Too Bad The Chiefs Are Married to Todd Haley
 

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Too Bad The Chiefs Are Married to Todd Haley

by Matt Conner

Let me be very, very clear from the outset: the Kansas City Chiefs should not make any changes to their head coaching situation for 2010. Now with that said, let me write an entire article that seems to point to the opposite.

My primary thoughts at this time of day are spurred by the ridiculous buzz swirling current NFL head coaching wanna-bes salivating over all kinds of wonderfully desperate situations. The Redskins, Buccaneers, Bills, Bears, Browns, Raiders, Cowboys and more all sit with neon "vacancy" signs up (or pending ones, it seems) and the likes of Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden, Mike Holmgren and hot assistants like Leslie Frazier (Minnesota's defensive coordinator) are all in the spotlight. And that's with a few weeks still left of the regular season.

It's the sort of rumors that fans of losing franchises love to read about, considering there's not much on-field product worth pondering. It's also something Kansas City fans must remember from this time a year ago when "what ifs" floated around Arrowhead like Rocky Mountain cloud formations. But unlike last year, this season's coaching candidates are absolutely off the charts in terms of experience, expertise and sheer reputation. And that's a shame the Chiefs cannot be in on this bunch.

More after the jump:

Star-divide
Of course, the Chiefs won the grand prize last year, when the front office candidates available looked like this year's coaching hires. Scott Pioli was the head of the class, the best in the business, and when he shook hands with Clark Hunt, every KC fan (and NFL fan for that matter) knew there were much better days ahead in the City of Fountains. But the same couldn't be said of Pioli's choice for head coach.

Now, the Chiefs must sit this off-season with Todd Haley while the most beautiful head coaching class in a long time struts their stuff for teams in need. It's the equivalent of being over the salary cap next summer while having to passively watch the upcoming free agent class of 2010 in the NBA, when LeBron, Chris Bosh and others change permanent addresses. When such options are available, one can't help but wonder what it would look like for a Cowher or Shanahan to walk the sidelines of the red and gold.

We've seen unending posts both favoring Todd Haley and slamming the first-year HC. There are valid points to be made on all sides. But we are married. You don't change head coaches that quickly, so we have what we have and the absolute worst move would be to can Haley at this point. He deserves to grow with the job, to see this thing through and fans should understand that. That doesn't mean, however, that we don't look at the current dating scene and wonder what it'd be like to be single again. It's a fine class and even as a non-participant, it should be fun to watch it unfold.

Haley has definitely been disappointing thus far. :(

The Chiefs are not married to Haley by any means. I honestly think that if he loses out, hes on extremely thin ice. The team has not improved in any area.

Heres a good read. Haley faces an uphill battle....


http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/1721


Thanks to Jason Lisk for this idea! The premise is that Haley inherited a team that was in the bottom fourth of the league in offense and in the bottom fourth of the league in defense the previous season. Since the magical cut-off point (1970), there have been 13 coaches (excluding partial seasons) who were new hires under these conditions. That’s a pretty select group when you consider all the coaching scenarios in the NFL over the last 40 years.

Obviously, you shouldn’t expect miracles by any of these coaches the following season. Nevertheless, you should expect improvement. I enjoy listening to Jack Harry because he is constantly ragging on one item – which I agree with… that being there is no evidence of improvement in the Chiefs. When you think about it, any new coach should be showing signs of improvement – specifically on a team that was terrible the season before. If not, you have to question whether he is doing a good job.

You really can’t evaluate Haley based on wins and losses. He inherited a dog team and if he gets a couple toothless bites out of them, he’s doing pretty good. But, when comparing him to the other 12 coaches in this group, you can make some assumptions.

What I was interested in was the question of yards gained vs yards allowed. As you know, that’s my bread and butter when evaluating any NFL team or any NFL game. It’s the bottom line. Lots of other things (turnovers, bad calls, penalties, special teams) come and go with the wind, but yardage gained and yardage allowed tells you a lot about a team – especially over the course of a season.

