How The Chiefs Can Beat The Colts
 

How The Chiefs Can Beat The Colts
by Patrick Allen
Sep 30th


The Kansas City Chiefs won’t take on the Indianapolis Colts until October 10th but you can bet Todd Haley and his coaching staff are using their “week off” to work.

Here at Arrowhead Addict, we’re doing the same.

The Chiefs are still not getting respect from the national media. Don’t confuse KC’s recent mentions in the national press as respect. They are just mentions. The “experts” have to mention that the Chiefs are 3-0 and they have to mention that it is remarkable but that doesn’t mean they respect them and it certainly doesn’t mean they think the Chiefs stand a snowballs chance in hell of knocking off the Colts on the road.

They might be right. Peyton Manning is one of the best QB’s ever and as some of our astute readers pointed out earlier today, the Colts are nearly unbeatable at home. Since 2005 the Colts are 35 and 6 at home.

Despite their record the Chiefs are still developing. They have a very, very young secondary. The type of secondary Peyton Manning puts in an omelet and eats for breakfast.

Yet given all that, I think the Chiefs are perfectly constructed to beat the Indianapolis Colts.

Ok, maybe not perfectly constructed. It would help if the Chiefs had Joe Montana at QB instead of Matt Cassel but you have to play with the guys you’ve got.

While game planning for the Colts, the Chiefs need to look no farther than the Houston Texans.

Houston is the only team to beat the Colts this year and they exposed in the first game weaknesses that Indi’s last two opponents have failed to take advantage of. Whether the Texans stumbled upon their victory by planning or luck, it worked and the Chiefs would be fools not to look pretty hard at the Texans Week 1 box score.

I’m no fool so I’ve done just that. The way the Texans beat the Colts was very simple.

They ran it down their freaking throats.

For years the Texans have been getting into shootouts with Peyton Manning and for years Manning has beat them. Not this year.

The Texans beat the mighty Indianapolis Colts with a measly 98 yards passing.

Matt Shaub, normally a very good QB capable of putting up huge numbers, attempted only 17 passes to Manning’s 57.

No the Texans ran on the Colts. The pounded the ball with Arian Foster, who racked up 231 yards. In the end the Texans gashed Indi’s pitiful run defense for 257 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Texans weren’t delusional enough to believe they could shut down Manning. Nobody can shut down Manning.

Peyton completed a ridiculous 40 of 57 passes for 433 yards and 3 touchdowns.

More than a few times the Texans let Manning march down into their territory before tightening up their D. They avoided letting Manning get the big play, giving him the underneath stuff. They let him get his numbers.

They got the victory.

The Chiefs have a team constructed to implement a similar game plan. They have a quick and athletic secondary that knows how to tackle. They should be able to keep the Colts receivers in front of them. When the Colts get into Chiefs territory, Flowers, Carr, Berry and Lewis should be able to tighten up enough to hold the Colts to some FG’s.

When the Chiefs have the ball they have to take advantage of Indi’s 29th ranked run defense. The Colts are giving up an average of 141.3 yards per game while the Chiefs are averaging 160.7 yards rushing. This won’t be a repeat of the 2007 Wild Card Playoffs. Bob Sanders isn’t coming back. The Colts aren’t going to suddenly learn how to stop the run. If the Chiefs can gash the Colts on the ground they should be able to score without Matt Cassel needing to throw for 400 yards.

The Chiefs will have to be opportunistic. They won’t be able to turn the ball over and they had better continue to avoid penalties.

If they can do these things I think the Chiefs have a legitimate shot at shocking the world.

A couple of special teams touchdowns wouldn’t hurt either.

http://arrowheadaddict.com/2010/09/3...eat-the-colts/


It'd be a lot easier if we could have Bernie "Flashdance" Pollard for just one play. [Which would make Curtis Painter our starting QB next year. ;) ]
http://www.boston.com/sports/footbal...rd%20brady.jpg

The only way the Chiefs will beat the Colts is if a tornado tears off the roof of the RCA Dome forcing Peyton Manning to play **gasp** in the OUTDOORS.

I'd say we've got about a 12% chance of victory

Dorsey will be the key to winning the game. Period.

It could happen...

http://aonghascrowe.files.wordpress....z_tornado1.jpg

Jason Belzer rips off farts of elderberry in Arrowhead Addict's general direction

They should give Lilja the mic to the defensive captain's helmet.

