ChiefsPlanet - Cardinals ****The Official 2019 STL Cardinals Thread****

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****The Official 2019 STL Cardinals Thread**** (https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=320239)

****The Official 2019 STL Cardinals Thread****

Cardinals announce 25-man Opening Day roster for the 2019 season.

Spoiler!

2019 Opening Day Line up

Spoiler!

Won the Central Division. Won the NLDS.

NLDS Playoff roster

Spoiler!

NLDS Playoff Game 1 starting lineup

Spoiler!

NLCS Game One Starting lineup

Spoiler!

First. As it should be

Did they drop the "s" from their name like Stanford did?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dartgod (Post 14022124)

Did they drop the "s" from their name like Stanford did?

No, you can see in the OP the title is "Cardinals", not "Cardinal". Can you please add the "s" good sir?

Where are you getting that projected rotation from? No way Wainwright isn’t in the rotation until he gets hurt again.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi (Post 14022638)

Where are you getting that projected rotation from? No way Wainwright isn’t in the rotation until he gets hurt again.

I think it was a Goold STL Today column. Just googled it. Didn't vet or give my opinion etc. Just a placeholder.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 14022892)

I think it was a Goold STL Today column. Just googled it. Didn't vet or give my opinion etc. Just a placeholder.

Gotcha. We all know Wacha will get hurt at some point this year too. Wonder if they’re planning on Reyes as a bullpen arm? Hudson? Gant? Lots of starting options this year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi (Post 14023145)

Gotcha. We all know Wacha will get hurt at some point this year too. Wonder if they’re planning on Reyes as a bullpen arm? Hudson? Gant? Lots of starting options this year.

Hudson seems like a better fit as a starter.

So does Reyes even though he's going to have limited innings, Listen to one podcast that went over this........the theory is that if you put Reyes in the bullpen, you limit his innings and give some help to the team where its badly needed. Their downside was injury. Does he get warmed up properly? Will he be honest with some tweaks before they become time missing injuries? He will come out throwing hard, does that make him more susceptible to injury.

The best way Reyes could help this team this year is get up to speed as a starter by the playoffs. Have the innings left to pitch 3-4 times. If that happens and he is performing like he has in the past........ Martinez/Flaherty/Mikolas/Reyes will be as good a starting staff as any team in the playoffs.

Man do we need this guy to live up to his potential

Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently called this upcoming season “huge” for Reyes. It’s easy to see why. The range of outcomes is virtually limitless for him in 2019. He could never pitch again. He could be one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. Neither is an overstatement.

“There’s reason for hope. When you boil it down, he just hasn’t been healthy for two years,” Mozeliak said. “The reason we’re still so excited is, when he’s healthy, he has an electric arm.”

The lean muscle Reyes has added to his square 6-foot-4 frame is there, but the fat he shed is more obvious. It shows most easily in his face, which can be puffy with baby fat when he’s not in workout mode.

When Reyes first showed up at Next Level Fitness in November, he was a doughy 248 pounds. With spring training approaching, he’s down to 233 even after adding several pounds of muscle.

This winter’s workouts centered on strengthening and training the specific arm and torso muscles that could bear the most strain when he starts pitching again. He has thrown a handful of bullpen sessions already. His exercise physiologist, Hugo Botero, manipulates his arm and shoulder in various postures, probing for weakness. The idea is to strengthen both the muscles and the connective tissues, which are often the breaking points for pitchers. The goal is to maintain strength and control at each awkward stage of the throwing motion.

“If we can train and sustain in most of the positions players get hurt in, if he ever gets to those positions and he’s under fatigue, his shoulder knows exactly what to do,” Botero said. “We used to think we wanted to avoid those positions.”

Reyes said he feels as strong as he has at any time in his life, but he admits he said similar things a year ago. Maybe this will be the season he stays healthy and shows the world what his powerful right arm can do.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For those wondering about the strength and health of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/STLCards?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#STLCards</a> pitcher Alex Reyes’s right shoulder, just listen for the thwack in this video: <a href="https://t.co/z70w144XZq">pic.twitter.com/z70w144XZq</a></p>— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) <a href="https://twitter.com/markasaxon/status/1088232505038303232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 24, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Should have traded him for a bat when they had the chance IMO

What the hell is gonna happen with Harper and Machado?

I mean, I get the Cards don't want to sign either to a huge long term deal, but as this lingers on at some point the value make it worth it right?

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14080987)

Owners are now at the point of open collusion on free agents, which is going to lead to a work stoppage in a few years.

The irony is Harper is now someone you're likely to get surplus value on in FA precisely because everyone else is purposefully colluding to remove themselves from the market.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 14081301)

How are they colluding?

I mean, we've seen evidence that these huge long term deals don't really ever work out that well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 14080812)

Man do we need this guy to live up to his potential

It doesn't matter how healthy he gets. What matters is how healthy he stays. I've said in every damn one of these threads for 3 years that if the kid keeps !@#$ing scalpula loading, he's going to keep breaking down. He simply cannot stay healthy doing that.

So just watch his delivery and if he's late off still with his arm trailing, you'll know that we're looking at another injury.

