My completely uninformed take on the Ravens game that will surely waste your time.
 

Hi.

So I've watched over a few Ravens games from the past three weeks and a couple of the primetime games from earlier in the year, and I've watched the Chiefs religiously all season. I've scoured the turnover ratios and compared both teams in the trenches. I've checked the weather forecast for Arrowhead for Sunday.

My completely unimportant conclusion is that this game is much closer to being a pure tossup than people make it out to be. Primarily because the scoring total between both teams won't surpass 20 points.

My prediction is that this game will end up with a silly, SportsCenter-defying 10-9 score.

The Ravens have a ton of talent on the offensive side on the ball, but it's been far more common this season that they simply haven't been able to put it together, rather than times where they have.

Rice is the only thing that's consistent on that offense. Everything on that offense is on again, off again. Flacco has had as many iffy games as he had good games this year. He can be had. His receivers, and that includes Derrick Mason, Boldin, and Hoosyermama, struggle to get open and match up pretty well with our secondary in terms of physicality. (Heap is a good player but he's not a world-beater.) Their offensive line falters quite a bit as well, and can get spanked if we put the right line-ups in (my vote is a Dorsey-Smith-Jackson DL for most of the game).

Rice, however, is an absolute beast that you MUST account for. Here's the thing, though -- the Ravens treat Ray Rice a lot like the Chiefs treat Jamaal Charles. They almost never give him the ball as much as he deserves. There have been as many games this season where he walks out with 10 carries as there are when he gets 20. He is a receiving threat out of the backfield, but the Chiefs don't really get smoked with RBs out of the backfield...

The Ravens will be able to move the ball occasionally, but the conditions in this game may make it impossible for them to sustain any kind of drive with our defensive weapons. Especially if the Chiefs can consistently get into the backfield, we have a chance to pitch a near shutout on this offense.

This is all necessary because our offense will be facing almost insurmountable odds against a front seven, especially a DL, that will crush the interior of our OL. But we've spent tons of time talking about the troubles the offense will have, although I think a good recovery by Bowe and a quick incorporation of Kevin Curtis may finally give us a complete-enough offense to put up a few field goals.

In this game, field goals can be enough.

In the end, I think the score will be so low that this game will come down to one or two MAJOR errors by one team to give the other a fatal opportunity take the win.

Both teams have been mistake prone all season. Neither are the epitome of disciplined, mistake-free squad, though both have had their flashes.

So this game, IMO, is basically a tossup. I won't pretend to know which side of the coin will land.

Yep i think the match-up of the game will be Rice vs Berry. If berry can shadow rice and contain him somewhat so he doesnt explode we will pull the upset

Baltimore is not as good as people think they are. I agree this will be a low scoring game that's pretty much a tossup.

Not a time waster.

You mean 16-10 Chiefs?

I'm not sure our DL can consistenty stop the run enough to keep the over/under under 20.

But man its good when you talk football.
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10-9 Chiefs.

Maybe. I think 10-9 Ravens is just as likely.

It's going to be a silly low-scoring game.

Well the over/under is 41. You might as well fly to Vegas, put your life savings on the under, go to the game, fly back to Vegas pick up your life savings * 2 and go home up a bunch of money.

Edit: Go to Pittsburgh/New England, then the other, then Dallas, then home.

They certainly can when we play the right DL.

Use Edwards sparingly. Smith at DE sparingly.

Plug a hungry Shaun Smith in the middle. Give him some help with Belcher. T.Jack has been a nightmare at LDE for the last quarter of the year -- utilize your blue chip player on a hot streak. Bring in Gilberry when you have them on their heels. Slide Edwards over to a 3-tech to Hali's side of the protection schemes turn out to be ridiculously Hali-obsessed. Edwards can get penetration.

Our DL is not a total fraud.

Do you trust Crennel to use the correct packages? I'll be ****ing pissed if this turns out just like the Raider game.

Crennel has been money 80% of the time this season, and has been on point against the best offenses we've played. When the stakes get higher, he's responded.

Weis is the coordinator I'm concerned over. Not Crennel.

THe game is up to a coin toss...so, you're predicting it goes to overtime?

herp derp!

