Playing with cap #'s for 2019
 

So...

using Spotrac and assuming their numbers are correct...and knowing that this defense needs a complete overhaul-

It looks like our estimated cap # is just shy of $152m, with $42.5m free.

But-
releasing Houston post June 1st frees up $15m (with 5.6m dead money)
That would nearly be enough to pay Ford on it's own, for example. Not saying that's necessarily what I'd do with it.

Releasing Berry post June 1st would save just about $9.5m (with $7m dead money)

Releasing Sorensen post June 1st saves $3.7 Million (with $1m dead cap money).

That's roughly another $28m right there, putting the team at $69m under the estimated cap.

That's a fair amount of dead money, but still. With a defense this bad...you could fill some serious holes and revamp quickly.

I tend towards filling holes with NFL FA's and drafting for depth and development; assuming a draftee will pan out is dangerous, I think.

RELEASE EVERYONE!!!!!!!!

That's not what I'm saying.

I like Houston; but he's real expensive for half a season to 2/3rds of a season's availability and post 30, I doubt that's going to improve.

Berry has played one 3/4 of a game in two years.

Sorensen blows.

IF you wanted to move to a 4-3, we'd be in position to do so, for example. IF you want to stay with a 3-4, you can tag Ford and go get a stud inside rusher to sit opposite Jones. And still extend Hill. Just saying, there are options.

I guess nobody's interested in that conversation.

* on the defense
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Help me with a little context:

Tyreek Hill: He's under contract for 2019, but we sign him to a new deal if we wish, he could also hold out. No brainer to work something out now. Right? If its an extension then can't we keep his 2019 # relatively low?

Chris Jones: He's in the same boat as Hill.

I ask about those two because I think they are key building blocks that have waaaay outperformed the rookie contracts they are on. Frankly if we can come to deals with these guys this offseason it provides with some certainty with two good young players. If they want to play the year out then enter free agency, I guess thats fine too, but one of them would be tagged. I hope it wouldn't come to that.

Dee Ford: Ford is the only free agent to really worry about in my book. I think you keep him if at all possible but you can't let him hurt you in future years. We have every right to tag him if we must, but otherwise give this cat a fair deal and focus on rebuilding other parts of the defense.

So here are my questions:

How likely is it for the Chiefs to be able to extend Jones, Hill, and sign Ford this offseason? If they do that, would they have to to cut bait with guys like Houston and Berry? I ask because if I can swallow Houston's contract for another year maybe I do it. I don't know.

As for free Agency, a young legit FA corner or Safety would be awesome. I just don't see how we will be able to be overly active in the Free Agency market.

You can only make two June 1st cut designations.

ah, the conversation I was looking for. It's all speculation of course; but I agree completely on Hill and Jones.

I'm not sold on Ford's worth as he'll draw big money due to the sack totals but he's a liability against the run; disappears a lot, can't cover-I mean, he literally can rush the passer and that's it. Is that worth $15m plus a year? I don't know. He's a good pass rusher, real good. It's kind of like Peters-yeah, he gets INT's, but there are so many other things he doesn't do well is it worth the price of admission? I don't know. Not comparing them as people of course, I think Ford's a good guy and Peters is an asshole.

I guess it depends on who's available in FA. The 'Patriot Way' is to eschew stars and just go get good solid football players. that extra $28 would go a long way if that's the path. You could probably sign 4 solid or ascending players for that money. Or you could sign 2 stars. Still leaving money to extend your Hills and Fords and perhaps look at the OL a little bit.

Which way to go? I don't know. I'd really like to sign Landon Collins. Or Earl Thomas. Or both.

I'd like to sign whomever the best interior pass rusher available will be to put across from Jones.

A couple of 2nd tier corners...?

Yeah we have a lot of holes to try to fill on the defense, which is painfully obvious every week. We also need to try to upgrade the fat boys on the OL before our new toy takes a hit he doesn't get up from. He's taking way to many hits right now. As far as the list, get Hill and Jones inked for sure.

ah. Good to know.

Keep Houston
Cut Berry (Love the guy but he is done after this year)
Franchise Ford
Try to resign Hill
Let Jones contract play out another year (Price would be crazy high after this season. See if he can repeat)

Draft all Offensive Line and Defense

It just kills me to see K-Pass and Speaks without a true position on this defense. Two high draft picks that in the modern NFL you need to contribute to your team. I fear we are just developing them for another team. Looking ahead to the next draft, I think you have to look at the first three picks and and ask yourself what positions are you going to start them at, if not year one, then year two.

We badly need to draft corners and safeties, but I don't want to draft some DL or LB that going to sit on the bench when we could use another TE, RB, or WR to help keep the offense dynamic.

