|
#3 overall pick... a 20 year history
08 Matt Ryan
07 Joe Thomas 06 Vince Young 05 Braylon Edwards 04 Larry Fitzgerald 03 Andre Johnson 02 Joey Harrington 01 Gerard Warren 00 Chris Samuels 99 Akili Smith 98 Andre Wadsworth 97 Shawn Springs 96 Simeon Rice 95 Steve McNair 94 Heath Shuler 93 Garrison Hearst 92 Sean Gilbert 91 Bruce Pickens 90 Cortez Kennedy 89 Barry Sanders Draw your own conclusions. As for myself, if this list is a good indicator, I would go DT, DE, OT or WR... unfortunately we don't have a need that pressing at OT and the DE, DT WR prospects are iffy that high... I am not in the anti-QB at all cost crowd.. I just really am not sold on THESE two QBs... esp. Stafford... |
12 out of 20 picks have been really good.
|
To be honest, this may be the first draft that I really don't have a preference on where we draft yet. Last year I was heavy on OL/DL and that happened. We have a lot of holes on our team so I just want the BPA period.
|
there are no conclusions to draw
it's just a list of picks.... |
Quote:
|
Three Pro Bowls QB's, one average QB and two awful QB's.
That's a pretty good percentage with the third pick for 15 years. |
Interesting trend. From this list, we can expect our pick to be young, most likely male, and with some college education.
|
Quote:
not trying to be an ass, but you can't draw any conclusions about the relative merits of drafting a position with the 3rd pick from this...there is no causal relationship between the selection # and the player's success, when limited to a single draft position.... comparing a position to it's success ratio across all rounds of the draft gives you "data" that can be used to draw conclusions....this doesn't not even sure why i care, so i'll leave you all to your conclusion drawing,,,, |
I think the Talking Can is a total douche bag.
That is all... |
Quote:
Who was the average QB? I guess you would also be happy with a "Pro Bowl" QB like Vince Young too? And are you anointing Matt Ryan as a Pro Bowl QB? |
Quote:
McNair: Super Bowl QB, former MVP. Matt Ryan: Rookie of the year, (short on Pro Bowl in year one). Vince Young: Pro Bowl 2006. And who the **** cares anyway? It's just a spot. It's not like it's a "Jinxed" number to picking at or something ridiculous. |
Quote:
|
BUT MOMMY I'M SCAAAAAARED OF DRAFTING A QB
|
You know what conclusion I draw from that?
You don't take a OLB with the pick. |
Quote:
Talking Can... there is plenty of data here to draw a number of conclusions... for example, you don't draft OLB, kicker, punter etc at this position... |
The conclusion I can draw from this is that people are scared shitless to draft a QB.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
I'm saying that four decent picks were made along with two epic busts at QB. Clear enough for you, Doomy? |
Quote:
How do you draw that conclusion from those picks? |
Quote:
I would imagine that out of those 6 picks, that only one or two of them would anyone consider a decent pick at #3. I don't know how anyone could consider Young, Harrington, Schuler or Smith anywhere near good enough for that slot. THey would all be busts. And this may be the first time ever I have EVER heard Harrington referred to as an average NFL QB. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
I am scared of THESE two QBs, I wanted Flacco and Henne last year. I am definitely not against drafting a QB... but junior QBs don't have a great track record... And if you look at the list, QBs at the #3 spot don't either... McNair is the one good QB out of 6. To be honest I wasn't a big Matt Ryan fan last year, and he will probably work out well.. If it comes to Stafford or Sanchez.. I would take the one with higher upside (Sanchez) but as I said, neither excites me nor have they all season. So, because I don't like those two players.. I am afraid of drafting a QB? |
If you liked Chad Henne more than these 2 guys I'm going to honestly ask you what the hell you were looking at.
|
You can't be a great team without a great QB. That's why we should pick Graham Harrell in the 7th round or so. LMAO
|
Quote:
Obviously. |
I think it's funny that Austin liked the 2 QB's I didn't like at all.
|
Quote:
However, if you look at that, one could conclude that if you don't simply throw a QB into the fire immediately, and give him some time to sit and learn, you could allow him to develop into an MVP calibre QB, since the only one of those QBs that really turned into anything was given time to develop. But then Matt Ryan could debunk that theory. The fact is, it really is impossible to draw any conclusions from this. What has happened with QBs selected in the past has no bearing on how these guys will turn out. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
And to respond to Mecca, I wanted Flacco a late 1st or Henne with a 2nd... I honestly feel that Sanchez is gonna either be a great pick or a bust at #3... I am leaning toward bust... but if we pick him I hope I am wrong. Stafford I can't stand... just never liked him. but either way, they bear the curse of the junior QB... hard to overcome. Again, if Sanchez stayed in school and had another great year and we sucked enough to be able to draft him I would have been elated... as it is, not so much. |
Quote:
I thought Vince Young was taken too high but the owner was enamored with his size, mobility and arm. Before his mental breakdown, he proved me wrong. I think it's way to early to label him a bust, unless he retires from football with mental issues. Smith sucked. Major reach. Schuler was a joke but the Redskins at least made up with that selection by choosing Gus Ferrote in the 7th. These comparisons have absolutely ZERO impact on the success or failure of Sanchez or Stafford so basically, this was an exercise in futility. |
All I know is everytime I watched Chad Henne play I was thoroughly unimpressed.
