Alex Smith end of season stats (what if?)
 

3,500 yards - 25 TD - 10 INT - 80 QBR - 56% Completion - and all 16 games started w/no injury

Is that performance worth the two 2nd round picks KC paid?

Also... would those numbers merit a contract extension and he then gets to groom his eventual replacement?

I would say it is, assuming the Chiefs make a serious investment at QB in the draft.

They have yet to do that. They may never do that. But yeah.

Those are pedestrian numbers at best. only about 300 more yards total than what he has ever thrown in a season, with a pitiful QBR, and completion percentage.

for it to be justified this season, the team has to make the playoffs, Alex needs to approach 4k the td int is fine, 95 qbr, and 65 percent completion percentage. That would make the trade worthy.

Depends on the team W/L i'd say.

Honestly, it depends.

Is there meaning behind those stats?

i.e., How many of those TDs game winners? Did they make a difference between winning and losing? Did a good percentage of those passing yards come from when the team was trailing and provide the difference between us winning and losing? I'd look for those kinda things before deciding whether or not he was worth the second round pick.

depends on if we win 8 games with those stats. Isn't that the number they based the 2nd round draft pick on?

EDIT

Yes, I would expect we would win at least 8 games if he has those stats. But, stranger things have happened.

We talking the new QBR or the old passer rating?

If the new QBR, 80 is pretty damn good. 56% completion percentage is abysmal but 25/10 would be pretty good.

56 percent completion percentage. probably means that Alex is still horrible on 3rd down. To get 3500 yards and only 56 percent completion percentage?

The chiefs are trailing a lot. Some how with that Alex Smith only throws 10 picks?

Cassel circa 2010.

**** that.

If we're purely looking at these stats,

what ThaVirus said ^

Im not sure it would be possible to have a qbr that high with the espn system with the completion percentage being so low.

Like, anything under 60 percent is considered really bad now days.

To put it in perspective. Brandon Weeden completed 57 percent of his passes last year.

That's what I was thinking..

Either way, I don't want to see Alex Smith garnering any kind of handcuffing extension.

Does anyone actually have any faith that we won't extend this guy?

If he doesn't play well, why would we? It's not like Reid extends guys who don't perform. Hell, he traded McNabb after he had a probowl season.

I do. Absolutely. If Alex doesn't perform the way that Andy wants, and Bray shows steps forward next season, I could definitely see Bray replacing Alex Smith next season during the year, and Alex being gone after the season.

Now, if Alex Smith comes out and proves to be a top 10 qb, then yeah, he will have earned it.

If I was forced to bet, I would bet HARD on the former, and laugh at anyone taking the latter.

Andy Reid was the first and only choice of Clark Hunt. Therefore, Clark thinks Reid is a great coach, and we should expect great things from from the Chiefs. Great things = multiple Super Bowl titles.

We gave up two 2nd round picks on the basis of "This is the QB that Andy Reid always wanted". So a great coach who is expected to win multiple Super Bowls got the QB of his dreams. We should still be on track for multiple Super Bowls titles.

Does the performance described in the OP put us on a trajectory to win multiple Super Bowls during the Alex Smith era, given the rest of the talent on the team?

I don't think so. That would make this a very bad trade, or a very bad selection of a head coach. Everyone got what they wanted, so we should expect greatness, not mediocrity.

(Did you mean 66% rather than 56% - 56 would be awful...)

In any case, I probably wouldn't quantify the value of the trade based on just one season. Taken by itself, a 3500 yard/25 TD season would be 'okay'. Better than we're used to, and most likely enough for a fat extension, but basically just middle-of-the-pack in today's NFL.

Thinking longer-term, if that ends up being his average over 4 or 5 years at the helm of what is almost certainly intended be a pass-heavy offense, then I'd be disappointed. I think he needs to be significantly better than that over the long haul, in the 4000 yard/30 TD range at minimum. Less than that, and it probably means he hasn't produced to the level they want, and we've been forced to go ball control to hide his limitations. I hope it doesn't go that route.

But the value of the trade, that's going to be really difficult to ascertain for a few years, unless he either blows the doors off and has a huge year or flames out biblically and gets shitcanned.

Well put.

Until I see anything different, I'm going to miserably expect this to be the 2nd iteration of casshole's stay here. Hell, they even handed Smith the job without any possibility of competition in the exact same way.

But, they didn't immediately extend his contract to $65 million so there is that.

No, we just gave up an extra potential 2nd round pick, which is of far more value to me since I don't pay the bills.

