The way I understand the playoff picture...
 

This Arizona game is a gravy game. It's not critical to our chances at a playoff spot, but it would really help.

Due to our losses the past two weeks, we need to get to ten wins, and we need to run up the conference win record. I've been noodling down about a dozen scenarios, and the Chiefs must beat Oakland, Pittsburgh, and San Diego to get to 8-4 in AFC play, which would make the Chiefs virtually tie-breaker proof against any AFC wild card team.

Those wins get us to 10-5, and we can honestly drop the Arizona game at that point. 11-5 gets us in, of course, but 10-6 with wins over the Dolphins and Steelers almost guarantees we're in.

The Browns are imploding, the Chargers are hitting a buzzsaw of games at the end of their season. I expect both of them to fade to 9-7 or worse (I have them both at 8-8), which puts them out of contention.

The Ravens, more than anybody, have been bolstered by slaughtering cupcakes in the NFCS. The Ravens are 7-5 with a game in Miami this week that will likely be their version of KC-Pittsburgh, and three winnable games to close out the season. That's probably a 10-6 record. A 10-6 Chiefs team has a very easy tie-breaker with them because our conference record will have trounced theirs.

The most obvious threats here are the Bengals, the Dolphins, and the Steelers. Beating the Steelers mean we have any tie-breaker you want over two of those teams. And I think the Bengals are waltzing to the AFCN title.

This is a bit jumbled, but there's virtually no world where we lose to Oakland, Pittsburgh, and/or San Diego and survive to the postseason. But we can lose against the Cards and still comfortably get there by winning all three.

Shut up. It's over.

So we have to win 3/4. Then beat Luck, Manning and Brady in succession to make a SB?

Hate to burst your bubble but the season ended Sun night

Banned for starting any thread discussing Chiefs and Playoffs.

M'alright. Mathematically we're very much alive.

We've got four winnable games, albeit against very tough competition, that should allow us a very real shot at winning into the postseason. Capping off a sweep of the Chargers would be icing on the cake.

How I project the rest of the season working out:

1. Pats, Donks, Colts get slots 1-3, in order.

2. Here's how the top wild card contenders fare:

Dolphins (7-5):

vs. Baltimore W
@ NE L
vs. Vikings W
vs. Jets W

Dolphins end up 10-6.

Browns (7-5):

vs. Colts L
vs. Bengals L
@ Panthers W
@ Ravens L

Browns end up 8-8.

Steelers (7-5):

@ Cincy L
@ Falcons W
vs. Chiefs L
vs. Bengals W

Steelers end up 9-7.

Ravens (6-4):

@ Dolphins L
vs. Jags W
@ Texans W
vs. Browns W

Ravens end up 10-6.

Bengals (8-3-1):

vs. Steelers W
@ Browns W
vs. Broncos L
@ Steelers L

Bengals end up 10-5-1.

Chiefs (7-4):

@ Arizona L
vs. Oakland W
@ Steelers W
vs. Chargers W

Chiefs end up 10-6.

Chargers (7-4):

vs. Patriots L
vs. Broncos L
@ 49ers L
@ Chiefs L

Chargers end up 7-9.

3. Bengals win the #4 slot.

4. As for the remaining three 10-6 teams vying for the #5 and #6 slot:

Dolphins 10-6
Ravens 10-6
Chiefs 10-6

(a.) If the Dolphins lose to the Ravens this week, they would have lost to both the Ravens and the Chiefs, and therefore would lose this tiebreaker automatically. The Chiefs have the better projected conference record than the Ravens, 8-4 to 6-6.

(b.) If the Dolphins win, as I expect they will, than it will be a three-way tiebreaker, with the two best AFC records getting the remaining playoff spots.

The next tie-breaker is AFC conference record:

Dolphins: 8-4
Chiefs: 8-4
Ravens: 6-6

The Dolphins and Chiefs get the remaining slots. The Chiefs would actually be the #5 team, and probably visit Cincinnati.

I could go for that.

Quote:

Nuts might be a good one, I bought these in-shell hickory smoked peanuts that are incredible.

Hazelnuts roasted—to die for. Made a hazelnut chocolate cake this Thanksgving for a B-Day cake. I make hazelnut Madeleines each Christmas. Delicious!

It should be noted that if the Chiefs lose to the Steelers, they'll probably lose on tie-breakers EVEN if they end up winning the other three games.