PBJ

My hopes are that Hali dominates a injured Oher that leads the league in false starts in a stadium that leads theNFL in causing false starts and causes him into some ill timed throws that turn into interceptions and then after we are up and its late in the game, Hali strips Flacco of the ball and puts the nail in the coffin.

Please GOD let it happen.

I like your take on Ngata. The Ngata/Suggs matchup against the Chiefs o-line could be a critical factor. After what happened last weekend, early pressure on Cassel could cause his mechanics to break down again, and that could be disastrous for the Chiefs.

I'd think Weis would want to slow the Ravens pass rush early by running Charles wide and getting DMC the ball in space on short passes.

On offense, we MUST come out and show them a lot of stuff we haven't used yet. If we come out and run a lot of plays we have put on tape, that veteran defense will be ready to pounce.

Ive said i before, but I hope we come out with DMC and Charles BOTH in the backfield and put em in motion (or shift) to get them into advantageous matchups for us.

I dont see this as a game that Jones can help us a whole lot as that older defense can be beat by quickness and speed, but has shown to be as physical as any defense in the league.

We have a good chance at winning this one, but we MUST have a GREAT gameplan to do so.

Offensively, they don't scare me at all. We match up very well in that regard. Bolden is still Bolden so you have to respect that but Mason and Hoosyourmama are washed up. Heap is a shell of his former self. Stallworth, they rarely pass to. Their Oline is BAD and Oher is banged up. Flacco is grossly overrated and REALLY stinks in the playoffs. I don't know why people are worried about Ray Rice. We have done much better against Ray Rice type backs than we have against big backs.

Defensively, they are overrated. They can't rush the passer. Their "vaunted run defense" is overrated. If you look at their games, they aren't really stopping the teams #1 back. They are doing a great job against backups. (IE, Charles will get his yards and Thomas will get 2.2 YPC). If you look at the list below, not only aren't the stopping teams #1 RB's but they haven't faced a back of the caliber of Charles except Adrian Foster, who averaged 5.0 YPC.

Thomlinson -- 5.6 YPC
Cedric Benson -- 3.4 YPC (about his average)
Peyton Hillis -- 6.5 YPC
Mendenhall -- 3.2 (average is 3.9 over the season, but this was with Charlie Batch in at QB)
Moroney -- 4.5 (6 carries, denver hardly ran it)
Woodhead -- 5.7 (never heard of him, 11/63 for NE)
Fred Jackson -- 3.2 (who?)
Ronnie Brown -- 6.6
Michael Turner 2.3 (first good RB that they've stopped. 9 games into the season. Granted, anyone that watches football knows that he's lost a step)
M. Goodson -- 5.5 YPC (20/120..who?)
Blount -- 4.2 YPC
Mendenhall -- 2.4 YPC (rematch wasn't good. Big Ben was in, so no excuse. Still a 3.9 YPC back though)
Adrian Foster -- 5.0 YPC
Pierre Thomas 3.3 YPC (Year average is 3.2)
Peyton Hillis -- 2.9 YPC (McCoy was in, terrible offensive day overall by the Browns)
Benson --2.5 YPC (It's the Bengals)

The more and more that I look at the Ravens, the more I think we have a better than 50/50 chance to win.

So, what I got out of this.....

Chiefs in the superbowl? Sounds good.

I also expect Javier Arenas to play a big game. I think they wil blitz him a couple times to bring added pressure and that he will do a good job in coverage.

He could make a difference making sack if he gets a chance. This is his kind of game.

To me, the single most important thing the Chiefs must do to win is to make Thomas Jones an afterthought.

If we come out running Jones up the gut on first and second down, the Chiefs will be in a lot of 3rd and long situations, and teh Ravens will piss pound Cassel.

It all comes down to dealing w/ Ngata in my opinion. If we can run stretch plays to the outside and keep him from dragging Wiegmann and Waters with him on his way to dump Cassel within 2 seconds of the snap on passing downs, then we have a great chance to win this game. Suggs will be a big issue on passing downs too. I'd say we just keep running the ball and use the pass sparingly. Lots of screens and draws.

If either offense scores 2 TDs I'll be surprised, and that will be the team that wins.

You've never heard of Danny Woodhead? Even I know who that guy is.

I disagree.

The Ravens are going to be keying on the run.

I believe the Chiefs have to be balanced in order to be successful.

