What matters most when drafting a WR?
 

When it comes to the top 40 WRs in yardage in the NFL for 2013, you'll notice some striking statistics.

Statistic 1: Size Matters
Of the top 10 WRs in Yardage (and TDs scored), 7 are at least 6'3" and 8 are 6'0" or more. Of the top 40 WRs, 35% are 6'3" or taller. A staggering 75% are 6'0" or taller.

Here is the breakdown:
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="127"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1170;width:24pt" width="32"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1243;width:26pt" width="34"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:987;width:20pt" width="27"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1243;width:26pt" width="34"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:11.25pt" height="15"> <td class="xl65" style="height:11.25pt;width:24pt" height="15" width="32">Ht</td> <td class="xl65" style="width:26pt" width="34">Ht#</td> <td class="xl65" style="width:20pt" width="27">Ht%</td> <td class="xl65" style="width:26pt" width="34">Ht+%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:11.25pt" height="15"> <td class="xl65" style="height:11.25pt" height="15">6'3" +</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">14</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">35%</td> <td class="xl65">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:11.25pt" height="15"> <td class="xl65" style="height:11.25pt" height="15">6'2"</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">4</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">10%</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">45%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:11.25pt" height="15"> <td class="xl65" style="height:11.25pt" height="15">6'1"</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">5</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">13%</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">58%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:11.25pt" height="15"> <td class="xl65" style="height:11.25pt" height="15">6'0"</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">7</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">18%</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">75%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:11.25pt" height="15"> <td class="xl65" style="height:11.25pt" height="15">5'11"</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">3%</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">78%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:11.25pt" height="15"> <td class="xl65" style="height:11.25pt" height="15">5'10"</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">6</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">15%</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">93%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:11.25pt" height="15"> <td class="xl65" style="height:11.25pt" height="15">5'9"</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">3</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">8%</td> <td class="xl67" align="right">100%</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Statistic 2: Timed Running Events Don't Matter As Much As You Think

The only real logical conclusion is that if you don't hit NFL target measures, you probably won't find yourself in the top 40 WRs in the NFL. Here's a bit of a look at the NFL's top 4 running measurements.

Exhibit A: 40-Yard Dash

I shouldn't say it doesn't matter, but what doesn't matter to NFL folks is whether or not you run a 4.35 or a 4.55. Just don't run above a 4.55 or your chances go down (there are some caveats).

If you scan the top 40, you'll notice 40 times vary wildly. If you want to draw any conclusion, most NFL top WRs run at least a 4.55. Very few of the NFL's top WRs run in the 4.4s, let alone the 4.3's. Fixating on speed is bad practice, they aren't running track.

If you've ever seen the NFL's targets, you'll see that 4.55 is actually the speed the NFL looks for a WR to possess, and the data backs it up.

Exhibit B: 10-Yard Split

You'll notice that, as a group, most WRs in the top 40 runs somewhere between a 1.55 and 1.60 10-yards split. There isn't much variation between a 4.4 guy and a 4.5 guy in this stat. Coincidentally, the NFL target is 1.60 seconds. Much like the 40-yard dash, so long as you aren't too far away from target, you're good to go.

Exhibit C: 3-Cone

This is probably getting old by now, but once again the top 40 NFL WRs pretty well follow the target of 7.00 seconds in the 3-cone. Don't run that fast? Well, your chances shrink considerably at being a #1 or even a #2 in the NFL.

Exhibit D: 20-Yard Shuttle

The shuttle might just be the most forgiving statistic aside from the 40 yard dash in all the timed events. The NFL looks for a 4.15 in the "short" shuttle. As you can see by the data, most NFL receivers in the top 40 run somewhere in the range of 4.00 to 4.30 and without too much statistical analysis it appears they trend towards the higher half of that range.

Statistic 3: Well, its not really a statistic at all. Here is what I'll say about NFL WRs towards the top. They all tend to run rather precise routes, they all can run the entirety of the route tree, and they all tend to be hands catchers.

So there you have it, bigger is usually better, benchmark speeds are all you need, guys need to run good routes, and you need a guy that catches with his hands.

When I see a guy like Matthews, I grin ear to ear, because he fits every criteria to be very good. In fact, I loved Keenan Allen last year and I see them as VERY similar players.

I really like Mathews. More than anything because of his drive. You can't measure drive in a 40. That is what made Jerry Rice the goat. There were always more talented WRs out there.

But if you're into metrics, you might get a kick out of this:

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cf...metric-allstar

This is a good start... but I want to scan the top 40 WR's to look for more patterns. It would be cool to have a full profile of your target WR. Are there any key metrics, aside from height, that indicate a high likelihood of success?

Are there certain metrics, when paired with other metrics that indicate a high likelihood of success? (X Vert + Y Height +Z Hand size = Top 10 WR?)

Hand Length?
Wingspan?
Vertical?
Wonderlic Score?
Drop % in College?

Nice to see you around here, crow.

Really good stuff.

Nice post, kccrow.

Touchdown Jesus: My not-so-bold prediction on what the Chiefs are going to do.

1. Sign Golden Tate as their #2 WR.
2. Keep Jenkins.
3. Drop Avery.
4. Draft a WR in the later rounds.
5. Draft board will look like this when the 23rd pick comes up. (Assuming many, many things. Including that they don't trade down/up; or land a top flight FS in FA.)

