Sunday's Chances of Victory
 

Since no one is every 100% sure about the outcome of a game, I thought I'd throw a new twist in on the old "Who's gonna win?" poll. The question is not "Who will win?" but instead "What are the chances of a Chiefs victory over Cleveland?"

Go.

70%

The Chiefs looked better last Monday, but I'm still a bit worried they'll lay an egg here. I expect Cleveland to hang around, but if Kansas City has turned a corner then they should be the ones controlling play for the majority of the game. Ensuring the "career day defense" doesn't return would be a start...

I think the Chiefs will be ready to play despite the short week and being away. The run D looks to be much improved and so is our ST. Those are the primary areas the brownies killed us at. I give the Chiefs 70% chance of "spankin dat azz!"

I picked 80%. Your D looks real, running game is real, ST looks real, coaching looks real. If Cassel doesn't shart in his uni the Chiefs should win handily, but I'm leaving the door open 20% in case he turns out to be the failure most here think.

60%.

I think we are more talented. I also think we have a distinct advantage with coaching, particularly the assistants. As FlaChief pointed out, we've improved in 2 areas we got killed in last year by them.

On the flip side, it's their home opener. We're on a short week. First game away from the high energy of Arrowhead.

I still think our edge overcomes theirs and we win, but it will be relatively close.

Went with 90%. Homerism couldn't quite completely erase 3+ years of let downs.

I know 50/50 is the chickenshit answer, but that's how I feel. I don't think that the Chiefs will have as much special teams success this week. The Browns should gameplan to make Cassel beat them, which he likely can't. But still... its the Browns.

80%. the browns are terrible. They have no talent and are poorly coached. It would be embarrassing to lose to them.

127%

I'd jump it up to about 65%, but agree with the rest.

60%.

This is a tough game to predict because we really don't know what this Chiefs team is all about. Can they sustain long drives? Can the defense shut down the run? Will the special teams continue to dominate? Is Cassel capable of putting up decent numbers in a win (i.e., 250 yards, 2 TD's and an INT)?

I think the Chiefs have a better than 50% chance to win but it's going to take several weeks before we really know how this team will match up from week to week.

Now that's confidence.

50% is a bullshit answer and reply. If it's that close, you should either reply 40% or 60%. Why even bother with answering 50%? Pussy.
:evil:

70% if Delhomme plays.

60% if Wallace plays.

Coin flip.

I think it's about 80% likely that the QB won't be forced to play a major role in this game, in which case, we should win.

I think it's about 10% likely that Cassel is still bad enough to lose the game for us.

As such, I end up with 70% likely that we win.

The stench of homer is strong in this thread.

You guys do realize that Vegas has Cleveland favored, right?

I already called myself chickenshit. Your post is redundant.

10 of 22 for under 70 yards has me thinking 50/50 might be as good as it gets.......

Ok, ass. 49%, with the Brownies getting a 2% swing for home field. :)

If Mark Castle goes 10 for 22 with under 70 yards again......I hope his ass gets ****ing yanked.

I hope his head gets yanked from his body if it happens again.......

60% They don't want to go back to losing.

Not me.

I don't really care to see his ass.

Right now, it's anywhere between 1.5 and 2.5 points.

It'll probably tighten up further closer to kickoff. That basically means that Vegas thinks that either team can win.

And it's not homeristic to believe that this Chiefs team is better than a really sorry Browns team.

It's one of the games I had pegged as a win in my 5 win prediction.

60% of the time, everytime.

I was downgrading you from Chickenshit to Pussy.

No, 1.5 to 2.5 points does not "basically mean anyone can win". It means one team is favored to win by 1.5 to 2.5 points.

Granted that is a very small spread, but it is strange that only 1 person (knowmo doesn't count) has voted for less than 50% odds of winning when Vegas is currently giving us less than 50% odds of winning.

I went with 70% because I just think we should win this game.Nothing is for sure though,hell,you never know which team is gonna show up at kick off.

70%

I think were a more talented (speed wise) and better coached team than last year...

I was wrong about the KC 27 SD 17 last week, So I am going KC 24 Browns 16 this week.

Given the standard 3 points for HFA and Vegas believes KC to be a slightly better team.

That said, if the Chiefs can't win this one, you have to wonder if they'll be able to a road game at all this season.

This is a game KC needs to win.

This is spot on.

Why we could win: Better coaching, better defense, better special teams, film from last year, Charles and Jones. Cleveland playing 2nd string QB, they usually lose their home opener.

Why we could lose: We're on the road, Chiefs not a good road team. Nobody on Cleveland will rip their helmet off in the middle of a game changing play. They ran the ball up our ass at Arrowhead last year. Cribbs returned the ball up our ass on kicks last year. Two KC Defensive Ends questionable, Matt Cassel is our QB. It might rain, which always helps the home team.

Who the **** says that we have to go off of what Vegas is saying? That's not the point of this thread.

