Wondering the Playoff inclusion rate of the NFL's final unbeaten team
 

I realize generally it takes more than week 4 to determine the final unbeaten in the NFL. But sitting at work and wondering who the last NFL team that was the final unbeaten failed to make the playoffs was and when. Can't look it up myself as the IS department here are supreme bandwidth Nazi's. But if anyone has time, and wouldn't mind checking, rep to you when I get home.

tk13 was kind enough to post this in the 'We're #1' thread:

Posted via Mobile Device

Problem is this year we are the only unbeaten and only have 3 wins, all the other teams had at least 4 and that only happened once. The rest were all 6-0 or better.

Awesome. Thanks for reposting that for me. Rep for both of you coming. Should have known the info was somewhere on the planet already. Thanks again.

We haven't won anything yet, so shut the **** up already!/Haley

All of those teams made the playoffs so it really does not address the question in the OP.

got to figure the percentage increases exponentially as the number of wins increases.....unfortunately, having said that, this suggests that the chiefs have a few more wins to achieve before they can begin thinking playoffs

Johnny

Agreed, and while 3-0 is better than the 2-1 I hoped we'd be at this point, I just was thinking that the final unbeaten usually goes deeper in the season than we will likely go before our first loss. While I have the playoff kool-aid mixed and in a glass, I haven't started drinking it quite yet... I'm more interested if we'll be the first team in XX years to be the final unbeaten and not make the tournament...

5 and 0 is going to be really amazing. That's when we can start talking playoffs.

FAX

IMO they shouldn't speak of the playoffs till....Well the playoffs.

The next two weeks are going to tell us a lot about where this team is. IF we win 1 of 2, I think it shows that we are a much better team ( how much better, noone knows). With a 4-1, record combined with the rest of the schedual, the Chiefs have a real shot at making the playoffs, which is way better than most of us expected. Of course they could win the next 2 then rattle off 7 straight losses, in wich case, forget everything I just said.

I more interesting question, for me, is; does anyone see anything in the defense that is ripe for gameplanning? ie, we know there's a bit of a tightrope going on with masking Cassel's drawbacks, and we can be fairly sure that Jamaal and Tommy aren't going to fall off a cliff [though 8itB is a worry, what with the first point], but has anyone seen something from a technical standpoint that worries them that people are going to figure out the D? Sure the young 2ndary are going to take their share of licks, sure DJ is playing with his hair on fire, but I haven't seen anything that screams 'if a OC sees what I'm seeing, game over man.'

If I'm OC for the Mannings, I see rookie safeties in my sleep, Mr. Baby Lee. I'm pretty sure that they will convince themselves that they can pick apart our DBs with Manning's super human ability to fling a ball.

And, of course, that will be their downfall.

FAX

Deep left (or right on the D side). Reggie Wayne is going to tax Carr and Lewis for every mistake.

The question got me to wondering what about those teams that were undefeated going into the bye week and then what?

Let's don't pull a Broncos..........just sayin

Intermediate passing routes in the middle of the field. Rivers carved us up in that area. Manning is gonna have a field day 10 yards deep in the middle of the field.

And Eric Berry is going to decapitate Dallas Clark.

'Goin' through the "Big D" and do mean Dallas' /berry

If I were planning against the Chiefs D, I'd run lots of heavy sets and stretch the offensive line out a little. The Chiefs don't push up the middle nearly as well as they come from on the outsides. Use a slightly wider offensive line, and make the ends travel farther and force them to bring pressure up the middle. Especially considering Manning's pocket abilities. I'd try and create favorable matchups with Carr on the outside away from safety help. And I'd run a few times right at Berry, and then try and hit some shallow crossing patterns after a good run fake. The Chiefs crash the line pretty hard on runs, and have been beaten for TDs when teams have faked well and taken advantage of that.

this thread needs more jim mora

This.....

If they turned out 5-0, people would start going bat shit, bananas, crazy. What I really want to see though, is how they respond to a loss. Or, maybe 2 with these next two games on the road.

If they can battle that adversity, and not stick their heads up their asses, the sky is the limit. We have SUCH a favorable schedule this year.

going back further, it looks like the answer is 17 years ago:

1999 - Rams 6-0 - NFC West Champ and #1 seed, won Super Bowl XXXIV
1998 - Vikings 8-0 - NFC Central Champ and #1 seed, lost NFC championship
1997 - Broncos 6-0 - AFC Wild Card and #4 seed, won Super Bowl XXXII
1996 - Colts 4-0 - AFC Wild Card and #6 seed, lost in Wild Card round *
1995 - Dolphins 4-0 - AFC Wild Card and #6 seed, lost in Wild Card round
1994 - Chargers 6-0 - AFC West Champ and #2 seed, lost Super Bowl XXIX
1993 - Saints 5-0 - Missed Playoffs

The 1993 New Orleans Saints began the year 5-0 and probably entered their week 6 bye feeling good about themselves. They fell apart beginning week 7, going 3-8 to end the season with an 8-8 record.