The worst part is that nobody's expecting us to win a championship this year. So realistically, any joy I might get from any success we have this year will be mitigated by the thought that we're basically just playing for the right to give the 9ers our 2nd round pick next year instead of our 3rd.

8 year rebuild plan

2009-2016

Chiefs football

I'd agree. Did he put the team in position to win? Is the TD/INT ratio or number of yards truly indicitive of his performance? Just my opinion, but the number of wins count in my book.
I never understood the old QB rating system (WTF is 158.3 perfect?), so I'm not going to comment on the new one.
I'm not quite ready to jump on the Bray bandwagon just yet, but if he pans out as well as he played in game 4 of the preseason, why worry about where he was or wasn't drafted. Sure enough he was playing against 2s and 3s, but he was playing with 2s and 3s and a lot that aren't employed today.

I seriously hope his completion % is much higher.

My preference would be 3500+ yards, over 60% completions, 2:1 TD/int ratio, and a 10-6 record or better. Anything less and we were slightly hosed on the deal.

I would like to see two seasons like that but, if we make the playoffs then yes, it's worth it to me. Second round picks don't stick as much as people think.

Who cares what the stats are if we win? We have been missing leadership at that position for a long time. If he gets a couple of game winning drives, he was worth it.

56% is ****in awful...i hope hes better than that

No.

I get the anger but, why not win now? Why do you care about the stats if we win? Don't you want to see the six pro bowlers and Flowers actually do something for once? I assume you are like me and have invested a lot of time watching these guys. Think about how they feel. They want to win. Like it or not Smith was the best QB available and they are going to play hard for him. This isn't Cassel part deux. I guess he'll have to prove it and winning cures everything.

Every team hopes to continue building and stay in the hunt. If you don't think they are doing that you are crazy. But, the window is closing and I think they believe we have some damn good talent.

Winning in the playoffs maybe would help?

Regardless what happens this year I want us to draft a quarterback in next years draft to be our guy for the future. They can compete and have Bray compete as well.

I'm sick of retreads so he best win in the playoffs and make Chiefs look good doing it.

Why not win now? That's been said during DT time. That's what Dick Vermeil tried we are always in the win now mode never are we building for Championships.

I'm cool with that and I think we will if the opportunity arises. It's just really sad how Pioli rocked Chiefs Kingdom to its core. He's gone now and I think some don't really realize it. I don't know what else Clark needs to do. He got a new GM he is very blue collar and forthcoming, we have three new QBs, and a proven winner of a HC. Pioli sucked ass but, he is gone. Let's give these guys a chance.

Exactly. Kids and fantasy footballers can focus on the numbers like this, but all that ever really matters are the wins.

I would easily suspect Smith's completion % to be much better. At least in the 60's. The QBR would likely be in the upper 80's to low 90's. TD/INT ratio looks good enough. Yardage would obviously be higher unless people are wrong about Reid's planned aggression... or Smith misses a few games.

Overall, if he puts up your numbers and KC either goes to or just misses the playoffs at 9-7? Then, I'd say it was a decent and promising start... and to expect even better from the 2014 season.

So now, you think Smith is not good enough, and your money is on him getting booted? Do I have that right? Am I to understand that you have now flip-flopped already on Smith just for the sake of sucking CP's e-penis?

If so...

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/9360/deadhorse.gif

Good post and I agree. People are consumed by numbers.

I like the Alex Smith I saw the past two years.

I like the fact that Alex was very masterful at running the offense, the pre play adjustments, the giving the players a chance to make a play, the ability to be clutch when he needed to be, and not having to be THE GUY.

I have no idea how Andy Reid is going to use Alex Smith. Until I see that, I am skeptical.

Even you have to admit that Alex's strength is not pushing the ball down the field.

Until I see it done consistently, I even as big of a fan of Alex as I am, aint buying it. I will gladly eat crow when I see it. This doesn't mean im sucking anything. I am merely maintaining what I have said since I have been here.

Being realistic, makes me no less of an Alex Smith fan. I just have no problem admitting ive never seen him be asked to carry an offense, and be successful.

Expect around a 61% completion percentage, 2800 yards, a bottom 10 3rd down conversion rate, and 15-18 TD's.

This.

Or, restated in an easier way:

Are these Matt Cassel "Pro Bowl" numbers?

with Jamaal & DBOWE primary targets on the other end of those passes, I'm going to say you're off. 3500 yd area, 25 td's.

can't find stats for any of this so it can't be important /cp elite

too early to be feeding the TROLLS ace......:D

I'd say no; simply because of the price of two 2nds.

at least you think the chiefs will win 8 games.

