Sac's 2014 NFL Mock
 

First Round:

1. Houston Texans: Jadeveon Clowney, DE; South Carolina
- You want them to draft a QB because of 2013, but remember that they were the best team in the AFC in 2012 with the same QB. And you don't pass on a guy with Clowney's size/speed/production ratios, especially for a guy like Blake Bortles. That's how GM's get fired.

2. St. Louis Rams: Sammy Watkins, WR; Clemson
- The Rams seem like they are on the verge. In 2012, they had the best record in their division, have a great defense and spent a first rounder on dynamic Tavon Austin last draft. However, he's not a true #1 WR, but Watkins is and has the potential to be a transcendent player at that position.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles, QB; UCF
- Prototype QB for a QBless team. Not much else to say.

4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Football, QB; Texas A&M
- The Browns need an infusion of "Boom!," of "Wow!," a certain je ne sais quoi that only comes with the QB position, and nobody fits that bill better than Johnny Football. Dynamic, electric and mercurial, Manziel will immediately give relevance to the Browns.

5. Oakland Raiders: Teddy Bridgewater, QB; Louisville
- The Raiders QB situation is a mess. Pryor looks really good one week and then horrible the next forcing a benching. Bridgewater is the most consistent and productive QB in this draft. I'm not completely sold on him as a pro, but the Raiders don't have many other options at this point.

6. Atlanta Falcons: Greg Robinson, OT; Auburn
- The Falcons couldn't have had this turn out any better. Matt Ryan does a jig as Robinson is an absolute force at the tackle position.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jake Matthews, OT; Texas A&M
- Possibly the most sound football player in this draft with a lot of upside and a very high floor. The Bucs need an anchor on the offensive line and Matthews has the potential to be a high level player at all five positions.

8. Minnesota Vikings: Aaron Donald, DT; Pittsburgh
- The Vikings could go in any direction and improve their team, but their defensive line is in desperate need of a reconstruction. Kevin Williams is on his last NFL legs and there isn't anybody else who scares you. Donald has had one of the best off-season's of any prospect, destroying everyone at the Senior Bowl and then having a freakishly great Combine.

9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans, WR; Texas A&M
- The Bills need to get 2012 first round pick Manuel some help beyond Stevie "Cheap Shot" Johnson. Evans has the chance to be a Marques Colston type of player.

10. Detroit Lions: Darqueze Dennard, CB; Michigan State
- As in every year, the Lions secondary is a mess. They are most likely going to lose Louis Delmas to free agency and the rest are just guys. Dennard is the best secondary player in this draft and will be an immediate and better upgrade than the linebackers available.

11. Tennessee Titans: CJ Mosley, LB; Alabama
- The Titans will most likely be switching to a 34 under new DC Wisenhunt and they'll need an immediate upgrade at a number of defensive positions. Mosley is already versed in the alignment as the Tide's Dick Butkus Award Winner.

12. New York Giants: Khalil Mack, LB; Buffalo
- An easy pick if Mack makes it this far.

13. St. Louis Rams: Taylor Lewan, OT; Michigan
- The Rams secure the right side of their line and hopefully the rest of Bradford's time in the league with the selection of the talented and very nasty Lewan.

14. Chicago Bears: Timmy Jernigan, DT; Florida State
- The best three tech DT available, which the Bears desperately need.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Louis Nix, DT; Notre Dame
- The Steelers weren't very good against the run in 2013. Nix was the lynch pin for the Domers defense and anchors well.

16. Dallas Cowboys: Calvin Pryor, S; Louisville
- With the top DT's off the board, Dallas addresses it's second biggest position of need with the selection of Pryor.

17. Baltimore Ravens: Marquis Lee, WR; USC
- I think it's a photo finish type of selection between Lee, Beckham and Cooks for the next WR selected after Mike Evans. Lee gets the nod here for his glorious 2012 season and the difficulties he faced in 2013 while still putting up very respectable numbers.

18. New York Jets: Odell Beckham, WR; LSU
- The Jets are 98% likely to pick the best receiver on their board with this selection and it's nearly sixes between Beckham and Cooks. Beckham gets the nod here.

19. Miami Dolphins: Zach Martin, OL; Notre Dame
- Martin can play either tackle or guard spot and, like anyone didn't notice, the Dolphins might need a tackle or guard spot filled.

