Alex Smith's 2nd year looks alot like Trent Green's 2nd yr w/Chiefs
 

stat-wise and Because we are the Chiefs and DKTM

Trent Green 2002 (32 years old)
287/470 - 61.1% 3,690 yards 26 TDs 13 INTs

Alex Smith 2014 (30 years old)
303/464 - 65.3% 3,265 yards 18 TDs 6 INTs

Well sans the TDs but Green only had 17 in 2001 and Smith had 23 in 2013.

:popcorn:

And Alex probably isn't anywhere near Trent's yards per attempt or per completion.

Trent passed my eye test. Alex has not.
or Casesel, which I thought was a turd 1/2 through year 2. I don't need stats to tell me when/if a QB blows. (not directed at you OP...just stating it in general)

2002 Trent Green: 1st in YPA, 5th in TDs, 9th in YPG. Firmly a top 10 QB.

2014 Alex Smith: 24th in YPA, 19th in TDs, 22nd in YPG. Firmly a bottom third QB.

You are incorrect.

Not as much risk (INTs), not as much reward (TDs).. but that's no surprise with Smith.

Interesting comparison though.

Let's have a look at the starting OL for Trent in 2002...

LT - Willie Roaf - 11 time pro-bowl player
LG - Brian Waters - 6 time pro-bowler
C - Casey Wiegmann - 1 time pro-bowler and all around solid
RG - Will Shields - 12 time pro-bowler
RT - John Tait - remember him to be very solid, no?

... shall we look at the 2014 line? lol... no.. don't think that will be necessary.

Perhaps we could compare Alex Smith to Steve DeBerg next. I bet his stats look even better!

This comparison will not end well.

KC had the top scoring offense and the 4th most yardage in 2002. KC was 16th and 25 this season in those categories.

KC had the 11th most passing yards in the NFL in 2002.

KC was ranked 29th this season.

Passing production has gone up league wide a lot. A relative comparison to other teams is the best measurement, and he falls way short.

It would be a more realistic comparison... a mediocre QB being carried by a good defense and running game while routinely throwing less than 200 yards.

I guess the other point of this too is that what we saw the first two years of Trent Green in KC (relatively same age as Alex) looked a lot different than the next few years for him. Can we hope for similar improvement from Alex, even if the ceiling isn't going to be Green?

Old NFL vs. New NFL

Throw the defenses in there as a comparison as well.

Yup. This is like bragging that you bought a dvd player for 250. Yardage inflation. Only a handful of 4000 yard passers 10 years ago.

This.

But Trent did have about the best offensive line ever

And the worst defense in football.

If Smith throws 8 more TD's.....the Chiefs have a game this weekend, maybe a bye.

I was just going bring this up. Because I'm sure there is noticeable difference.

We also had arguably the best running back in the NFL that year. 21 TD's in 14 games for the Priest!!

Yet, Trent still had 26 touchdowns. If Jamaal Charles had 21 touchdowns in 14 games, the Alex homers would use that as an excuse as to why Alex could only muster a 15 TD season.

Like Tebowites they Smithites use whatever is available at the time.

Just remember, if you bitch about him having no line, you're acting the same way you did with Matt Cassel.

BUT IT'LL BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME!

No, it really doesn't. At all.

This would actually hurt your cause, wouldn't it? meaning, worse defense = offense has to do more = will have more production

I don't know.. too lazy to see how good or bad your D was back then..

None of it really matters. Thread is as useless as all the vag bleeding about Smith is.. doesn't matter.. Smith will be your QB until he isn't. Not my decision to make or yours.

Going to be a long, redundant offseason of futile whining... :popcorn:

That has absolutely nothing to do with this conversation, dope.


As for the data, their rating is about the same so they were probably about the same in terms of value.

I see a superior QB playing in a league 12 years ago that wasn't as geared towards offenses.