Where did you get the $152M number? It's $177M this year and projected to be somewhere around $190M for 2019.
I agree we should try to make some kind of a deal with both Jones and Hill right now. I think the Ford/Houston thing depends on which one you think is more valuable over the next couple years. Ford is playing for a contract and has back issues.
As far as fatties go, I only see LG as a must have. I thought Reiter did OK sanding in for Morse and he'd have all off season to bulk up and work on technique. Let's look at the draft for another C.
I'm OK with signing a stud FA safety. If it means parting ways with Berry, that might be the thing to do, but let's look at how he performs over the next 3 games.

Another thing to look at is if the football gods smile upon us and Sutton gets fired/retired and our new DC is a 4-3 guy. That gives a position to either Kpass of Speaks as DE.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NFL told its teams today that the 2019 salary cap is projected to be in the range of $187-to-$191.1 millon.</p>&mdash; Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1072617582690267141?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 11, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Re-sign Hill and Jones. Talk to Berry about restructuring his contract or taking a pay cut (depending on his health)

Tag Ford.

Switch to a 4-3. Move Houston to DE. Move Jones to DT. Put KPass and Soeaks at DE.

Your LBs are Ford, Hitchens and DOD.

Draft two CBs, a safety and some defensive line depth.

Spotrac's adjusted salary cap #.

Definitely extend Houston. Turn his base salary next year into signing bonus. We can practically get him for free year 1. I've said before, we have the leverage on that contract to sign him to a new deal that's much more representative of what he'd negotiate in the open market, which should be far cheaper.

Didn’t we draft Watts to be a safety???

'Revamping' the defense won't mean shit if Sutton is still here. So said 'revamping' needs to include firing Sutton, if not meh.

UFAs:
Ford (Tag)
Bailey (Let walk)
Harris (Let walk)
Conley (Re-sign)
Nelson (Let walk)
Sherman (Re-sign)
Morse (Offer prove it deal?)
Scandrick (Let walk)
Damien Williams (Re-sign)
Ware (Re-sign)
Devey (Offer prove it deal?)
Parker (Let walk)
Terrance Smith (Let walk)
De'anthony Thomas (Offer prove it deal?)
Zombo (Let walk)
Allen (Let walk)
Benjamin (Offer prove it deal?)
West (Let walk)

Tender offers on all ERFAs and RFAs.

Potential Cuts:
Daniel Sorensen
James Winchester (Snaps have looked poor this year)
Chad Henne (Cut or Extend)
Reggie Ragland (Cut or Extend)
Cameron Erving (Cut or Extend)

Extension Candidates:
Mitchell Schwartz
Xavier Williams
Chris Jones
Justin Houston
Kendall Fuller
Tyreek Hill

So in summary:
Tag (1) - Ford
Re-sign (3) - Conley, Williams, Ware
Prove-it deals (4) - Morse, Devey, Thomas, Benjamin
Extend to free up space (6-9)
Cut (2-5)

Looking at free agents, it looks to be a decent year for Running Back, Wide Receiver, O-line, Free Safety, and Pass rusher.

Free agency, we should probably be looking hard at O-line, Safety, and Interior D-Linemen.
A free agent class including Landon Collins and Matt Paradis would do wonders to shore up the roster.

Draft we will need to look at Corners, O-line, 5-techs, 3 techs, ILB. We could also have a spot at tight end.

Apparently it doesn't matter if you spend all the cap money or leave 20% because some people will tell you the league is fixed. How much you spend doesn't have any effect on the game, the refs will decide it.

Don’t forget the spirit, sometimes it there and you play and sometimes it not and you don’T.

Yes they will. The NFL is multi mega billion dollar business and like all multi mega billion dollar businesses it's corrupt.
Why would it not be? The owners didn't get mega rich by playing fair and leaving things to chance.
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Any further discussion of the "NFL is rigged" nature should result in folks getting a romper time out, because it is clearly spilling into other threads and there is no actual discussion happening.

You lost me with Ford. He’s a pure edge rusher, he should stay at DE.

I’d try to extend Hill and Jones both ASAP. Tag Ford. Keep Berry another year so long as this one ends with him healthy and playing well, but try to adjust the contract. Houston needs to probably take a pay cut but idk that it will happen.

The Chiefs are in a tricky spot—I’d like to see them keep Ford, Jones, and Houston together for 2019. It’s such a good pass rush, I’d hate to let it get away any faster than it has to. But Houston is dangerously close to being a guy that needs to be released for his current price and I’m not sure Ford can be trusted on a long term contract. Jones is a must sign imo because of all that.

I'm starting to agree.

Beat me to it. Only Jones, Ford are allowed to come back. Everyone else can go in a Chiefs estate sale.

I’m a little hesitant to say cut everyone because who knows what some of these guys might look like in a new scheme, under a new coordinator. The secondary needs tons of work regardless, but beyond that.

I know, Andy has to fire Bob first or have him retire. But what if he does? Then you’ve got quite a bit of talent sitting there to play around with as the new DC. There is little to no doubt that this defense would improve under the coordination and coaching of about any other NFL defensive mind.