I believe they have to show play action on first downs in order to keep the Ravens off balance defensively.

If the Chiefs come out simply trying to establish the run, I believe they'll get thier asses handed to them.

This is a really good analysis of their run D. They've faced Hillis, Turner, Mendenhall, Blount and Foster and that's the extent of the good backs they've faced this year. Charles has the speed that can really gash this defense. They haven't faced a speed back like him all year.

They can be had.

I think their corners are the weak link of the entire team. They flat out suck. If Reed wasn't back there, the Chiefs could hang 300 yards passing on them.

yea, ive been wondering about this myself. His role in the regular season was basically to take the load off of Charles and save him for the really "important" games. Well, here are the really "important" games........

Yep.

I don't care how good your running game is. This is the NFL, and if a team knows what you are going to do, they can stop it.

Everyone and their mom knows KC wants to run the ball. If we are going to be successful though, we need to keep Baltimore off balance with play-action, a decent mid-range passing attack, and the occasional deep threat. We will need the passing game to show it needs to be accounted for to open up running lanes.

I think they can hang 300 on them even with him back there. The trick is, it needs to start early. They have something they haven't had in years, and that's speed. Use it. Work screens off playaction to Charles and McCluster, get the line out to the second level and put some hits on Lewis to demoralize him the way we all remember from 6 years ago, then add Bowe and Moeaki into the mix and then, finally, start to work in the traditional run game. Establish the pass to open the run, get Cassel into a rhythm early, and don't allow the Baltimore defense to get into a position where they can get comfortable and dictate what the Chiefs do. Start fast on Sunday and stay aggressive. Try and get the bulk of the carries in the second half.

Unfortunately I don't expect them to do that. I think we'll see a three and out in the first series featuring two Jones running plays for no gain and then a wobbly off-target pass in Bowe's general direction that's almost picked in a long yardage situation.

when you look at stats: http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/201101...fs#tab:analyze

the only significant difference are:

Chiefs run offense - way better than the Ravens
Ravens run defense - 93 yards per game

and points allowed:

Ravens - 16.9
Chiefs - 20.4

3.5 points is huge in the nfl

Flacco and Cassel are almost mirrors statistically, with the main difference being accuracy:

Flacco - 62%
Cassel - 58%

but their ratings are basically the same

it really comes down to can we get Charles loose against their front 7....and then will Casasel or Flacco not crap their pants....

We need to hold their defensive linemen. If we get called for it often, they will win, if we get away with it all game, we win.


Simple.

I think this is a game where we really see how good Cassel can be. He should have the chance to sling the ball around against a weak Ravens secondary. This will be the key to victory IMO.

If he has a good game we win. Simple as that.

I think snowy weather could help the offenses, as long as it isn't really windy. I've heard quite a few offensive players say they like it because they know when they were going to make their cut, and they can get space because the DB is slower to react.

...and a defense or ST score.

I tend to agree.

The Chiefs have actually been successful shutting down the run against run-heavy teams. They get killed when they start playing balanced teams like the Chargers.

It's the offense that worries me. I think Reed will eat Cassel for lunch and the Ravens are going to stack the line to stop the run.

Its been said before, but one of the best weapons against baltimore will be the play action pass. I would love to drop a few screen passes on them with
Charles or McCluster.

This is unequivocally WRONG.

The first play from scrimmage on offense: TJ up the middle. Flea Flicker back to Cassel to Bowe for 80 yards and a TD.

Then TJ can ride the pine.

:D

Add in a Haley-trademarked fake punt or double-reverse flea flicker and I'm on board.

[QUOTE=keg in kc;7327983]I think they can hang 300 on them even with him back there. The trick is, it needs to start early. They have something they haven't had in years, and that's speed. Use it. Work screens off playaction to Charles and McCluster, get the line out to the second level and put some hits on Lewis to demoralize him the way we all remember from 6 years ago, then add Bowe and Moeaki into the mix and then, finally, start to work in the traditional run game. Establish the pass to open the run, get Cassel into a rhythm early, and don't allow the Baltimore defense to get into a position where they can get comfortable and dictate what the Chiefs do. Start fast on Sunday and stay aggressive. Try and get the bulk of the carries in the second half.

QUOTE]

Absolutley...it has to start early right from our first offensive series.