Overdrafted/Underdrafted
 

Had an idea about a thread today at lunch. Was having a turkey sandwich, with Swiss cheese and spicy mustard. Started thinking "Spicy mustard is underrated, gets passed over alot".

So here we go.

What prospect do you think will get passed over due to some condition (small frame, short, slow footed etc) and end up being the best player? What player are teams going to look back on 5 years from now and think "damn, we whiffed on that one"?

Conversely, what player will be the opposite?

My pick for the overdrafted will be Dee Ford. I think he's being highly overrated. (Jake Matthews too)

For the looked over, I'm gonna go with Dom Easley. If he's healthy, I think he's potentially the best DT not named Aaron Donald in this or the past few drafts.

Jarvis Landry and Allen Robinson for the WRs. You could throw Jordan Matthews in there too because, despite the fact that he ran really fast at the combine, there is still the perception that he is too slow to create separation at the next level.

Overdrafted for WRs is going to be Kelvin Benjamin and Marquise Lee.

Why Lee?

I'm more of the opinion that injuries and QB play affected him more than anything, but I'm open to conversation.

12% drops, can't blame all of that on the QB. Of all of the top WRs (Watkins, Evans, Beckham JR, Cooks, Lee, Benjamin) Lee and Benjamin are the two that I am most wary of; they each have a very high chance of busting at the next level, significantly higher than the others.

Between the injury, the QB and the fact that I dont' believe he's had drop issues in the past, I think you can look past it.

He's a very good route runner, with normally good hands and good speed. Seems to have alot of Marvin Harrison type skills. I don't think he'll have as high of a bust rate as Benjamin.

I think Watkins has a higher chance than people think. WR's that short tend to struggle.

You mean Cooks? Sure, he'll struggle if you expect him to be your primary perimeter target, but if you use him in his best capacity as a slot WR, his production could match Wes Welker and Victor Cruz in the right system. He is actually superior in speed and quickness compared to both of those guys.

I'd take Jordan Matthews and Allen Robinson over Kelvin Benjamin in a heartbeat.

No, I mean Watkins.

I know it's against popular belief, but I'm not sure he's that skilled as a WR. He's supremely talented and I think he's best used as a Percy Harvin type player, but at Clemson I didn't really see him do alot of "WR" things other than 9's, screens and the occasional crossing route.

Thats also why I'd take Beckham over just about any WR in this draft (other than Watkins with his skillset) in an Andy Reid offense.

People were gaga over potentially bringing in Desean. Beckham could be that type of player.

I agree with Ford being highly overrated, I would take Attaochu over him without hesitation.

Attaochu is my pick for underdrafted at the OLB position. However, I would not be surprised at all to see him go in the 1st.

Overrated ILB, Mosley. Really hope he goes ahead of us so that someone good can fall to us.

I'm torn on Mosley.

Mentally, he's as good as they come. Physically, I dunno.

I wouldn't be upset at all if we took Attaochu. He's a stud.

I haven't watched much on Robinson, I know Sorter likes him though.

Watkins is 6'1" tall and over 200 pounds. He's bigger than Lee with longer arms and better hands. How is he going to struggle because of his measurables?

Again, I think right now he's just a super athlete that plays wr.

Granted you can teach him the nuances of playing wr, but I think Lee is more advanced at that now.

Underdrafted: Ryan Carrethers, DT; Arkansas State
- The guy got better every single season and is very instinctive on the field. Supposedly has a great work ethic, is strong as an ox and is a former wrestler - which helps win those leverage battles in the trenches. (Other notable DT ex-wrestlers - Ted Washington and Kelly Gregg.) Massive and thick. Had the most tackles in a single game by any defensive lineman in college this past season (16) and was able to generate pressure and collapse the pocket even when double and tripled team. Absolutely fills the void and is effective both one and two gapping. He was a one man gang for the Red Wolves and should really benefit by associative talent at the next level. NFL equivalent: Casey Hampton

Overdrafted: Freddy Bilgewater, QB; Louisville
- Has bad feet and a really poor release (half cocks his arm and throws at ear level) to go along with a small/thin frame. Has poor velocity on deep throws and tends to really put his body into those type of throws (Jimmy Clausen did the same thing at the same level). Tends to lock onto a receiver and forgets about his progression tree. Accurate and athletic though, which has got him by nicely at the college level. NFL equivalent: Todd Blackledge.

Underdrafted: WR Jordan Matthews - Vanderbilt ... The guy is basically a prototype at WR yet he keeps sliding down draft boards because of a glorified all star game. Blah, whatever, I'll take the guy that lit up the SEC his entire career any day of the week.

Overdrafted: QB Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville ... If a team takes him in the first round they'll be sorry. A 20 on the Wonderlic, poor mechanics, won't be able to play in the cold, softy, etc. He's a flop that will happen.

Agreed. Compared to most other WRs, OBJ3 seems to be a very safe but effective option.

Underdrafted - WR Brandon Cooks, being rated as 4th WR, sometimes lower, when all the guy does is get open, catch the ball, and make plays. My #1 target @23 for KC!

Overdrafted - QB Johnny Manziel, somebody in the top10 won't be able to pass him up I think, and they will regret it when they realize they can't fix this dynamo package of undisciplined Fran Tarkenton part deux.

I'm not sure a mid-first round pick in this exceptionally deep draft is what I'd call "underdrafted."; e.g., Brandin Cooks.