20. Arizona Cardinals: Anthony Barr, LB; UCLA
- Last year I would have said that the Cardinals needed to draft someone to rush the passer because free agent acquisition John Abraham was 34 years old...yeah, so the guy goes out and does what he always does and gets double digit sacks. But this year, he's 35 and the Cardinals need someone to rush the passer.

21. Green Bay Packers: Eric Ebron, TE; North Carolina
- Rogers will be discount doubling checking people in the balls if this isn't the pick. A better fit you could not find at this point for the Packers.

22. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Gilbert, CB; Oklahoma State
- That Gilbert is still on the board shows you how insanely deep this draft is.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Ha-Ha Clinton Dix, S; Alabama
- It's tempting to take Brandin Cooks here, but every Chiefs fan who watched even partial games in 2013 realizes that there was a really, really big hole on the defensive side of the ball that ended up costing the Chiefs a number of games. Dix is what you could consider a shut down back half safety. He plays the deep ball as well as anyone and has ridiculous range. The Chiefs can still get a top flight receiver in Round 3.

24. Cincinnati Bengals: David Yankey, OL; Stanford
- Bengals have a serious need at offensive guard and Yankey is coming off a First Team All-American season.

25. San Diego Chargers: Kyle Fuller, CB; Virginia Tech
- I think he's better than Roby and bigger than Verrett the Chargers need to upgrade their outside pass defense.

26. Cleveland Browns: Brandin Cooks, WR; Oregon State
- While Gordon is one of the best young WR's in the league, he's one stupid act away from getting a massive hit from the Banhammer. Cooks gives new QB Johnny Football another option and his pogo stick like legs will work well with the free lance stylings of Mr. Manziel.

27. New Orleans Saints: Jason Verrett, CB; TCU
- Saints are happy that a player the talent of Verrett is still on the board as CB is a big need in the Big Easy.

28. Carolina Panthers: Dee Ford, DE; Auburn
- Yeah, the Panthers are in a bad way for an offensive tackle after Jordan Gross surprised them with his retirement a couple of weeks ago, but you don't ever reach for need lest you end up in a Jon Baldwin situation. They do have an almost as big need at DE and Ford is a major talent that should have been long gone at this point in the draft.

29. New England Patriots: Ra'Shede Hageman, DT; Minnesota
- The Pats have a need at both DT and DE and the athletic but enormous Hageman has the potential to play both spots.

30. San Francisco 49ers: Kelvin Benjamin, WR; Florida State
- The Niners had one of the worst passing offenses in the league in 2013. Yet they still came a tipped ball from their second Super Bowl in as many years. However, that fact is not to be ignored and they'll try to get Kaepernick more weapons in an effort to bolster those anemic passing numbers.

31. Denver Broncos: Kony Ealy, DE; Missouri
- The Doncs are probably still having nightmares of pass rushers in blue and green and as it's a copy cat league, they go after one of the top rush ends in this draft in Ealy, who will bookend nicely with Wolfe.

32. Seattle Seahawks: Stephen Tuitt, DT; Notre Dame
- What do you do when you are the Super Bowl champs and you've just jettisoned your starting DE because of a bloated salary? Well, you go out and get a guy who's got even more potential, that's what.

I'd rather give Cummings a shot than draft Dix. No thanks to Bama DBs; we don't need another flop in the 1st.

Thoughts:

1. Clowney 1st overall? el oh el.

2. I always want to mock Watkins to the Rams, too, but they gotta keep Bradford upright, and Jake Long won't be ready for the start of the 2014 season.

3. I flipflop between Manziel and Bridgewater as the best QBs in this draft. Bortles looks great, and throws great. But he's going to require far more work than either of those guys.

4. Mack falls waaaaaaaaaay too far. He doesn't get past Atlanta.

5. If the Titans are in fact changing defensive schemes, they should get an edge rusher (Barr) or a nose tackle (Nix).

6. As you alluded in the post, it's just not possible that Gilbert falls that far.

7. I like Clinton-Dix a lot as a FS in our scheme. I think he makes a ton of sense and I'd be happy with us taking him over Brandin Cooks or Dee Ford. However, if we do not sign a quality DE this offseason, I would be really upset if we pass on Hageman. Geez.