Therefore, when a team is already in the bottom 25% for yards allowed and already in the bottom 25% for yards gained, then they are already at a negative differential. The way to measure the coach is to see whether that negative differential improved the following year or not.

Here are the 13 coaches in chronological order.

Coach Year Team
John North 1973 New Orleans
Walt Michaels 1977 NY Jets
Ray Perkins 1979 NY Giants
Frank Kush 1982 Baltimore
Hugh Campbell 1984 Houston
Dick McPherson 1991 New England
Kevin Gilbride 1997 San Diego
Butch Davis 2001 Cleveland
Steve Mariucci 2003 Detroit
Mike Nolan 2005 San Francisco
Steve Spagnuolo 2009 St. Louis
Eric Mangini 2009 Cleveland
Todd Haley 2009 Kansas City

-

Each of the above coaches inherited a team that was in the bottom 1/4 of the league in both offense and defense. In order to evaluate how they did, I simply took the yardage gained/given up differential from the previous year to their first year. For example…

Kansas City OFF DEF DIFF
2008 308.7 393.2 -84.5
2009 272.4 385.2 -112.8
Total DIFF -28.3

-

The Chiefs, under Haley, are 28.3 yards worse with respect to total yardage offense and defense than they were last season. The question is how does -28.3 rate with respect to the rest of the coaches.

As it turns out, Haley is fourth worst among the 13 coaches on this list. Here they are with the total DIFF listed.

Coach Year Team DIFF
Mike.Nolan 2005 SF -110.0
Ray.Perkins 1979 NYG -63.2
Eric.Mangini 2009 CLE -35.3
Todd.Haley 2009 KC -28.3
Hugh.Campbell 1984 HOU -22.0
John.North 1973 NO -17.9
Kevin.Gilbride 1997 SD +5.6
Steve.Spagnuolo 2009 STL +13.5
Walt.Michaels 1977 NYJ +25.6
Frank.Kush 1982 BAL +27.5
Steve.Mariucci 2003 DET +34.3
Dick.McPherson 1991 NE +36.1
Butch.Davis 2001 CLE +60.5


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The next question I asked myself was what happened to these coaches. How long did they last with the team? Shown are the same coaches in the same order of futility and the number of years they coached that team.

Coach DIFF Years
Mike Nolan -110.0 3.44
Ray Perkins -63.2 4.00
Eric Mangini -35.3 N/A
Todd Haley -28.3 N/A
Hugh Campbell -22.0 1.88
John North -17.9 2.43
Kevin Gilbride +5.6 1.38
Steve Spagnuolo +13.5 N/A
Walt Michaels +25.6 6.00
Frank Kush +27.5 2.56
Steve Mariucci +34.3 2.68
Dick McPherson +36.1 2.00
Butch Davis +60.5 3.63
AVERAGE 3.00

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As you can see, it is hard to make anything out their tenure. Naturally, you would have assumed that Nolan and Perkins would have been gone right away. But, it could be that when your team sucks even worse than the previous year, the GM and/or ownership simply assumes the team was in decline – not the fault of the coach. Thus, they were given more time to correct it.

About all I can draw from this is that under these conditions, the average time a coach survived was 3.00 years.

The other thing that is interesting to me about this is that most of these coaches were just sacrificial lambs. It was the first NFL head coaching job for 11 of the 13 (except for Mariucci and Mangini). Only one of the coaches ever coached another team after this stint (Perkins). Additionally 12 of the 13 ended their careers with a losing record (Mariucci). And, finally 10 of the 13 had only one NFL HC job.

The odds of Haley being “successful” in Kansas City are remote – to say the least. The chances are he will be gone in another year or two; he will leave with a losing record; he will never be an NFL head coach again.

Does that mean he won’t have provided a benefit to the team? Not necessarily. These HCs appear to be transitional coaches. Eventually, a team will turn around, but it will be more because of player moves than due to whoever is leading them.

Finally, here are the same teams and the number of years before they made the playoffs.