I dig it

Me too.

I don't Ford has a real position in a 4-3. He's a liability in run or coverage defense, really only a plus player as a pass rusher. If you're staying in a 3-4 he makes sense to tag. otherwise, that's $15m plus you could use on an interior rusher, a couple of average to plus CB's, or an all-world S, or a couple of really good coverage LB's.

The only individuals in my mind that should be automatic gone are:

1. Bob Sutton
2. Nelson (His contract ends this year - do not resign)
3. Parker (His contract ends this year - do not resign)
4. Sorensen

Nobody in this secondary should be brought back. All of them absolutely stink.

Is Alabama’s secondary better than the Chiefs?

Eric Murray

You make some very valid points. I don't know that I re-sign Ford. He has only played one good consistent year and that is 'this year' which is very telling from a character perspective. Meaning he gets his $ then goes back to being a dumb wuss.

The Mahomes factor definitely comes into play when it comes to FA because now what FA wouldn't want to come to KC and have a legit chance to win a SB ring? My point being we can get some serious FA defensive help this offseason and to your point not take the chance of Ford hamstringing us with his contract going back to being typical dumb hurt Ford.

I think I let him walk because you have Houston under contract already; and assuming we cut Grampa Bob loose, you have personnel to run either a 3-4 front or 4-3 front (Kpass and Speaks are better physically suited to a 4-3 I think) with a pickup or two. That money could be spent on a player that fits better as a 3 down defender either way.

I'm just kicking around different scenarios.

The thing that I struggle with when it comes to letting Ford go is that I think he’s a better player than Houston at this point.

I think Kpass is traded in this offseason for a 5th round pick. I don't think they like him.

Strictly as a pass rusher I'd agree. As an all-around LB, I would disagree. Ford is a below average run defender and a miserable coverage backer. Houston actually does everything pretty well. My only issue with Houston is that he's so damned expensive for a guy that'll play 1/2 to 2/3 of a season.

Nobody is giving up a pick for a healthy scratch player.

Yeah I’d agree on that, but I’d say if we’re being truthful, the rest of this season is going to play a huge role in how that plays out. Houston needs to produce into and through the playoffs in order to keep making his check IMO. Ford needs to do the same to at least earn the tag.

As of now, I’d still love to see KC keep Ford, Houston, and Jones around for 2019. That pass rush is awesome and if they can get some other things tightened up at the back levels, they can be an extremely good team next year with all of them in tow.

I don't think we can afford to release Houston or Berry until 2020.

I think that's true. I guess the question is...do you blow it up or do you tweak it?

Meaning-If you keep Ford and pay him that $15m plus, you need to stay in a 3-4. He's not a 4-3 LB. So, that limits your new DC possibilities. Also, handicaps your available money to sign secondary help if you want to extend Hill and/or Jones, which I think you need to ASAP.

Sutton isn't a 4-3 guy so that would involve changing our DC. I imagine Reid would try to promote his son to DC to run a 4-3 and tell Sutton to retire. Then Reid could keep all of his other coaches on defense.

I also think that Jones can play DE in a 4-3.

Jones,Williams,Nnadi,Houston
Ford,Hitchens,DoD

although we might be better off letting Ford walk and drafting a 4-3 LB in the draft. The reason I put Jones at DE is his hunger to rush the QB. He tends to ignore his assignments in the running game and that really hurts us when he's inside. Putting Jones at DE lets him become our Reggie White and let's him focus on hitting the QB.

Well if they go to the 4-3, all bets are off, but I think Ford could at least play DE and still be a very good pass rusher.

I’m expecting that they will attempt to sign a safety named either Thomas or Collins this March and that is going to make their decisions on the front 4 pretty interesting.

I think so too, regarding Collins or Thomas.

Ford would end up being a guy that doesn't play 3 downs in a 4-3. $15m plus is a lot of money for a guy you have to take off the field on certain downs.

I like him, I'm not dead set against it, I just wonder if it's a good value.

Here’s the way I look at it—if the alternative to keeping Ford is starting Speaks and he’s playing at his current level, that’s a bad situation. Sure he may be better against the run, but to this point he doesn’t offer much of any pass rush capability.

I’d pay Ford to stick around and be your best edge rusher until Speaks or someone else shows that they can provide minimal drop off in that department, which might be in 2020 if Speaks shows great improvement next year. Worst case scenario, you’ve got really solid depth at DE where as you said, Houston is liable to miss games anyways.

Regarding the 3-4, I’d like to see what Speaks can do rushing from a 3 technique. Maybe what he lacks in strength compared to Allen Bailey can be made up for with speed. At least a 3rd down option that I figured would have already been looked at, but you know, Sutton gonna Sutton...

Fair point. I just don't want the contract to preclude a Collins/Thomas signing. The secondary is the biggest problem, IMO.

It happens all the time and it's based on "potential".