6-10 Team with Chase Daniel
 

Someone at the game today made a comment that we should play Chase Daniel next year and "get rid of that clown Smith". Like always, I wanted to see what the data suggests.


We have almost no sample size for Daniel as he's played 2 games. We have a large sample size for Alex though. QB rating is extremely correlated to wins in the NFL. The average rating is 84: a team can expect an additional win (or loss) moving approximately 6 points from the median. Alex had a 93 rating and Daniel had a 75 rating today. That's an implied swing of 3 full games if we assume static performance.


While there is no way to know if Daniel would perform differently over the course of a season, it's doubtful any teams (or our own coaching staff) believe he could. Else, he'd be picked up as a starter. Whether Chiefs fans see any value finishing 9-7 vs 6-10 if you miss the playoffs regardless is another discussion.

You'd be hard pressed to convince me that Chase couldn't do anything Alex did this season.

Nobody on any NFL team is more popular than the backup quarterback.

Any qb can play this offense.
Any claim to fame about Daniel in this offense is basically reeruned. 5 visits to the red zone and 1 TD.
Nothing to crow about for Daniel other than he can fill in adequately for this teams game manager.

I agree with this mostly. The one exception is the Buffalo game. I think Smith won that game for us. It was the perfect game for his non turnover and risk averse nature paid off huge.

I'm not convincing anyone of anything, I'm simply posting the data.

If you believe Chase Daniel could run a full season with a 93 rating though, I'll find that extremely doubtful and nobody in the League would likely agree.

Well, for Packers fans, I think it's...
Favorite player: Aaron Rodgers
2nd favorite player: One legged Aaron Rodgers

Daniel didn't have a very good game, but I do think its hard to step in and play at a high level when you don't even know you are starting until a few days before the game.

I remember that Buffalo game being won by fantastic play out of Ron Parker, only to see him get turned to burnt toast the rest of the season. I honestly have no memory of Alex's performance that game.

Daniel's first start of the year with less than a week of preparation > Smith's first start of the year with a full offseason.

With the limited practice days and times allowed, I wonder how many minutes of 1st team practice snaps he even got to take?

95% of the production for 25% the price.

My thoughts too when I heard that. I figured it was probably being said here too. Alex' rating the past 4 years has been pretty stout and is probably adding 2 full wins to our season records vs an average QB.

Except not even close.

Pretty much.

He has the same arm and running ability, but way more guts.

You can tell from 2 games?


Riiiiiight.

Hard to believe that a QB would be playing his best during his first start in a year.


data incomplete


conclusion fail

But you can?

Felt like this should be quoted

I can tell you that Alex isn't getting us anywhere, so why not put that cap space towards the ultimate OLine or WR's?

Besides, the 2 games of data backs up my argument a hell of a lot better than yours.

Daniel is probably one of the league's better backup quarterbacks, which is what he should remain.

Your "data" has Chase with two games, how many games does Alex have?

2 games of data, lolz.

at least we can confirm that Bowe is allergic to the endzone.

I want to know what you're smoking if you think Smiff is way better than Daniel!

And QBR is not a stat Id rely on to pick a QB.

6-10 doesn't satisfy Lil' Chiefy. He demands at least 7 in order to feel good about himself.

Give me a break. Smith is easily better than daniel.

What I hope this exposed was the dumbass myths we've been shoveled all year long that are excuses for Smith. The OL is terrible... They looked just fine today behind a QB who got rid of the ball quickly. The receivers are a dumpster fire... They were getting open today and had a QB who actually took shots at them downfield. The second half showed us the real chase Daniel. Neither Smith nor Daniel are the answer. Sorry guys... While this game should signal to management that we should no longer make excuses for Smith, it probably solidifies chase Daniel as our backup. It's one of those catch 22 only the Chiefs can find themselves in. Backup plays well enough to damage stock of first string qb but also strengthen stock of the backup qb who isn't the answer.

let's not get carried away here guys, 16/27 157yds 0td 0int doesn't qualify as tearing it up solely because his name isn't Smith ROFL

I don't think anyone is looking for Daniel to be the starter here. We're just making the point that Alex was in no way better in 15 games than what Chase was today (with no reps the first few days of practice with the ones, to boot).

