Soren Petro 1% Theory
 

http://www.810whb.com/page.php?page_id=140


Listen to the Adam Teicher podcast on The Program.

Go to 25m 34s Mark




This is Great.

Teicher goes full BobBlackCock and says losing Bowe is no big loss for the Chiefs.

I ****ing hate when people do this.

Could you ****ing elaborate a bit for those of us that aren't in a position to listen to an entire (or even part of a) podcast?

Yes, losing the 2nd best WR in franchise history is no big deal.

NO ****ing shit.

This.

He Thinks every move made by Pioli has made the Chiefs 1% worse.

"When you get 1% worse, it's not a big deal until you do it 50 times."

This is the Pioli way. Lots of small cuts with marginal moves, and we're in the final stages of bleeding out. (These two sentences are mine.)

Mark Casel is responsible for WAY more than 1%.

Petro uses Carr/Routt as one example of getting 1% worse at a position, and if you get 1% worse at a position x number of times, you're ****ed. He goes on to elaborate other positions where the Chiefs have let a guy walk only to replace them with marginally worse talent.

And quality they are.

So what, are we now at the right 53%?

Makes Teicher laugh by elaborating about Berry getting his ass handed to him by Antonio Gates.

5-10% worse with the Routt move.

This theory is wrong.

Pioli hasn't done a bad job with 90% of this team. It just so happens that the 10% was so glaringly bad it ****ed up the rest of the 90%.

Eric Winston says we suck as fans...

The problem is that when you put a 20/20 buffoon who touches the ball on 100% of the offensive plays you can see 50/50 that he's going to mess it up 50% of the time. 50% is a big number. It's nearly half. That's a lot of screwups and when you turn the ball over the other team has it and then you get to defend. If you can't defend and you can't get the ball back then you aren't going to win a lot of them ballgames.

This is wrong.

Guys like Stanford Routt, Javier Arenas, Kendrick Lewis, Allen Bailey, Tyson Jackson, Jeff Allen, Tony Moeaki, Dexter McCluster and Jon Baldwin are mediocre at best football players, and that is a large percentage of our key contributors.

He has done a bad job, period. With the whole team.

It's a decent roster. I'd rank it somewhere slightly above league average, thanks to Herm.

Quarterback and head coach issues completely undermine it.

There is no way that Routt is even in Carr's league.

The last two seasons here Carr was a very good corner.

Routt is average on a good day, and utter dogshit on his worst.

Definitely not defending the guy. As I've said, he was so stubborn, arrogant, and unbelievably bad at ****ing up the few really key decisions here that I'm 100% on board the Fire Pioli bandwagon.

But while Herm's talent provided a nice foundation, we have to remember this is a team that had less than 10 even halfway decent players out of 53. We now have a pretty solid starting lineup in most of the 22, and some quality depth. And we did it without spending very much money, so we're in tremendous cap shape.

Pioli set the team up for the next guy to take over such that a new coaching staff and a real QB turns this team into a deep playoff contender.

Interested to hear how you rationalize this? How important is the QB position? He certainly royally screwed the pooch on that one HUGE part. That alone is worth more than 10% **** up.

Carr just completely shut down Victor Cruz.

Heyward-Bey and Moore just curb-stomped Routt.

5-10% worse my ass.

So the team is only 60.5% of what it was when Pioli took over?

Maybe.

It sure isn't better. :shake:

This.

4 years later, and our best players are STILL the guys that were already here.

Christ, even Eric Berry, who we all thought was a can't miss guy has been ****ing brutal.

Clay, you nailed it regarding that list of players. Mediocre. At best.

Anybody else think Carr has turned out to be the better CB than Flowers? Not that Flowers is a piece of shit or anything. It's just that Carr is that damn good.

I'm talking about this being the 80-20 principle. 80% of your success is depending on 20% of your team. And it so happens that Pioli ****ed up a lot of that 20%. Royally, and in ways he can't repair.

Trust me, this is anything but a defense of the guy.

Again, agree to disagree.

We need two WRs, a G, depth at HB, and probably a center if Hudson doesn't recover (that was a bad ****ing injury). We might need a TE. Debatable.

Oh yeah, and two quarterbacks.

I'm willing to let Poe have a chance at NT next year. So we'll need a complete overhaul at defensive end, probably a replacement for Belcher, a new starting CB, and at least one safety.

The depth on this team is crap and everyone knows it. Who plays OLB if Hali or Houston go down? Scrub city.

The roster was completely, completely overrated the whole offseason. But that's what you get when people think Allen Bailey and Dexter McCluster are worth shit. They ain't.

Well Pioli is succeeding at getting to 1% interest.