I've been here 7 years longer, yet you have more posts? Elderberries indeed! :)

We don't need a full article for this.

Pass rush on the Colts bad OL.. and Run run run with JC and TJ.

Considering Arian Foster (who?) rushed for more than 200 yards against the Colts in a Texans win, the Chiefs have better than a 60% chance to win.

Especially considering they have two weeks to prepare.

Arian Foster has shown himself to be pretty good thus far.. but you're right. I don't think he's as good as the JC/TJ combo. If we can control the game to start, we got a good shot.

We can't afford to fall behind though.. at all.

If Dane is enthusiastic about it, you know we have a damn good chance of winning. :D

I wonder if the Chiefs will want to unleash Charles in this game, give him about 25 touches. They'll need his big plays.

Foster has about 400 yards in three games. Not amazing, not awful. He's been fairly contained the past two weeks and I've seen no reason to suggest the Chiefs can't do the same.

Oh, I can see the Chiefs falling behind by 10 or less and still winning but any more than that may be difficult due to Cassel's limited ability.

Flowers on Wayne, Carr on Collie, Arenas on Garcon and DJ on Clark.

Clark is my biggest fear due to Berry's inexperience at this level but I think he makes a leap during the Bye Week.

Garcon is playing? He's been hurt.

Yardage doesn't work too much though since HOU is so stacked on O. Schaub's 497 yds against the Redskins made his yardage less; he wasn't contained.

And yeah, I could see 10 maybe if it's earlyish. INDY has threats outside though as well, Clark won't be as much of a problem if we can apply constant pressure to Peyton.

This smacks of AT. A master of the obvious article. I'm fairly confident the Chiefs will take a peek at what the only team to beat the Colts this year did to beat them. Just a guess, but I'm glad this guy pointed it out. Somebody forward this to Haley ASAP!!

Lilja should be a good resource for Romeo and the defense.

Foster was contained by two 3-4 defenses in Washington and Dallas. Dallas has a better secondary and was able to contain Schaub and the receivers.

I'm not stating that will be the case when the Chiefs visit the Texans but I do think there's a much better chance of a win than most people expect. The matchups, outside of the tight end (again) are fairly favorable on defense for the Chiefs.

It's Lucas Oil Stadium now. Truly a unique stadium actually.

Going by memory here.. 17-106 isn't a ton for contained.

He was something like 16-70 against the Redskins, but I still think that's skewed with Schaub throwing for 497.

Owen Daniels has been hurt and recovering this season. He's played some but to me hasn't looked like himself yet. Even if he's fully healthy, he's not the threat DClark is. By then, and after dealing with Clark.. I'd hope we have a good idea on how to contain him.

1) do to Dallas Clark what we did to Vernon Davis...practiciong against Tony 2 surely is helping in this area.
2) Run the ball consistently throughout the game and give Charles the start and the better part of a 65/35 split of the carries
3) Get to PM consistently and hit him when we get there, we cant let him get comfortable. We cant blitz much to do this, we have to do it with a 4 man rush most of the time.
4) Preparation is KEY, Romeo should get these guys ready to take away the things Peyton like to do the most and force him to do things he doesnt do every game. If he tries to replicate recent history, Flowers, Berry, Carr and the rest of the secondary need to play opportunistic football and DONT DROP PICKS.
5) Keep them to field goals and not touchdowns. If we can do this, we can win.
6) Dont let PM get on fire late in the game.

I think that Romeo will be a good resource for Romeo and the defense

Oh that's right, Lilja won't be able to provide any insight into Manning or the Colts' offense because his memory is totally shot. Just like his knees.

Arian Foster is an exemplary member of the first place St. Cloud Boating fantasy football team.

You will speak ill of him no longer.

Yep, this doesn't work...

...but, hopefully the bye can make a difference. Having a few big play guys helps in case they do get down early, and there was just enough pressure up the middle last week to get my hopes up on rattling Manning a little. I'm really interested to see the defensive plan, as well as offense, especially after seeing Herm shit his pants against the Colts twice in recent years.

It all depends on DJ and Berry's continued improvement.

DJ hasn't shown that he can cover a TE consistently over the years and Berry is a very young guy just learning about the NFL. If both can make a leap during the next two weeks of preparation, it may affect Clark's ability to get open and score at will.

