What the Chiefs realistically do in the Draft/FA
 

While we all have our personal favorites for the upcoming draft (*cough*Gabe Jackson*cough*), this is how I see everything shaking down from an objective viewpoint:

1. WR
2. OLB
3. OL

Everyone around here is currently salivating over Notre Dame's Tuitt or Minnesota's Hageman, but a month ago, no one around here even knew who this guy was.

I think it really depends on what they do with Tyson Jackson.

Jackson was better than either Tuitt or Hageman at the same level and has increased his on the field production for the Chiefs every year. I think he's hitting his stride and is at the front end of his NFL prime area.

I think Jackson understands his value on the market as well as to the team and will most likely agree to a 3 to 4 million per for 3/4 years - similar to Mike DeVito's contract.

I'm not really that interested in letting Jackson walk after year four and first year in Sutton's system while showing improvements in his game every year and then drafting a rookie and thinking that he'll be even close to what Jackson gives you right now as well as spending yet another first round pick on a two down player versus getting a starting wide receiver.

That being said, Reid saw a defensive line player drafted with the Eagles first pick in the draft seven times (out of 14 years).

Breakdown of Reid's first picks as head coach with the Eagles:

7 DL
2 QBs
2 WRs
2 OL
1 CB

However, that being said, it looks like John Dorsey is the guy who's really putting the work into the player evaluations in terms of the draft and free agency and Reid is primarily focused on coaching.

Dorsey, as Director of College Scouting and Director of Football Operations for the Packers from 2000 to 2012, saw the following positions selected in the first round for Green Bay:

3 DL
3 LB
2 OL
2 WR
1 CB
1 TE
1 QB

Basically, it looks like Reid, as a former OL player and OL coach, has respect for the DL and favors them in his drafts while Dorsey (a former NFL LB) seems to stick with his big board.

And based on the 2013 draft, the two seem to have went with BPA and biggest position of need, after making sure that they had all of their ducks in a row through free agency prior to the draft. (Alex Smith, Sean Smith, Anthony Fasano, Anthony Sherman, Mike DeVito, Akeem Jordan, Geoff Schwartz, etc.)

I think that's what they do for the 2014 season. I think you'll see a concerted effort to:

1. Sign a free agent safety

- I don't see a scenario where Husain Abdullah won't get a decent offer from the Chiefs. The guy played well to finish out the season and was consisten all year on special teams. They'll most likely look at the Eagles Nate Allen or the Packers Morgan Burnett due to Reid and Dorsey's experience/familiarity with both players, though a guy like the Bears' Major Wright would be considered. They also obviously liked Brad McDougald and will likely try to get him back for 2014.

2. Sign a wide receiver in free agency.

- They tried to address this all season long, but it never really got handled by guys like Donnie Avery, Chad Hall, etc. I'm surprised that Reid didn't have an aneurysm watching ball after ball get dropped. Riley Cooper is coming off his best year and would probably welcome a change in the environment after this past season. He knows Reid's system and has good hands and runs solid routes. Would be a solid #2 opposite Bowe.

3. Re-sign Tyson Jackson.

- See above.

4. Draft an explosive playmaker with the first pick.

- IMO, this pick is Odell Beckham. With McCluster set to test the free agent market after his best season, the Chiefs are going to need a guy to replace him as a WR option as well as a return specialist. There is nobody better in the draft for this than the 2013 Paul Hornung Award winner Beckham.

5. Draft for depth at the OLB, OL, CB, WR, RB positions with the rest of the picks.

And there is your 2014 off-season in a nutshell.

Tyson Jackson is just a guy.

There is absolutely nothing that has done that warrants any need to re-sign him.

Jackson is a run stopper

Those other two could be pass rushers. Easy choice

What's with this stuff with people trying to get McDougald back in their "mock offseasons"? He signed with the Bucs and is under contract next season. It's not like they can just go out and sign him. He would have to get cut first

Tyson Jackson was as good a, if not better, pass defender than either Hageman or Tuitt at the same level. And they are going to be drafted as a two down five tech DE.

He's established himself as one of the better run defenders in the NFL and he's coming off his best sack totals in his four seasons.

Tuitt and Hageman would be in the exact same boat as Jackson was four seasons ago. Projects who are going to struggle against NFL OL's.

The position and system itself requires "just a guy" who is adapt at stopping the run. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Jackson qualifies.

As well, there is the potential, if Sutton chooses to do so, of running a 46 a bit more with Powe at NT and shifting Poe out to the DE.

Either that or run a 34 like the Ravens did with Kelley (Powe) at NT and Ngata (Poe) at DE.

As of right now, I don't see that either Hageman (who I like a lot, btw) or Tuitt offer any substantial ceiling over what you are currently getting with Jackson - at least for the position/system.

http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/__...ac04d468c4.jpg

McDougald is signed with the Bucs for $415,000 for the 2014 season and is an exclusive rights free agent in 2015.

Whelp...there you go.

Poopers. I liked the guy.

At the same level, no. Those two guys profile differently than Jackson. He doesn't excel at rushing the passer, and has to come off the field in nickel and dime sets. Why pay for that? Hageman would be a 3 down player at de

Jackson is too one dimensional to give a very big contract to right now. We need versatility up there

Maybe Lovie sees him as a poor fit for teh C2 but I would say he atleast makes it to camp. I think folks were thinking he never signed a futures contract with the bucs but I think he did before Dominik was canned

Plus sac, I'm just a dl junkie and I think Hageman might be the best overall athlete in the entire draft

As I've looked at the offseason, I think it's increasingly likely that Jackson ends up getting re-signed.

