McShays updated top 10 draft.
 

Per ESPNnews


1. Lions
Matt Stafford QB

2. Rams
Jason Smith OT

3. Chiefs
Aaron Curry LB

4. Seahawks
B.J. Raji DT

5. Browns
Malcolm Jenkins CB

6. Bengals
Andre Smith OT

7. Raiders
Mike Crabtree WR

8. Jaguars
Jeremy Maclin WR

9. Packers
Eugene Monroe OT

10. 49ers
Mark Sanchez QB


I like the Curry pick. Jason Smith at 2 supprised me...

Hrmmm......I doubt Crabtree falls to the raiders.....With Pioli, i could imagine us taking LB at #3

No way we pass on a QB for a LB.

What are the odds we shoot at Raji and take a DT 2 years in a row?

My guess is not likely. That's over $100 million dollars tied up in 2 players of the same position.

Good point. Although it is nice to see some defensive guys climbing the board now.

I think the only way we take a defensive player is if Pioli wants to go to a 3-4 immediately, and if so the main part that we're missing is the dominant edge rusher. We don't have one on our roster, and we will get burned if we try to run the 3-4 without one.

Everette Brown or Aaron Maybin could fill that role, but hopefully we'd trade down if Pioli decided to go that route, rather than take either at #3.

I like Curry only if we're committing to the 3-4. If we intend for him to be a soul-killing death machine like DeMarcus Ware, Suggs or Merriman, then I'm okay with that. If he's going to be just another 4-3 OLB like DJ, he's not worth that pick.

I'm with the group that thinks Dorsey could be a very good (but ultimately drafted too high) DE in a 3-4 scheme, so I'm not opposed to the concept.

I still think Crabtree's your only true difference-maker though. I'd be shocked to see him slip by Seattle.

I would say we could use the NT, as well. If we can trade down and accumulate more picks and still get Raji-I think we are ahead of the curve.

Yeah, but I think we could get by for a year or so with Tank as NT if we needed to. However, I don't see anyone on our roster that could provide the edge pass rush needed from an OLB in a 3-4, a la Ware, Farrior, Porter, Merriman, etc.

Curry isn't a good fit for the 3-4 he's a MLB in that scheme...

And McShay is doing what McShay does he's moving his board around due to other guys rankings...Mike Mayock put Jason Smith as the top OT and now look...

The only person that I could possibly see doing it.....would be Pollard. And I'll probably get flamed for saying that.

Here's the reader's digest version of part of my plan...pick up free agents Bart Scott and Karlos Dansby, re-sign DJ to a reasonable contract or tag and trade. Draft Raji in the first round, (after a trade down) , draft Zack Follett in the 3rd round,
5th round-draft MLBer Worrell Williams.

That's a lot of money in LBs.

And not a single one is a pass rusher. The trade down is the stupid thing though.

Just for shits.....this is my transition to the 3-4.

Sign Terrell Suggs to play OLB. Move DJ to ILB. Pollard would be moved from SS to the OLB spot opposite Suggs. Do we know if he can play it effectively? No. But we also no that it's going to take more than one year to transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4.

Tank can fill in at the NT spot. McBride and Dorsey can fill in at the end positions. That leaves 1 LB spot that needs to be filled.....going into the draft.

1st round - QB
2nd round - Clint Sintim if he's there.
3rd round - BPA
4th round - Worrell Williams ILB Cal

Curry is not bad at 3. Better than a QB

ROFL

what in the world gives you any indicator that Pollard has any Rush End ability?

That's stranger than some people assuming that Derrick Johnson could do it without seeing him ever really try.

The draft stuff really brings out dumbasses doesn't it?

Rush ends are usually big LB's that played DE in college... I don't really see a guy that too small to even be a LB filling that role..

Have you seen our LBers?:D

Most likely, I can see us using the transition tag on DJ and trading his ass.

Who'd take him? What would you get? A 4th rounder, tops?

A 4th rounder is nothing to sneeze at. I'm not sure what the going rate is, but I could see a trade of him plus our 5th and 6th round picks, netting us a low 2nd round pick to mid 3rd round.

