New Updated Mock
 

1.Detroit Lions: Jason Smith OT Baylor
2.St.Louis Rams: Eugene Monroe OT Virginia
3.San Francisco 49ers:(From KC): Matthew Stafford QB Georgia
4.Seattle Seahawks: Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio St
5.Cleveland Browns: Brian Orakpo DE/LB Texas
6.Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech
7.Oakland Raiders: Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech
8.Jacksonville Jaguars: Mark Sanchez QB USC
9.Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji DT Boston College
10.Kansas City Cheifs(From SF):Everette Brown DE Florida St
11.Buffalo Bills: Brian Cushing LB USC
12.Denver Broncos: Josh Freeman QB Kansas State
13.Washington Redskins: Andre Smith OT Alabama
14.New Orleans Saints: Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest
15.Houston Texans: Clay Matthews LB USC
16.San Diego Chargers: Michael Oher OT Ole Miss
17.New York Jets: Jeremy Maclin WR Mizzou
18.Chicago Bears: Eben Britton OT Arizona
19.Tampa Bay Buccaneers:Chris Wells RB Ohio St
20.Detroit Lions: Tyson Jackson DE LSU
21.Philadelphia Eagles: Robert Ayers DE Tennessee
22.Minnesota Vikings: Vontae Davis CB Illinois
23.New England Patriots: Rey Maualuga LB USC
24.Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Pettigrew TE Okie St.
25.Miami Dolphins: Darius Butler CB Uconn
26.Baltimore Ravens: Percy Harvin WR Florida
27.Inidanapolis Colts: Peria Jerry DT Ole Miss
28.Philadelphia Eagles: William Beatty OT Uconn
29.New York Giants: Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia
30.Tennessee Titans: Alphonso Smith CB Wake Forest
31.Arizona Cardinals: Donald Brown RB Uconn
32.Pittsburgh Steelers: D.J. Moore CB Vandy

Chief's get 2nd rd pick from SF and other disclosed picks Chiefs select Connor Barwin with 2nd rd pick

The Niners GM sucks so I could see them trading for our pick though I would argue if the Lions don't draft a QB one won't be drafted for awhile why would the Jags draft a QB? They gave Gerrard a Contract last season. It'd make sense for the Niners to trade with a team like the Bengals they wouldn't have to pay the drafted player as much and wouldn't have to give up as much for the draft.

If you want Everette Brown dropping to 10 is pretty risky because that is right where he is going to go...

And you better get alot more than a 2 to drop from 3 to 10.

Do you really believe the Giants would pick a RB in that spot?

Insanely stupid.

I can live with going down to 10.

However, the 2nd rounder is not going to be used on another rush linebacker.

Rumor is the guy scored a 15 on his Wonderlic, and tested as being pretty slow. I don't think the Pats are likely to take him.

Of course nobody here cares, but that's ok. Carry on. :)

I'd rather grab Alex Mack instead of Barwin in the 2nd.

For comparisons sake..

The Browns traded up 1 spot from 7 to 6 and gave up a 2nd rounder when they took Winslow.

So we are only getting a 2 to go down from 3-10?

Are you voyager?

What the hell, are they just throwing the value chart away?

I'm not sure. This isn't 10 years ago. It's HARD to get out of those top 5 picks. That means the leverage has changed between the two parties.

Pats didn't get THAT much from the Saints last year for them to move from 10 to 7.

"No. 7: Patriots to Saints. New England traded its first- and fifth-round selections (No. 7 and 164) to New Orleans for New Orleans' first- and third-round selections (No. 10 and 78). "

I don't see Brown or Maclin lasting that long, and it seems early for Sanchez and Freeman both. And Jenkins at 4? Cushing and Matthews both going by 15?

And in general this mock is pretty terrible.

He said other disclosed picks. I liked it because there is no way to know which picks those might be. I think all can agree that the 1st and 2nds will be involved but after that it's just silly to even guess.

PhilFree:arrow:

Bad Buccaneers pick. Chris Wells is going to be the Mark Sanchez of running backs.