8. Really? The 49ers are going to take a big, physical WR, after already having Boldin and Baldwin on the roster?

Good first round mock. I don't mind disagreeing with a few of its moves since really weird things happen on draft day. But yeah, no way in hell does Mack fall that far.

http://imageshack.com/a/img138/2358/2w7.gif

reason why I hate Bama DBs:

Kirkpatrick - Can't push Pacman Jones out of a starting role.

Milliner - looked like puke

Barron - another crappy failure of a Bama DB.

Pretty much every Bama defender in the league right now is either just an average player or just completely sucks donkey.

The only one who is actually good is Marcell Dareus. Demeco Ryans is also a pretty good player. Neither of these guys play in the secondary. If recent history is anything to go by, Clinton Dix is going to suck just as badly no matter how good he seemed in college. Saban DBs just plain end up sucking at the next level.

Who I would take: Brandin Cooks

Who Reid/Dorsey would take: David Yankey

I would actually be pissed if they took Yankey. He's good but not 1st round good. At least not in my opinion. He spends way too much time on the ground.

Hageman at DE would make whoever we have playing FS better . . . he would make the whole secondary better.

Most of last year's problem on defense in the second half of the season was due to the lack of pressure up front.

No, most of the problem was that without reliable deep coverage over the top, our corners were forced to give a cushion and the better QBs and offenses were able to take advantage of that far too quickly for any pass rush to get there.

Love it.

So I take it you'd take Clinton-Dix as well.

Depends on how Dorsey views commings. I think we take a WR.

This is probably exactly how Pioli justified keeping Cassel.


Excellent work.

I like the Clinton-Dix pick. If they don't go that route, and Ebron is still there at #23, I'd go TE. Dude reminds me of a young Antonio Gates, virtually uncoverable and would make an immediate impact in the offense.

Dee Ford is not a 4-3 DE. And whomever said that Barron is a failure....is a monumental reerun.

Not a Dix fan. He is a very suspect tackler and is questionable in run support - an "ankle biter" if you will. He's a ball hawk for sure but, Kendrick Lewis might literally tackle better imo and that is not good.

Remember way back when, before 2012, when the Colts were running a 43 defensive front and had this guy playing defensive end?:

http://www.coltsgab.com/wp-content/u.../09/mathis.jpg

I think Ford's hope/upside is Mathis and his best position would be a 43 DE, at least initially, at the next level.

No freaking way. I had hopes for Lewis, but after the 2013 season, I'm positive that, at least after that season, there wasn't a worse tackler in the league.

And Dix does one thing exceptionally well - defends the deep ball. Sideline to sideline. He's got great range, and if you watched the Chiefs in 2013, it's the one thing that absolutely destroyed them nearly every week.

Dix has uncanny pass defense skills. He takes good angles, has very smooth feet and hips, and has the length to disrupt on deep throws.

There isn't a safety in this draft that offers you the complete package that Dix does, especially when you consider the defense that Sutton runs. The Chiefs have their front box guy in Berry. The missing piece is a guy just like Dix.

Why is Clowney at 1.1 funny?

Not necessarily, though I would be more torn about it than you, in that poisition I would take Hegeman.

I just don't agree with the post I responded to.

Man, the Texans just HAVE to take a QB, don't they? New coaches, new system, new era - all that stuff, right? That said, I get how they would be tempted by Clowney, especially going against Luck twice a season. Clowney + Watt = pure destruction.

New coaches mean new QBs. There are two elite QB prospects in this draft, and another very good one in Bortles. All three are different kinds of guys.

Whatever the new regime likes in QBs, they have their choice of it. Clowney is not going first overall.

He is a great ball hawk but he is not the complete package. Pryor is the complete package. Pryor is the most well rounded safety in this class and it's not even close imo. Fans complained more about Lewis missing tackles than they did blown coverage's. Ha Ha is not going to be much of an improvement in this area. With the way they use Berry in the box so much, that other safety damn sure better be able to tackle because he is going to be the last line of defense on almost every play. Lewis killed us last year. I don't want an ankle biter back there. I want a solid tackler at FS who can also play the pass.

Missed tackles are more obvious to fans, in general, so it is not surprising that most fans complain more about those.

