Late night bullshit: The path to a wild card berth.
 

The records of teams to get wildcards in the AFC of the last three years:

2013: Chiefs 11-5, Chargers 9-7

2012: Colts 11-5, Bengals 10-6

2011: Steelers 12-4, Bengals 9-7

In the last three years, 100% of the AFC teams that have finished 10-6 or better got into the playoffs, at least as Wild Cards.

In the last three years, three non-division winners finished 9-7, and only the 2011 Titans failed to secure a Wild Card berth. Zero teams with 8-8 or worse have received a WC berth.

That roughly means that if you're not winning your division in today's AFC, you've got a 0% chance to get in if you finish 8-8 or worse. Teams that finish 9-7 have a 2/3s chance of getting in. And teams that finish better than that get in 100% of the time.

The Chiefs have five games for the remainder of the season that they should definitely win:

• Week 8, hosting the Rams
• Week 9, hosting the Jets
• Week 10, hosting the Bills
• Week 12, hosting the Raiders
• Week 15, visiting Oakland

With those 5 games in our pocket -- and obviously nothing is a sure thing -- that should give us a starting position of 7-2.

Which means, to get to that magical 9-7 threshold, we need two more wins. And three more wins if we want to be a sure thing.

The remaining games to get two wins from:

• Week 5, visiting San Francisco
• Week 7, visiting San Diego
• Week 11, hosting the Seahawks
• Week 13, hosting the Broncos
• Week 14, visiting Arizona
• Week 16, visiting Pittsburgh
• Week 17, hosting the Chargers

I would hope the Chiefs could secure at least two more wins here, but I'll be damned if I know where it is.

Shit, this year's schedule is brutal.

Home games, Zona, Pit, and 49ers are all winnable.

Pitt and the 9ers would be the two. Alex is gonna rape faces this Sunday.

I think we can beat San Diego as well. I know that may sound nuts but our scrubs had them beat last year. #****upforsuccop

We always lose one we shouldn't also. I'd say we need three out of your tough list. Unless you want to count Tennessee as our should have won.

If that doesn't count, I don't know what does.

I'm with this guy. And while that game was already out there in week 1, leaving 15 more games to have a surprise, I think the true surprises might be over with how physical we've been playing in the last 3 games despite injury. The only thing that stops this team in its tracks from winning between 8-10 games is losing Alex Smith (knock on wood).

You play your season one week at a time.

Just to recap.

The Chiefs absolutely need to win all FIVE of the winnable games:

Week 8, hosting the Rams
Week 9, hosting the Jets
Week 10, hosting the Bills
Week 12, hosting the Raiders
Week 15, visiting the Raiders

And now that they have defeated the Chargers, they need to win ONE of the following games to finish 9-7 and have a 2/3s chance at the postseason:

Week 11, hosting the Seahawks
Week 13, hosting the Broncos
Week 14, visiting Arizona
Week 16, visiting Pittsburgh
Week 17, hosting the Chargers

If the Chiefs win TWO of those games (while winning all five of the others), they're 10-6, and recent history suggests they'd be a lock for the playoffs.

Not a lock.

We are visiting the Bills in week 10, not hosting them. Even so we should be favored to win that game. 10 wins is easily within grasp as long as we don't get away from our running game like Andy has a tendency to do.

If we're talking two wins against the tougher teams, Pittsburgh and San Diego would help us the most. They'll both be in the wild card race.

Fire Dorsey and it'll happen

We're fans, we speculate the merits of Andys bra selection. Stick that cliche straight up your ass.

Awwwwe. I see you don't like my level headed approach. It's not cliche. Everything I have ever done, sports coaching, military has been about focusing on the task at home. I didn't say you had to do it.....

The Buffalo game is a road game.

11 wins isn't a lock for a playoff spot in this division. Not this season.

Arizona won 10 last year and missed.

Well, what other afc team is going to win 11 games? It's very possible the chiefs, chargers, Broncos all make the playoffs

Other than the broncos, there isn't a team there that we can't beat. Not that we will, just that we could.

So that's cool I guess

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but can you honestly look at our remaining schedule and say there's a team that can't beat us?

If we're being honest, this team is bipolar as ****. We have no idea on a week to week basis who is showing up.

Unless they figure out who the **** they are and start playing like it consistently, the rest of this season is going to be a roller coaster.

Othe than the Titans game which seems to have been an outlier, which game have they not "shown" up for though?

They've lost to two tough teams on the road on the last possession.

I guess "show up" was a poor choice of words. They've been competitive, but they've also been extremely fortunate.

Some cobwebs on the brain this AM so I'm having a hard time explaining what I mean. I guess I'm wondering if the team that is balanced, disciplined and pushing the ball down the field is going to show up - or the team that forgets they have the best RB in football, bad game management, a ton of penalties, etc shows up.

**** it. Maybe I'll revisit this later. I know what I'm seeing, I just can't seem to articulate it.

Sorry.

It's a message board, discussions here have nothing to do with outcomes on the field. I don't see you going in to Vailpass threads talking one sloppy halftime cougar bj at a time.

Fortunate for what?

I get what you're saying, but even with playing the toughest schedule in the afc up to this point, I'd say they're pretty misfortune to not be 5-1 atleast.

I think we can all agree they should have won in San fran. I'd imagine that's what you're talking about, games like that.

I don't know what happened against the titans, but I think it's pretty fair to say at this point, this team is more talented and better than we all thought it would be.

The Chiefs are actually the least penalized offense in the NFL.

Like, two of those penalties were backbreakers in the 49ers game, but the point stands.

I can't speak to defense, however. I'm sure everybody's getting flagged out the ass on defense this year.

