Will Mahomes Break the All-Time Single-Season Passing TD Record?
 

Mahomes currently has 37 TD passes through 11 games. He's one TD pass off the record through 11 (held by Tom Brady through 11 games). To break Manning's record of 55 for the season he'll need roughly 4 TDs per game down the stretch.

Two games against Oakland = 8-10 TDs (though whether we have the 1st seed locked up and he even plays in week 17 remains to be seen).

Chargers he has shown he can put up 4 TDs on in their place.

Ravens at home and Seahawks in Seattle are going to be tougher.

What say you Chiefsplanet? Does he make it?

Edit: Here are the week-by-week records...

After Game 10: Brady 38
After Game 11: Brady 39
After Game 12: Brady/Manning 41
After Game 13: Brady/Manning 45
After Game 14: Manning 47
After Game 15: Manning 51
After Game 16: Manning 55

No, but he'll hold the career passing TD record when he hangs them up.

Nope.

I think he misses it by a few!

No but the Lombardi will make a nice consolation prize

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">5,277 passing yards<br>53 passing touchdowns<br><br>That&#39;s what Patrick Mahomes is on pace for this season. �� <a href="https://t.co/Wnd83i4hPc">pic.twitter.com/Wnd83i4hPc</a></p>&mdash; Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) <a href="https://twitter.com/Chiefs/status/1066030240948879360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 23, 2018</a></blockquote>
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I think he ends up with 50-55. I’m afraid we will go conservative with some big leads in some of these games.

He's currently tied for the 22nd most single-season passing TDs in NFL history, and he's one of only 12 QBs in NFL history who has hit 37. And we've still got five games to play.

Rk Player Year TD
1 Peyton Manning 2013 55*
2 Tom Brady 2007 50*
3 Peyton Manning 2004 49
4 Dan Marino 1984 48
5 Drew Brees 2011 46
6 Aaron Rodgers 2011 45
7 Dan Marino 1986 44
8 Drew Brees 2012 43
9 Matthew Stafford 2011 41
10 Kurt Warner 1999 41
11 Andrew Luck 2014 40
12 Aaron Rodgers 2016 40
13 Tom Brady 2011 39*
14 Drew Brees 2013 39
15 Daunte Culpepper 2004 39
16 Brett Favre 1996 39
17 Peyton Manning 2014 39*
18 Aaron Rodgers 2012 39
19 Brett Favre 1995 38
20 Aaron Rodgers 2014 38
21 Matt Ryan 2016 38
22 Drew Brees 2016 37
23 Patrick Mahomes 2018 37
24 Peyton Manning 2012 37*


* - Involved cheating.

Gonna say yes, awesome as he has been he is still a work in progress... he will continue to get better as a first year starter as the season rolls on

He hasnt peaked yet, a scary thought for all future opponents

The seasons that are the most comparable IMO to Mahomes are 1999 with Warner - his second season with the Rams. Warner threw 41, Mahomes will blow that out of the water.

Marino threw 48 in his second season. If he gets that, which he should, thats damn impressive. I think 55 might be out of reach.

No. I think they'll have home field locked up by week 17 and Andy will rest Mahomes in the last game.

Separate question that I'm sure will spawn its own thread at some point but do you play Mahomes if this is the case? Do we really want our starters having three weeks off? Does it even matter?

Career ? Maybe

Season? No, at least it's not how I feel. That's averaging 4 per game over the next 5 games!

This ^

The list really illustrates how unique Dan Marino was, and to some extend also Brett Favre. It also shows how Manning, Brees, and Brady are the big three now, and exaggerate the NFL's evolution toward the passing game.

Mahomes is unique in that he looks to be joining those big three, but at an incredibly young age. They were putting those numbers up until their 30s.

The future's so bright...(puts on sunglasses).

I want Pat, Kelce, Hunt and Reek in sweats in week 17 if they don't need to be out there. The rest can play. Don't need the dirty, shit-ass, nothing to play for Raiders to have a chance to ruin our postseason.

No

Actually playing pathetic teams like the Raiders hurt his chances. The Chargers, Ravens & Seahawks games are his best chance to throw 5-6 TD passes.