But again - good thinking not activating and optioning the kid for rehab so we could save a year of service time there, Moe. Fantastic work.

It blows my mind how bad he is about basic service time and options shit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 14081301)

1. You have no evidence they’re colluding.

2. We’ve reached the point where the $$ is too big to make any mistake on. A $55M mistake on AJ Pollock, Dodgers can live with. But $300M on Harper? Whole diff ballgame.

3. we have no clue what offers they’re holding. The Red Sux and JD Martinez worked 3 months on their deal last winter. It was going to happen. I suspect the Phils or Mets etc are waiting out Harper.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matrix (Post 14081031)

88-74

Probably not too far off. I could see us getting into the low 90's for wins but also 78-80. Baseball has so many variables year to year. We have a lot of ifs...Will Goldy be himself in a new lineup. Will Ozuna's power numbers rebound as well as a passable left field arm? How does Bader progress offensively? What do we get out of RF both offensively and defensively? Does Mikolas follow up with another solid year both productively and as an innings eater? Can Carlos return to form and is he healthy (starter velocity was dipping)? Will Flaherty show progress, flatten or regress? What does Wacha give you? How much does A. Reyes contribute and where? Can Hicks progress with better fb command and with his off speed stuff? Can he close? Can Andrew Miller handle another full season of work after being run practically into the ground? Is this the year you see significant regression from Carpenter and/or Molina? Can DeJong up his OB numbers and cut down on his SO's? Can Molina come back healthy and contribute daily with solid D and stay within himself offensively?

You hit positively on a lot of those if's and you can be a division contender...likely? No, but possible. Fail on most of those and you can just as easily regress and fourth might be where you land.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch (Post 14081373)

And while you are correct that we don't know what offers either of them have had, I suspect that the major sticking point is still going to be over opt-outs.

The agents for these mega clients want absolutely no risk in their deals and want ALL the risk on the signing teams. If the player plays to his ability for 3 years, he's going to want to opt out and test the market under the new CBA. If he goes Full Heyward and just sucks, well shit happens team - you're stuck with him for a decade.

Everyone wants to make this about money when in all reality it's almost certainly falling apart due to exposure. Notice how quickly the market has slowed down since the opt-outs have become industry standard. People point to the draft pick compensation as the reason but that's ridiculous - draft pick compensation is LESS burdensome than it was under the previous Type A and Type B FA compensation rules, especially for higher end players. And it's not a raw dollars thing because teams aren't risking proportionally more even with the raw dollars being higher (revenues have increased as well).

The problem is that there is literally no way for them to truly come out ahead with the rise of opt-outs. Those are what is killing these deals and those are what teams are now fighting against. If the mega-agents would actually say "Sure, we'll take $300/10 with no opt-outs..." I'm betting these guys would get signed in a heartbeat. But they don't want to risk the possibility of the new CBA exploding the market and their clients being locked in long-term.

And I'd imagine dozens of teams would gladly give a high AAV, 3 year deal to get to the next CBA as well but again - agents won't risk their guy getting hurt.

They want it both coming and going and they cry collusion when owners are unwilling to just bend over and take it. It's ridiculous.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14081392)

A

The problem is that there is literally no way for them to truly come out ahead with the rise of opt-outs. Those are what is killing these deals and those are what teams are now fighting against. If the mega-agents would actually say "Sure, we'll take $300/10 with no opt-outs..." I'm betting these guys would get signed in a heartbeat. But they don't want to risk the possibility of the new CBA exploding the market and their clients being locked in long-term.
.

Sure there is. If someone like Harper tears it up for three years and then opts out you get his three best years and let someone else pay for his likely decline phase. Opt-outs are only a risk if you assume that the guy is going to underperform the contract and/or get hurt.

And if you're a team like the Dodgers that is always on the brink of a World Series, the risk of signing someone like Harper is more than obviated by the upside. After all, you're the guy that has repeatedly said, "flags fly forever" on here. For as much as you've chastised Mozeliak for being risk averse, I would think that you'd realize that fear of these long term deals is an overly conservative reaction that actually creates a market inefficiency in favor of signing these guys, because executives look at it only through the prism of what can go wrong.

If you sign Harper to 10/300 with opt-outs after years 3 and 6, and he ends up giving you 12+ WAR total over the first three years and opts out, you win.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14081359)

If this is so obvious why haven’t they changed his mechanics? They have every kind of trainer and consultant working with him. Probably spending a ton of money. Again, if it’s the core issue, why bother with anything else?

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins (Post 14081542)

I think Mozeliak is being a complete coward. I've said 100 times over (I think here, but maybe just at my Cardinals board) that he needs to hang the concern over the damn opt outs and sign the guy.

But I don't think it's a rational decision. Nor do I think getting 12 wins for $90 million is anything approximating a win (the $8 million win share remains idiotic).

But I simply do not care because the Cardinals are now at a point where Harper takes them from an also-ran to a genuine contender for at least 1 season while also giving them a known throughput for what will almost certainly be 2 more after that. They can 'lose' the deal less badly than many if not most.

Getting roughly market value out of your player isn't winning a deal - it's simply not losing it. If they can get 15-18 wins out of Harper over 3 years and pay $90 million for that privilege then I'd say they've gotten their money's worth.