My problem with DJ is, is it him or the guys he's surrounded by on the field? He's shown flashes of brilliance, but I think now is the time to get something for him, if we don't really believe he will be elite-some team will take a chance-the Bengals, maybe. Saints. Jags. Seahawks to name a few.

I said we could try him there.....I didn't say he was the perfect fit.

I think DJ is DJ. That's all there is to him.

He was a poor choice at #15 overall. If Albert performed like DJ, he wouldn't have seen the field this past season because Herb Taylor would have beat him out.

I think if he had two studs next to him he could make more things happen, but he's been handcuffed for years with a hodge-podge team Carl kept trotting out there. I really believe he could upgrade a LBing group- he's had very little help, IMO and the Cover Two doesn't fit his skillset in the least. I'm still of the belief we should trade him now and get a good draft pick in exchange, depending on a fair offer.

At least DJ is servicable which is more than we can say for our other LB's. I've got a bit of a problem getting rid of our only decent LB for a 4th round pick.

I understand U have a USC affiliation....so bias will be noted.
So Stafford Goes to Detroit.....U think Sanchez is the pick? Honestly. @ #3?
NO F'n way IMO....but help me see the light.

To me (and apparently a bunch of professional draft analysts who are predicting that he'll go at #3, as ridiculous as that sounds to you), his arm, accuracy, touch, poise, familiarity with a pro-style system, and work ethic paint a pretty nice picture.

Let's flip the script. What makes Sanchez unworthy of the #3 pick?

Experience and dare I say adversity. Sanchez had a great first year as a starter, but he would be the first player taken in the first round to succeed in the NFL with his limited number of starts.

ROFL

So you like all that he has to offer (arm, accuracy, touch, poise, worked in a pro-style system and work ethic) but he's not worthy of being drafted where we are.....because he's not experienced.

:spock: It's not like we're 1 player away from a SB. You grab the franchise QB in the 1st round and you let him battle it out in training camp. If he doesn't win....he sits a year to learn the system.

This is a great point. His edge rushing is one of his best capabilities. Look at his production on special teams. I think he's being underutilized in coverage. He should be blitzing like crazy a la Adrian Wilson.

The only problem is that the best time for a young qb to learn the system is when you have a GOOD veteran QB in place. Like at Arizona. If Kurt retires this year, Leinart is going to be awesome because of the experience he's building. He's learning the correct ways to succeed from a proven, veteran QB. We don't have that situation. I say stick with Thiggy.

Ok....and then what? What happens if Thigpen flops horribly next year? Then we draft a QB in the 2010 draft? Yeah because Bradford, Tebow and McCoy are such great prospects.

What you do is you grab Sanchez or Stafford with the #3 pick. You let him sit behind Thigpen (if he can't beat him out in TC) and let Thigpen show you what he can do. Worst case scenario....Thigpen sucks and you let him go after the next season. Best case scenario....Thigpen performs well and you have trade bait.

And to the whole proven, veteran QB issue.....pick one up in FA. It's not like Croyle is the future of this team. Huard isn't good either. I would pick up a veteran in FA that not only has experience but also knows that he's going to be in a backup role.

I think Sanchez had a very good first year as a starter. He showed lots of promise. I don't think that in the last 15 years or so there has been a first or second round QB that succeeded in the NFL with so few starts as Sanchez. They've all busted. Experience is a HUGE issue.

I don't think it is wise to draft Sanchez and then let him battle it out with Thigpen. IMHO, it is one or the other and you need a real veteran QB next year who can run whatever system Pioli/head coach end up running.

I'm sorry, we're in complete disagreement.

DJ has not performed like the #15 overall pick of the draft. He's performed more along the lines of a 3rd or 4th rounder. If you told me that Donnie Edwards was drafted #15 overall and DJ was drafted in the 4th (the exact opposite of reality), that would buy. But as we all know, that isn't the case.