Agreed

FYP

Andy may not rest Mahomes in that case. If he did he's have 3 weeks off and thats too much.

rest would = play a quarter or a half and pull him

It's possible, but I don't think he does it this year but he will eventually. He has to average almost 4 TD passes a game from here on out. Possible, but unlikely. I think he gets to 50 though, which would be absolutely amazing still.

Andy let Hunt get the rushing title in week 17 last year.

If Pats close, Andy might let him play week 17 to try and get the record.

Thinking the competition isn't good enough to warrant it. Though I could see Andy pushing the peddle to get his new son the record too.

I’d want the starters to play at least a few drives week 17 regardless of what is clinched. That’s a long time to build up rust without game reps if you don’t play from week 16-divisional round.

Honestly i was thinking this too. If he's say, 1-2 TD's short they may let him go.

I think he'll have to play week 17 because the Patriots will be breathing down our necks for 1st seed. We end up with the same record then we go to foxboro.

Im not sure how I feel about resting your starters in week 17 when you have a first round bye. It just seems that it may be too much rest and will take the team out of their groove. On the other hand I like that we won't be losing a key starter to injury if we rest them.

Back to the thread topic, I can see Mahomes getting to 50 TDs even if he doesn't play week 17.

Damn. Good point. IF we don't hold back? Yes. Absolutely. I hope he does. I'd like for him to get SOMETHING out of this first season since the MVP has all but been decided.

I agree.

I voted yes, but after thinking about how Reid will not run up the score. As soon as we get ahead of the Raiders by 21, he'll have the offense stop trying and we won't keep scoring.

Chiefs record of "rest before playoff game"-victory is shit.

Do not want.

I voted Yes because I'm going to Will Mahomes to 56.

It’s going to be very close. With this shitty D I can see it happening.

Top man!

Truth. I can think of 5 or 6 plays off the top of my head that easily could've been TDs if he was just a little calmer and reeled it in a bit. No idea if he eventually ended up with a passing TD on those drives. Plus there were times we ran it in with Hunt when he could've easily passed it in. So they aren't even trying to pad his stats and he still has absurd numbers.

Me either. Even if the team wins, I feel like it just upsets the rhythm or mojo of the starters. It seems like any time we rest starters it results in a playoff loss.

Of course, it may just seem that way because almost every playoff game results in a loss.

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I'm hoping he can get 50.. that is still quite an achievement in his first year starting.. an unbelievable achievement really.

I would have to assume that would lock up AFC Offensive POY.

The MVP is Brees’s to lose right now. He may well lose it, but his interception numbers are too low to ignore right now.

Even the biggest Chiefs homers have to admit that the Mahomes-Reid combo with these weapons is better than we ever could’ve hoped for or dreamed of.

In our case, the grind IS the benefit.

I want either 56 or 58 because I have Derrick Johnson and Derrick Thomas jerseys, and I think it's good mojo in the playoffs to wear one of them if it matches.

We face 3 defenses that are in the top-10 in terms of points allowed.

1. Raven
4. Chargers
7. Seahawks

Good news is that we play the Raiders twice with their crappy defense.


Andy will have to be ok with running up the score against the Raiders for Mahomes to have much of a chance.

Against the Rams, we had basically the same team we had last season, minus Albert Wilson. Mahomes went for nearly 500 yards and 6 TD's.

We can torch all 3 of those defenses

The sky is the limit

LMAOLMAO * - Involved cheating.

With 5 TDs against the Raiders next week Mahomes will own the record for most TD passes after 12 games.

I don't think he'll break it. He "might" get 50+, but I don't think he'll get the all-time record.

If the refs would let our tackles choke hold defenders like they did for Manning, then yes. Unfortunately, our line gets flagged for far less than what they did.

Here’s the list of the top 3 corners from each team we have left to play in the regular season...


Gareon conley
Rashad Melvin
Daryl Worley
Brandon Carr
Jimmy Smith
Marlon Humphrey
Desmond King
Casey Hayward
Michael Davis
Tre Flowers
Shaquille Griffin
Justin Coleman

I think PM15 has a good chance of breaking the record.

Amazing that he should get into the top ten ALL TIME after next week.