But if Bryce Harper would take $90 million over 3 seasons he'd have signed the day after FA opened. By all accounts if he'd have taken $30 million/season over 10 seasons without opt-outs he'd have signed by now. I don't believe teams are being unreasonable in saying "Y'know, that's a hell of a lot of risk for us to take for the upshot of getting what we paid for..."

I wish the Cardinals would do it anyway, but only because it's simply money DeWitt will be taking to his grave or spending on less impactful players. I don't think it's a 'sound' decision in a vacuum.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 14081596)

Because then he's throwing 96 and ultimately you can tell the guy to stop doing that all you want but when he started doing it (and you can see on the video clips exactly when he did) he added 3-4 mph of velocity and exploded on the prospect scene.

I actually think he did some damage to his breaking stuff; really hurt the depth on his curveball in particular and seems to have gone primarily to the slider to adjust. But chicks (and prospect magazines) dig the radar gun.

I think the Cardinals have always been fairly hands-off with the mechanics on their guys going all the way back to the Duncan era. If they can't get buy-in, they're not gonna get him to change. If you asked my best guess, that would be it. But I've called it organizational negligence going back to before he broke down the first time. I wasn't quite attuned enough to the team during the Alan Benes years to really understand in real time how badly they ****ed that kid up, but I feel like we're seeing it happen again with Reyes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 14081596)

It's hard as hell to do that, especially at this level. I'm not saying it is impossible, tweaking little things much easier. Think about the years of muscle memory he has built up you have to change.

I could throw pretty hard in high school, but I short armed the ball, and when coaches in college tried to get more extension it was hard as hell to find consistency and often fell back to what was comfortable. I blew out my elbow and then my shoulder coming back trying to compensate for what blew out my elbow.

Teams still don’t know how to calc the value of opt-outs. I’m guessing some dude at UChicago could create a Black-Scholes for them.

Triggering DJ..........from STL article

With the start of Cardinals training camp less than two weeks away, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said he's pleased with what the club accomplished in the offseason and didn’t envision adding any free agent — even if the price tags on some of those free agents might have dropped through the winter.

“Dating back to October in this process,” Mozeliak said, “we identified what we wanted to do and we feel we’ve been able to accomplish that.”

He was referring to the trades for first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and lefthanded-hitting utility player Drew Robinson, and the free-agent signing of lefthanded reliever Andrew Miller. Mozeliak also is confident that surgically-repaired left fielder Marcell Ozuna will be ready by opening day.

“Is there another piece we could add, based on where the market is?" Mozeliak said. "Any move we would make now would sort of complicate things.

“Even if we were to break (camp) today, we’re going to have guys competing for at-bats already. And we still feel we have a lot of depth in our pitching.

“If nothing changed, we would have some tough decisions. Any additions would just make things tougher. We have competition now. In fairness, is it over-competition?”

Bernie’s take on the 2019 bullpen options from the Athletic

right now, the Cardinals have significant manpower in their pitching department.

Let’s review.

Right-handed relievers

Jordan Hicks
John Brebbia
Dominic Leone
Dakota Hudson
Alex Reyes
Mike Mayers
Daniel Poncedeleon
Luke Gregerson
Giovanny Gallegos
Ryan Helsley
John Gant

Relevant notes:

Gant, Hudson, Reyes and Poncedeleon could, in theory, could be in the competition for a rotation spot.

The young Reyes has the intimidating talent to become a massive bullpen weapon. But after enduring two consecutive seasons lost to injury, it’s natural to question the wisdom of deploying him as a reliever, a job that requires frequent warmups and pitching on back-to-back days. That said, his relief assignments could be planned and spaced out. Perhaps Reyes can be used in relief, in tandem, with a designated Cardinals starting pitcher.

If manager Mike Shildt goes with a traditional closer, Hicks is a strong candidate. My favorite stat of the 2018 season: Hicks led MLB with 776 fastballs clocked at 100-plus miles per hour. He ruled righty hitters, allowing a .150 average and .171 slugging percentage. And Hicks has a preposterously elevated ground-ball rate of 60.7 percent. Now he just has to find a way to convert all that heat and sink into more strikeouts; a 20.7-percent K rate is too low. And his walk rate (13.3 percent) is too high.

Hudson doesn’t throw nearly as hard as Hicks, but he also has a crazy-good ground-ball rate of 60.8 percent. Big problem: As a rookie last season, Hudson had a 16-percent strikeout rate and 15.3-percent walk rate. That must improve. Dramatically so.

Depending on need, injuries, trends in spring training and early-season performances, veteran starting pitchers Carlos Martinez and Adam Wainwright could be repurposed and turned into relievers. Martinez in particular could be transferred into a quasi-closer role; he was used in that capacity late last season.

Keep an eye on Helsley, who can throw 100-plus mph and has a wicked strikeout rate. If Helsley can avoid arm trouble and get his walk rate down, he’ll surface in the St. Louis bullpen at some point in 2019.

Brebbia is vulnerable against lefty batters but dominated righties last season with a 34.5 percent strikeout rate.