So 2 games isn't enough for me to make an assessment - but it's enough for you? Good to know. Thanks.

WHO? WHO COULD WE HAVE GOTTEN TO FILL ALEX'S MIGHTY SHOES, THEY ASKED?

Answer:

Just about anyone. And we did.

You're welcome. Any time.

What's ironic is most people would've been in favor of dumping Daniel for Bray and Murray. But I think he's a solid veteran backup. He's done a good job when asked to play in the regular season.

But anything can happen in a single game too. Matt Flynn is in the Green Bay Packers record book for yards and TDs in a game. He started a week 17 game and put up better numbers than Rodgers had all year. So it can happen to anyone.

I'm still in favor of dumping him. Him and Smith.

He was as good today (75 rating) as the guy with a 93 rating? Bizarro world stuff.

When you look at the games the Chiefs have won the past two years with Alex Smith at QB, it's hard to find a game where a performance like Chase Daniel's performance today would NOT have won the game. It maybe costs the Chiefs 2 wins over the two seasons, and maybe turns a few more losses into blowouts.

Considering the huge gap in pay (and cost to acquire) and therefore expectations, it's rather disturbing to see such a small gap in performance.

Just imagine the Chiefs had gone with a stop-gap like Daniel (or Campbell, or Palmer, or Ryan Fitzpatrick, etc.), used the picks traded for Smith to improve the roster with a WR (Justin Hunter, Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, etc) or OL, and used the money either on free agents or to lock up Justin Houston before he recorded a 22-sack season (which probably saves KC $10-15 million over the course of a five-year deal) and hit FA.

They'd be in much better shape for the long haul. Especially if that 2014 first round pick had been used on someone like Teddy Bridgewater.

have you ever tried meth?

How about you compare their first starts of the year instead of 1 game vs 15, dumbass.

No the two seasons of Alex Smith data is enough for us to back up our assessment. One of those games was with backups at every single position last year, and today's game was with a busted up Jamaal Charles.

At the price Daniel would run; we'd be able to spend considerably on some decent OL/WR/whatever else. Alex's contract will cripple this franchise.

Not that I'm any sort of Daniel fan; but the only difference between sitting home at 9-7 and sitting home at 6-10 is getting a better draft slot.

The regression value of QB Rating puts serious doubts into your thesis, unless you believe Daniel is a 90+ guy over the course of the season. And that would be an opinion you'd be unlikely to find many places.


The gap is sizeable. But I'd agree Smith is making a lot of $. If however you feel putting $ into other positions is worth a 10-pt hit to QB Rating......the data suggests that's a bad idea.

Always viewed Daniel as a one read qb and today was no exception. Until I see the dude actually run through progressions, to me, chase Daniel is a slightly more athletic Matt Flynn.

I'm not willing to base that read on QB rating, which I think is a nice stat but not THAT telling or conclusive.

Smith's QB Rating is also a fairly "empty" one. He throws a bunch of short, safe, high-percentage passes, which makes his completion percentage good, and he avoids turnovers. Both of these factors artificially inflate his QB rating.

Go look at it game-by-game. That's what I did before I said that. There are very few games that the Chiefs have won in 2013 and 2014 that actually required Alex Smith to DO much at all (other than manage the game and avoid ****ing up).

But what would Tyler Bray have done?

The playbook and the guy calling those plays is the problem right now. End of story.

If Bowe didn't drop that pass on the goalline, what would Chase's rating have been? What has Alex done this year that makes you think Chase didn't look like a complete copy of him today? Or is this some weak ass attempt to knock on a Mizzou guy?

Daniel got 1 day of practice with the starters. That's significant.

The offense would have to be damn near scrapped and re-worked to suit his particular talents.

Which would be so.....so terrible.

How would we ever cope?

I believe Daniel would suck if given the opportunity to play 16 games. I KNOW Alex Smith sucks already. One costs a 1/4 of the other and you're never winning anything important with either.