I'm no gambler, but what it does mean is that Vegas believes that the teams are evenly matched, but are favoring the Browns due to homefield.

A Browns team that has only 1 of their last 10 home openers.

I've pegged it as a win too, and no, it's not "homeristic" for a person to believe our chances of victory over Cleveland is over 50%.

But as a whole, the vote has quickly turned into a homer-fest as 20+ people give us 50% or higher odds of winning versus 1 person voting we have less than 50% odds of winning.

Watch us lose to Cleveland in a close game and everyone jumps back off the bandwagon.

EDIT: 43 people now...LOL

Yea by 2 wich is a push. The talking heads have no respect for our Chiefs (and rightly so)considdering the past few years and they love the Mangina for whatever reason. Most are calling our win a fluke, so vegas picking the marshmellow brownies is not surprising to me because it's so early in the season and hard to jugde how good or bad teams really are.

Well, hell. I might as well close the thread. Vegas is always right, so there's no point in discussing it now is there. :p

In all fairness. We dont know enough about this team to know...

Its not like last year, where we had our fingers on the pulse...

This team is 180 degrees different.. Will be interesting to see... What are we going to expect from our offense? Defense, ST?

I think in 4 weeks we will know, but right now? Its a crap shoot.

Who the **** said anyone has to do what Vegas is saying? No one said that.

If you paid attention, my point is that overall the voters in this poll are being homers. Right now it's 43 votes at 50% or higher to win, 1 vote at less than 50% to win.

We're not playing Park Hill high school, we're playing a road NFL game.

Since Romeo used to be the Browns Head Coach, you know he'd like to stick it to em. Extra "brownie" point for the Chiefs chances.

Hey now, Park Hill can be a tough road game!

Yeah no doubt.

I'd say about 60%

That's an upgrade. I mean, which would you rather eat?

Too many "experts" saying we'll win. That bothers me.

Homer.

I'm not going to get into this with you but I will say this: If teams are evenly matched, the odds are usually -3 in favor of the home team.

In a case like this, where the better team hasn't been proven, Vegas odds can't even favor Cleveland.

It's anyone's game, hence -1.5. It'll get closer by Sunday, meaning Vegas most likely will not earn any money from this game.

Oh yeah, Vegas? We've got something up our collective sleeves that you haven't figured in yet:

That's right....
Thread mojo
Don't screw with nut's official game threads.

80%

We were supposed to lose Monday night also but the Chiefs are tired of losing.

Dane, I have been reading your posts for quite some time without ever responding. I have to say..... you are hilarious. I don't always agree with you and sometimes you are way over the top. But you never fail to be entertaining. Keep it up brother, and never back down. Back to lurking I go.

0% (Last week was a complete fluke. We suck.) 1 1.14%
KnowMo2724

True fan.

I think the Chiefs will win outright..so...

How about the over/under @ 39?

I am taking the Chiefs to win outright (giving the points) parlayed with the over (every $40 wins ~$125 plus the 40 back....$100 would win ~$300 plus your hundo back).

I am going with my gut that says the over hits......Anyone have any thoughts on the over/under?

I dunno there seems to be plenty of experts saying we will crash back down to reality too. Hopefully they have headlines of last season's game from every Cleveland newspaper plastered all over the place.

Math is for pussies...

I'm really surprised at the optimism here. I like it, but can't say I agree.
Posted via Mobile Device

Agree with about 60%. Just a few too many questions for me right now to go higher, but at the same time I can totally see a win.

Like respect, confidence grows with every win/good performance. For example, stuff the Browns' run game and I'll be more confident about stopping Gore in W3 than I am right now.

Get to 3-0, simply compete with Indy/Houston (i.e. don't lose 35-7), and I'll be at 85-95% when it comes to Buffalo and Jacksonville at Arrowhead.

Funny thing is I think some people are pessimistic because we won week 1 and just can't see us going 2-0.

LMAO I am one of them even though I voted 70%.

54% Chiefs

I'll stick you and watch you bleed.


Or wack you with my slide rule.

Yeah I have to go with 50%. I toyed with the idea of 60%, but I think that extra 10% would just be homerism on my part.

The Browns aren't very good and if the 49ers suck this year, we can easily start 3-0. All that is going to do is give us false hope, then this board will be set on fire.

(1)Steelers - HOme
(3)Skins-Raiders-Broncos -Away

40%.

Short week, road game, relatively equal opponent. I don't think that shouts "win" in any way.

The Browns are in many ways a mirror of KC. Quarterback problems, able to run the ball, score on special teams, and play some defense. All else being equal, have to give the home team the advantage.

Watch out for his protractor.

Here you go bud. Get to munching.

http://365observations.com/wp-conten...girl-shaun.jpg

70% We need more first downs to do it however.

Folks, you can only find this type of expert analysis on Chiefsplanet!

Indeed

cassellowball'as performance against sd was a fluke...

he'll play much worse this week...