4 Dan Marino 1984 48

This is why I don't care, it was a record at the time. Big ****ing deal.
I would rather have Mahomes have a bradshaw or montana like career path than marino.

Needs 15 TDs in four games.

Gonna be tough but he's capable.

He needed to pad out a few more TDs against this Raider D, it's tough to get 4 TDs every week no matter how good you are. I think he gets like 52.

Per your prediction, he is now in the top ten ALL TIME. Cigars all around.

The games need to be close, closer than we'd all like, for it to happen. Andy is NEVER going to run up the score. After watching teams like the Chargers and Saints run up the score on lesser opponents to pad stats I'm actually ok with the way Andy handles winning with class. Yes, I want him to go for the throat and put the game out of reach but once that carotid is punctured its ok to let em bleed to death.

It's more attainable now that we do not have as good of a running game... We will throw more.

Just to keep a tally, Patrick Mahomes II has now eclipsed the best seasons produced by Matt Ryan (38), Brett Favre (38), Daunte Culpepper (39), and Andrew Luck (40). He's tied with the best seasons ever produced by Kurt Warner and Matthew Stafford (41).

If this was Mt. Everest, he'd be pulling into that final camp to prepare for his assault on the summit.

1 Peyton Manning 2013 55*
2 Tom Brady 2007 50*
3 Peyton Manning 2004 49
4 Dan Marino 1984 48
5 Drew Brees 2011 46
6 Aaron Rodgers 2011 45
7 Dan Marino 1986 44
8 Drew Brees 2012 43
9 Kurt Warner 1999 41
9 Matthew Stafford 2011 41
9 Patrick Mahomes II 2018 41

* - Involved cheating.

Where was Mahomes playing in 2016? He threw 41 then?

Ravens- 4 TDs
Seahags- 3 TDs
Chargers 4 TDs
Faders 4 TD's and 1 rushing.

56 passing TD's and 3 Rushing

Greatest season by a QB in NFL History.

I think he gets over 50. I think he avg 3/game from here on out...giving him 53 total.

I also don't really care though, just commenting for sake of discussion. I would just like for him to lead this team to a SB. If he snags a couple of records along the way, great.

A 4000yd passer w/ 30TD's was considered a great season for a QB. Mahomes has revised the criteria of what makes a great season in just his 1st yr starting.

5000yds and 50TD's are video game numbers. His season has been insane.

I just hope that people won't freak out if he doesn't produce those same numbers next season. He's only going to get better, but that doesn't essentially mean the numbers will be greater. He sometimes needs to learn to take what's given to him. Mahomes lost the Rams game because he tried to do too much. Sure blame it on the D for allowing 54pts, but if Mahomes doesn't turn it over 5x, the Chiefs win that game by 2-3 scores.

Corrected. Sometimes his passes distort the space-time continuum.

Updating the watch. Patrick has blown past Kurt Warner's best year, and the fluke year by Matthew Stafford. He's got the potential to make a major move up the charts this next week.

1 Peyton Manning 2013 55*
2 Tom Brady 2007 50*
3 Peyton Manning 2004 49
4 Dan Marino 1984 48
5 Drew Brees 2011 46
6 Aaron Rodgers 2011 45
7 Dan Marino 1986 44
8 Drew Brees 2012 43
8 Patrick Mahomes II 2018 43**

* - Involved Cheating
** - Involves unparalleled greatness

If he'll chase it no matter what, come hell or high water, he'll make it.

I thought our running game was fine this past game. Even the announcers were saying how the running game was the only thing working for our offense at one point.

Mahomy back in the #1 spot for yards at 4300

Updating the watch. Patrick passed the second-best years of both Dan Marino and Drew Brees. He's now sitting at the #6 spot and is well positioned to have the best non-cheating season in league history.

1 Peyton Manning 2013 55*
2 Tom Brady 2007 50*
3 Peyton Manning 2004 49
4 Dan Marino 1984 48
5 Drew Brees 2011 46
6 Aaron Rodgers 2011 45
6 Patrick Mahomes II 2018 45**


* - Involved Cheating
** - Involves working around the worst defense in the league that won't let him on the field.