I like the trade and the pick, but there is no way in hell that Curry drops to number 14.

I'm not real worried about getting point value per the chart.

If we have a chance to trade down, get MULTIPLE players at positions of need, and we have to give up 200 points of value to do it, **** it.

Do it.

My question is how likely is SF to try and draft another QB that high after just getting burned by Alex Smith?

im not saying we only get a 2nd rounder, i just dont know what else we would get.

Michael Johnson is going to be lucky to be a first rounder let alone in the top 10.

I'd be OK with that trade......If they threwe in Patrick Willis (I think is his name).
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That was a different coach & GM that drafted Smith. The Niners need a QB they won't make the playoffs with Shaun Hill or Alex Smith.

No shit. That trade chart is only a guide anyway and there is nothing written in stone about how to draft players for the NFL.


PhilFree:arrow:

I doub't Pioli takes two project OLB's with the first two picks of the draft.

I love trading down to select Brown at #10.

I'd be a bit surprised to see them take Barwin with the newly acquired #2 though.

Anyone know if were signing Mike Goff? If not I'd say that #2 pick we draft an o-linemen if we sign Goff I say we draft a D-linemen.

I'd love to have Goff.

He came in for a visit and that was the last we heard about it.
I don't think even with the draft we can afford to pass on signing at least 1 veteran O-Lineman to start next season.

If both Sanchez and Stafford are there at the 3 spot Pioli will need a dozen secretaries to field the calls. I'd look for either S.F., T.B., or the Jets to make the biggest push.
Hopefully Brown would be available. If not, maybe Maybin.

Ugh Aaron Maybin ****ing blows.

Dis.

Dropping from 3rd to 10th and only getting a 2nd rounder would not be a good deal for us but the devil is in the details of "other picks".

**** yeah. Or Unger.

Personally, I HATE Brown at Ten.

I've yet to hear a convincing argument that Brown will be Terrell Suggs.

Because that's exactly the type of production you'd expect at #10.

Browns the best pass rusher from this draft in my view so you're not gonna get anything better this year.

Would you complete the trade down to #10 and then trade #10 to the Ravens for Suggs?

Hell yeah! But that would never happen.

Well you never know. I haven't heard anything about a contract being worked out for Suggs as of yet. Maybe they're waiting to see what happens on draft day.

I don't think the Chiefs focus should be on a pass rusher who's not an absolute, sure thing.

Terrell Suggs had like 22 sacks his final year in college. Brown had 13.5. Also, pass rushing OLB's are not uncommon in later rounds.

If Brown goes in the top ten, he'd better produce 10 sacks a year minimum or it's a wasted pick.

Well first and foremost no one is a sure thing, there are guys who produced in college that never produced at the next level...

Also using Suggs as an example is being extreme he has the college record for sacks in a season and had question marks coming into his draft.

Do you have multiple personalities or something? You literally spent days arguing with bdeg in the draft forum that the only place to find pass rush is in the first round. Now, you say that pass rushing OLB's are not uncommon in later rounds.

WTF?

No shit ! What a stupid mock!

Brown projects to be an OLB.

I was speaking mainly about true defensive ends. I mentioned them by name as well (Peppers, Kearse, Bruce Smith, Mario Williams, Neil Smith, etc.).

If he had questions marks, it was by dumb****s. With his size, athleticism, speed and college production there shouldn't have been any question marks.

Put on the brakes, here.

We're not going to get into this again, but the discussion was about impact pass rushers. Meaning both.

If it had been about DE's it would've been an irrelevant point to bring up in the first place.

He weighed 245lbs and put on weight and posted a poor time...teams questioned what his real position was.

Haha Broncos picking Josh Freeman @ 12 !

In all honesty, I think we were talking about two different things and neither of us realized it.

I kept mentioning defensive ends like Mario Williams, Julius Peppers, Neil Smith, Bruce Smith, etc. You mentioned Joey Porter, Lamar Woodley, etc.