Rams wont be a cake walk.
Posted via Mobile Device

The idea that the Chiefs are "fortunate" is hilarious.

The Chiefs suffered several really bad injuries on our defense and lost what passes for our #2 WR, and had to stitch together an OL. We also had to compensate for no Charles for two weeks.

We've generated almost no turnovers. We're beating teams by controlling the ball, converting on 3rds, and running the ball hard.

We played keepaway from Rivers and Manning, and played keepaway from Kaepernick in the 1st half (before the 49ers turned the tables on us in the 2nd). The Dolphins are the only team you could argue straight-up beat themselves, but we weren't playing down to their level.

I think this is all a kneejerk reaction to the 2013 season, when a worse Chiefs team than this year's faced the best luck ever with their schedule and opponents.

This year, we're earning it.

Well it's good that right now we have the tiebreaker over SD and MIA.

SD has an absolutely brutal schedule overall from now until the end of the year. They go to Denver and then Miami. Then their last 5 games are insane.

All we have to do is take care of business. If we win at Pitt than that will be huge. We need to be around 1 game of SD for the rest of the season so that it's in our hands in week 17 at home.

Agreed. We are 2-2 against winning teams (3-2 when Miami wins vs Jags this week).
We've beaten 2 5-2 teams.
SD hasn't beaten a winning team all season. If anything, the Chargers are the 2013 Chiefs.

Easy, buster.

The Chargers beat the Seahawks. Russell Wilson is not exactly Jeff Teul.

We need to continue to improve. A nice long wins streak, say 4 or 5 straight would go a long way.

I believe.

Winning the next three upeople to that matchup with the Seahawks would be great.

Maybe they'll keep falling apart til then

This is absolutely right.

Next three games are supremely winnable.

Rams, Jets, Bills.

I thought we traded you.

:clap: It could happen!

AND THIS IS HOW I FIND OUT?

Ray farmer needs to see you. Bring your key board.

:spock: they beat the Bills, numb nuts.

I would pick the Texans, Steelers, Chargers, and Bengals for WC spots before the Alex Smiffs.

You aren't the first to get fired on Chiefsplanet...

Well, got a loss we needed

Now we need the Steelers and Bills to start looking like the shit stains they truly are while the Bengals keep faltering.

While, of course, we rip off these three straight wins that we need!

Bills are banged up and have kyle Orton at qb. I think Miami is a team to watch

We have the tie-breaker with Miami. And I agree with O.city -- the Bills are going to implode.

Our competition is the Steelers and the Chargers. We need to handle our business. We play both of them late in the season.

Chiefs can finish 3rd in the Division and still get in.

No one thinks the Bengals are a threat anymore?

steelers will ****ing cream us

Late night bullshit: The path to a wild card berth.
 

Their defense is old, slow and undisciplined. Big Ben will likely eat a handful of sacks for holding onto the ball too long.

Antonio and Leveon will literally fist **** is though.

Credible poster is credible.

ROFL

He gay indeed, Simply Red. He gay indeed.

I've never been less worried about Pittsburgh, so they beat up on Houston at home... big deal.

No one should be shocked when we beat them.

It'll be interesting seeing Allen Bailey and Dontari Poe chasing Big Ben around. LMAO

I think the game will be very tough. Playing in Pitt is tough enough, you just know Haley will be dialing up the best offensive gameplan of the year for the Chiefs.

Big Ben is raping this year and Leveon Bell is an elite back.

We'll need to score 30+ to beat that team.

Can we just all take a moment and remember that Scott Pioli, Todd Haley, and Matt Cassel all once had the keys to this franchise?

How the **** does that even happen?

Maybe if you didn't say the exact same thing every time the Chiefs face a decent opponent only to be proven wrong, people would give two shits about what you say about the matter.

You need new material.

Ben is my prototype QB, but no, he isnt raping this year at all... he has about 300 more yards and 2 more touchdowns than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Thats Haleys fault, and he's the idiot who'll be calling the plays against us.

Their defense isnt scary anymore, at all... our offense should be able to pretty much do what it wants against them.

if ****ing Andy just runs the same game plan as we did at sandy eggo, we win all,if the d can't hold we got problems

I'd love to be wrong but I just don't see a team with this much ****ed up make the playoffs...

he failed the physical, some PE or something

he failed the physical, some PED or something

Yeah. They looked awesome against my browns in that 31-10 beat down. The Steelers are garbage.

The Buccaneers beat the Steelers at Heinz Field.

The Buccaneers.

Look over how the Buccaneers have played this season and let that settle in.

He is a troll. That's all he will ever be.

96 QB rating and will easily throw for over 4000 yards...

Wish he was our QB.

And yet he will not make the playoffs and probably finish last in the division. Well done.

Your obsession with 4000 yards is hilarious.

I was thinking the same thing yesterday

Week 13, hosting the Broncos-one of these days we get them
Week 14, visiting Arizona-possible
Week 16, visiting Pittsburgh-definitely
Week 17, hosting the Chargers-yes

taking the winnable one from above and 2 of those 4. =10 Wild card

Just get to 10 and we'd be in. 11 would be nice but that's doubtful

We beat the Bolts and I'd bet the others from this group come from the Steelers, Seahawks and Bolts again. I'm not worried about winning games from this group as much as I am losing games from the "should win" group - BECAUSE CHIEFS!

Over Geno Smith??? ROFL

This defense will de-pants and rape BigBen.

Just tired of having a passing game in the bottom 1/4 of the league.

Just looked at SD's schedule.

@Baltimore
New England
Denver
@SF
@KC

That is a brutal way to end the year.