* The 1996 Colts and Chiefs lost the tiebreaker for the #5 seed to the Jaguars (conference record), but the Colts won the tiebreaker over the Chiefs (head to head) to barely make the playoffs as the #6 seed.

Im tired of all the brainwashed judusses of the Chiefs camp.Stop living in the past!
You are just like the naysayers of the status quo that think things will always be as they were. WRONG! Don't give any team a free pass or discount them so hastily.
There are a number of talented new faces on the Chiefs that have yet to play against
Payton Manning ever. Somebody may have his number.He is not invincible and someone
could take him out of his passing game.Even if they didn't they would have to score a ton to offset the Chiefs running , receiving and special teams etc.. It will be difficult for
the 1 hit wonder Peyton Manning to contend with.

Ohh dear Lord...

Welcome.......

<object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/p3-eavMSBnk?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/p3-eavMSBnk?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>

This was what I was looking for. Not a premature playoffjaculation... Thanks alnorth!

Yer the reason I get n00b punished by Mr. Bosschief... Thanks...

Did everyone forget last years Broncos or something?

That was actually what originally put my brain on this topic... Listening to co-workers talking as if they already put their deposits down on the home playoff game... Then was wondering the last lone unbeaten to miss the playoffs... Didn't really come across that way in the OP...

I was curious whether this happened more than once, so I went back all the way to the NFL-AFL merger in 1970.

1992 - Dolphins 6-0 - AFC East Champs and #2 seed, lost AFC championship
1991 - Redskins 11-0 - NFC East Champs and #1 seed, won Super Bowl XXVI
(tie in 1990, two teams made it to week 12 and lost the early sunday game, I didn't bother to try to figure out how long each game lasted to break the tie)
1990 #1 - 49'ers 10-0 - NFC West Champs and #1 seed, lost NFC championship
1990 #2 - Giants 10-0 - NFC East Champs and #2 seed, won Super Bowl XXV
1989 - Rams 5-0 - NFC Wild Card and #5 seed, lost NFC championship
1988 - Bengals 6-0 - AFC Central Champs and #1 seed, lost Super Bowl XXIII
1987 - Bears 4-0 - NFC Central Champs and #2 seed, lost in Divisional round
1986 - Broncos 6-0 - AFC West Champs and #2 seed, lost Super Bowl XXI
1985 - Bears 12-0 - NFC Central Champs and #1 seed, won Super Bowl XX
1984 - Dolphins 11-0 - AFC East Champs and #1 seed, lost Super Bowl XIX
1983 - Cowboys 7-0 - NFC Wild Card and #4 seed, lost in Wild Card round
1982 throwing this year out because of the craziness of no divisions and 8 seed format. Redskins were last undefeated at 4-0
1981 - Eagles 6-0 - NFC Wild Card and #4 seed, lost in Wild Card round
1980 - Bills 5-0 - AFC East Champs and #3 seed, lost in Divisional round
1979 - Buccaneers 5-0 - NFC Central Champs and #2 seed, lost NFC championship
1978 - Steelers 7-0 - AFC Central Champs and #1 seed, won Super Bowl XIII
1977 - Cowboys 9-0 - NFC East Champs and #1 seed, won Super Bowl XII
1976 - Cowboys 5-0 - NFC East Champs and #2 seed, lost Divisional round
1975 - Vikings 10-0 - NFC Central Champs and #2 seed, lost Divisional round
1974 - Cardinals 7-0 - NFC East Champs and #3 seed, lost Divisional round
1973 - Vikings 9-0 - NFC Central Champs and #1 seed, lost Super Bowl VIII
1972 - Dolphins 14-0 - AFC East Champs and #1 seed, won Super Bowl VII
1971 - Redskins 5-0 - NFC Wild Card and #4 seed, lost Divisional round
(3-way tie in 1970, three teams made it to week 4 and lost the early sunday game, I didn't bother to try to figure out how long each game lasted to break the tie)
1970 #1 - Lions 3-0 - NFC Wild Card and #4 seed, lost Divisional round
1970 #2 - Rams 3-0 - Missed Playoffs, but would have been the #5 seed in today's format (finished 9-4-1)
1970 #3 - Broncos 3-0 - Missed playoffs (finished 5-8-1)

So, there you go. 42 data points, and 2 missed the playoffs (under today's format), once in 1993, and perhaps once in 1970 if you consider Denver to be one of the last undefeated teams. That is roughly 1 in 20 teams. Will the Chiefs be the 3rd last undefeated team to miss the playoffs in 2010?