If healthy, Leone looms as an asset, given his 29-percent strikeout rate and 2.56 ERA in 70 innings for Toronto in 2017.

As a guest on my 101ESPN radio show, DeWitt touted Poncedeleon as a bullpen option because of the development of a four-seam fastball that pushed his K/9 rate up to 10.3 at Triple A Memphis last season. And in his work for the Cardinals, “Ponce” was tough on lefty batters, always a plus for a right-handed pitcher.

Sleeper candidate: Gallegos. He’s intriguing for a good and possibly valuable reason: Over his last three seasons, pitching in the Yankees’ and Cardinals’ systems, he had a 38-percent strikeout rate against lefties, with a low walk rate of just six percent.

Gant, who has a terrific changeup, has also been effective against left-handed batters, which could be helpful depending on how the rotation and bullpen take shape during the season.

The Cardinals are increasingly optimistic about Gregerson’s pitching health, but what about his diminishing velocity?
Left-handed relievers

Andrew Miller
Brett Cecil
Austin Gomber
Chasen Shreve
Tyler Webb
Genesis Cabrera
Evan Kruczynski

Relevant notes:

For Miller, it’s all about health, especially a previously problematic knee. But another factor is burnout. After mowing down hitters for a career-high 44.7-percent strikeout rate in 2016, Miller’s K rate dropped to 29.2 percent last season. That said, he still has a killer slider. That one pitch alone makes Miller a scary presence in a St. Louis bullpen that needs enforcers. And Cardinals management believes Miller will be a tremendous influence on their young pitchers.

Gomber could battle for a rotation spot. But in his rookie debut with the Cardinals last season, Gomber started 11 games and worked 18 others in relief. He wasn’t a hammer against lefty hitters, allowing a .333 OBP and .411 slugging percentage with a blah strikeout rate of 18 percent. Gomber can do better than that. But where will he land? His role matters. These are small samples, but last season Gomber had a 5.05 FIP and 1.4 strikeout/walk ratio as a reliever — and a 3.70 FIP and 2.4 K/BB ratio as a starter.

Two seasons into a four-year deal worth $30.5 million, Cecil has been a bust. But the Cardinals are encouraged because Cecil rededicated himself to conditioning this offseason and is supposedly in “The Best Shape Of His Life.” Perhaps this will help Cecil fend off lefties, who have blasted him for a .323 average, .390 OBP and .519 slugging over the past two years. If Cecil can bounce back, it will be a positive development — and a major one — for the Cardinals.

Shreve came over (with Gallegos) in a trade that sent first baseman Luke Voit to the Yankees. I thought Shreve would benefit from getting away from Yankee Stadium, but it didn’t turn out that way. Another small sample here, but his FIP (4.78) and home-run yield rate (1.8 per 9 innings) at Yankee Stadium were better than his FIP (5.48) and HR rate (2.0 per 9) at Busch Stadium. And Shreve’s walk rate was a mess at both places. Maybe pitching coach Mike Maddux can get Shreve on track in spring training.

Cabrera is a live-armed rookie who came to St. Louis in last summer’s trade that sent outfielder Tommy Pham to Tampa Bay. Cabrera has dazzled the Cardinals’ minor-league staff in his relatively short time in the system, and he’s on the fast track to St. Louis. He’s fine against righty batters, but in his last two minor-league seasons, Cabrera has limited lkefties to an OPS of .627 and .550, respectively. And his strikeout punch is gaining power; in limited duty at Memphis late last season, Cabrera struck out 43 percent of opposing lefties. He’s on the way to St. Louis, probably sooner than later.

This will probably sound familiar, but Webb walked too many hitters and didn’t strike out enough of them in spot duty for the Cardinals last season. But he had good results (and even better luck) against lefties, who had a .221 average on balls in play against him last season.

Kruczynski is making a quick climb through the system, and the Cardinals’ front office likes him a lot. He’s projected as a starter, but the Cardinals rarely hesitate to transition a young starter to a relief role. And 2019 may be too soon. Keep this in mind: Kruczynski held lefty batters to a .292 OBP and .311 slugging in the minors.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 14100810)

DJ and Hamas, does this guy know what he is talking about?

A Look at the Cardinals' Prospects in the High Minors https://www.reddit.com/r/Cardinals/c...MX&sh=a912aa86 https://www.reddit.com/r/Cardinals/c...A3&sh=6866790b

Yeah, that's all pretty fair. I love Carlson. I don't know that he's an 'impact' player in the making, at least not by my definition, but he's very possibly a switch-hitting version of the good Piscotty we had for stretches. A 3-4 win player is a possibility and I expect him to explode through Memphis this year.

Maybe a few nits to pick; he's probably overvaluing Thomas and Williams a bit, though he has them in the correct tier (I just think his writeups were a little too glowing; Williams is definitely running out of runway). He mentioned Gallegos but not Elledge (probably because Gallegos is on the 40 and Elledge isn't). Krucszynski is an odd guy to pull from our pile of fungible AAAA arms but he did have a nice rise last season.