And Flacco put up the red flags that I would put up on QB. |
Quote:
I almost stopped reading there, because I cannot honestly believe you are being serious. But I actually do agree with your last part. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
Honestly, who cares? Bill Parcells obviously liked Henne and Newsome liked Flacco. Those are two of the best in the business, so I will trust their judgment over yours. |
When a QB goes from 3rd round to 1st round during the combine because he starts showing off his arm he throws up a red flag to me..
I'll still go with that strategy more often that not you'll be right for avoiding them..the Ravens took 2 QB's like that one was a bust the other one looks alright after 1 year, but I also don't think he was as good as some made him out to be. |
Quote:
And Parcells draft history is really mixed...Bobby Carpenter anyone? |
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
and to be honest, this list was supposed to be about more than just ONE position at that pick....
Our team won't collapse if we don't pick a [insert pet position here] this year. |
Quote:
Well if we don't go QB this year who the hell is there next year at QB? I'm not seeing anything.. However I see 2 possible elite DE prospects and 2 of the best safety prospects ever. |
Quote:
Jim Druckenmiller was a bust. Ryan Leaf was a bust. Cade McNown was a bust. Joey Harrington is still playing in the NFL and has won some games. He got completely screwed over in Detroit (who hasn't?). I'm not going to say the guy is anything better than average but Sean Payton's got him on his roster so that definitely says a little bit about the guy. The guy's got nearly 15,000 yards passing and a QB rating of 69.1 while playing on shitty ****ing teams (Detroit, Miami & Atlanta). |
Quote:
How can you dispute that? Do you honestly believe that he will suddenly suck? |
Quote:
Can you name me ONE junior QB who didn't suck? And don't name Big Ben, #1 I don't think he is that good and #2 he was a 4 year junior with 38 starts.... |
Quote:
|
Quote:
Look no further than your Pro Bowl QB at the number 3 spot, Vince Young. |
Quote:
He was a number 3 pick in the draft, and has been a backup for over half of his career. That is the definition of bust. Ryan Sims is on an NFL roster, so clearly he is not a bust either. |
Quote:
|
In other words, the No. 3 pick has either been boom or bust. I wouldn't be surprised if the other top 5 spots are the same way.
|
Quote:
I believe it's worth gambling (which won't be MUCH of a gamble if pioli is all that he's been anointed as) to get that high upside guy (sanchez or stafford)... you draft either (I'd prefer stafford--he's been nails every time I've seen him, but sanchez may have a higher ceiling) and let him sit for at least a year and learn the ropes. you know, get a competant QB coach and offensive coordinator, build the offense around him, and put him in situations where he can build his confidence. anyway, I digress. the absolute abject fear of QBs around here is baffling. you'd think that everybody would be sick to death of other teams having that guy and shredding us. remember the 90's? just take a look at who beat us in the playoffs. every playoff loss this decade? peyton ****ing manning. srsly. when's it gonna be our turn to have that franchise guy to rip OTHER people's hearts out? |
Quote:
I have no problem taking risks... but the odds are stacked HEAVILY against a junior QB succeeding... what makes either of these two any different? With the amazing failure rate of junior QBs... I can't imagine it is just coincidence.... Take a look at a PARTIAL list.... (Big Ben had 38 starts so he is a bit of an exception) This is a list of guys that teams "gambled" on... Junior QBs are the SUCKER bet of the draft... If you still want to take that gamble.. I would advise staying away from Vegas, that town was built off bad math.... Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, and Michael Vick ... Iguess you could squeeze Aaron Rodgers inthat list... but he was a JuCo transfer so I don't consider him the same as the "true" juniors... |
Quote:
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
a while back, I did a bit of research of first round qbs relative to where they were drafted, and whether they played right off the bat or sat on the bench and learned the ropes. overwhelmingly, the guys who were eased into the lineup were those with the greatest success. you can look at almost every qb on your list, and they mostly played right off the bat. my take is that, in a perfect world, you draft the senior qb that started 40 games, had a high completion percentage, and played in a pro style offense. this isn't a perfect world. we have stafford and sanchez, who have flashed the ability to be that franchise qb we've lacked, really, since len dawson. and unfortunately, that's what the draft is all about. picking young guys with talent and upside. luckily, we have one of the best guys in the nfl doing the picking for us now. if we draft a qb at number three overall, I have all the confidence in the world that pioli will put him in the position to succeed. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
THE definition of a bust is Ryan Leaf The definition of a bust is Akili Smith. The definition of a bust is Cade McNown. Do you think that Jim Plunkett was a "bust"? He was number one overall in pick in 1971, yet by 1978, he was a backup QB for the Raiders. Of course all he did after that was win the Super Bowl in 1981 and 1983. I'm not predicting future greatness for Joey Harrington but stranger things have happened. |
Quote:
Do people ever look beyond W-L and stats? I'm as big a stat guy as anyone on the board, but I at least try to evaluate a player on what they do on the field. I called Chad Pennington "not suitable" after the 2002 season, because I didn't like his weak arm. He had great numbers that year and a playoff win. However, I wrote him off as a championship caliber QB because he could not throw all the passes. You get a good defense in the playoffs and Chad isn't going to deliver. I stick by that assessment to this day. |
My opinion of QB's right now is that just being from a pro style offense puts them ahead of where most QB's are, the college spread fixation is hurting the QB transitions to the next level..