Failing to provide help over the top is not as easily recognized, and fans, in general, are more inclined to blame corners who were expecting (or hoping might be a better descriptor, in Lewis' case) for help over the top that never showed.

Dix is an epic failure when it comes to tackling. I wouldn't draft him if you paid me to.

I'd argue that there are no elite QB's in this draft, but there is definitely an elite, generational talent at DE.

Like I said, you want to be the guy who takes Blake Bortles over Jadeveon Clowney?

That's the kind of shit that will haunt you for the rest of your life.

You'll be demonized for eternity.

Sac, this is something I agree with you on. I disagree with many that the QBs in this draft are can't miss, franchise-type, QBs. Clowney, on the other hand, is an absolute freak coming off the edge. There is Clowney in this draft, and then there is everyone else. There is absolutely no comparison. If I were Houston, I'd take Clowney without thinking about it and try to trade up from my 2nd rounder to get Derek Carr or Jimmy Garappolo. If I was going to take a QB at #1, I'd lean heavy towards Manziel, I think he's that Brett Favre type of talent.

I would rather get a veteran safety. I do t trust any rookie vs manning next year

If I'm the Chiefs, I know which one I'm favoring:

I don't know what you've been watching, but when I watched this game this past season, I thought he was really fundamentally solid, even commenting during the game that "that's the type of tackling that I wish Kendrick Lewis could do."

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/gfJpToogPYA?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

I think Dix is pretty freaking sound all the way around.

It's not that I don't like Pryor. I think he's a good safety prospect, but he's short, isn't very long, and we've already got a much more athletic and bigger and better guy manning the strong safety/front box in Berry.

Dix is two inches taller, has longer arms and better hips and feet than Pryor while being just as fast.

I'd agree, with the exception that Dix has played free safety in a system that effectively is what he'd see/be asked to do at his position under Sutton with the Chiefs.

There is definitely less of a transition period for Dix than any other rookie safety for the Chiefs defense, IMO.

Which is why I'd take Manziel or Bridgewater over Clowney, if I were the Texans. Without hesitation.

I don't think Clinton-Dix is some great tackler, but if the biggest weakness on my single-high free safety is that he's weak against the run, I'll take it.

Stale QBs who don't win shit can stink up a franchise pretty bad.

Schaub hasn't improved at all since his 2nd year as a starting QB for the Texans. He just had an absolutely awful season characterized by consecutive pick-6s and got benched in favor of Case Keenum.

They absolutely have to get him off the team. And when they do, they'll need a replacement. It's gotta be a QB there.

Sac, how would you go about Houston's QB situation? Start Keenum? Start a rookie? Pick off one of the free agent dudes?

You just can't go from playoff winner to 2-14 with virtually the same roster and start the same QB that oversaw that downfall. You just can't.

That #33 pick they've got is valuable. They might just take Clowney and trade back into the first. I've been keeping my fingers crossed that KC just might be the suitor in that situation. I really could see Manziel falling in the draft. However, I don't think he'll make it past San Francisco. He would be perfect there and Harabaugh would want him. KC won't ask for as much as some the other teams in the bottom of the first because we need picks. It's a longshot but I could see it happening.

Seriously?

San Francisco?

Yeah, I don't think so.

SF is taking Garoppolo in the 1st, lol. Jk, it would just be hilarious if they did though.

Honestly, I don't know what you do.

You might be able to chalk it up to just a weird ass anomaly type of season that ended up with the head coach stroking it and subsequently getting replaced/retired.

I know Schaub isn't the answer, but I don't think Bortles or Bridgewater are either. Manziel is tempting, but that's a team that's ready to win it all right now. A team that really, in all honesty, has to win right now. You don't get many shots at it in terms of player talent and groupings as the Texans have right now.

They've got the best defensive player in football, a solid if unspectactular LB corps, a top three OT, good receivers, etc. It's a solid team. You can't expect a Russell Wilson type of impact from a rookie QB. That was the exception versus the norm.

I think that you go into the season with a renewed sense of hope based on the 2012 season and just wipe the weird ass 2013 off the memory banks.

You hope that Schaub regains what he had versus succumbs to what just was and that Keenum builds off his experience from last season.