Year Team Yrs.
1973 New Orleans 15
1997 San Diego 8
2003 Detroit 7+
1982 Baltimore 6
2005 San Francisco 5+
1977 NY Jets 5
1984 Houston 4
1991 New England 4
1979 NY Giants 3
2001 Cleveland 2
2009 Kansas City N/A
2009 Cleveland N/A
2009 St. Louis N/A
AVG 5.9

-

As you can see, the average length of time before making the playoffs is 5.9 years. That would mean the Chiefs still have 5.1 years of playofflessness left.

It’s worth pointing out the Browns only went two years, but they made the playoffs on a 9-7 record (usually not good enough) and it was another five years before they made it again. Also, the Giants made it on a 9-7 record after three years, but it was another three years before they made it again.

About all we Chiefs fans can hope for is that we fall asleep and wake up in a few years after we’ve had time to rebuild the personnel on the team and after a new coaching staff takes over.

No coach with the lack of talent that this team has is going anywhere in his 1st year. Sorry, but that's the fact.

The problem is going to be assistant coach turnover. The raiding if the big names get jobs could be massive.

Shanahan or Gruden would be okay....

Coward and Holmgren? ROFL OH HELL NO!!!!

But Haley isnt going anywhere, IF a coach like Herm can take a team to depths never experienced in KC and stay 3 years... (shit there are some posters that wanted him to stay).... Then Haley should get at least 3 years...

Never experienced?

Do you really think that this abortion of a football team and coaching staff is better than last year's team and coaching?

Really?

Last year's team would have kicked the living shit out of this year's team.

Hands down.

Hiring a Head Coach was the first real GM decision Pioli had to make...so far not so good.
Welcome to a first time GM learning on the job.

I will not shed a tear if Haley goes for the sole fact that I have yet to see any improvement in this team. That said, Haley needs to really retool his staff this offseason if he wants to survive, and the Chiefs need to be willing to spend big money to bring in good coordinators...

I feel this years team would kick the shit out of last years team...

So lets just leave it at we will agree to disagree on that one...

And the bolded part? How many miles between you and I? That is how much better this year is than last....

:shake:

This boy done lost his damn mind....

Just to be another one to disagree, and to be a pain in the ass...
If the 08 Chiefs played the 09 Chiefs ...it would come down to coaching. As much as this hurts...Herm wins over Todd. Herm had respect of his players...Todd not so much, and one game Herm is the kind of coach that may make that happen. Herm kept his teams close...Todd's team gives up.

Yep.... Sure have....

The offense is 3pts worse a game this year compared to last
The defense is 3pts better a game this year comparted to last

And I think we have already eclipsed last year's number of QB sacks

Special teams has been the biggest improvment. Herm couldn't get a kicker worth a shit in 3 years.

Yet we have seen time and time again where coaching over the last 3 years really hurt time team... Failing with the use of timeouts, poor clock management, wtf play calls, stupid talent evaluation, playing less talented veteran players over younger better players......

Herm had the respect, because he didnt hold anyone accountable. Well expect the place kicker he drafted then cut after the first game...

There are faults on both sides. Herm should of known better, Haley is learning, not sure he is learning from his fails, but he has no where to go but up...

Just my .02$

Todd's team doesn't give up. even when they are getting blown out they still play hard. obviously, when you get blown out and are at the bottom of the league, players heads will hang, which is what we're seeing. But they aren't giving up.

Herm's 08 team couldn't finish they were awful under Herm's direction, and that was WITH TONY G. Chan Gaily saved that team. Why is it that no one can remember what that 08 team looked like before Chan installed his Pistol offense and entertained us for the rest of the season.

If the 09 team played the 08 team, the 09 team would win. The Difference? The ability to rush the passer. Let's not forget that we are on pace to double our sack total from last year. I know that isn't saying much, but it's obvious the pass rush has improved. The O-Line play this year is still better then the O-Line play of last year.

This year's team is better overall than last years. But this year's passing game is much worse. Chalk that up to the loss of TG, merry-go-round at WR, and trying to run a pro style O with a spread style QB.

Very good points....:clap:

Love that signature... I remember when I wrote it...