I'm not suggesting he won't score (he tore up the Giants because of their safety issues) but hopefully, things will become clearer for Berry over the course of the bye so that it doesn't happen repeatedly.

Just to be clear, I'm in no way, shape or form down on Berry, but he's essentially a college senior playing in the NFL. It's going to take at least 10 games or more for everything to click and most likely, his entire rookie campaign.

The bad thing about our good running game is the Colts KNOW we have a good running game and shitty pass game. It doesn't take someone from NASA to figure out what we're gonna try and do. They're going to put 8 in the box and make Cassel beat us w/ his arm while Mathis and Freeney are breathing down his neck. I just hope Albert and BRich are up for that challenge, those 2 DE's are VERY fast off the line, on that field turf.

Nor his Teddy Ruxpin.

Protection wise, he should be a helluva advantage for the defensive line. If I was Todd, I would stick Lilja in the film room with the front seven and let him coach them up for an hour or two.

I heard a rumor that Charlie Weiss' former gallbladder is going to suit up and play right tackle. That should eliminate the pass rush from one side of the d-line.

Ryan Matthews 1 fumble 1 injury..basically nothing
James Harrison nothing
Frank Gore not much more than nothing

Im not very scared of Arian Foster...

No shit what's unique about it is they sell seats that sit directly behind support beams/blind spots.

http://cmsimg.indystar.com/apps/pbcs...ef=AR&MaxW=320

yeppers.

I expect a lot of 3-wide formations with Dexter like we had last week against SF, and I also expect some Single Wing as well with DMC/Charles/Jones so we can add an extra blocker to the mix and take Cassel out wide like we did last week. Honestly Jones/Charles is better under center than Cassel :p

Ha. I wonder if those seats are the freebees if you come in after halftime.

If James Harrison was a runningback he would be freaking unstoppable.

Man I wish we still had Jordan Black. He loved playing against Freeney.

ROFL

Conversely, the Colts beat the Chiefs by stopping the run.

8 in the box, make Cassel (yuck) Bowe (drop) and Chambers (who?) beat you.

In order to be in this game, Cassel will need to hit on 90% or better on our screen passes, flat passes, and tight end routes.

We live and die on third down in this game. And its up to Cassel.

I-65 was such a monster.

The Colts run defense blows. Their secondary isn't much better.

I'm not saying the Chiefs will unequivocally win, but the Colts certainly have weaknesses.

Hillis is a better runner than JH I think anyways.

And Frank Gore not much? The guy has been consistently one of the top 10 runners in in the league for the past few years.

Foster has ran very well. Torched Indy, ran pretty solid against the Redskins, and also good against the Boys. The passing offense really helps open it up for him though.

...and our strengths just happen to match up to those weakness' pretty damn well.

IMO, anyway.

Pioli would do well to go out and scrounge up a wide receiver that knows how to get separation. Chambers just can't seem to do it anymore. It may be too late for the Colts game, but it'd certainly shore up our playoff hopes.

For the record here peeps, Arian Foster's totals are as follow:

---------------------
Week 1 against the Colts: 33 carries, 231 yards

Week 2 against the Skins: 19 carries, 69 yards

Week 3 against the Girls: 17 carries, 106 yards

---------------------

Let's see what he does in the meantime but if you throw out the Colts game, his numbers are pedestrian at best.

My point is that I think that Gore, Matthews and Harrison/Hillis were better tests for our run defense (that we passed) than Foster, Addai and Don Brown will be. What those guys did against other defenses just further shows the leaps and bounds ourr rush defense has gone through to be a damn good unit. I am anxious to see where our secondary is at right now against those passing games though...should be as good of tests to the pass defense as those guys were to our run defense.

I am not super familiar with Foster's running style. Is he more like Jones, or Charles?

Foster is on the Texans...


edit: unless you are looking to week 6!

Oh okay I misread your last post.

Foster is a good runner, and I don't know how much we can compare him to the last 3 weeks because it's a much more loaded offense, and it won't be raining.

That said, our rush D has looked good so far, and I'm interested to see how we'll do against these passing games as well.

yeah, I am talking about the tests we face in the run defense in coming weeks versus what we have already faced and am saying Im not scared one bit of the upcoming tests.

I hope we can do so with our pass defense in a few weeks, is my ultimate point I am trying to build towards.