Who cares about stats?

Because if you only focus on wins, those wins aren't sustainable. It's a sign of a football team getting away with more than they should, and eventually (next year or in the playoffs) that shit usually comes crashing down.

There are very few teams that can win in the playoffs year after year after year and not "look good" on paper.

We don't want 2010 again. 2010 can go **** itself in the eye.

I should've also stated that my view was based simply on the stats. If they make it to the AFC Championship game etc, then it's worth it. But, they won't.

I say they're 6-10 / 8-8 team.

oh, they aren't making the playoffs if alex smith has those kind of stats. You have to throw a shit ton of short passes to only get 3500 yards. and to complete that little of percentage.

No, no way. no how.

with 3500 yds and 25/10 TD/INT, need about 65% completion, imo. 80 QBR would be great, but only 1 QB in the entire NFL (Peyton Manning) bettered that number last year, might be a bit unrealistic.

It depends on a variety of factors.

1) How many yards and TDs did KC rush for? If the answer is "top 5 in NFL" the yardage and TD numbers look a little better.

2) What is his third-down conversion percentage?

3) How did he perform against elite defenses? Was he able to challenge them enough downfield to keep the O moving and productive?

4) How many PPG did the Chiefs' offense produce (and does it include a fluky-high number of return TDs?)

5) How did the team perform in the playoffs (if it made it)? Did Alex Smith make plays in clutch situations to beat elite teams and elite defenses when it mattered?

well, Super Bowl QB Trent Dilfer says Hi:

2000 regular season games
11 games played
cmp 134
att 226
cmp% 59.3
YDS 1502
avg 6.65
TD 12
INT 11

2000 Post season
4 games played
cmp 35
att 73
cmp% 47.9
YDS 590
avg 8.08
TD 3
INT 1

granted that Ravens had a champion D, special teams and running game
but still crappy QB can still win a SB if the other parts are there.

So if the Chiefs have a historically good defense - probably the second-best unit all-time - they have a shot? :thumb:

Sweet! Good thing they brought in a defensive-minded coach... wait a second...

you have to find hope where you can:D

he's posted 70's QBR the past few seasons -- the WCO is known to sweeten the QBR. Jamaal & Bowe are YAC guys and should actually excel in this scheme. Smiff never had this compliment of playmakers before. I think those are good reasons to expect a peak season from him. we shall see.

Wins

throwing for 3,500 yards doesn't mean anything anymore...it would put him 18th between Rivers and Fitzpatrick

but throwing for 3,500 yards with such a terrible completion percentage is 'almost' impossible...noticeable exceptions: Luck and Freeman (but both were over 4,000)

and i have no idea why we'd want smith tutoring anyone..."Hey, kid, when in doubt take a sack...and always look at the rush so that you can't make a play down field"

i remember when 3500 yards was a good season for QBs.

Giving up the second 2nd round pick means they would have gone at least 8-8, which is a damn good season following the 2-14 abortion of last year, so I'd say it's worth it. The numbers do not however warrant an extension.

Let him play next year and then decide whether or not to extend him.

Just the 25-10 alone would probably mean his QBR was higher than 80

So I would say yes

But really it depends on W-L

The thing is if we hurt ourselves for two years with 8-8 type seasons then it is just a waste of time

Maybe but much depends on how the rest of the team plays too. If kc has a sick defense, like the #1 defense in the NFL, then these type of stats might actually mean a playoff spot. As for extending Smith, I doubt it.

So they'd have given up 2 seconds for a "crappy QB", to borrow your turn of phrase?

I have to disagree with you. Again, Alex can go deep...even with his weakend shoulder. At the end of the day, he just has to do it enough to keep the defenses honest. I still expect him to be a grind it out kind of player.

I guess you'll have to laugh at me because I believe Alex will hit that 3500-4000 range with a traditional QBR that looks something like what he had in 2011. Just to be clear that is 91+.

If we run the same offense that Reid ran with McNabb, 3,500 yards is pretty good. He only went over that like three times and he never got 4,000 yards. We aren't going to run the downfield offense that Vick ran with Jackson and Maclin. We are going to throw it to Charles like McNabb threw it to Westbrook. Alex's roles will be much more like McNabb's than Vick's.

quite possible.

56% completion for an "accurate" QB like Smith, let alone any QB, would be a disaster. For comparison, Matt Cassel completed 58% of his passes last year.