Some key points when making this comparison:

Many have already mentioned the change in league-wide approach and passing yardage. That's a big factor. It's a much more pass-happy league now than it was then. Trent was 7th in passing yardage with that season. He would have been 15th this season. Big difference. There were 4 4000 yard passers in 2002. There were 11 this year.

But let's talk about YPA. Trent Green averaged 7.85 YPA which is almost a full yard better than Alex Smith this year and WAS THE TOP YPA IN THE LEAGUE. Smith ranked 24th this year with his paltry 7.03 YPA.

Trent Green did this with Eddie Kennison as his top WR and Marc Boerigter as his No. 2 WR, so it's not like he had a premium stable of stallions to throw the ball to, either. (He did, however, have Tony Gonzalez - though Kelce topped Gonzalez in catches, yards, and yards/catch).

Here you go with rating = value = wins again. SMFH.

I do wish we had that ol still though.

The numbers look similar if you don't compare them to the rest of the league.

Trent Green had the 4th highest QB rating in 2002 with that 92.6. Alex Smith was 13th with 93.4.

Compared to his league, Trent Green's performance was a standout performance. Compared to his league, Alex Smith was mediocre.

LMAO

When KC traded for Alex, I wrote a post about how I would have been more worried about playing KC if they had gotten Tebow rather than Alex.

I stand by that.

Ah, it's inspiring to know that we're just hoping and praying our $17mil/per QB can some day ascend to the level of Trent Green.

I have a feeling he's really going to turn it on in year ten! That's when a lot of young guys finally start to "get it".

The fan base is satisfied with 8-8 type records

Now this would be a valid point: comparing them vs the league median.


dls6501: Here you go with rating = value = wins again. SMFH. As you can see above DLS, there was a simple way to challenge my point.

Denver didn't win games because Tebow could light it up throwing the ball. They won with the formula of keeping games close with good defense, special teams, and running the ball. But when Denver would get down by more than 10 points it was generally a disaster. Oh btw as you may recall the Chiefs beat the Broncos the last week of the season in Denver the year Tebow quarterbacked the team. Tebow threw for a whopping 60 yards. Nice kid but he didn't have the skills to be a NFL quarterback.

That aside, Tebowites made tons of excuses for Tebow poor play.

Sounds familiar...

Your point was challenged in the other thread, and you ignored it.

Simply put, Alex's passer rating is an absolute mirage which is inflated by his high completion percentage and lack of throwing interceptions....where as other high passer ratings are due to touchdown passes and other forms of actual production.

Alex is 13th in passer rating. He's 23rd in total QBR. Split it down the middle and call him the 18th best QB in the league if you like.

I wouldn't exactly call that a "challenge" since research on the topic doesn't distinguish **how** you derive your rating.


If you can find something that does segment it by YPA vs low int %, I'll definitely read it.

Alex behind that OL would have 30 TD's. Hell a lot of QB's would have 30 TD's with that OL.

Woah, woah, woah.

Let's not start talking crazy. 30 TD's is two a game for our gunslinger.

Which makes him a second tier quarterback at best. The kind that teams generally keep around only until they find one that's better.

In today's environment, or that one? In the 2002 environment, I strongly doubt that.

In today's environment, Jamaal Charles probably runs for 1800-2000 yards and Knile Davis adds 500-600. I'd suspect most of the TD production would go there.

Alex would have a lot more opportunities to take deep shots after play-action, though...

Sounds pretty much correct to me.

I am not agreeing or disagreeing that Alex is the 18th best QB in the NFL.

But I will disagree with the idea that the 18th best QB in the NFL is considered a second tier QB. The second tier is for players like Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger. The 18th best QB couldnt hold these player's jock straps.

Isn't it okay to make note of the crap offensive line? Also not much in the receiving corps? Sure, Alex Smith is not great by any means. I just feel that it's hard to make an honest evaluation considering the other factors. Most everyone thought he looked great in the playoff game. He has obviously regressed since then but I wonder if he can get back to that with the proper talent around him. Is it okay to be rational and look at all the factors? Alex Smith is no great QB by any means. But neither do I think that he's the flaming turd that the irrational haters think.