He's one of the few people willing to point out that Munoz probably isn't that good and his defensive 'versatility' is a myth.

https://youtu.be/zWmIb5kdz9s

2011 was a long time ago, but let's get hyped fellas

Quote:

Originally Posted by BDj23 (Post 14112021)

https://youtu.be/zWmIb5kdz9s

2011 was a long time ago, but let's get hyped fellas

St.Louis Cardinals 2019 Hype Video (2018 regular season highlights)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OV_...&feature=share

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry (Post 14114089)

Machado to Padres
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2...res-reach-deal

Padres? Just went for the money huh Manny?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry (Post 14114089)

Machado to Padres
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2...res-reach-deal

Fuuuuuuuuuuck

[/Machadodynastyleagueowner]

I mean lord, what a kick in the dick his fantasy value just took. Dude goes from an absolute launching pad in Camden to a graveyard in Petco. It's slightly worse for lefties, IIRC, but the lineup around him is going to remain balls for the foreseeable future (Tatis ain't Vlad Jr even when he finally arrives) and the marine layer is murder.

What a strange decision for a guy who has a genuine HoF shot. This will cripple his numbers, IMO. Probably a solid 15% off across the board on his counting stats.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14114124)

"Hey DJ, here's 300 million dollars to go to this law firm that's not going to get you recognized in the Columbia area very well"

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14114192)

"Hey DJ, here's 300 million dollars to go to this law firm that's not going to get you recognized in the Columbia area very well"

If I were getting offered $250 million to go to a law firm in DC that lined me up for a spot on the Supreme Court some day I'd probably respectfully decline.

There have been studies done on the financial value of being a hall of famer and they're pretty significant.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14114202)

Where does that financial value come from? Seems like it would be more or less a probability where this deal is a certainty in terms of value.

Someone offers me 300 million to go be a molar mechanic anywhere within 1000 miles of where I currently leave, I wouldn't hesitate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14114209)

I don't recall; it's been awhile.

And yes, if your choices are $300 million or zero, you hang the HoF and take the $300 million. But if you're getting offered several different opportunities, some of which are in the same financial ballpark but also allow you to set yourself up nicely for decades to come (and gain you some degree of historical significance), that calculus alters a great deal. Especially when you've already made $40 million.

I never fault guys for taking the best offer, but I do think some of them make decisions they'll regret a great deal as time goes on. Ask Albert Pujols if he's still happy with the decision he made - if he were being honest, I suspect he'd say no.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14114244)

Yeah, I would guess he figured that pretty quickly but **** him.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14114289)

Yeah, I would guess he figured that pretty quickly but **** him.

Agreed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14114296)

Agreed.

In the end, for the Cards it worked out better that he left I'd imagine, but from a nostalgic standpoint I wanted that dude to be Stan the Man 2.0.

Oh yeah, and an additional thing to think about is that he's getting taxed on where he plays his games. Congrats to Manny for that massive chunk of California state income tax he'll be paying...

The vast majority of Manny's income is gonna get a staggering top state rate of 13%. Contrast that to, say, signing in Chicago and paying their rate of 5% and you're looking at a difference of $2 million/season in taxes. That's not nothing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14114300)

In the end, for the Cards it worked out better that he left I'd imagine, but from a nostalgic standpoint I wanted that dude to be Stan the Man 2.0.

It would have worked out better for him than the Cardinals, But, the decline and us forcing him into the lineup could have eroded his popularity.

It's all on him though as to why he didnt stay. The Cardinals offered up similar, in the ballpark money. He felt slighted or wanted every single $? We will never know....

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 14114324)

It's about respect, mang...

And God told him to take the biggest deal. God always tells them to take the biggest deal.

C-Mart is just a ****ing waste. Should have traded him after the 2017 season.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus (Post 14114354)

C-Mart is just a ****ing waste. Should have traded him after the 2017 season.

He has top of the rotation stuff. Just lacks the consistent focus to stay at that level. Maybe he should be put in as the closer? He has been consistently good when asked to just pitch and stay focused on one inning.

Rafferty and Mikolas are playoff caliber starting pitchers. I think we should bring along Reyes to get him ready to pitch in the playoffs. How ever they do that, save his innings to give us 5 innings in at least 3 games in the playoffs if needed.

Should have traded Wacha. If he somehow, someway ends up healthy at the break, the Cardinals should trade him. Consider yourself lucky. No way he finishes the season or helps us out in the playoffs, assuming we even get there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 14114415)

C-Mart is hurt again, shutdown for 2 weeks because of shoulder weakness. Exact same issue as last season. No shocker there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14114338)

It's about respect, mang...

And God told him to take the biggest deal. God always tells them to take the biggest deal.

God must be a capitalist.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus (Post 14114432)

C-Mart is hurt again, shutdown for 2 weeks because of shoulder weakness. Exact same issue as last season. No shocker there.

:cuss: **** didn't know that.

Of course he's hurt again.

He's always going to have issues with it. Look at him mechanically. He's a damn mess.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14114470)

Of course he's hurt again.

He's always going to have issues with it. Look at him mechanically. He's a damn mess.

I don't agree. He's a little loud and I don't love his recoil rather than follow through, but he does a pretty good job with deceleration even with that thrown in.