Haley is better than Herm. He just needs to polish his act and get an OC and a QB coach. Other than that I like his attitude and the way he wants the team to play. And he needs to replace Clancy........REALLY needs to do that.

If the 08 Chiefs played the 09 Chiefs... man that could be a commical classic finish. Pendergast with a lead trying to hold off Herm and his clock management issues or Gun trying to hold off Haley and his clock management issues.

I think the '09 Chiefs would wipe the field with the '08 team. It's easy to get tunnel vision when you're 3 and whatever, but that grass ain't greener people. Not a bit.

Last years team had 10 sacks. Discussion over.

So is the lack of talent the reason he makes really stupid game management decisions all the time?

I agree. Haley is a better coach, and if he had more talented players, he wouldn't be as prone to making these stupid desperation calls that he makes, because he wouldn't need too.

Haley MUST work on his clock management though. That's my biggest disapointment about him. His game/clock managment is awful, but can/will improve with an OC and QB coach. Haley admits when he is wrong, has a passion for the game and wants to win BAD.

Herm was an idiot. Chan saved him from being lynched mid-way through the season. He never admitted when he was wrong and let his players run his team.

Todd is the better coach..he just needs to replace the people he hired and fired. Isn't that part of being the head coach...getting the right people...just more bad decisions by Todd.

Yes, it really is. He has no faith in his team, so he makes stupid calls. Is it wrong for him to know he has no talent on this squad? He feels the same way we, and the rest of the NFL feel about this team: they suck. He is coaching like it's Madden because he feels like his O needs as many chances it can get to succeed.

Once Pioli was hired, there was no way that Shanahan, Cowher, or Holmgren would come here. They would want more control of personnel decisions.

So how much longer are you guys willing to give Haley?


What if next years team starts off 0-4, 0-5 or 0-6??

It would depend on the how of the losses, but I think if the team's not significantly better after year two he should be out.

Who replaces midseason? Clancy? Maurice Carthon?

So only 13 Head coaches have ever inherited teams this bad in the last 40 years. LOL.

What? Pioli came from the land that the coach gets the final decision on personnel decisions. If Scott knew how to be a GM he would let the coach have a lot of input...it's the only way the system works. Yes, some of those guys want complete control, but Holmgren already had his personnel duties stripped away in Seattle...Shanahan has worked well with others (except Al Davis) but that is to his advantage.

If we start off 0-4 or worse, he will really be pressing. I still like Haley, a lot. At some point, once we get the talent I think he will be a very good coach.

But if he starts 0-4 and it continues to get worse, I dont think I would be able to give him anymore time. Unless a dramatic change happened towards the end of the season I would have to be calling for him to be fired. With that said, I could easily see him going off to another team at some point and being successful with the right group of guys.

Haley has upside. Herm did not. That's what keeps me going in a comparison.

I guess that is kind of how I feel about him too. We can't forget, this is Haleys 1st year ever of being a head coach/ qb coach/ offensive coordinator.

I just dont see it guys. I could if the team showed improvement somewhere...anywhere.....

They turned over half the roster and its still crap.

If he doesnt win another game, i think hes toast.

What upside? No track record as a head coach before KC and this year hasn't helped his resume. Herm at least won playoff games as a head coach...only Marty and Hank can make that claim in KC....Marty took a 4 win team to within 1/2 a game of the playoffs his first year...Herm made the the palyoffs in KC his first year. Todd may win 4 games.

The team that Herm took to the playoffs was better/more established than this crew.

They had a RB in his prime, a veteran QB, a Hall of Fame Tight End, a better offensive line, Jared Allen, more experience, etc.

I'm willing to give Haley some time. But if he doesn't finish well, you're going to see a sweep of assistants. You might see that anyways.

Haley isn't Herm. Nothing else matters. Haley could lose the next 30 games in a row, and some would still be saying "Boy that Herm fella, whooo what a joke he was. Glad we don't have to put up with him anymore."