----- a. Calvin Pryor
----- b. Kona Ealy
----- c. Louis Nix
----- d. Ryan Shazier

I'll puke if we draft a NT or 3-4 DE in the 1st. But yeah, I really like Matthews as well, I think he might sneak into the first but will definitely be gone at the top to middle of the 2nd. He has the drive and work ethic to become great, just needs a bit of NFL coaching to really put everything together on the field on a more consistent basis. I also really like him because he can play any WR position on the field and would do great starting in the slot and eventually work his way to the outside.

I'd say the #1 thing is route-running.

Speed and size can help with you with that, but the chess match of route-running is really what gets a WR open.

For me it has to be hands. Everything else is great but if you can't catch you can't "receive."

Wouldn't be my first choice either, but Reid seems to like the big boys in the first round.

Avery has terrible hands but can run routes.

Baldwin has amazing hands but can't run routes.

Which one would you rather have.

I want a receiver that can get separation, whether that's with speed or size. Big receivers aren't worth dick if they can't get away from the DB (See Baldwin, Jon) and small, quick receivers aren't worth dick i they can't run a route or run themselves out of the soft spot in the zone.

Quickness in and out of cuts and body control seem to be the biggest indicators to me.

This team should be targeting both types of WRs.

I read a lot of training camp reports about Baldwin struggling with drops AND seperation. He also had seven drops in games. It wasn't just the route running. It was also the hands. Most of all it was his poor release. I don't think you can really coach release. We just need a guy who can move the chains. A possession receiver if you will. We rreally haven't had that since Gonzalez left town. After the last few years I value hands above all else. I am tired of the drops.

"A db is just a receiver that cant catch"

Jace Amaro. Problem solved.

Welp, you gotta take the good with the bad. :) kccrow is here and now so is mugsy who's next mongo?

I might offset both of them, so call it a wash :P

I did not notice a correlation between hand size and success, except for that 9" seems to be the minimum. I'll look into these over the weekend when I get some time though, good suggestions.

No offense to you Jake, but articles like this just make me think of throwing crap at the wall until you find a turd that sticks. Heck, I'm sure I could add a bunch of combine numbers together, divide by 973, and end up with some construed statistic that favors my presentation. In the end, the reality is that you have to compare a player against a time-tested standard, which is exactly what NFL execs actually do. If a player fails to meet the standard in any one area, all is not lost, but failure to hit several of the standards usually means that player will find it difficult to compete. Then you have the tape portion of it. Not only does a player have to meet the predefined standards, but they also have to perform, according to the requirements of the position, on the football field. Donte Moncrief is a really nice player, but there is one thing that really pops at me with him and that is how he catches the football. Moncrief is a body catcher. Buyer beware, but the risk could end in a huge reward.

Blackbob is officially (disclaimer: OldSchool might be Blackbob as well) back! Mugsy was his handle on the Coalition. LMAO










Bummer he'll be banned in about 15 minutes.

crow would make a heck of an addition to the CP mock.

The most important statistic for a WR is having Peyton Manning throwing you the ****ing ball !

I think it's going to be Jordan Matthews.

That's where I can see Dorsey making an "upside" pick due to Matthews' superior measurables and work ethic. Beckham's value is also in his ability to return kicks though, so he could just as easily be the pick. Either guy will be fine starting from the slot in their rookie year and eventually transitioning out to the perimeter.

if ya'll need a warm body to fill a spot, let me know. :)

Calvin and Evans. Interesting.

Edit: wrong thread. McShay mock

I think Beckham is probably the #3 WR on a lot of boards now. Gone before #23.

I can't see us taking a TE in the first round. We have three TEs that are in the mold of what Reid had in Philadelphia. I think it's more about Reid's offense than it is about finding Alex Smith another Vernon Davis. Plus, the wide receivers that will be there at #23 have a lot more talent.

Yeah, doesn't have the red flags that Lee had last season and he is bigger than Cooks. People also see him as a better play maker than Cooks. My rankings would go:

1. Watkins
2. Evans
3. Beckham
4. Lee
t-5. Matthews
t-5. Cooks

That's destined to fail. It literally NEVER works.

LOL, good to see you man. I'm thinking more will be coming soon. Crow would be a good addition to the mock. He knows what he's talking about.

I am thinking about trying to run the mock draft contest we used to run at CC if I can get enough interest. Mock the first round with a primary and alternate pick and then make the Chiefs picks.

If we had another threat say just a more dangerous Avery and a mediocre pass catching tight end wouldn't that allow bows to be our possession guy plus some here and there?

I think the #1 thing has to be hands. Hands matter when you're wide open, in traffic, double covered, going deep, over the middle, on out routes... all the time. They always matter.

#2 for me would be separation. Some guys have it, some don't. Some guys are quick in cone drills, but have no instinct on separating from their man. They just can't read another body in motion and anticipate/set up their moves.

Yup, see Anquan Boldin, Fitzgerald, Johnson, Jenkins, Marshall, Colston, Moss, Green, Rice, etc. Vs every great athlete to have come into the game but flopped, why? Their hands and lack of concentration at the point of the catch. That's what really separates the great ones from the guys who are just athletes trying to play football.

To crush their enemies, see them driven before them and hear the lamentations of their coaches and fans.