Time will tell, as always.

If Flowers is the guy I think he is...he will severely limit the effectiveness of BOTH Wayne and AJ in coming weeks...allowing Berry to help out the rest of the secondary to be opportunistic.

Hopefully we can get to the quarterback without blitzing very much, so these guys have a chance to compete on an equal playing field with two of the best passing games in the whole league.

You know...Flowers is a beast and all...but AJ is just on another ****ing level. If he is close to or at 100% by week 6, then...I don't know, but I don't know if Flowers can really "limit" him.

But I do think Flowers can handle Wayne.

Well Flowers is no Revis. Just tell Brandon to check his text messages for confirmation. Time for a break, everyone s-t-r-e-t-c-h....

http://static.nfl.com/static/content...allery_600.jpg

If Flowers isn't on the level of Revis, then show me a game or two that ANYONE got the better of him...

Ill be waiting.

I think Flowers on Andre will be a damn good test on how good the kid really is, I think he is a top 3 quality corner in the NFL...and I think that Flowers will jump at least one route in the Indy game when PM tries to force the ball to Wayne and just might take the ball to the house depending on where the pick takes place. He will surely be waiting on a few routes to materialize and will bait PM into a pick or two the way Ty Law used to.

you keep saying some DUMB ****ING SHIT Dane ROFLROFLROFL

Holy hell my man.

Holy hell.

The Colts lost 1 game at home last year (the game they let the Jets win with the Curtis Painter debacle)...

The Colts are the creme de la creme of the NFL...

and you're giving our Chiefs a 60% chance to beat them on the road?

REALLY?

REALLY?

And this is one of our board "geniouses"...

the same guy that said we'd lose by 20+ to San Diego...

so thanks for the kiss of death asshole

There's been a few improvements since last season and this season, no? So, my assessment of the San Diego game was off, but that was based on 2009 and the preseaon ONLY.

I've picked the Chiefs to win the past two weeks.

And 60% isn't 100%, is it?

Like I care.

I'm an "asshole" whether I pick the Chiefs or not, right?

60% is a ridiculous prediction....

how in GOD'S name are you giving the Chiefs 60% to beat a team that has won 12+ games like I don't know, 8 years in a row...

That's just...stupid. That's a stupid, stupid, stupid prediction. Just like your Chargers prediction week 1.

Maybe I'm a pessimist when it comes to teams playing the Colts...but I give us a 10% chance, tops...I give us a 0.5% chance of gaining 200 yards on the ground...

and the only chance of us winning is if we convert our 3rd downs at a higher rate than the Colts (unlikely) and force at least 2 turnovers.

I love Flowers and was just cracking on what Haley said about giving Flowers a hard time. That said, ANYONE looks better vs. A.S. as opposed to P.M. Should be a great game if everyone plays to their potential.

I've been a Chiefs optimist my whole life.

I love the fact we're 3-0 this year...

I love our talent...I love our playmakers...and I love the identity/discipline our team has...

but to think we're going to go into Indianapolis and beat the Colts...that's just pure homerism...and it will take a miracle to happen.

and for the record...

I think we're going to win the AFC West with a record of, at the very least, 10-6.

I really don't care what you think and never have

well sooner or later you're going to have to start telling me how much I don't know...at least that's the way it's starting to look with your "predictions" this year...

I agree with all of this.

I'm 2-1 on the year. Considering I accurately predicted the Chiefs record the past three years, I think I'm doing just fine without your input.

well dude...

you gave us a 60% chance...so you can't be wrong

I can do that shit too...

I give us a 50% chance of going 16-0 this year...or 15-1...or 14-2...or 13-3...etc.

I'm thinking we have a 67% chance of winning.

Romeo Crennel is 7-0 vs Peyton.

2 weeks to prepare.

Colts have 29th ranked rushing defense.

This could be a blowout in the Chiefs favor... hypothetically speaking, of course.

If feels weird going into a game thinking that we will win.

It'll be a good game.

Seriously?

I knew the stat was in Romeo's favor, but I hadn't actually researched to find out yet.

Silly

holy shit!

I don't know what's wrong with this board...

maybe it's the hate for Peyton Manning?? But I don't know...

How about this...I won't bet on the Colts to win with any of you...or the Chiefs...

I'll make one very simple bet...

The Chiefs won't rush for more than 140 yards against the Colts...