Also, Alex Smith is no Trent Green. Green was definitely a better QB.

Romo and Ben had pretty great years as well. They're probably still career second tier guys; but can elevate their game and have tier one seasons.

Alex isn't capable of that.

Don't knock Kennison. As I recall he had 2 or 3 straight 1000 yards (or close to it) receiving seasons. He was a 1st rounder that didn't do so well in his first couple of stops. But make no mistake, he was a good WR.

I'm not saying Tebow was a good QB.

However, he had 6 fourth quarter comebacks in 14 starts.

Alex has 14 fourth quarter comebacks in 105 starts.

You just made me sad.

What! We're paying $17mil/yr for Smith? I did not realize it was that much. We sure aren't getting our money's worth. :banghead:

More appropriate comparison... Russell Wilson has 9 in half as many starts. More importantly... Has 14 game winning drives vs. Alex smith's 16. Not good for a QB whose MO his entire career is keeping games close.

Not knocking Eddie at all. I thiink he and Bowe are pretty comparable guys, actually.

Neither probably appreciated as much during their good years as they should have been.

meh.. technically, KC paid 4.6 mil in 2014 for Smith. (cap hit).. That's the part that matters. Next season, he will count 15.5 against the cap.. and that is when you can bang your head against the wall if he is not earning it. He earned his 4.6 behind this shit OL this year, lol.

That's wishful thinking considering his history. Smith had a good offensive line in San Francisco and in his best overall he only managed 17 that's basically one per game. The following which might have been even better he only had 13 in ten games. At that rate even if he started the last six games he might of reached 20.

Something like $27mil between him and Bowe this season.

Cool stuff.

Technically, you are a ****ing moron. Alex doesn't sign his contract without getting $18M upfront. They paid him $19M this year... "technically." Or, as I like to think about it, more than $1M for every TD thrown.

none of this refutes a single point I made... suck my dick bitch.

Yep. A QB could have taken a short nap before deciding to throw the ball behind that 2002 line...compared to the sieve we have now for a line. If we had a comparable line now this offense improves dramatically. In today's NFL that line would still dominate.

Yes, it kind of does. You said KC technically paid him $4.6M.

I know you are a dumbass and all and Alex is on your speed dial, so please jump off the top of the Golden Gate Bridge.

Kennison was much faster iirc.

He probably has no connections at all to San Fran, much like he has no connections to KC.

Just floats around to whatever team Alex is on or will be on.

The only thing that matters is how much did it count against the cap this year. Can you ladies stop your catfight and just tell me that figure?

Yeah, and KC WRs had no TDs that game either (3-7 loss with Denver having over 200 yds rushing, crazy) ... but the next weekend - this happened.

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Actually he did refute what you said.

How the **** does that matter?

He was already on the team with a cap number. They paid him MORE to lower his number and they did what with that extra "saved" money?

Alex Smith was paid $19M to throw 18 TD passes this year. The End.

True but what happened the following week in the divisional round?

A cool $1.055 mil/per TD. Not a bad gig if you can get it.

Mods, I think this is ban worthy.

















:D

Oh Trent. You're bringing back such great memories with this thread.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-1...600/crying.jpg

Deeper dive into the numbers shows just how similar they aren't...


Alex Smith 2014

Passes thrown behind the line (24.8% of his attempts)
91-115 (79.1%) for 491 yards (4.27 ypa) and 5 TD
Passes thrown 1-10 yards (53.9%)
163-250 (65.2%) for 1780 yards (7.12 ypa), 10 TD and 1 INT
Passes thrown 11-20 yards (17.7%)
45-80 (56.3%) for 860 yards (10.75 ypa), 2 TD and 3 INT
Passes thrown 21-30 yards (2.4%)
1-11 (9.1%) for 26 yards (2.27 ypa)
Passes thrown 31-40 yards (1.3%)
1-6 (16.7%) for 41 yards (6.83) and 2 INT
Passes thrown 41+ yards (0.2%)
1-1 (100%) for 48 yards