Hell, probably losing to either the Chargers or Oakland does the same.

Currently dropping a Sunday night Chiefs into the bowl

I said in another thread. Even though we are currently in th 6th seed. It will go to someone in the afcn in the end. Chiefs blew it with the Oakland loss. Which shows they are not playoff ready and the lines seem to get softer each week.

we definitely need to get in so we can lose our token playoff game

I think KC and Baltimore get the WC spots. Miami will choke one away against Minnesota or somebody. Buffalo, Cleveland, and SD have really tough schedules. Cincy takes the north.

There's no way to know. How many times have the Chiefs zigged this year when you could have SWORE they were about to zag.

Preseason: Looked like a 7-9 team.

After Week 1: Looked like a 3-13 team.

After Week 6: Looked like a 9-7 team.

After week 11: Looked like a 12-4 team.

After week 13: Look like a 8-8 team.

There's just no telling. Get into the playoffs, get hot, maybe even get a favorable first round matchup (we can take Dalton), and you never know.

Moot. No way we beat the Steelers. If they use the Jets gameplan from last night, Leveon Bell has 250 yards rushing.

WELL IT'S BEEN FUN.

THANKS FOR THE FEEDBACK EVERYBODY.

HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY.

Because we are the Chiefs.

Never forget that.

Doom is coming.

I get that it's an NFC team, but they are still 9-3 and KC is on the road... at 7-5, 3rd in the division with 4 games left - I don't think there are really any gravy games.

I don't see SD losing all 4, the win at BAL was impressive and I think they can beat the Patriots. Hell, they could go 2-2 or 3-1... anything is possible.

I think KC wins @ AZ and loses @ PIT, I'd flip those 2 games, but can see both home games as a win. If SD is out, you'll have a deflated visitor and should get the win. If SD is in the hunt - look out.

The Bengals - it's hard to trust them and while PIT has been sporadic, I think they'll sweep Cincy.

Here's my revision from your list - if I messed something up, you'll let me know.

Patriots, Broncos and Colts get slots 1-3.

2. Here's how the top wild card contenders fare:

Dolphins (7-5):

vs. Baltimore L
@ NE L
vs. Vikings W
vs. Jets W

Dolphins end up 9-7.

Browns (7-5):

vs. Colts L
vs. Bengals L
@ Panthers W
@ Ravens L

Browns end up 8-8.

Steelers (7-5):

@ Cincy W
@ Falcons W
vs. Chiefs W
vs. Bengals W

Steelers end up 11-5.

Ravens (7-5):

@ Dolphins W
vs. Jags W
@ Texans W
vs. Browns W

Ravens end up 11-5.

Bengals (8-3-1):

vs. Steelers L
@ Browns W
vs. Broncos L
@ Steelers L

Bengals end up 9-6-1.

Chiefs (7-5):

@ Arizona W
vs. Oakland W
@ Steelers L
vs. Chargers W

Chiefs end up 10-6.

Chargers (8-4):

vs. Patriots W
vs. Broncos L
@ 49ers W
@ Chiefs L

Chargers end up 10-6.

So, however that works out... believe that puts PIT, Baltimore and KC in as the #6 with the sweep over SD.

How the hell in any world will the Chiefs run D stop Bell? The Steelers game is a LOSS.

Don't have to stop, just contain.

This is the NFL. Any team can beat anybody on a given night like putrid Oakland did to us. The Chiefs made trash out of New England and made Tom Brady look like he was ready to hang em up for good. The Chiefs are as much in this still as any other team since there's about a hundred AFC teams at 7-5 right now and some of those teams are in a more precarious state than we are. WE CAN DO THIS!

Ok I'm going to go take my meds now.

I'm shocked that so many people think this is a winnable game

They lost to the jets, bucs, and saints. I'm shocked people act like they are unbeatable. Sure we could lose but it's a toss up. Two teams that play very good or very bad depending on the week.

Perhaps I could interest you in my Black-Eyed Pea Humuus recipe. It's delish!

Don't worry, they'll bring it to the last game against the Chargers, it'll be a lose and go home, win and get in game. It'll suck all the homers in. But just like every other time it matters, they'll piss down their leg and lose in epic fashion.

I think the SD and Oakland games are very winnable. Pitt is the only team I'm worried about.

But boy does their secondary suck ass. Their CB's are so bad. Too bad we can't, um ya know....TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT

'Somebody's gotta go back to town and get us a shit load of wide receivers'

We're ****ed.

