That sinking feeling for the 49ers
By Gregg Easterbrook | ESPN.com
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Psssssttttttttttt. That's the sound of the air leaking out of the 49ers' balloon.
A few months ago, a mere three yards shy of Super Bowl victory, San Francisco was just pounded on its home field by the Indianapolis Colts. Not only did Andrew Luck defeat his former college coach, Jim Harbaugh, but also Harbaugh's former college assistant Pep Hamilton, now offensive coordinator at Indianapolis, composed a game plan that looked an awful lot like the Stanford offense.
"Awful" suddenly applies to the Niners. They've lost their last two outings by a combined 56-10. Since taking the field for the Super Bowl, San Francisco is 1-3. Sunday, the vaunted San Francisco defense was hapless; Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis repeatedly missed tackles. The Colts' defense -- 26th-ranked in 2012 -- dominated the Niners' vaunted offensive line. The San Francisco zone read that was unstoppable during the playoffs has turned unstartable. Star Aldon Smith is in limbo and star Frank Gore is in meltdown.
Colts leading 13-7 in the third quarter, on first down Colin Kaepernick was dropped for a loss trying to run the zone read. A second down rush was stuffed. On third-and-13, veteran wide receiver Anquan Boldin made the rookie error of pulling up his pattern short of the first-down marker. Now it's fourth-and-4 on the Indianapolis 45 -- and Harbaugh/West sends in the punt unit! An offense that gained 468 yards in the Super Bowl punts on fourth-and-4 in opposition territory while trailing in the second half at home. Harbaugh/West might as well have left for a craft-brewed ale along the wharf. By the time San Francisco entered Indianapolis territory again, the score was 27-7 and the clock nearly expired.
Then there's the matter of the naked quarterback. Kaepernick has thrown for three touchdowns and four interceptions, with a 72.5 passer rating. At Kansas City, Alex Smith, sent packing to grant Kaepernick the San Francisco job, has four touchdowns, no interceptions and a 92.1 rating. Discounting for the 2012 San Francisco-St. Louis tie in which both played, since the beginning of last season, Smith is 9-2 as a starter, Kaepernick is 8-5. All of Kaepernick's starts are with a team many touts view as having the league's best roster. Three of Smith's starts have come with the worst team of 2012.
In August, this column supposed "Smith is the real deal. At the Niners, Harbaugh/West was so eager to showcase Kaepernick that Smith fell out of favor despite performing well. In Smith's final 2012 appearances with San Francisco, he combined to go 25 for 27 with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. Should Smith play well in Andy Reid's pass-wacky system, this trade will be viewed as the year's steal."
Kaepernick is talented, but his emergence was tied to NFL defenders not knowing how to handle the zone read. Now they do, as Robert Griffin III has found. If the zone read recedes into the collector's case as just a flavor of the month, teams will go back to emphasizing the kind of tried-and-true passing tactics epitomized by Tom Brady, the Manning brothers, Drew Brees -- and Alex Smith. By season's end, will Niners faithful be wishing their team had kept Smith?
Speaking of whom, the Kansas City Chiefs, who had two victories in 2012, already have three in 2013. Perhaps they will go worst-to-first.
Last season the Colts and Vikings jumped from the cellar to the playoffs. In the NFL's format, with just four clubs per division, each member team has a 25 percent chance of finishing first, plus a bonus chance of a wild card. Eight divisions, each with four teams with a one-in-four shot at the title -- if victories were distributed by chance, each season there would be two worst-to-first outcomes. Turns out that in the last decade, there have been an average of 2.5 playoffs teams that were cellar-dwellers the previous year. So Kansas City's chances are good.
