on the field this past season.

Agreed, just differ on where the chance should be taken this off-season

Thig lucked into that starting role. His mechanics are shit, he's not worth it. Should he be given a chance to compete in TC? Absolutely.

Which one got the hotter wife
Tyler's dating models yet

Thig isn't gonna get much better.

**** Thigpen

Why does it matter how he got the starting job? Shouldn't it only matter how he performed and what the Chiefs think he is capable of? Why not just cut every 5th, 6th, and 7th round pick on the roster while we're at it.

Thigpen performed decent but he has a lot of holes in his game. He still has upside. Nobody knows how high that ceiling is. A few years ago, a guy named Eli Manning was playing horribly in his rookie season. What did he do? He hired a fundamentals coach to teach him mechanics and he went on to win the Super Bowl soon after. Not saying that Thigpen is Eli Manning, but the point is that the aspects of his game where Thigpen struggles are all coachable. He has a lot of intangibles: decent arm strength, athletic ability, good head on his shoulder, leadership, and seemingly decent smarts that are uncoachable.

I'd like to see what happens if you make an effort to fix those mechanical problems and see how far his upside goes. The great thing about bringing in a new coach and a new GM is that they will both give him a shot to do just that, but neither of them will guarantee that he keeps a starting job all season. But enough with this nonsense that he should be taken completely out of the picture entirely because he wasn't perfect in his first 8 starts or because of his draft status.

Your post got me to looking at career QB completion% (Accuracy). Looks like the standard is about 62.5% give or take .5% for a really good QB. Breese, McNabb, Rothlisberger (sp?), Rivers, and Brady are all about 62%. Payton manning is 64.4% for his career and was only 56.7% his rookie year.

Anyway Thigpen was 54.8% this year. I am not a Thigpen lover nor am I a hater. If he earns a job he earns it, if not he doesn't. We should still draft a QB. I enjoyed his play about 50% of the time this year, 1st half mostly.

My thought is that the difference between 54% and 64% is completing 10 more attempts every 100 or about 3 every game he throws 33 times. Is it really inconceivable that he can't improve that much?

Let Thiggy compete with FA/Draft pick, who ever Pioli and new HC decide. 1 shot wonder who knows.

My initial reaction to this post was the same as BigChiefDave's.

But I stepped away for a mimute, and I will try to take a reasonable approach.

Thigpen has some things to work with, but his mechanics, as has been pointed out, are flawed.

Why do you think that he has those mechanical issues?

A big reason is that he came out of a spread offense.
Spread QBs have got to learn entirely nerw mechanics if they hope to succeed on the NFL level.

Sanchez and Stafford are both QBs that played in pro sets, so they would be ready, from a mechanical standpoint, to come in and compete immediately.

Bradford and McCoy play in spreads.

Even if they didn't have other questions, they would be projects that have to learn all new mechanics.

Sanchez and Stafford could potentially be ready by 2010.

Bradford and McCoy won't be ready until about 2012.

So, yeah, let's wait for next year to draft a QB.

Yeah. I would say that if he had spurred us to even a 8-8 season, he might be considered as a starting lock. I think he showed some talent, but I also think that he's got to compete. He will definitely get more snaps.

54% is horrendously bad when you factor in the offense that was being run for him is predicated on easy completions...

Boy, is he. Literally!

http://catalog.miniscience.com/Catal...ton_42cm_L.jpg

I'm afraid that the Thigpen era has come and gone. The draft, trade, and waiver pick-up will yield at least two other QBs, probably with more talent than Thigpen has. He'll wind up being lucky to be the 3rd stringer.

Can you imagine Huard coming back for another season? He ought to be considered at the QB coach position.

The Pistol will not be the offense to which Pioli will subscribe.

This. I like Thigpen's moxy but his accuracy is not NFL caliber. His mechanics are not the best. I especially dislike his penchant for throwing off his back foot. I would love to have Thigpen become the QOTF and contribute to many playoff victories.... but I just don't see that potential based on what we saw this past season.

I think at best Thigpen holds down the job until a QB we draft this year is ready. I just don't like the odds of QBs that have been thrown in there from game one of their rookie season. This is especially more important if we are not able to get our offensive line where it needs to be.

What is Huard going to teach? How to quit and fold like a cheap lawn chair?

Please, Huard needs to GTFO and fast!

I don't want to discount him.

Which team would pay full retail, and what would he bring at that level?

If it is a 3rd or below, I think we should keep him as a back up. If he could bring a 2nd or higher, I think he's trade bait.

I'd be surprised if you could get more than a 5th for Thigpen. Not to bash him, but not many teams are going to reinvent their offense for a kid with his talent level.

You're full of it. The piss-poor playcalling over the last four years, as a result of the the holes in our O-line, and inability to coach up the O-line, haven't clouded your vision, just made you blind.

How do you go through life with a name like Doolittle?

I started to discount Thigpen when he routinely over threw the basic out patterns.

Blind to what?

The Fact that Huard Quit on his team? Or his uncanty ability to fold under the slightest of pressure?

If you think Huard is an assest, then you shouldnt be questioning peoples vision...

Remember the shouting match that Huard had with the sideline in the 07-08 season? I don't think that's quitting. He had it out with Father Time, and with Solari. Let's face it: that season was nothing but Herm pussy-footing and trying to get along with his immediate boss, a politically corrupt asshole.

Huard needs to call it quits, no question. But after having QB'd in this league for as long as he has, and with his knowledge from as many teams for which he played, he'd make a decent QB coach.

And no, I don't think Huard is an assest.