DJ isn't a game-changing player. I was at the Jets game when he had a sure INT for 6 points, sealing the game. He dropped it. He does those types of things time and time and time again. And this past season, he was bit by the injury bug.

While the defense would improve dramatically if even average players were a the other OLB and MLB positions, Derrick Johnson's play would be the same.

He's just not a "special" player. The Chiefs missed again.

Leinart will never be awesome in Todd Haley's scheme.

Leinart is a West Coast Offense guy, accurate dink and dunk.

Haley is a long-ball guy. Leinart doesn't have the arm.

It doesn't matter where he's drafted. What matters is how he performs on the field.

Matt Cassel hadn't started a game since high school. While I wouldn't want him as the QB of the Chiefs, it's one example of a guy stepping in and playing well. Drew Brees had his ups and downs but was certainly ready to start for the Chargers after being drafted in the second round.

You're forgetting the fact that Sanchez was at USC for four years. He's not a true junior, he didn't bounce around from school to school. He played very well at USC.

So what if he's not ready to start in 2009? Very few QB's are ready to start their first year in the NFL. If he's not, sit him for year. But honestly, I don't think that'll be the case. I think he'll start immediately for whomever drafts him.

I say absolutely to Stafford, still not 100% convinced on Sanchez...Either way I'm concerned that without a solid foundation around him, either guy is gonna get his lunch ate in an early stage of their development. The plus to experience is that they learn how to handle adversity, and gain confidence in their abilities the more they play. Flacco and Ryan came into situations where teams underachieved, but still had a pretty solid core. Nice lines and solid Defenses. KC has very little right now and a young QB running for his life and constantly behind isnt going to develop as well as a guy that gets a chance to read progressions, make proper throws, and see results.

JMO

The top of the draft is about potential, not experience.

I think this goes to my point that he went to a team with all the pieces in place and was able to develop because of it. He has a great line giving him protection, a defense that you dont feel you have to carry so you push...
Then a couple of years to practice with a bunch of professionals who have had success.

Cassel sat for three years. Are you okay if Sanchez had to sit for two years?

Cassel played behind Tom Brady.

Sanchez won't be playing behind anyone.

BIG difference.

You know what happens when you don't draft on potential and draft more on what a guy is...you get Tamba Hali, hows that working out?

But, but..we have Tyler Thigpen. ROFL

Or you can draft on potential and get Gholston...:D

I agree he's not a special player, but I believe he's worth a 3rd rounder to some team.

I think the point here is he sat behind someone he could watch and learn from. He'll have none of that in KC...He'll be too busy running for his life if he's forced into the lineup with little experience and a poor line.

i heard that Sanchez loves playing "behind" other guys

Your not dumb enough to call a player a bust after one season are you?

You haven't read his other posts, have you?

Why do people automatically assume Pioli is going to run a 3-4?

NEWSFLASH!!!!! Pioli isn't the ****in coach of the team. We don't know who the ****in coach is going to be. BB has always ran a 3-4 from what I can remember. Pioli doesn't coach shit. His job in NE was to help find the players that would fit in BB 3-4 scheme. Pioli doesn't call what defense a team is gonna run. In fact I dont know a GM that makes that call to begin with. They obviously have say in what philosophy they want the team to have. He may go after a coach thats strictly 4-3 or 3-4, we dont know.

What I do know is that from what we've drafted recently, we have NO ONE that can play a 3-4 scheme. Blowing up that now would IMO regress this defense if anything. People who think Dorsey and Tyler can make great 3-4 ends are smoking something that I want. Never can I remember either of them doing that in college, and now we expect them just to jump in with Boston NT Raji and away we go. Some people here are nuts.

This defense can regress?

You may be right in that Pioli might not dictate the defensive scheme, but let's assume, for the sake of argument that Pioli hires Haley.

Pioli's background is with Belichick and the 34 and Haley, while an offensive coach is still a Parcells guy, so I think it highly likely they both would be on the same page and will look to transition to a 34.

What you would expect then is for them to find the right coach to run the 34 (John Mitchell, D-Line, Keith Butler, LBs for the Steelers, or Todd Bowles, DB coach of the Dolphins), sign a couple of free agents that fit, and draft.