It seems like everyone thinks we have a chance because of our running game...even though, despite being the #1 overall running team in the NFL (this is why stats crack me up)...our running game hasn't really been ALL THAT impressive outside of the 4th quarter of the 49ers game and 1 long Jamaal Charles run...

So...when the Colts get up 10-0...or 17-3...or 20-6...or 27-13...I have a feeling we won't even have a chance to establish a running game...

and 140 is just me being smart...

but if I had to guess...

I'd say 110.

and we're going to lose like 28-13...

and that doesn't mean I don't like the Chiefs this season...it means we're going to Indianapolis and playing the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS...

TMD, interested in a sig or avatar bet on the game?

I am.

if we played the Colts 10 times in Indy...we'd win 1 time, tops.

if we played the Colts 10 times at Arrowhead...we'd win 2 times, tops.

Nevermind, just read that you aren't interested. (our posts posted at the same time)

I was hoping on seeing if you would actually put something behind your claims for once, on here.

I'm picking the Chiefs to lose also. I'm 3-0 on the year with my predictions, and I hope to god I go 3-1. But you must take into account that you're a huuuge Peyton Manning homer, and the Colts are one of the teams that you seem to be enamored with.

Absolutely. I'm interested in any bet regarding this game.

I read a keys to the game article...

Here are the keys to a Chiefs win:

50% 3rd down conversions...

Win the turnover battle.

Win the T.O.P.

Matt Cassel has to have TWO touchdown passes...and complete 65% of his passes.

If we win, it will be behind the passing game...because the Colts are smart enough to not let us run on them.

Guys...

You keep saying..."Arian" who?!? WELL NO SHIT!

The Colts were prepped to stop MATT SCHAUB AND ANDRE JOHNSON...and as referenced now several times...they have played well against the run the last two weeks now...

To think we're just going to run all over them because we have the #1 rushing offense in the NFL is ludicrous...

We've all watched the games...what has been so impressive about the Chiefs ground game? TJ gets us consistent positive yards and puts us in 3rd and manageable every time...well we never manage to pick it up!

Jamaal has had one long ass TD run, one great 3rd down run, and then a bunch of garbage yards right before halftime in a few games...

and then we had the 4th quarter against a dejected 49ers team that we whooped up on!

I love our ground attack...but it isn't going to win us games this year by itself...no way, no how...Matt Cassel and Charlie Weis are going to have to win us games with creative playcalls like we did against San Fran...

If we can do that a few times against Indy, convert our 3rd downs, and get TWO lucky bounces...we might pull off a miracle.

yes...

A MIRACLE

I hate betting against the Chiefs because I know like hell I'll be rooting for them 100%...

I hope they do win. I would lose all of my fantasy games and get punched in the face in exchange for a Chiefs win @ Indy...

That would be the happiest moment of the freaking year for me...easily.

I will eat an AIDS infested crow if it were to happen.

But it won't.

We aren't good enough to beat those guys on their turf yet...

I am a huge Peyton Manning fan.

He's the closest thing to Michael Jordan I've ever seen.

He's the best football player I've ever watched.

He's absolutely amazing and the things he does are unbelievable...

And this is a QB driven league...and other than that rough stretch they had (before rattling off like 9 straight) in 2008 (when Lucas Field opened up)...they don't lose at home.

and yet suddenly people are giving us a 60% shot of victory?!

What?

WHAT?

Yeah, thats kinda my thoughts. If we can get pressure on Manning, preferably without having to use alot of blitzes, this will help. And run the ball down their throats to eat up as much clock as possible and keep Peyton off of the field as much as possible.

OK then.

We win, I own your avatar or sig rights for a month...whichever you choose.

We lose and you own my sig or avatar for two weeks (given the perceived difference in the teams and how Indy is an overwhelming favorite in the game)

If we go over 140 yards, you cant talk about Peyton Manning till January

If we dont, I cant talk about Moeaki till January.

That sound fair?

I think we need to start using more 4 receiver sets with Charles and McCluster both in the game...pick your poison with those two and try to get one open in space.

Seriously...I wouldn't be opposed one bit to the Chiefs using Charles more like the Saints use Bush...except with more carries of course...but shit...no reason why TJ and JC can't be in the game at the same time...even McCluster, too.

So many options with these dynamic playmakers...