And Sanchez isn't a true junior by the way. |
Quote:
Matt Ryan's rookie non-Pro-Bowl year shows much, much more promise than VY's pro-bowl year. Matt Ryan's way of winning is based on strong fundamental play. VY's winning in 2006, was based on miracle comebacks that are non-sustainable without strong fundamentals. |
It's nice to see Vince Young prove to be what I thought he was...I never thought he could legit play QB in the NFL at an even average level.
|
Quote:
The guy has serious emotional and psychological issues that have nothing to due with football. And, his career is far from over. If history teaches us anything, it's that quarterbacks can comeback and play well at nearly anytime before 40. |
Quote:
|
Let me break this down real fast...
Would you personally feel more comfortable with a player who spent 4 years in a pro style offense at one of the best colleges in the nation, that can play from center, has good footwork, good mechanics, a very good arm, mobility, intangibles all that. He only started 1 year but don't overlook that he had 4 years of development with a team that has as competitive of practices as anyone.. Or would you rather have someone like Colt McCoy who has started a ton of games but it's in the spread formation... I'd tell you in my opinion Sanchez is more ready than McCoy, Bradford, any spread QB. |
Quote:
Almost as bad as calling Joey Harrington an average NFL QB. |
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
I agree, if Pioli thinks the QB that falls to us is worthy of our pick, I'm more than willing to support him drafting the QB. Why, a top quality QB makes it easier for a team to win and can lead us for the next dozen years. Usually, top draft picks have more talent, which helps him be successful. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
I want Sanchez. |
Quote:
|
Quote:
Maybe you missed the whole conversation that post was in reference to... I didn't say anything about Parcells not liking Flacco. I was just pointing out that two of the brightest minds in football liked those 2 QBs who Mecca didn't, and that I would probably trust their judgement over his. |
Quote:
I would rather trade for a YOUNG QB... I don't mind drafting a QB (see last year) but just not ready for the TOTAL leap of faith that comes with drafting a JUNIOR QB... |
Quote:
If I am wrong (hopefully) he could really blow things up... Also, I am not even sure that Stafford has that MUCH better of an arm... |
Quote:
I don't really have any basis for it, but the few times I saw Stafford, I was not terribly impressed. But I wasn't impressed with Ryan either. Shutting up now. |
Quote:
|
First, I’m smart enough to know that scouts evaluate college players much better than I do and I know I may be wrong. As of right now if I were making the #3 pick, I’d choose Sanchez. He seems to have the tools, has leadership skills, and I like his potential to continue developing into a great NFL QB.
|
Quote:
Stafford has started more collegiate games in the best defensive conference in the country than a ton of seniors. Thus, from here on out we'll call him a "senior" based on his NFL development. Feel better? Same thing with Sanchez. Dude is really a "senior." Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain (pretend you're a devoted WPI subscriber). |
Quote:
Who, in your "infinite wisdom" is an AVERAGE NFL QB? Don't EVEN like this shit is rocket-science and can be explained by statistics alone. Are you a Thigpen supporter? |
Quote:
Couch - spread/Mike Leach Smith - spread Grossman - Spurrier's Fun N Gun Ware - Run N Shoot Young - Spread Vick - Option |
Seems like a good pick for a WR :hmmm:
Don't show Haley or Piolis this list! |
Quote:
|
Quote:
ok, half of my not even close to complete list were "gimmick" college players... I can add another 4 or 5 that weren't.... the argument is... what JUNIORS have succeeded in the NFL... maybe I am wrong and it is now TIME for JUNIORS to succeed... but HISTORY shows otherwise so far... ANYONE have a valid statistical argument to contradict me? |
What suprizes me is that there have been no kickers or punters drafted #3
|
| All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:53 AM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.