NEWSFLASH!!!!! Nobody is saying that we would automatically switch to a 3-4. If Pioli and (insert headcoach here) wanted to switch to the 3-4 then they would more than likely run a hybrid 3-4/4-3 until they could get the players in for the system. And you people act like we're SOOOOOO awesome at the 4-3. If they wanted to switch to the 3-4 then there already are 2 defensive FAs that they could go out and get. Terrell Suggs and Chris Canty.

McShay is pulling the "move my draft board around, make it look a little ridiculous" to get people talking. I can't see anyway he leaves his final mock draft looking like this. We shall see though.

Yeah, a little early to call him a bust. But, if he can not find a way to make plays under Ryan in NY now, I think the bust title will be more deserved.

I never said that we were good at the 3-4. What we have now is personnel proto-typical for a 4-3 defense.

We have no NT, and putting Dorsey and Tyler out on the ends is just a terrible idea.

Ryan Leaf had potential, Peyton Manning was drafted on what a guy is.

The Chiefs don't have 4-3 or 3-4 personnel.......no matter what scheme they decide to go with nearly every player in the front 7 will be replaced either way.

Maybe eventually but that certainly won't happen overnight.

McBride, Tyler, Dorsey and Hali will be a part of the Chiefs defense for the next several years, regardless of scheme.

Derrick Johnson is the only average linebacker on the roster so I'm assuming he stays.

But he can go for all I care. While he's not a bust, he certainly hasn't performed even close to the level of the #15 overall pick in the draft.

An entire roster can be changed very quickly, it's not like there's anyone in place right now...

If this team goes to 3-4 Tamba Hali has no position hell he doesn't have a position in a 4-3 either.

Yeah but come on, Dude. As much as you hate guys like Hali and McBride, the Chiefs aren't going to find suitable replacements in free agency or with only seven draft picks.

The transformation will take a couple of years.

Wow!

We actually agree on something Mecca! :D

Better get it out of the way before the draft and free agency start...:)

That's a bit melodramatic. Hali is at least a league average LE, if not slightly above average. Dorsey has the potential to be an all-pro DT. Tyler, I don't really know. He could be an above average player in a 4-3.

The biggest problem is that the defense has no RDE, or any linebackers other than Johnson, who himself isn't much to sneeze at.

With that being said, our players have been playing in an antiquated scheme that does not suit their talents. This team should at the very least, run a base 4-3 with more of a blitzing element for a year.

We aren't going to be any good next year, anyway, and we aren't going to get a 12-14 sack guy with the value in this draft.

Get the QB, fix the right side of the line, another skill position player, and part of the linebacking corps. Next year, finish up the LBs and add your premier pass rusher.

****ING THIS.

I mostly agree with you.

Would you concede drafting a DE altogether though? Or just temper your enthusiasm that you'll find an elite pass rusher this year?

If we stay with a 43 base, then Hali is a solid, albeit unspectacular, RDE.

If, however, we switch to a 34, he has no place.

He isn't big or strong enough to hold down a DE spot, nor is he fast enough to play LB.

His only place is as a DE is a hybrid 43/34, until teh transition is complete.

I have no problem with drafting a DE, or any player, if the value is there. We aren't going to get the return on results with a top 3 pick this year if we use it on a DE.

The big problem, and something I think people need to get past, is the idea that there is a true 3 down DE in the draft this year, or that they are all that common. People need to start thinking about End by committee. I have no problem getting a guy in the middle rounds who is a speed rusher extraordinaire who can't defend the run for shit.

Hell, I wouldn't mind drafting a guy like Kyle Moore as a first and second down end and using another pick on a speed demon for third down.

You can't just have four ends anyway.

Then, next year, if you have a chance to draft an elite RDE, you take him, and can still put your speedster on the left side in passing situations, or mix and match, moving McBride inside in those situations.