I'll say this.....I'm as guilty as the next guy in thinking how great this team looks on paper. However, it's difficult to condemn the entire team based on poor coaching and HORRIBLE QB play. I truely believe our Defense is better than they've shown, but with a Cassel led offense that couldn't score on WVU it's difficult to judge the Defense. We've proven that we can run the ball. I've become more for changing the coaching staff, Pioli, and Cassel....then evaluating the team as opposed to a complete overhaul.

Don't even get me going about Carr. SOOOOOO many here said Routt was just as good as Carr. He isn't. Not even close. So, what do I get for being right? Nothing, except to see my secondary get abused week to week.

No team is going to have elite talent in all your starting 22, let alone your 53 man roster. The needs you mentioned are easy to fill, especially for a team that hasn't spent much money. You add a real QB and you'll barely notice those problems you mention.

I don't think Draughn and Hillis are that bad, but they're not going to work when you have 8-9 guys stacking the box because you don't throw deep. Bowe, Breaston, and McCluster are a solid WR trio and most QBs would do well with that group. And at Guard, we don't know what we have in Jeff Allen yet. At TE, when we have Boss back, Boss/Moeaki is a solid enough tandem at a position that doesn't have to be as important as we make it, because of our stubbornness to run Erhardt-Perkins.

We don't have many bad starters. We have some starters who aren't as good as we'd like them to be. Cassel is the obvious and glaring exception. But this is a much better supporting cast than, say, Aaron Rodgers has often had to play with (especially given that Jennings can't stay healthy).

Yes, and many of us were saying this long before Carr was released. Hell, we were defending the guy when people were calling for Carr to be cut.

It's a broken bone and he could have come back this season.

That said, a center might be a good idea anyway. Allen hasn't been very good at guard. They could sign/draft a center, move Hudson back to LG and jettison Lilja. Keep Allen as a backup since he could also play RT.

A new coach gets this team playing tough. Our defense was nails last year to close the season, because they were hitting people in the mouth.

A new offensive coordinator opens up the offense instead of the predictable bullshit Daboll is marching out there.

A new QB turns Bowe into a 1,500 yard receiver, and opens up a whole shitload of real estate for Charles and Hillis and Draughn, not to mention for McCluster underneath.

I still stand behind the claim that a very good coach and QB make this team a strong playoff team. But Pioli doesn't get to make that decision.

Most of his moves have been terrible.

Baldwin isn't an impact player. Bowe was immediately. Hillis is shit. Brokaki was a terrible selection in light of the other TEs available. CB is worse. D-line still sucks.

Houston. Right now, he's the one true success that Pioli has. Thank goodness for marijuana, or we wouldn't even have him.

Did you see the last two games?

Our running game is a trainwreck.

LJ would have beaten multiple women running behind this line.

It's bullshit. We can survive with Routt. We can survive with the entire defense. We can survive with the offense, with one exception: a quarterback that was at the top of his position. Because those guys lift the entire team. Ours has dragged it down. Turnovers killed the season.

It's a hard pill to swallow, and I'm sure it's a newsflash to a town that's lived with the martyocre way of doing things for 20 years, but you don't have to have superstars everywhere. You just have to have one. And he has to be behind center. Do you want more? **** yeah you do. You want that game-changing passrusher. You want guys on offense that can break plays. But you rise and fall in today's NFL with the quarterback. You can have 'guy's literally everywhere else. You just can't have one running the offense. Because no matter who else you have, if you don't have a quarterback, you're ****ed. Just ****ed.

Unfortunately, we don't even have a 'guy' under center.

They were hitting Tim Tebow, Caleb hanie, Curtis Painter, Kyle Boller and Donovan McNabb in the mouth.

Fool's gold.

Hitting people in the mouth doesn't work anymore, anyway. You can't touch receivers or quarterbacks, and no one wants to run the ball.

ROFL

You know what a guy like Stanford Routt does on a good team?

He gets you beat in the first round of the playoffs.

And sorry, but we can't survive with this DL. It's horrible.

Difficult to judge the defense?

They've allowed points in the 1st quarter in every game this season. Can't blame the offense for that.

54 1st quarter points in 7 games. An average of almost 8 points.

Sorry, but this defense sucks, and the coaching and QB play are only part of the reason why.

I'd agree with you if any team we played had to respect the passing game or didn't know exactly what was coming at them. Even our passes equate to runs, so we have to be the easiest team in the NFL to defend. Daboll is about as creative as a teenager with a handful of playboys....every knows what's cumming.