Something is missing in this whole discussion (not just this thread, but a couple yesterday).

The Chiefs were not the only 3-0 team. There were about four others, right?

The Chiefs are "the last" unbeaten only by a trick of the calendar. They need to win #4 to legitimize it.

Statistics!

Throwing out 1982. Anything involving # wins has to throw out 2010. Anything involving playoff performance has to throw out the 1970 Rams. For simplicity I am going to assume that teams seeded lower than #2 before the existence of the wild card round would have won in the wild card round.

Anything involving division champs might be a little screwed since it is easier to win a division when there are 4 of them, but what the hell, I'll include that anyway with that caveat.

Teams most often last undefeated (n=43):
4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
3 - Broncos, Cowboys
2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins
1 - 13 other teams

Wins before first loss (n=42):
3 - 7.1%
4 - 9.5%
5 - 14.3%
6 - 19.0%
7 - 11.9%
8 - 2.4%
9 - 9.5%
10 - 9.5%
11 - 4.8%
12 - 2.4%
13 - 2.4%
14 - 4.8%
16 - 2.4%
average - 7.45
median - 6.5 (exactly half at or under 6/over 6 wins)

Conference champ (n=42): 73.8%
Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21): 52.4%
Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2%

Performance (n=41):
Miss playoffs in current format - 4.9%
Lost in Wild Card round - 9.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 24.4%
Lost Conference championship - 14.6%
Lost Super Bowl - 24.4%
Won Super Bowl - 22.0%

Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=20):
Miss playoffs in current format - 10%
Lost in Wild Card round - 15%
Lost in Divisional round - 25%
Lost Conference championship - 15%
Lost Super Bowl - 25%
Won Super Bowl - 10%

Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 0%
Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 1/3

That is your definition, and it is a fair one. However, it is not the popular definition; you are in the minority on this. You are using the word "last" in the sense of someone finishing last (or first) in the standings, everyone else is using "last" in the sense of time. The Chiefs are the last unbeaten team in the media, so that's what I went with.

This is what ESPN was referring too.

Okay, everyone, let's give it up for alnorth. How about a round of applause for this guy and all of his hard work in this thread!

http://www.partycentral.com/dj/canad...e_jacket_1.jpg

While a valid thing to consider, it's not the question being asked in the thread.

Mike Shannahans Broncos won the first 6 games...McFistpumps team closed out the year.

:facepalm:

updated

Teams most often last undefeated (n=43):
4 - Colts, Dolphins, Rams, Vikings
3 - Broncos, Cowboys
2 - Bears, Chiefs, Eagles, Redskins
1 - 13 other teams

Wins before first loss (n=43):
3 - 9.3%
4 - 9.3%
5 - 14.0%
6 - 18.6%
7 - 11.6%
8 - 2.3%
9 - 9.3%
10 - 9.3%
11 - 4.7%
12 - 2.3%
13 - 2.3%
14 - 4.7%
16 - 2.3%
average - 7.35
median - 6

Conference champ (yes) (n=43): 74.4%
Conference champ, undefeated wins <=6 (yes) (n=22): 54.5%
Conference champ, undefeated wins >6 (n=21): 95.2%

Performance (n=42):
Miss playoffs in current format - 4.7%
Lost in Wild Card round - 11.9%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 21.4%

Performance, undefeated wins <=6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 9.5%
Lost in Wild Card round - 19.0%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 9.5%

Performance, undefeated wins >6 (n=21):
Miss playoffs in current format - 0%
Lost in Wild Card round - 4.8%
Lost in Divisional round - 23.8%
Lost Conference championship - 14.3%
Lost Super Bowl - 23.8%
Won Super Bowl - 1/3

I wouldn't count the Chiefs as the final unbeaten team. It should be a tie between them and the other 3-0 teams, and still this year was wayyyyy different than most in this category.

I didn't arbitrarily make up the rules to benefit my favorite football team, apparently the convention is chronological. In the event of a situation where you'd think there should be a tie (noon vs 3pm or monday night, not bye vs a bye) tie goes to whoever plays later. I didn't make up the rules, whoever did, it just helped the chiefs this time, so the Kansas City Chiefs Football Club was, officially, in the record books, the last undefeated NFL team in the year 2010, for all the good that did us!

What part of last unbeaten team is that hard to comprehend? They were the last team to lose.

ROFL This.
Posted via Mobile Device