Smith needs to be in the low 60's for completion percentage, especially in a Reid offense. Based on what Vick and McNabb have done in Reid's system, you'd be looking at 3100 yards, 23 TD's, 11 INT's, 60% completion, and considering Vick and McNabb's injury history in Philly, plus Smith's own history, and Cassel's recent history behind this line, you're probably looking at 14 starts max for Smith.

To be worth what we paid, the bottom line will come down to did he help us win and get into the playoffs and play well in the playoffs. But if we are just basing it on stats, you'd be looking for something similar to Gannon's first year in Oakland, which is similar to the numbers above except Gannon had 700 more passing yards. Based on history and the fact that we don't have Tim Brown on this roster, I don't think hitting 3800 yards has any chance of happening...

When you trade multiple high picks for a qb the expectation should be that you are building around that guy for championships (yes, multiple). If you are not building for championships, then the picks were wasted. Until Alex Smith becomes an integral part of championship teams, I will view that trade as a collossal failure.

Yeah. Because Kaep takes so many sacks right? Stop with the non sense. Some times the best teachers, weren't good players.
Do you think that the Texans feel they got a colossal failure in Matt Schaub?

That's the same price the Texans gave up to get him.

The picks compensation is so over blown. Half of this board, doesn't even know who was drafted at 34 this year.......

McNabb missed a lot of games. If you project his production over full seasons for his last 6 years in Philly it looks like this:

2004: 4100 yards, 33 TD (actual, 15 starts: 3875, 31)
2005: 4450 yards, 28 TD (actual, 9 starts: 2507, 16)
2006: 4200 yards, 29 TD (actual, 10 starts: 2647, 18)
2007: 3800 yards, 21 TD (actual, 14 starts: 3324, 19)
2008: 3916 yards, 23 TD (full season)
2009: 4050 yards, 25 TD (actual, 14 starts: 3553, 22 TD)

Yay.

Just to add to this, another approach would be to look at total Philly QB production for those years (not just McNabb...):

2004 (McNabb, Detmer, Blake): 4200 yards, 32 TD
2005 (McNabb, McMahon, Detmer): 3900 yards, 21 TD
2006 (McNabb, Garcia, Feeley): 4300 yards, 31 TD
2007 (McNabb, Feeley): 4000 yards, 24 TD
2008 (McNabb, Kolb): 4050 yards, 23 TD
2009 (McNabb, Kolb, Vick (briefly)): 4350 yards, 27 TD

Good point. I would expect Smith to be like 2003-2004 McNabb. He started 31games in those two years and 3500+ yards for Smith is about right imo. He's not McNabb but, it will be a very similar offense to 2003-2004.

Yep, good post. Now check out the RBs receiving production for the earlier years (2004-2007) if you have time.

I think we're all well aware of that, and expect Charles (and I believe Cyrus Gray moreso than Davis at this point) to touch the ball about 11 billion times this year.

However....in 2009 DeSean Jackson had 1150 yards, Brent Celek was just shy of 1000 and Jeremy Maclin added another 750.

Yep, that is true but, what I am saying is that's not the same offense I am talking about. By that point they had two competent speed WRs and a very good slot WR.

Reid plays to the team's strengths.

Can you please tell me how the playcalling changed from those 2 QBs, with specifically detailing the amount of vertical concepts per play as well as designed throws to RBs(1st prog) and those that were checkdowns?


You really just don't know what you're talking about, do you? Do you think Andy Reid came up with an entire new offense; threw everything out the window that had worked previously? Really? Because that's hilarious to me.

Again, please tell me how the number of vertical concepts called per game changed when they drafted Jackson/Maclin as opposed to previous years.


Put a number on it.

Good post. Solid research.

Remind me never to talk specifics of an offensive or defensive scheme on this board unless I have my ducks in a row. You're all over it.

With that said, even if he was right conceptually, getting the data to support his comments would be burdensome at best.

Agreed. However, if you're going to make claims like that, especially after you thought that "over ed" was a made up front and you've proven that you have literally no detailed knowledge, then I'm probably going to bust your balls.

I have no problems with speculation or generalizing, as long as people make it known. I do it all the time. If you're going to make bold claims, you better have some tangible evidence to support them.

Good info. This tells us exactly what we should be looking for.

Yep, LOL. I'm not really into researching stats. I'm just speaking hypothetically mostly. I don't pretend to be an expert by any means. I am just going by memory and I see some similarities in our current offense to that old Eagles offense.

The title of this thread includes the words "what if" right? It seems like half the threads here are hypothetical and then people want to rip into you for saying something hypothetical in them. This place is a riot! LOL

That doesn't sound hypothetical at all.