Trent Green 2002

Passes thrown behind the line (20.2% of his attempts)
80-95 (84.2%) for 640 yards (6.74 ypa) and 3 TD
Passes thrown 1-10 yards (38.3%)
114-180 (63.3%) for 1019 yards (5.66 ypa), 5 TD and 4 INT
Passes thrown 11-20 yards (27.9%)
72-131 (55.0%) for 1243 yards (13.25 ypa), 12 TD and 1 INT
Passes thrown 21-30 yards (6.8%)
15-32 (49.9) for 424 yards (13.25 ypa), 4 TD and 2 INT
Passes thrown 31-40 yards (4.9%)
3-23 (13.0%) for 168 yards (7.3 ypc), 1 TD and 4 INT
Passes thrown 41+ yards (1.9%)
3-9 (33.3%) for 196 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT



78.7% of Smith's attempts (365 of 464), 70% of his total yardage (2271 of 3265) and 88.2% of his touchdowns (15 of 17) came on passes that traveled 10 yards or less.

58.5% of Green's attempts (275 of 470), 45% of his total yardage (1659 of 3690) and 30.8% of his touchdowns (8 of 26) came on passes that traveled 10 yards or less.

Yeah... I mean, it's all horseshit speculation. But it all starts up front with your OL. Alex is not a gunslinging phenomenon, but he's very efficient when he gets in a rhythm and can trust that his pass pro will allow him enough time to hit a 2nd or 3rd read. If the pass pro consistently can not, then he will quick hit or hesitate and scramble into nothing too often. Even then, he usually won't screw up too often.. but he also won't do enough to elevate the shit team around him.

Some QBs are great at improv... Alex isn't... he relies on being in rhythm. That means, you have to put a decent OL in front of him.

Yeah, I get your point. Still, you're not as good with the numbers as you think you are. Unless that signing bonus money only counts against the first year of the contract your argument doesn't make sense. Either way, I agree that he's making way too much for the performance on the field.

Total failure as Brady lit up that defense for 6 TDs... they had their moment in the sun though, even if only for a week.

What the ****?????

What does his signing bonus counting against his cap number throughout his contract have to do with anything?

He got $19M this year. What don't you understand?

http://www.spotrac.com/
http://overthecap.com/

Indeed they did. :donks:

Crank the wayback machine and enjoy... funny part is at the end when they send it to the field "And here's Joe Montana with OJ"

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I'm asking if you're counting his entire signing bonus into that $19mil number? If so, that's dishonest as a signing bonus is divided into the years of the contract. That's also why I was asking what were the actual figures because I DON'T KNOW AND I AM CURIOUS. Are you saying that his signing bonus is $14 or 15 mil/year? That's crazy and I don't buy it.

Let me give you an example using hypothetical figures since nobody wants to lay out the actual numbers. Let's say, just for hypothetical argument's sake, that Smith was being paid a 5 year contract for 60 million and the portion of that contract that was the signing bonus was $15 million. Then you should only count $3mil of signing bonus plus the regular salary for THIS YEAR.

I know I'm arguing semantics but I hate the dishonest arguments that go on around here a lot lately. Let's at least have honest discussions rather than hyperbole.

How the **** is adding every penny of what someone was paid dishonest?

Are you BlackBob?

Oh for crying out loud, man. What are you, 5 years old? Grow up.

It's a legit question because I had this same argument with him earlier...

Alex Smith was written a check for $18M as soon as he signed the contract and he was also given a $1M base salary this year. That totals $19M for this year.

So again, how is saying that he was paid $19M this year dishonest?

Thank you. So his bonus is 3.6 mil per year. Geez, why is that so hard for some to understand? Of course, this also means that if he were to play only 3 years then that would be adjusted to 6 mil per year.

If we're talking actual cash payments, Smith was paid $19M this year. $12M next year. $14M the next year.