Overdrafted: S Jimmie Ward, DT Aaron Donald, QB Derek Carr

Underdrafted: WR Donte Moncrief, CB Jason Verrett, LB Ryan Shazier

Agreed, way too deep of a draft to really say someone is over or under drafted. The only guys that could fit into that category is QBs like Carr, Bridgewater and Mettenberger.

Underrated: Demarcus Lawrence OLB Boise St-This kid is awesome. He's a legit first rd talent that has all the tools to be a badass pass rusher. I think he's super talented and is very underrated.

Overrated: Dee Ford-The guy is a one trick pony. He can't play the run if his life depended on it. NFL OT's will own him once they get their hands on him. He's not in the same world as Clowney and he's an idiot for criticizing him.

Aaron Donald is probably going top 20 and I still think he's being underrated.

A couple of inches taller, 5-10 pounds heavier and you would be looking at the potential #1 pick in this draft.

He was the topic starter in my head for this thread.

People are going to pass on him because of that, and he's going to wreck shit.

If Donald is there at 23 (he won't be) I'd sprint to the podium and have my defensive line set for the next decade if I were the Chiefs GM.

Same here, I wouldn't even bother looking at who else was on the table. Pairing Donald up with Poe in the middle on passing downs with Hali and Houston on the outside would wreck Peyton Manning's shit.

What's he going to wreck?

He's short with a maxed out frame at 285 lbs. Unless he's the second coming of John Randall, he's going to get destroyed by NFL level linemen.

In all honesty, I was considering him as my "overdrafted" dude.

How's that Geno Atkins guy doing in the league?

Blown knee.

I understand that everyone thinks that Donald will be Atkins, and he was even more productive at the college level. And there was a reason why Atkins was picked in the fourth round. Why John Randle was an UDFA. However, because of guys like that, Donald's remarkable 2013 season and his freak level combine, somebody is going to spend a first rounder on him.

The thing is, just like under 6' QB's, in this day and age, 6'1", 285 lbs. defensive tackles have the odds stacked against them no matter how good they've been at the collegiate level.

And it won't be one on one senior bowl practices. He'll be getting doubled by centers and guards who outweigh him by fifty pounds a piece.

He's obviously talented and productive and athletic. He's got a chance, but it's not a given.

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/i...QANYH2qga_5NIY

Cyril Richardson is 40 lbs heavier. I think he could done fine against NFL OL, especially in a 4-3. Lining up against G's that is, not OT's. That would just waste his talent.

It's not just Senior Bowl practices that made Donald stand out.

For his entire career at Pitt, Donald was the only guy that opposing teams had to game plan for on that defense. Yet he still had production that was beyond the scope of anyone else in college football. 28.5 tackles for losses in a season is just ridiculous. He's one of the most productive, if not the most, DTs at the college level in recent history and ran a 4.6 at the combine at 285 pounds. His arms are longer than Timmy Jernigan's and Will Sutton's arms and they're also longer than Geno Atkins' arms.

Dominique Easley, the guy in this draft that is often compared to Donald, isn't even close to Donald in terms of production and he played on defenses where he had plenty of help around him.

This is why he's going to be under drafted.

The NFL isn't stacked with great offensive line play. Plus, the guy is so athletic and strong, that it won't matter if he's outweighed.

Destroyed by NFL lineman? Nah. Teams are in the nickel more now than they are in the base set anyway.

We shall see about Aaron Donald. The strength of NFL guards is certainly cause for alarm. We're talking about guys that can pick Donald up and toss him aside like a rag doll, something he sure as **** didn't see in college very often. Donald will have to play a flawless brand of football in terms of keeping a very low base. He'll have to be in a gap shooting scheme made to maximize his quick first step and help offset his severe lack of weight. He could see solid production in a 4-3 as an UT. He certainly is a good football player, but that doesn't always transfer to the pros.

You guys act as if NFL guards are the boogey man compared to NCAA level guards.

Come on man. There is a night and day difference. This is the type of comment that I expect from someone silly enough to say that a college team can compete against the Jaguars or something. NFL guards are far better than collegiate guards and you know it. Functional playing strength of a veteran guard is far greater than that of a college guard, and there is no question about it.

Is there a better than average chance Donald will become a good NFL player? I think so, I think his physical abilities are difficult to block in my experience. As a bigger player, it is difficult to move as fast as Donald at the snap which makes it more difficult to gain the leverage necessary to move him. However, NFL guards will get leverage and the results will not be good when they do.

Like I said, Donald will have to be put in the right scheme where he can use his athleticism to win the point of attack and disrupt the backfield. He's going to be able to do that as an under tackle in a 4-3 where he's playing the 3-technique primarily against slower players. That is the whole key because he will not be able to overcome the strength of NFL guards, it just is not going to happen. He has to beat them athletically, and that he is more than capable of.

He isn't going to line up on tackles and beat them in a 3-4 in my opinion. They are too in tune with smaller, faster, lineman and more ideally equipped to shut them down, so this dream some are having of him lining up as a defensive end in an odd front is laughable to me. Put him where he belongs, and there is a solid chance he's successful.

Are they better? Sure.

Is there this great canyon of ability between the two? No. The NFL is all about leverage, which is something that Donald absolutely excels at. He's stronger and faster, more athletic than 90% of NFL guards.

They'll have pounds on him sure, but that doesn't really translate to anything.

I think hes talented enough to play the 34 end, but it would be a waste because he'd be dominant playing inside. It's also why id take him here in KC as we aren't sitting our DE's outside consistently.