I know that you don't pass on generational talent, especially at the pass rush position for what looks to be an average QB lot outside of Manziel (and who the hell knows what you end up with there when it's all said and done - the guy could be Fran Tarkenton or he could be Akili Smith...you just don't know). Pass rush, elite pass rush, is second only to the QB position, and guys of Clowney's potential are just as rare as franchise level QB's. It's like the Colts passing on Andrew Luck for Trent Richardson. (Though it's funny that they ended up with him anyway.)

If I'm the Texans, I pick Clowney and then take Derek Carr in the second if he's still available. I think Carr is on the same general level as Bridgewater and would give the Texans a solid option at that point. Garrapollo would be an alternate here.

If I still didn't pick one there, I'd hope for the fourth round miracle and draft AJ McCarron, who I think has a chance to be a pretty good QB in the NFL. He'd fit the Texans rather well actually, is used to big game settings and has been very productive. I think he's got the potential of someone like Nick Foles if given the chance in terms of being successful if matched with the right team.

But I wouldn't pass on Clowney for Bridgewater or Bortles. No way, no how. Pass rush is far too important and Clowney is far too good of a prospect at the pass rush position. Getting pressure off Watt would reap immediate dividends regardless of what Clowney does as a rookie stats wise.

Nope. In my mind, you'd be ****ing reeruned passing on a generational pass rusher for a guy who projects to no better than a middle of the pack QB at best.

Their back up is Colt McCoy.

Kapernick wants a ton of money and regressed last year.

Manziel is perfect for that offense.

San Francisco has two second round picks.

They could totally take Johnny Football if he fell to them.

I watched him miss tackles, and get some tackles he definitely won't in the NFL. I appreciate the video because he shows a few things he does wrong constantly. He routinely drops his head when he tackles and that's led to whiffs. See 2:02 and 2:50 of your video. He takes guys on up high often, where he'll get blown up. See the first play of your video. He also drag tackles from the side alot, which won't fly in the NFL. I may have overstated myself a bit, but he's by no means a "good" tackler. He's below average. I should have probably said that. A bad tackler is Bennett Jackson from Notre Dame. But what skews my opinion of Dix more is that I don't think he's as good in coverage as people make him out to be. He's good in man coverage, for sure. He does, at times, make some really good plays on the ball. Where I've seen him struggle is in deep zone, which is essentially the place everyone wants him to play in KC. You watch that A&M game and you see him in the same positions we saw Lewis last year, and that scares the crap out of me. I don't know that you can rely on him as a single-high. I think he fits best in a cover-2. I think, in terms of a deep zone safety that can play the ball, you'll be hard pressed to beat Ed Reynolds of Stanford, but he is a worse tackler than Dix. Its hard to find that perfect blend of range and tackling ability. Best prospect in that regard, if you were to ask me, is Jimmie Ward of NIU. He's the top safety on my board for KC. I respect the opinions on Dix, he's going to fit well for a team. I don't think he fits for KC though. I'm leery.

I'm really high on Ward as well. Out of everyone, he reminds me the most of Earl Thomas. Plus his 4.4 times at his pro-day and great 38" vert with 10'6" broad jump to confirm his explosive power just further cements him ahead of Dix for me. Way better test numbers and better on film, IMO.

I could certainly live with the consensus best safety in this draft at #1, been saying all along that I want a 4-2 ratio defense to offense... this would be a great start towards that.

Between Commings and Dix we're likely to have that base well covered.

Berry/Abdullah, Commings/Dix... yeah, works for me.

Can you link me to Wards Pro Day info?

I don't have much faith in Commings as a starter. He's never played safety and wasn't a very good CB in the first place.

http://blogs.nfl.com/2014/03/08/jimm...inois-pro-day/

Those times and jumps are all on a busted foot.

Damn, that is ****ing impressive.

Yup, here is a little more, haha.

http://www.daily-chronicle.com/2014/...njury/a9dar3p/

I am very impressed with this kid. I really didn't know much about him until yesterday.


That said, speed isn't as important as smarts and fundamentals for free safeties imo. Jarius Byrd ran a 4.68 forty at the combine. He is good because he is extremely disciplined and detailed in his assignments. He's always in the right place at the right time.

Commings isn't beating out Ha Ha. If we take Ha Ha, he'll end up starting.

Where is Ward projected to be picked now?

Late 1st to early 2nd. He's one of those 1st round level talents who will probably be picked early 2nd instead due to the depth of this class in other positions.