I agree with you here, but I also agree with Mecca on the fact that we do not really have good players for 43 or 34. We lack a ton of talent. I agree we will not just cut all our 1st and 2nd rounders. I would really like us to switch to a 34 since it seems to give teams a little more versatility, and the college DE's coming out now are all OLB. They are built for speed to disrupt the spread O-bonanza, that is the NCAA.

I think it would give us a better chance of finding 'our' guy in the draft year in and year out. That being said, I think if we signed a player like Suggs who could play OLB in the 34, but can play RDE as well in the 43, would be an ideal pick up. We could run a base 34, but have the benefit of being able to go to a 43 front if it helps us in a game. I know Dorsey is a cover 2 DT, but the cover 2 doesnt cut it anymore, so he will have to adapt, and with great coaching I think he can do great at the RDE in a 34. He would have basically the same assignment he had at LSU as their DT. Crash the line on run plays, shed the block and stop the runner. He was known for his ability to hold the point of attack and crash down the line when the play was away from him in college, that is what we would be asking of him form the DE postion. On passing plays, it would essentially be what he was doing before as well. Splitting a double team and trying to get to the QB.

Tank is average no matter what. Turk is best in the 34 as a DE, Boone as well. DJ would probably benefit from playing the ILB in a 34. On top of that they all have played the 43 now, which gives the team the added bonus of being able to play both for a year. We have money to get LB's in FA, and we can draft DE prospect in the 2nd (QB in the first). Our corners can lock down in man (as evidenced this year from the lack of pressure on the QB-- we werent always in zone).

I think we can go either way, I just hope we go 34 to benefit us more down the road. Just my $.02.

I dont care how good Curry is, the value is shitty, when you take a LB at the number 3 pick

The value of a pick is measured before and on draft day. That is only percieved value though. It's like DV said about Jared Allen. He turned out to be a steal in the 4th round but had we known how good he would be we would have drafted him in the 1st. If teams knew that Ray Lewis was gonna be the player he turned out to be he would have been the 1st pick in the draft. If Curry gets drafted in the top five and turns out like Lewis then he was a great value pick. DJ was a great value pick when we picked him in the teens but at this point his percieved value wasn't as great as his play till now.



PhilFree:arrow:

Exactly...to say Hali can't play LE is ludicrous look at his past two years before this year. Thank God you wrote this before this thread got blown out of proportion.

You know what I want to do?

Get a real defensive coach in here that knows how to coach according to players' talents, and not some bullshit cookie-cutter scheme.

Then I will be able to declare who sucks, and who doesn't, because frankly with Gun, he was as much of the problem.

As it stands right now, I want the QB, but would be fine with Crabtree if he's the BPA.

And I do not think that Dorsey can play end in a 3-4. I don't know of any scouting report that made such a claim prior to last year's draft. Every one that mentioned him did so as a 3-4 nose tackle. He was even quoted in an interview as saying he'd put on weight if the coaches felt that was his best position.

He's not going to be 6-1 and 340 pounds and have any kind of quickness or speed, and putting the #5 overall pick at end in a 3-4 is a complete waste. It would basically be like drafting a weak side linebacker for a 4-3 at that position, and in many ways, worse.

People seriously overrate the 3-4 defense. It's no more inherently effective than a 4-3, and it's harder to get players for it. 3-4 NTs are harder to find than quarterbacks.

Half of the top 10 Ds were 4-3s, the other half were 3-4s. Last year, only 3/10 of the top Ds were 3-4s. The year before that it was 4.

So with that being said, why flush the one unknown on the D with the most talent to move to a scheme that isn't inherently any better, but marginalizes him?

We can play a base 4-3 and get another D tackle who has a bigger frame.

Larry Fitzgerald is really earning Michael Crabtree a lot of money, and it's ridiculous.

When Crabtree has played a down in a pro-style offense, learns how to run a route, or has hands even remotely approaching those of Fitzgerald, he might then be worthy of a top 10 pick.

I liked Crabtree long before Fitzgerald went on this run.

You may have, but he's shot up the boards and people are talking about him in the top 3 despite doing nothing. He's not Calvin or Andre Johnson, he's not some kind of elite talent.