Yes on most points. Our offensive line went from worst to very good and I believe they could be a top-notch o-line behind a real QB. Our receiver corps went from Bowe and 2 complete rejects to pretty solid. We have a 3-deep RB tandem which we can't see, because defenses are gunning so much for short shit, it's not funny. Our tight ends could be better, but they're solid enough. As a whole, our offensive supporting cast has all the pieces in place to be top tier with a very good QB.

On defense... I don't have a problem with our front 5. DJ and Berry are better than what they're coached to be now. Dorsey and Jackson were fine last year, and Poe will improve. Our corners are better than a lot of trios out there -- think we're nitpicking a bit if we rag on them.

If Poe continues to improve, we get real coaching, and we get a real QB, this is a terrific team. Our pieces look so bad because, again, Pioli made such glaringly bad decisions fueled by arrogance at the few positions you absolutely positively cannot afford to **** up.

Truthiness.

Pioli's done a good job on the OL. Jeff Allen is a rookie dude. You want to give Poe a chance, but say Allen sucks? What?

And not even a handful of teams can replace their big players. We lose Houston or Tamba and we're boned. Guess what? Denver loses Von and they're boned. Vikings lose Jared Allen and they're boned.

Only teams I can think of off hand that can still be really good without their best pass rusher are the Giants and Niners.

Sorry, but you need more than just a QB.

Look at the Falcons.

Is Ryan surrounded by a bunch of mediocre slapdicks?

Allen is performing at a league-worst level.

Poe has held his own to some degree.

Pioli has had some good OL players brought in, I said as much last week.

Rest of the guys he has brought in are trash.

It's a huge part though. 1st quarter points wouldn't be a topic if we could score ANY outside of the final 3 minutes. I think sucks is too strong, but we've obvisouly degressed from last season....some by atrition and some by poor play. Still I think the potential for a solid D is there. Not great mind you, but solid. The interior, secondary, and Safety all could use some upgrades.

There are tons of successful playoff teams in the last five years that have done it with banged-up or just plain bad secondaries, as well as bad defenses.

They had quarterbacks that could carry them.

We don't. Obviously.

You guys are getting too hung up on positions that are of...secondary importance. Pun intended.

They could have Deion out there, it wouldn't matter this year. Cassel would find a way.

**** all this talk about Carr or whoever else. Get us a ****ing quarterback already.

Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and we actually did as admirable job as we could against New England before the Tyler Palko gimmick was doomed to fail. I'm just pointing out that this defense is NOT the defense we saw last year, regardless of competition. DJ is a totally different player. Our defensive line is getting mauled at the point of attack. We're missing tackles left and right.

Hitting in the mouth works. Watch Seattle's defense. You have 11 guys playing through every whistle, outhustling the offense, and beating up offensive lines. That is the kind of defense we should be playing. Our defense gives up in the second quarter and nobody plays with any discipline because nobody is doing their job.

He's got more physical talent but Flowers is your more consistent player...

Where are these good OLmen he's brought in?

Allen has been a trainwreck, Asomoah has been serviceable, Lilja can't get the ball to the ****ing QB or block, and Winston has ****ing sucked balls. His man is usually the first to the QB.

Albert has been our best OL this season, by far, IMO.

And people wanted to run him the **** out of town...

Exactly. We saw how horrible Indy was without Peyton. Brady led Reche ****ing Caldwell and Chad Jackson to an AFC Championship game behind an average defense. Rodgers and Brees have won games with an average defense and a gazillion injuries to their offense.

This is a solid football team outside of the QB position.

I tend to agree, but it certainly would help.....see the 2011 Packers, 2010 Saints, and hell nearly all of the Patriot SB teams.

All the constant discussion about CBs is the most wasted bandwidth on this forum anymore. CBs are overrated. Find pass rushers.

There are teams that make it to the Super Bowl on an almost yearly basis with worse CBs than the Chiefs. Most people couldn't name the CBs on most recent championship teams, except for Charles Woodson, and even he missed half of the Super Bowl injured. This is becoming almost as arcane as saying you need a great RB to win. The teams that win rush the passer the best.

Our o-line looked elite behind Orton. Asamoah, Hudson, and Winston are three solid moves. And Jeff Allen is still a rookie playing mostly out of position.

Our o-line has rated mostly well. You can't blame an o-line for not playing nails behind a QB so bad that nobody guards anything past 10 yards. Nor can you blame them for blowing blocks when the QB is too dumb to check into a blitz pickup in his pre-snap reads.

A real QB makes this offensive line very good.

The discussion about CBs is just a point being used to make that Pioli hasn't brought in talent at a lot of positions.

Including pass rushers.

He has brought in one pass rusher. In four years.

And he let Babin and Gilberry go.

He's a monster.

RGIII is -- his supporting cast is terrible. It's not like Luck is surrounded by elite talent.