He does a great job using his legs, he doesn't come off late, his timing and rhythm are good; I mean when you look past the noise and just watch him at key points in his delivery, he's constantly in good, athletic positions.

In an absolutely perfect world I'd have his arm slot up but that's because...well because I can't throw low 3/4s with any kind of velocity so it's absolutely insane to me that anyone else can. It's just pure 'tall pitchers with overhand curves are the dreamiest' bias.

I think that because Carlos has loud mechanics with a lot of flailing arms, they can create some inconsistency. But beyond the noise you see a guy that does a lot of things extremely well. Those mechanics aren't what is creating injury and if the Cardinals try to dick with them, they'll make it worse. I think the problem is that he has a physical issue somewhere that they simply haven't found. This is ALL kinetic chain stuff, every bit of it. Last season was a perfect example of a guy that had something get wonky on him and he spend every pitch trying to compensate. That's why those injuries worked all up and down his core - when he'd compensate someplace, someplace else would break down.

If he came to camp with shoulder weakness that's an indictment on 1) The Cardinals for not having him on a throwing program designed to get his arm into shape or 2) Carlos for not adhering to it.

Because now they're probably ****ed. If they can't get his shoulder up to necessary strength before they need him to contribute, they'll see a replay of 2018 where he spends the whole season chasing maladies.

But I'd throw away the 'his mechanics are breaking him' thing, personally. They aren't - they're quite sound, if a bit noisy. But he's a pitcher and pitchers get hurt.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14114634)

I've just always thought he's too much of a pure arm thrower. I haven't really watched it broken down at all like you've said, so i'm probably way off, but he has always seemed a little "army" to me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14114655)

I've just always thought he's too much of a pure arm thrower. I haven't really watched it broken down at all like you've said, so i'm probably way off, but he has always seemed a little "army" to me.

Nah, he is a slinger...very loose, his mechanics as DJ pointed out can get off line because he has a lot of movement, but I never viewed him as an all arm type guy.

Jason Motte...now that was an arm guy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14114655)

I've just always thought he's too much of a pure arm thrower. I haven't really watched it broken down at all like you've said, so i'm probably way off, but he has always seemed a little "army" to me.

The reason you think that is exactly why it isn't true.

People think he's an arm thrower because he comes off the mound so violently, but the reason he comes off the mound that hard is because he is driving hard off that back leg and firing his hips through so much that his drive leg comes swinging around when he lands. He uses a ton of legs.

His motion doesn't look the same as it did when he first came up, but back then he looked a TON like Bob Gibson. And Gibson eventually lost it when his lower half gave up up the ghost on him; pretty strong evidence of how much power he got from his lower half.

Think of it from a purely leverage perspective - a dude that's 6 ft tall throwing 100 mph from low 3/4 ain't doing that with just his arm. He needs his whole body in it. Someone like Wainwright could get away with that kind of thing a little more because he's coming from 6'5'' and straight over the top so he could be a little more army and still use long levers and gravity to do the work. Carlos, because of his stature and arm slot, has to use his body or he'd be throwing 87.

On the flip side - I have no earthly idea how Chris Sale's arm is still attached. Anything I can think to look at on him is...wrong. He throws with a crossfire delivery, he doesn't use his legs nearly as much as I'd like, he brings that ball way behind his body and then whips it through with all the stress on his elbow. He never looks to truly get on top of the baseball (something that I think makes Martinez's mechanics look worse than they actually are) - just everything about watching him throw a baseball at 97 is painful. I have no idea how he's still on one piece.

I will say that if you compare his mechanics now with the Red Sox to what they were with the Chisox, you can see some real big differences. He uses his lower half better, balance is better at the top of his delivery, his arm comes through cleaner and more on top of his pitch. He looks a loooot better than he did and perhaps that's why he's still ticking, but man - the damage he did in his White Sox days has to catch up to him at some point, right?

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14114715)

Quite likely true.

It's probably a little "carlos is hurt" fatigue leaking into my eval. **** if I know.

I've never been a huge fan. I just hate guys that have stuff but struggle to throw strikes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14114728)

Kinda wonder if it's just so genetically driven at that point that it won't matter?

I mean, these guys are the elites of the elites. They're just different.

Same thing with Mahomes throwing a football. It just is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14114740)

Scherzer.

Guy had a lot of shoulder issues; some at Mizzou and then again in AZ and Detroit. Nothing ever serious but a lot of nagging soreness that kept AZ from ever being convinced he could be a long-term starter (and had Mizzou bouncing him in and out of the rotation at times to keep him healthy).

I still don't think his mechanics are the way you'd teach it but again - low 3/4's bias on my part. He separates well, doesn't pull back too far, very good balance and drive. But ultimately as he's gotten older and stronger, his body can just...do it. Somehow he can almost 'push' the pitch uphill as he's delivering it. He's like Sale in that he just never seems to be on top of the ball but when your body can do it, it can do it.

What always blew my mind was Jose Fernandez getting hurt. I loooooved the way that guy threw. Mechanics looked stellar, body type was built to eat innings. I never got the impression he was overthrowing - just looked like a born 220 inning/season guy and of course he blows his arm out (then died). The only thing he did that I don't like is the same thing Martinez does - that damn recoil. Just let your arm fall through.