I think it's because the options out there are really, really hard for 3-4 DEs. Mike Neal is the only guy in free agency I see them signing because of the Packers connection, but Neal's only going to stem the tide in talent you lose with Jackson. Ideally, you want to upgrade.

Where on earth do you upgrade? Jackson's continued development is really your only chance. And like Sac, I think he can be resigned relatively easily.

Tuitt's going to give you more of a push, but it's going to take him a couple years to get to where you want him to be. And he's going to get raped against the run for at least a year or so. Tuitt's an investment that *I* would make, hell I'd start Allen Bailey while Tuitt develops if I have to. But I can't help but think that's unlikely at this point.

Hageman truly is the only true upgrade we have for 2014, and the Chiefs don't really have the ammunition to trade up and get him.

I'm gonna start the internet push to get Hageman to fall.

It's gonna happen.

After watching more of him, holy balls. He might be the next Jj watt

Imagine for a sec we took Richardson last year and Hageman fell to is this year.

Yeah that's a ton of resources in your dl, but holy shit.

Hageman-Poe-Richardson playing all 3 downs?

I agree on Hageman. And I think Sac's underrating him.

Hageman his rookie year gives you more push than Jackson, but you'll lose some juice against the run in 2014. But Hageman projects to All Pro caliber 3-4 DE in the near future. I think you have to pull that trigger if he's there.

I'm actually in full support of drafting Louis Nix, should he last, and sliding Poe over to DE.

There are options I'd prefer over that, but that's an idea I could totally get behind.

Hagemans just a nasty mother too.

This team needs:

-At least 2 new WR's that are fast and can get separation and get it fast. Think of Manning against us in Denver. We need to have that against good D's next year. Quick 3 step drops to WR's that can get open fast.

-DE that can actually create havoc in the backfield

-1 more athletic TE. This can be in the mid rounds or FA.

-Depth. Need OL, OLB and DB depth

DB depth? You mean starters?

Besides Berry...our secondary starters are overrated, yes that includes Flowers.

I'm just going to keep preaching this, Gilbert, Dennard, or Pryor is a must in that first round if they last.

I really don't understand your obsession with the 46.

Sorter, what are your thoughts on Hageman?

I don't think there's any way e falls to is though

I agree.

It's based primarily on Berry, Houston, Hali and Poe.

Berry is already playing the "Plank" safety position. He's exactly what the system calls for. Perfect for it.

And Sutton doesn't seem to believe in anything other than man press coverage from his corners.

Really, we are playing it currently when they go to a side overload with Houston and Hali on it - other than having the three DT's on the line, and both Powe and Poe have shown the ability to blow the OL up.

I think that the one thing that we really missed in it was the rangy free safety, and that's why the concept of signing Burnett, Allen or Wright is key as all three are a major upgrade to Lewis as it currently stands.

You realize there's a reason that alignment isn't used with high frequency anymore, right?

That's not true. It is more accurate in regards to sub packages, especially in the second half of the season.

- No, it's not. We've used a 46 this season. It isn't an overload.



This is the only part of your post that makes sense.

Sac, here's the 46 out of the Jets PB.

http://i.imgur.com/gn1Ao0O.png

http://i.imgur.com/WPyHoC9.png

Not an overload. Additionally, you'll (hopefully) be able to see why this alignment isn't used against most of the alignments used in the NFL currently. That isn't even taking into account personnel groupings + additional variables that would dictate when you would use this alignment based on game planning (down and distance, run/pass %s, and location OTF).

I hope Brandin Cooks tests really small and falls into the 3rd round. I think he could be a Percy Harvin type player.

And after watching the first half of this Broncos game, someone plant some drugs on Hageman so he falls to us.

Actually, it's being used specifically for/against the spread by a number of college teams.

Oregon has employed it since 2009 with defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti throwing some modernizations at it. And it's been very effective as the Ducks defense has been highly ranked since it's implimentation.

Depends on the variants used. The Bears used an overload with regularity in their base 46.

See above.

It lost favor due to the implementation of the West Coast offenses, but is starting to see a resurgence of late. Steelers, Jets and Ravens have run it off and on (some of the better defenses of the past decade in the NFL) and it's seeing more and more usage in the college ranks of late.

Oregon has employed it since 2009, and it's been very effective as the Ducks defense has been highly ranked since it's implimentation.

Depends on the variants used. The Bears used an overload with regularity in their base 46. And, obviously, teams will vary the base set as they do with any defense. I'm not saying that the overload is mandated by the 46 and I am sure that you are astute enough to understand this.

And I certainly know we've run it some this season. What I was suggesting is that we aren't seeing the bigger defensive line packages used by the Bears in the 80's and the Ravens recently.

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/27...ear_46_PIC.jpg

ROFL

ROFL.


None of those teams use it as their primary front with base or sub personnel.


You can continue thinking it's the best alignment eva though. You're entitled to that.

I think you are stuck in a world of absolutes.

I understand that the teams employing it don't run it as a base or as a majority front.

And I don't think it's the best alignment ever.

However, I do feel that the Chiefs current defensive personnel fit the 46 system extremely well and I'd like to see more of it's implementation, particularly the jumbo alignment that the Beavers currently run. Their defense has been superb since they've put it in as their base system and I think it can be very effective in the current pro environment.