Amazing how both those offensive supporting casts went from awful to very good with a simple QB change.

I don't want solid. I want elite.

This team isn't good enough to win a SB, even with Brady.

Brady would be screaming his ****ing head off at Jon Baldwin and demanding better receivers.

Neither of those teams are winning anything this year.

RGIII and Luck will need help to win a SB. Guaranteed.

Not to derail the thread, but RGIII is getting a lot of credit but he's not delivering W's. I love the kid, but I think everyone is a bit over enamored with him.

Again....I LOVE the kid.

21st in the league in sacks.

Meanwhile, I'll wait patiently for someone to blame RAC for the fact that 29 other NFL players have more sacks than Tamba Hali.

Dude, Seattle's defense has a bunch of really good cover guys and great pass rushers. A bunch of 'em.

They're built to attack the passing game.

What do we have? Two pass rushers and one corner. And a brokedick safety.

You've been on point a fair amount lately, but this is laugable. Don't you recall the WR corp that Brady has won SB's with? Bowe, Breaston, Baldwin and yes even McCluster are better than any of those as a group.

That's a fair statement, but I would argue a lot of these players turn from solid to very good with a coaching / QB change.

The good news is that the next GM gets a team with a solid foundation and a nice cap to work with. I don't think it takes long at all for a GM to turn this team into a deep playoff contender. I think that GM could do it in one offseason.

Soren Petro and Adam Teicher. Journalists.

Wrong. Baldwin and McCluster are trash. Breaston is outta here.

Deion Branch is better than Baldwin and McCluster, and it's not even close.

Elite?

You live in a ****ing fantasy world.

Then again, you think the entire roster is "solid" outside the QB position.

The reasoning behind 1-6 is a helluva lot more than the QB, folks. And that's coming from the President of the **** Matt Cassel Fan Club.

That's BS. DJ is a pro bowl calibre player when he plays with his head on straight. Our d-line wasn't elite, but they were doing their jobs. They're not anymore. They're playing passive and lazy. We have enough pieces to be a very good defense -- you take Haley's 2011 defense and add in Berry and assume Poe turns into a player, and that's an elite defense.

Come on? How good did Deion Branch look in Seattle without TB?

I'm with you on a lot of this, but you're off base with this.

As the President of the **** Matt Cassel Fan Club, I AGREE with this message.

The whole defensive line needs an overhaul. None of these guys can get up the field. They're fire hydrants. Maybe Poe can stay, everyone else is garbage if we dump the 2-gap.

Do I really need to scream my head off again about the secondary? We have one good CB on this team. ONE.

He had 725 yards his first season there.

Jon Baldwin will never have 600 yards in an NFL season. Write it down.

Derrick Johnson has maybe two good seasons left. He's hardly a guy I'd tout as being anything special, especially given that he's really only had one above average season.

Outside of Poe and possibly Powe, every one of these mother****ers can hit the road. They're not even AVERAGE.


LMAO

Haley's defense? Haley's defense?

ROFL

****ing ingenious. You mean if the guys you use to replace the guys you lost arent as good, then your team will be worse? WOW, what ****ing enlightment! This dude should patent this awesome theory!

Seriously.

I'm glad I picked today to stick my head in and check things out. I needed a laugh.

No, he's not.

The Chiefs receiving corp, outside of Bowe, is dogshit.

No. It's the QB, it's our unimaginative offensive coordinator, and our clueless head coach. And our absent defensive coordinator, who happens to be our defensive coach.

It's not like these guys are not doing these jobs. These guys have been impressively bad.

C'mon, think back to Green Bay and Pittsburgh last year. Charles starts over Battle, Hillis is your goal line back, Moeaki starts over McConnell, Berry starts over Piscitelli, Boss starts over Pope. You can't tell me that's not a very good team, even with average Kyle Orton at the helm.

Now add in a coach that plays with Jim Harbaugh discipline and toughness. An defense with the imagination of Dom Capers. An offense with the imagination of Harbaugh's.

Even with Kyle Orton and those pieces above, you're going to tell me that you add those to last year's second half Chiefs and this isn't a team with a shot at a deep playoff run?

It might as well be 2009 all over again for a lot of the people that post here.

Haley's a good to great coach and the team's just a player away from the playoffs. McCluster is the bomb, he just needs more touches. And Jackson and Dorsey are NOT overrated.

LMAO

Oh, and EVERYONE had a bad 2009 draft! Haven't you heard?

No talent whatsoever.

Capers?

LMAO

The ****ing guy should have been fired 2 years ago! The Packers weakness is their shit defensive scheme.

It was Haley's defense from the standpoint that they played disciplined and tough. This defense's attitude has done a 180.