I love Syndergaard's mechanics but he's had some issues. DeGrom blew out his arm in the minors. I like Greinke a ton and he's been healthy. Verlander's how you'd teach it but Verlander had a 2-3 year period where he was fighting various maladies. I mean that guy has prototype 'classic' mechanics (to my laypersons eyes) and even he hasn't been 100% healthy.

Pitching is just a bitch and a half and these guys get hurt. All you can do is ride 'em till they buck ya.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14114768)

It's the running back of baseball IMO. Just the nature of what you're doing, your body is going to break down. It's kind of inevitable.

It's also why I think the Cards have screwed up so many times not moving on from some of these guys for every day guys. They're good at developing pitching and identifying it. But they hold it to long and it implodes.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cards exec John Mozeliak not totally thrilled with Carlos Martinez's winter training regimen: "Obviously, there’s a history with Carlos’ shoulder and it would be probably in everybody’s best interest if he maintained a constant or perpetual approach to that program."</p>— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) <a href="https://twitter.com/markasaxon/status/1097982818523799552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 19, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sounds like that's on Carlos.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14114634)

If he came to camp with shoulder weakness that's an indictment on 1) The Cardinals for not having him on a throwing program designed to get his arm into shape or 2) Carlos for not adhering to it.

Well Mr. Mozeliak just announced with authority who's fault HE thinks it is....

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cards exec John Mozeliak not totally thrilled with Carlos Martinez's winter training regimen: "Obviously, there’s a history with Carlos’ shoulder and it would be probably in everybody’s best interest if he maintained a constant or perpetual approach to that program."</p>— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) <a href="https://twitter.com/markasaxon/status/1097982818523799552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 19, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

John sounds...not thrilled...with Carlos's off-season dedication to his training/throwing regime.

Like I said, there's no reason for Carlos to have come into camp with a weak shoulder. It sounds like the Cardinals believe he sat a little too much ass this off-season and now he's simply not ready to throw.

EDIT: You're getting so much better at this, O.! I still maintain it's because I say more than you do, but small victories...

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14114839)

I win.

My post was still better because it has a callback to my previous brilliance in identifying the actual problem over your clearly foolish "but his mechanics!" approach.

Go drill some teeth or something.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14114842)

I'm waiting for a pt to get numb so I can do a root canal because I told them 2 years ago that a tooth needed a filling and they said "nah, it's not hurting I'll wait til it does".

Naturally, what could have been an easy 170 dollar filling is now a 2k dollar root canal and crown.

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city (Post 14114848)

you should've just punched it out. He was looking to hurt anyway.

And DAMN that seems expensive. Glad we got in on the family plan.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SAUTO (Post 14114896)

And DAMN that seems expensive. Glad we got in on the family plan.

Lol keep that to yourself

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14114634)

If he came to camp with shoulder weakness that's an indictment on 1) The Cardinals for not having him on a throwing program designed to get his arm into shape or 2) Carlos for not adhering to it.

Goold was on the Danny Mac podcast trying to not throw Carlos under the bus for not adhering to the throwing and strengthening exercises that the Cardinals and his own medical advisors put him on to strengthen the arm, scapula and the muscles around the shoulder. That there would be more on that in the paper but thats all he'd say for now. Sounds like he was going to come down on Carlos hard for not doing the off season work.

You seen the off-season workouts that Mahomes is doing to strengthen his shoulder on Instagram? Thats some fantastic commitment to being his personal best and for the team.

It seems that all I ever see from Carlos is he with his Lamborghini. Maybe he has been doing the off-season work but spring training opens and his shoulder needs to rest? Come on man.....

Not looking good for DJ’s fantasy team........

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Top <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MLB?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MLB</a> positional player contracts the last ten years:<br><br>Giancarlo Stanton - $325mil<br>Miguel Cabrera - $248mil<br>Albert Pujols - $240mil<br>Robinson Cano - $240mil<br>Joey Votto - $225mil<br>Prince Fielder - $214mil<br><br>World Series Games after signing - 0<br><br>Welcome to the club Manny <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Machado?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Machado</a>.</p>— Colin Barnicle (@ColinBarnicle) <a href="https://twitter.com/ColinBarnicle/status/1098072305404706816?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 20, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2...-finishing-500

ROFL

I don't see it happening, but still funny as hell.

Quote:

Originally Posted by VAChief (Post 14117956)

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2...-finishing-500

ROFL

I don't see it happening, but still funny as hell.

they have a lot of unhappy people in that clubhouse, front office and fans. Everyone can now see clearly, there will be no dyansty with this group.

But falling to last place? GTFO ROFL

Looks like they are going to bat Fowler 2nd. Updated the projected lineup in the OP based on what was in the STL today article.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief (Post 14118945)

Looks like they are going to bat Fowler 2nd. Updated the projected lineup in the OP based on what was in the STL today article.

Might as well pull Martinez out of your projected rotation too

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi (Post 14118947)

Might as well pull Martinez out of your projected rotation too

hell, your going to need to write it all in pencil. We have a lot of talent but not many dependable or proven starters. Mikolas, Flaherty and then......

even in a best case scenario that Reyes, Hudson and Gomer perform at or near their top potential, they are not pitching 200 innings.