We're completely ****ed.

Just accept it.

That will be the game Andy decides to run Jamaal 45 times.

You know, to trick them.

it ended the moment Dorsey thought it was a good idea to go into the season with a depleted O-Line and receiving corps

Andy saw your man of speed video and then stopped using him.

I think Sunday night was a wake up call and the Cardinals game will be a classic "gut check" game.

Mark my words:

-The Chiefs will win out and make the playoffs.-

I hope you are right man. I hope we get Bailey back next week. We really need him.

Walker and Howard are both good DEs. If Bailey can't go, it won't be the end of the world

We win next week and we're back in. We win two in a row and we could be sitting in the 5 hole. So to me the OP is wrong and winning at Zona is a must.

http://i59.tinypic.com/2yp0ztw.gif

Hot Tub Frolic about to turn violent up in here!


http://i.imgur.com/Zv3n0lf.gif

The Cardinals have a far better defense than Denver.

We'll be lucky to score 17.

Wins against Arizona and Oakland are really gonna get this place back in business.

Losing to Denver sucked, but even playing a terrible game, we were still a play or two away from a win.

I disagree.

I think Denver's defense is not only better, but was playing inspired ball.

If our OL can play like they did a couple weeks ago, the offense will hum along just fine.

I expect a 23-13 type win.

This is the same team that DESTROYED the Pats on MNF.

Same team that beat the world champs a couple weeks ago.

Same team that beat a red hot SD team in SD.

Same team that came back from multiple scores against one of the best defenses in the league in the 4th quarter in one of the hardest places to play.

If this team doesn't come out firing on all cylinders Sunday, I'll be shocked.

Expectations are low but the gifs aren't even funny. We need to win just one game and then see where we stand. That's where it stands.

I sorta get it, they were 5-1 at the time... had defeated the Seahawks (in SD), but they had also just beaten the Bills, Jags, Jets and Raiders.

Enh.

As bad as the offense and run defense was, we fell for a fake punt, had a punt hit Cooper for a turnover, a dumb int, and am inexplicable Avery fumble. All that crap and not getting completely blowed out was an accomplishment

Exactly.

We flat out gave them at least 10 points

Yeah, it was a game where most of that went Denver's way - hard to win with that crap happening.

I was STUNNED when forced to punt again and they pulled the fake, sitting 14-0 at midfield on the road, I just didn't think they had the stones to do that. Impressive, could have backfired in a major way - could have been a major momentum switch.

Then, the punt hitting Cooper - crazy dumb luck.

And, I want to say that Manning has overthrown Sanders 37 times in the last few weeks on that same damn deep route to the right. It's crazy.

All season, I've said that McManus would cost Denver a win ... had they not replaced him, this would have been that week. Absolutely no way that nutsack nails 5 FGs. It's so rare to see them settle that many times, but McManus would have showed his McAnus and missed 2 of those.

True , but the Chiefs were totally dominated from start to finish. At times KC could have gotten back in it - I think when the punt hit Cooper that changed all that. Honestly, I think that Denver knew they had it which is why they got FG's instead of TD's. There was a bit of a let up on their part more than the Chiefs doing anything to help their cause. The game was not as "close" as the score suggests. It was the worst ass kicking since Reid took over. Denver dominated in the trenches both ways. No way to spin it otherwise.

Who knows ... with this team it is unwise to even wish for wins much less predict what will happen. They have have already won more than I thought before the fist game. I agree with Direckshun in post #14. It has been an up and down season for expectations and for Andy's coaching ability. Losses to Tenn. & Oakland ... then the near win in Denver seemed to indicate we could take them at home and a good chance to take the division. Now it looks to me like we are toast.

ESPN has the Chiefs rates at 46% to make the playoffs ... which is better than all the other teams.

Quote: WakkaWakka "Don't worry, they'll bring it to the last game against the Chargers, it'll be a lose and go home, win and get in game. It'll suck all the homers in. But just like every other time it matters, they'll piss down their leg and lose in epic fashion."

See guys I don't know what to hope for ... 1. just barely get into the playoffs and then as usual get blown out in the first game ... at least we can say we have a "getting into the playoffs" streak. Or; 2. Lose to Ari., Pitt, and SD and put us out of our misery??? And maybe Dorsey gets the message that we need top quality NFL talent ... i.e. not just bodies on the OL, or "tall WR/CR's" but talented players whatever their measurable.