Woo-hoo. The life of a Chiefs fan.

In fact, I'm not saying this is the case, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if they did that on purpose. Again, not the case, but it wouldn't shock me. We all saw what Chase did last year, on the road, with the backups.

Chase would be a nice stopgap while we look for a real QB.

Daniel and Houston, or Alex and some new guy? What's your choice now?

You're not competing for a SB with either of these garbage QBs, so who gives a rat's ass?

/thread.

Exactly.


Ditch the expensive QB, and plug in the cheap temp until we get a real QB.

Houston and some new guy.

And the defense had only a day to scheme them.

Once the Chargers figured out how to defend the read option, Daniel's day was over. He's garbage too. Like Matt Flynn, unfortunately we have a guy who overperformed because of a defense that didn't know how to gameplan for him.

.

My view of Chase today: He did really well with the first "however many" scripted plays. After that, he struggled when things changed. He's a top 5 backup QB at the top-end.

It's interesting: we all know the value of a franchise QB, but some want to ditch our 93-rating QB and allocate savings to other (less important) positions. These are contrary ideas.

I'm perfectly aware Alex Smith is not popular on this board so I'm under no illusion that can ever change.

And that's the bottom line.

The real question should be "Which guy gives you a better chance to build SB team while grooming a stud QB?" Not "Do you want 6 wins or 9 wins?"

In fairness, he can comfortably lean back in the "nope, too small a sample size" chair... but the fact is that we've twice now watched Daniel be just as productive and even gutsier with his choices than Smith has been in almost two years.

Its not an advocacy for Daniel as teh savior, its more of an indictment against Smith... when your backup creates this much doubt, you're not worth 16 million per, period.

Exactly. Why pay $16 million for that garbage QB when you can get 90 percent of the play for 25 percent of the pay?

Alex Smith is not a franchise QB. His QB rating is a mirage propped up by empty stats.

He's an adequate NFL starter, no more. Unfortunately, he's paid like more.

Pretty much.

As a KU fan, I pretty much hate the booger eater; but I just don't know that he's that much better or worse than the money-pit we've got at QB. And that's sad stuff.

Yep. It's like saying "Jason Vargas is a solid pitcher so why complain about him being your ace?"

Very.

Completed first 7 passes then our WRs took over.

It would be more like saying: "We're going nowhere with Jason Vargas as our ace. Let's replace him with Liam Hendricks, and lose games while drafting young pitchers until we finally find our ace"

Interesting. The Royals lost a bunch of games, found their ace high in the draft Grienke and flipped him for ended up Shields, Escobar, and Cain and went to the world series. You might be on to something here.

There's no one player on a baseball team who is as important to the outcome of a season as the QB is to a football team, so there's no way to make the comparison individually.

QB=Pitching Rotation generally is about right.

Alex Smith is the equivalent of what the Brewers rolled out there last year. It wasn't awful. It was about the 20th best rotation in baseball. But it was not good enough to be a playoff team or a serious contender for the world title.

I'd think someone who pays such close attention to production compared to salary and overall value when evaluating baseball would apply the same standard to the NFL.

I'd also expect someone as plugged into advanced metrics in MLB to not throw out the NFL's equivalent of Batting Average as THE key stat by which to judge a QB.

Of course the only reason this thread was made is because of the alma mater of the QB.

Hey my bad if anyone thought I was advocating for Chase. I'm advocating a shit QB for 4 million per, versus a shit QB for 18 million.

Wanna know why I haven't given up on Alex yet? Because my choices are CHUEFS football or most likely no football. FML

Chase Daniel played like Alex Smith today.

I bet you're the sort of savage that would advocate dropping Bowe's $14 mil/per contract for some other average ass WR at 1/4 the cost too, huh?

I haven't given up on him, either.

I know there will be many moments of lulz to come.

Dance for me, clown.

Actually, the circumstances of being able to walk from that with no penalty I absolutely would right now. Then I'd give that money to Jeremy Maclin.

Or chip it in on Houston. Yeah, that's what I'd do. I'll take Houston over Hali and Bowe.