Wacha will be hurt within a couple of months
Waino? No way he contributes anything significantly for a full season
Martinez is going to the bullpen

Bernie in the Athletic made a case today to go after Dallas Keuchel. He thinks you can get him in a 2-3 year deal. I’m kind of warming to that idea as long as the contract length isn’t more than 2 years with an opt out if it’s 3 years.

On the plus side the bullpen is going to be better
Martinez, Miller and Hicks and maybe Heisley will potentially be as good as anyone’s backend in baseball.

Quote:

PB: Just surprised you're ok with Theo blowing 55M on three vets who are basically Jake Junis. If you're cool with that I won't get in the way. Theodore strategy of developing the hitting get the pitching failed this year. And I don't think it gets better next year.

JD1010: A lot of the Cubs ugly rotation numbers came from Tyler Chatwood who isn't in the rotation any more and I suspect the Cubs will extend Cole Hamels to get his number down for next year.

So you keep on looking at stat sheets and I'll keep watching the actual games.

PB: Yeah you keep watching Cubs, I'll keep watching the Royals. It's the same exact rotation so we can both speak about the other. Hamels pitched really well and was the only diff between the rotations. If you're ok being the same SP as the Royals headed into 2019, which you will be w/o Hamels (and maybe even with him if he reverts to recent form), I won't stop you

JD1010: Your and idiot. Stick to last place baseball and thinking your team is in any way comparable to 90+ win teams.

http://work.chiefsplanet.com/BB/show...postcount=3861

Last place? Cubs laugh off formula that has them finishing under .500

MESA, Ariz. -- It was hidden in plain sight. And everyone in the locker room saw it. At the bottom of the daily schedule, on Day 1 of full-squad workouts for the Chicago Cubs, was a prediction for their season. Baseball Prospectus' proprietary PECOTA formula had the Cubs going 80-82, finishing in last place in the National League Central.

“If that's what they have us at, they need to recheck those numbers," closer Brandon Morrow said. "That's ridiculous, considering the guys we have coming back from injuries. It's not the Chicago Cubs."

According to Cubs brass, the PECOTA formula doesn't take kindly to aging starting pitchers. Jon Lester and Cole Hamels are both 35 years old, Yu Darvish is 32, Jose Quintana just turned 30 and Kyle Hendricks is 29.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2...-finishing-500

I get that the Cubs are chafed and probably rightfully so.

But what they fail to acknowledge is that Pecota considers ceiling AND floor. And while the Cubs ceiling is as high or higher than anyone in the NL, their floor is reeeeeaaaaal bad. That pitching staff could be among the worst in all of baseball and their reinforcements establish zero confidence.

Now it would require that every question mark that have go badly for them. Lester's decline would have to continue (his stuff is just shitty these days) and Hamels would have to revert back to his Rangers form. Darvish would have to stay hurt and the league would have to catch onto Hendricks and his slow, slower, slowest approach. And Quintana would have to be the fools gold he looked like last year.

None of those things are individually impossible or even unlikely. But for ALL of those things to happen seems pretty remote.

If they do, that team could struggle to win 75 games. Granted, you can pretty much say that about everybody's pitching staff but the Cubs do seem to have an unusual combination of age, injury and fringy stuff all over their staff.

Nobody ever sees a collapse coming DJ. That’s precisely why they happen.

Jose Martinez gets a 2 year deal. Since he still is under the control for 4 more years. And those 2 years of control beyond this agreement are still there, Why do this? Does it make him more “tradeable”?

Mikolas signing a new 4 year deal worth $68 million guaranteed.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Reports: Cardinals sign Mikolas to contract extension <a href="https://t.co/pwEUTHBEIZ">https://t.co/pwEUTHBEIZ</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/KMOV?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#KMOV</a> <a href="https://t.co/cX4q4r0kdA">pic.twitter.com/cX4q4r0kdA</a></p>— KMOV (@KMOV) <a href="https://twitter.com/KMOV/status/1100475605173166081?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Pretty much an exactly 'fair' deal by my general view on the value of a win and how I'd project his age 31-34 seasons.

I mean everyone that still parrots that reeruned $8 million+ win share bullshit (they're actually trying to push that to $9 million now) will go sucking Moe's dick but by a reasonable breakdown of what teams actually consider good contracts (vs. simply averaging out all the shit they have to eat because of guaranteed deals), you can see this is a reasonably fair deal for both sides.

I'd say the range of possible outcomes over that contract is something between $105-110 million of 'value' on the high end (presuming slight drop off and steady inflation in player salaries) to around $35-$40 million presuming a year lost to injury, more aggressive drop off and a flat revenue curve in baseball.

Shoot for the middle of those and you're looking at $70-75 million as a reasonable middle ground with both sides accepting similar risk.

There are a bunch of different ways to look at this deal and every way I look at it says that something from $65 to about $76 million seems close enough in the margins to not care either way.

It's a fair deal - I can live with that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut (Post 14125064)

Always enjoy reading your analysis after a move