BTW ... know this is a topic for another thread ... understand that even GM's need to learn how to do their job ... but I'm not impressed with Dorsey's running of the Chiefs.

Yes, ILChief ... almost ... but an uninspired first half after a mini-bye week raises serious questions about Andy's coaching ability. Well, his decision to keep Sutton after the ending of last season raises even greater questions but that is a subject for another thread. Just being stupid (meaning me) ... you do realize it is the final score that matters in determining playoffs not how close the game was.

Denvers defense held the Chiefs to 16 points without their best CB. We ****ing suck.

The pass rush was fun though, pulled this from Mile High Report... Ware was all over the place.

https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0tF...os_sacks.0.gif

We may not need to score 17 the way the Cardinals offense is playing. They only scored 18 vs the falcons and 7 of that was on a pick six. Falcons have a much worse defense than we do. And Ellington will either be out or very limited.

Mile High ... just curious ... you have SD beating Pats & S.F. yet losing to the Chiefs & Broncos. I know that AFCW teams usually win at home no matter the record (re: Oak/KC) ... but, if they beat the Pats logic would say the beat the Chiefs????

Which seems to indicate losing to Den is a homer pick???

And, you note I dare not pick those games. I see they can go either way. For what's it's worth, I think the Donks win out, but the way things have gone this year ... SD could wind up winning the division ... not likely (coz Donks have an easy schedule) but who knows????

I don't think that's the case. KC already beat SD in SD, so it's reasonable they'd beat SD in KC.

Denver is a better team than SD, and has also beaten them once this season. It's not really a homer pick to choose Denver to win.

Nothing is absolute and I'm just guessing, as everyone else is... but, I don't think NE will play well on the road after a tough road loss this week. Call me crazy, but I think SD carries the momentum from the Baltimore win into this one and catches NE on the back end of a tough 2 game road trip.

I'm not as impressed with SF lately, think SD can snag that one.

Manning and the Broncos are 15-1 vs the AFCW since his arrival, the lone loss being to SD in Denver (of all places). I think Denver plays well and takes that one, and after a grueling stretch of tough games - I think SD falls flat at the end in KC.

Browns and Bills will make the playoffs

You are high. Oakland was the wake up call, and the Chiefs hit snooze. We're done.

I think Andy was the biggest reason we lost last Sunday. Not the players.

The biggest reason we lost was because the OL couldn't block their pass rush.

So what's going on in here? Anyone have a hot tub?

Direckshun, here's a bag of dicks. Try the big blue one.

Chiefs didn't just lose, they totally rolled over in the biggest game of the year thus far, at home.

Its hard to see them going on some big run after these last two pimp slappings by conference opponents, they've been exposed again just like they were this time last year.

Yeah, that and the defense arm-tackling, the line getting slaughtered every down, and our QB who isn't willing to throw the ball.

Other than that, it was definitely all Andy.

This was a top to bottom bed-shitting. Players, coaches, GM, concession stand vendors, etc.

What you didn't figure into the equation is the Browns.

The Browns are putting Johnny Manziel in the week so this pretty much assures the Browns of getting in to the 6th seed at least. Where will that leave us ?

ROFL

True, sort of. No game is hugely more important than than another, but the critical thing is to win 3 of 4.

A whole dozen out of 2^64? Wow. I recommend looking at about the 5000 most likely scenarios and go from there. But you are basically correct that getting to 10-6 wiht the last loss coming against Arizona gets us to a 97% chance of making the playoffs.



Complete hogwash. If we get to 10 - 6 with a loss to the following teams the odds of us making the playoffs are:

Pittsburgh: 82%
Oakland: 95%
San Diego: 63%

Direckshun, give it up man. You're a shitty clairvoyant.

Chiefs most likely have to win 3 of the next 4 to have a chance

There are realistic scenarios where they lose to Arizona or Oakland but win out and still miss the playoffs
They can lose to one of the 3 remaining AFC teams, however it will be harder to get in than that way

The big games though are at Pitt and home against SD

Just running through some scenarios a loss against either of those teams dramatically reduces their chances of getting in

/thread

So this is what it's like to be diagnosed with AIDS.

Yeah, Reid got scared and thought we'd have to put up more points, rather than playing to the team's strength of ball control offense. I hope he learned something.