I read the article and his top-side comparables are Donnovan McNabb and Trent Green. First of all, he doesn't have the physical tools or draft status that Donnovan McNabb does so I really discount that. That leaves Trent Green. There were 8 comparable QBs. A 1 in 8 chance to develop into Trent Green? Wooo HOOO.

Those aren't the kind of odds you want to wager a franchise on. Keep him around, but he should be a distant, distant plan B. If you bet on him, you're nuts.

Using statistics to compare quarterbacks is a terrible idea.

Go look at top 5 QB picks since the merger. Odds look alot better.

Yes, but Big Ben, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco's first starts ran an offense predicated on using the run game to force 8 guys in the box to force easier completions too. I realize that the spread is an easier offense for a QB to run, but I would argue that the NFL version of the spread is harder for a young QB to run than an offense that is unapologetically "run first."

Harder for a RB to accel, given the hand-off is way behind the LOS. D-line reads the play easier, letting the LBs and DBs read and cover better.

If Croyle is back next year, he would beat out Thigpen. He can't stay healthy. They have to either draft or find a QB for 09.

As opposed to the West Coast offense or a run heavy play action offense? The spread is predicated on giving him time behind a bad line and giving him a look at the defense out the gate. The throws aren't any easier.

Who says we should wager the franchise on Thigpen? I have never read on epost that definitively says that. I have read where peoepl are not convinced we take a QB at #3 this year. This team has a lot of issues. I don't think that's a ridiculous thought.

I am glad Piolo is running this team rather than the narrow minded assholes around here who will bitch for years if we do take a QB at 3 and he ends up sucking after bitching all offseason that we have to draft a QB at 3.

1. It is very rare to have a draft pick high enough to have a shot at a QB who is identified before the draft to have this much potential. We may not get the opportunity to take a QB with this much talent again for a long time. If not now, when?

2. This narrow minded asshole has never even bitched about taking Ryan Sims. He looked like the right pick at the time. He wasn't. There are going to be some busts in the NFL. I did bitch about Herm because I didn't want him in the first place. Some people on here change their opinions more often than their underwear. That's not me.

Who's "Croyle" :D

Don't forget, we have Quinn Gray. Who knows what kind of mad skillz he'll be able to exzibit ona tha foozball field!!!11holler!!!

I wasn't specifically referring to you. I also am not in the camp that the top 2 QB's will be the quote " franchise QB" everyone is screaming about. It has been stated by Kyper and other draft experts that neither of the guys are close to Matt Ryan.

Look at it this way, if we didn't have such a question at QB, lets say we had Green from 5 years ago, and we had the #3 pick, would you be even slightly excited about Sanchez or Bradford at #3?

It's like your car breaks down and you go to the car lot and buy an overpriced car made by a company you have little knowledge of because well, I need a car and dammit I am going to buy one of the first ones I see or else I may never see another car again and then I'm stuck walking the rest of my life.

I believe the need for a "franchise QB" has caused their potential to be greatly exaggerated.

JMO

smitty, you can't be serious. Croyle couldn't beat you for the QB position.
He showed nothing in his abilities and as you say, he can't stay healthy. You have to figure the can't stay healthy as part of the equation.

You are absolutely correct about drafting or finding a new QB.

Factoring in the staying healthy, he would lose, but if you are just going on QB performance during TC between the two, it isn't close. I have watched them both in TC.......but Brodie ended up having the body of a glass jar :doh!:

Bring Thigpen back to compete. If he can play under center and continues to improve the Chiefs made a good find. If he can't improve then not much wasted.

I don't think how a player, especially a quarterback, looks in training camp predicts how they well handle the pressure of an NFL game. There's really no evidence at all the Croyle can read an NFL defense, or make throws under pressure, so even if Croyle could stay healthy, he hasn't proven anything other than he has a good training camp arm.

It's not impossible, it's just damn unlikely. That's the point I've been trying to make for awhile now. It's like plate discipline in baseball. One would think it's easy to coach up and work into a player and it just isn't. Guys that don't walk in the minors won't walk in the pros. There are some outliers (Jose Reyes), but not many.

Thigpen may be the outlier, but it's pretty unlikely. And those 3 completions per game are pretty huge when you consider those as 3 more first downs. Additionally, completion % is indicative of more than just how well he completes passes, it also speaks to where he puts them when he does. A QB with a higher completion % is also more likely to put a ball in a position to keep his reciever in full stride for YAC yards. More likely to connect on a deep pass, more likely to keep his guys healthy. It's more than just those 3 completions.

I don't see it happening. I'm still torn on drafting a QB at 3 b/c I'm not in love with either of the options (and Crabtree is a monster). However, there's no way we stop looking for a QB on Tyler Thigpen's account.

especially in a training camp led by Herm Edwards.

3 completions can be huge, but it doesn't mean it was always Thigpen's fault. I thought his accuracy was very spotty, but it doesn't help that the #1 WR on team was in the top 3 for dropped passes and other than Tony G there really wasn't a lot of help at the WR position.

If you're going to give him a pass for D-Bowe's drops, you have to also take away credit for any # of balls he forced in to TG that wouldn't have been caught by a mere mortal.

Thigpens pass catchers, on balance, did more to help him than hurt him. You take the good with the bad when it comes to that sort of thing.

And I haven't event gotten into the simplicity of the offense he ran.

I think you can say without hesitation that he was one of the 3 least accurate QBs in football last year. The stats can't be taken as gospel when viewed in a vacuum. However, when viewed in concert with his performance, it seems that the stats are pretty accurate. For every ball Bowe drops, TG makes a miracle. Ultimately it's fair to say that at least 1/2 his balls were not well thrown.

That's not acceptable and unlikely to change.