IMO, an impact pass rusher is a player like I mentioned. Those guys could go anywhere, play on any defense and be unstoppable. I don't think the same could be said for guys like Woodley, Tuck, etc. Those guys are dependent on the scheme and the players around them

We were definitely both being obtuse, but I think it's still possible to get lucky and find a game-changer later on.

Well, I'd say only a couple of teams questioned that (and were wrong) because there were some pretty good players that went ahead of him at #10.

Carson Palmer, Jordan Gross, Andre Johnson and Kevin Williams. I'm sure that Detroit (Charles Rogers), NYJ (Dewayne Robertson), Jax (Byron Leftwich) and N.O. (Jonathan Sullivan) wish they hadn't questioned his abilities.

I swear, sometimes these teams just over-think this stuff. This shit isn't a science.

Oh, of course I agree. But the key word there is "luck".

I happened to the Chiefs once in 45 years. Those aren't good odds.

You overrate draft picks, I think, if you think everybody at 10 or higher is the next Terrell Suggs.

Right, so by definition, #10 isn't worth a Suggs, and you can't "expect" that type of production.

No, I don't.

DeMarcus Ware & Merriman were both #12 overall. Suggs was #10. There is relative value to my expectation.

I can and do expect it.

The reason why I think it would never happen is because I seriously doubt that Baltimore would part with Suggs, especially when there isn't a suitable, younger replacement at #10.

I'm not saying it's impossible to get an impact pass-rusher in the 10-12 range. Obviously not.

But for every Ware or Merriman or Suggs you can cite, I'm sure with minimal effort I can find the next stud pass rusher who struck out. BC's Mike Mamula comes to mind.

Besides, by definition you've already admitted that Suggs is worth more than a #10 pick.

Then you'd be a completely inappropriate candidate for a front office job.

You don't value picks based on the BEST POSSIBLE outcome. It makes no sense. You ignore risk. You pretend that a top ten pick should be a home run. That's absurd.

It's fine to HOPE for the best, but you can't EXPECT it and make it your value calculation.

Tom Brady was the 199th pick overall. I therefore expect that the 199th pick overall to be a future Hall of Fame player. I have relative value to my expectation.


see -- it doesn't work. I know a one time thing is a statistical anomaly, whereas you have listed 3 good examples for your position. Heck, Dwight Freeney would be a 4th example. But still, you can't value picks based on the best possible outcome. You have to discount it for risk of a bad pick for whatever reason.

The Mamula incident happened more than a decade ago. If you take a look at the top 15 of each draft this decade, the scouts have been right far more often than wrong in regards to a pass rushing DE or OLB. A few have slipped but with good reason (Tuck, Allen, etc.).

Suggs may be worth more than the #10 in this year's draft but I doubt anyone would pay more than that.

*Shrug*

Went back to 1998, which is 10 full drafts ago. Guys that were somewhere between teh suck and "not that special" as pass rushers drafted in the top 13:

1998 Andre Wadsworth (Arizona)(3)
2000 Courney Brown (Browns)(1)
2000 Shaun Ellis (Jets)(12)
2001 Justin Smith (Bengals)(4)
2001 Andre Carter (Niners)(7)
2001 Jamal Reynolds (Packers)(10)

-- note -- in 2002-2005, very few DEs / OLBs were taken in the top 13. Those that were were mostly successful (Ware, Merriman etc.)

2006 Kamerion Wimbley (Browns) (13)

Book still out on:

2007 Gaines Adams (Tampa Bay) (4)
2007 Jamaal Anderson (Atlanta)(8)
2007 Adam Carriker (Rams)(13)

Whoever in 2008

This

I think the Browns take him if he's on the board at 5. Depends who else is available I guess they could really like a QB.

So, this decade (starting in 2001):

Justin Smith has 50.5 sacks.
Andre Carter's got 52.5 sacks
Jamal Reynolds was a true bust due to injuries (I'm sure the Pack would have loved Julius Peppers, who went just behind him).

Again, the NFL teams were mostly right about these guys. No one can predict injuries.

nice pick.