13 Rookie Head Coaches.

Pioli just said on the radio....we are in the top three with dropped passes...along with Detroit and Cleveland. Really the GM is now saying his players and his coaches are on par with Cleveland and Detroit. Go KC!!!!

Pioli just said he will not require Todd to hire an OC next season, but they need to talk about it.

Thanks for the info...what station is he on?

Last years team would have made a prison b!tch out of this years team.

Nothing to worry about with that happening here.

Screw that I'd take Holmgren over any of them, not that any are bad. Holmgren made his QB's and built programs and coaching staffs from the ground up. None of the others did that, he took two teams that were horrible before he arrived, to the Superbowl.

Herm also had respect from other coaches. How much respect did Haley lose/earn from other coaches by cutting Chan right before the season started?

810 WHB... KK has his nose up Scott's ass and is trying his best to get Scott to blame things on Carl. At times this has been funny and you can hear steeping away from questions and not being led on KK.

Damn I really hate Keitzman. Every word out of his mouth makes me want to punch him in the face. He is so pompous. I'm glad he makes himself look like an ass often enough that it balances out the pain of listening to him.

This is a first in CP history... You and I agree on something......


:clap:

Stop taking words out of my mouth! Your exactly right... Nothing else matters...

How could it be bad to be married to Todd Haley? He sucks! In a marriage, that's a good thing...

I know there are a ton of people here who wouldn't want him, but if you think Todd Haley is a better Head Coach than Bill Cowher, you deserve to spend your Christmas dinner eating SPAM with Carl Peterson.

I'd take the 2008 offense over 2009 for sure, but overall the 2008 team was better in a lot of ways. I think you can see some improvement on defense but offense has just been much worse this year than last.

Offense
Thigpen had a slight edge over Cassel in completion % and threw 18 TD's to 12 INT's, finishing the season with a 76.0 QB rating. Cassel has 13 TD's & 13 INT's and a 68.3 QB rating. Cassel has fumbled 8 times, Thigpen & Huard fumbled 5 times combined. Edge right now goes to Thigpen. Not saying he's a better QB, just performed better last year than Cassel has this year. I wish Chan could have coached Cassel this year.
+1 for 2008

Last years passers were sacked 37 times. This year Cassel has been sacked 40 and Croyle 3.
+1 for 2008

We had two 1,000 yard receivers last year and will be lucky to have a 700 yard receiver this year considering Bowe is still leading the team despite missing 4 games and he only has 466.
+1 for 2008

We scored 31 TD's last season on offense, we currently have 19. No way we score 12 TD's on offense in the last 3 games.
+1 for 2008

DefenseYes defensively we only had 10 sacks, this year we have 19.
+1 for 2009

Yes last years defense allowed more points (+1 for 2009) and yards (+1 for 2009).


Last year we had 20 forced fumbles and 13 interceptions for a total of 33 defensive turnovers. This year we have 11 forced fumbles and 9 interceptions for a total of 20 turnovers. Do you really think we'll get 13 more in just 3 games?
+1 for 2008

Tackles for loss last year were 42 (2.62 per game) compared to 27 (2.07 per game) this year.
+1 for 2008

Finally:
Aside from yards and scoring, I think most people would agree, that sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles and "tackles for loss" are what you would generally call the "key plays" of a defense. We've had 85 key plays on defense last year compared to 66 this year. Imagine how bad last years defense could have been if we hadn't had those key plays. This part I think goes back to what Haley says about people knowing their assignment and doing what their supposed to do.

We had more key plays last year but did it come at the cost of giving up even more big plays than we were preventing?

I'm not crazy about those decisions, but if his players execute, they become gutsy calls.

WTF ROR, lets compare apples to oranges and call them bananas okay?


If you want to compare Coward to lets say, hum, maybe Bill Walsh, Chuck Noll, Bill Belicheck, Jimmy Johnson and say he is a great head coach, then you deserve to spend your Christmas dinner with Greg Robinson....

Last year's team could score points.

Last year's team lost 8 games by 7 points or less.

Last year's team featured a competent offense and offensive coordinator.

Last year's team had Tony Gonzalez.

THIS year's team can't hold a team to less than 500 yards of offense and CANNOT score.

You're out of your mind if you think that this year's defense would stop last year's offense.

Not a ****ing chance.

Dane I see what your doing here... And thats great.... But each is to their own opinion...

but I am pushing my chips in on Haley over Herm....

He'd have to be terminated at that point. Also depends on the personnel Pioli was aquiring for him.

I know that your hatred for Herm runs deep but JFC, did Herm EVER do something as stupid as punting from his OWN 20?

Haley gets the Dumbass Coach of the Decade for that shit.

The thread is about Haley and AVAILABLE COACHES you ****ing reerun, NOT BILL ****ING WALSH OR ANY OTHER DEAD ****ING COACH YOU ASSHOLE.

Haley's our man. Patience.

Take strength of schedule into account? I agree, last year's Passing game was much better then this years. But right now with Charles, the run game is better than last years. The Pass rush is better, and the run D for the most part is better. And i still believe the O-Line play is better.

These arguements about last years team being better than this season, or vice versa, is hilarious to me. Suck is suck. How gives a **** who would win?

ROFL

Roger that.....

Coward can go **** himself... I hope to god he never steps foot on the KC sidelines in my lifetime...

The only way i could reason last years team beating this years is Chan Gaily. He made better use of Bowe/Gonzalez. Without Chan, last years team would've been worse then Detroit.

And your new hatred of everything Pioli and Haley does or doesnt do to yours, OTWP and Mecca's liking is quickly catching mine hatred of Herm...

Sounds like we need to have some beers and wings and talk about the good ol days...

Agreed.

I don't "hate" Haley and Pioli.

I just think that this year, they've proven to be highly incompetent. The decision making both on the field and in the front office has been laughable at times.

Dont dispute the facts at all... But nothing worse that was we have dealt with prior....

IMO, this year was a financial wash on the field because of the jack Hunt is spending on improvements...

They werent going to go out and spend a shit ton of jack. Thus look at the product on the field. None of us know for sure, that is just my opinion....

Now if they do this 2 years in a row, then I am going to unleash the phury on them... Herm style....

Not going to spend money?? Didnt they spend a ton on Cassel??

Quit making excuses for these guys. This year has been a complete failure anyway you try and paint it.

Coward?

:shake: You might not like him, but that dude can coach. Period.

Yet, we're giving the benefit of the doubt to 4th and 8 from his own 28?

I've never seen anyone, outside of Madden or Tecmo Bowl, go for it from his own 28.

That REALLY deserved a thread of its own.

Hell, even Frank Gansz wasn't that ****ing stupid.

So answer me this? What guidelines did Hunt give Pioli...

I am not making any excuse here, just wanting the facts before I start throwing stones... Dont want to break my glass....

Can he coach outside of the pittsburg family? Can he coach with total control like he is going to want?

It's the type of decision that makes it justifiable to fire him on the spot.

It's a microcosm that suggests that he's far too stupid to be in a position of consequence.

Yep and if there was blocking, it might of worked... Very stupid call when it fails, gutsy as hell when it works...

Dont forget Herm lost two, yes two timeouts on the same ****ing challenge... The only person in NFL history to do such....

With total control is a great point. It's a recipe for failure for anyone, IMO.

If The Chin would come here and work for Pioli, I'd trade Haley for him in about .000002 seconds, and this organization would instantly be considerably better.

Wait?

I have seen teams to for it at their own 28, but usually its deep in the 4th and its now or never....

So yes it has happened, but not in the 3rd freaking qtr....

It was never gutsy. Even if it works, it's dumb as ****.

I'm sorry, that is not even CLOSE to being as STUPID as a fake punt on your OWN 28!

When it's still a one score game. And it was after this point that the wheel completely fell off the wagon.

It's not a coincidence.

Just my opinion...

I dont think the dude with the beer tray on his face is willing to come in and just coach. Which will cost him dearly. When has it ever worked?

Also he might be better, but is he willing to change to compete with the Colts and Saints type of teams???