Jones vs. 1st Rounder + $20m
 

Obviously this is going to be a key discussion this offseason. On The Athletic's podcast (Time's Ours), Nate Taylor said that he's heard that there are multiple teams out there who would give us a 1st round pick for Jones (assuming we tag and trade him), and possibly more than that.

So just to lay out a simplified version of the options:

Option 1:
Chris Jones (probably around $20m per year)

Option 2:
1st round draft pick (cheap for 4-5 years)
$20m worth of other players

For context on how much other players might cost based on recent free agents we've signed:
Clark - $21m
Mathieu - $14m
Hitchens - $9m
Schwartz - $8m
Okafor - $6m

So...which way do we go?

As much as I love Jones, I just can't see how the Chiefs could turn down an offer for him like that. Putting 1/5th of the team's salary into the DL alone seems like it'd force other position groups to be far too weak. So while they theoretically COULD keep Jones, it seems like a better use of funds to let him go, draft a 1st round LBer or similar, and then pay a couple of key contributors in the secondary.

Keep Jones. Watch him and Clark wreck shit for 5 more years.

Said it in the other thread but I need at least what we got for Clark to move Jones. MAYBE a 1st and high 3rd rounder.

You can either have Chris Jones or what’s in the mystery box?

Chiefs fans: We’ve always wanted a Chris Jones but a mystery box could be anything. It could even be a Chris Jones!

I don't view it as a Jones or 20 million option as much as a Jones and an LDT/Watkins/Erving/Sorenson proposition. And I'll take Jones.

But we know that the box has at least $20m in it. That's the difference.

And you’re having to replace him.

I guess I'd just rather spread the money around. I'd gladly take a slightly worse DL for an improved LBer corps.

I know what I’m getting with Jones if retained. Arguably the best interior D-lineman in the league who consistently makes plays. A fan favourite who loves the city and has his best football in front of him.

I get the allure of a high pick and cap space, but the cap can be manipulated, and not many teams can brag having two elite d-lineman in Jones and Clark that affect the game so much. I prefer the Chiefs retain Jones on a long-term deal. Some cap relief lies ahead in 2021, where Mahomes and Jones’ extensions factor in. By 2021 Veach will have a full complement of picks + arguably some compensatory picks to reload the roster.

Slightly worse? Did you see the drop off in interior pressure against the Texans?

If you can get a good haul, sure.

But i'd expect not to hear you guys who want to trade him and such to not bitch when said rookie DL they draft isn't as good and gets washed out while he learns the position.

We got 5 sacks in that game...

We got 5 sacks against a team that has a suspect line and a QB that was known for taking sacks.

I think we should probably credit our offense with a few of those sacks.....

1st round pick and $20 million in cap space.

Keep the roster young and flexible around Mahomes. That would be another huge contract on the books.

This is one thing we could really learn from the Patriots. In their prime, they were constantly selling high on players. Besides the rampant cheating, their ability to move players was a huge part of their success.

I'd personally take $20m in cap space and still dump Watkins and Erving. I'm not quite ready to dump LDT and Sorensen personally.

Jones is an elite talent. No one will debate that.

I still feel that Clark, Pennel, Nnadi, and Okafor is a well above average DL. Having a bench of Kpassagnon, Saunders, and Speaks gives you solid depth too.

Our defense needs corners (we currently have 2) and more speed at LB.

I’d also like to see the additional money/picks used to upgrade the interior OL. Having any threat of a consistent running game will make Mahomes that much more lethal.

When you look at what guys get on the open market, that 20 million ain't gonna go that far anyway.

Cycle him out and strengthen different parts of the defense with young, cheaper talent.

We need to get out of this thought-process of keeping expensive talent because the team will struggle without one guy.

The only guy this team can't lose is Mahomes. The rest are all moveable pieces.

As others have said... 1st round pick + 3rd rounder. As much as I like Jones, I've seen what happens when a team spends too much on defense. While a good defense is required, the rules changes favor the offense and given some of the bad contracts that the Chiefs have had in the past, I say keep bringing in the fresh talent and let someone else overpay.

I’ll honestly be happy as long as Veach doesn’t panic in either direction.

Don’t overpay Jones just you keep the band together.

Don’t firesell Jones because you think you can’t afford him.

If we keep Jones, who exactly are our starting CBs? A rookie and Ward? How about the year following in which Ward is no longer on that cheap undrafted contract of his? What about that goal of giving Pat a real OL (on the interior)?

I reeeeeally want Jones but I also don’t want Orlando ****ing Scandrick as one of my starters

Exactly.

Dynasties' areas of strength morphs over years as your talent emerges.

Putting all of your eggs in one basket (DLine) is not smart. Trust in your talent evaluation, draft well, and rotate in good players.

IMVHO I sign Jones. A DL who can gets sacks from the interior (ala Aaron Donald) next to QB are probably the most valuable person on the team.

I thought Chiefs fans would have learnt their lesson having all that cap space warming the bench over the last 2-3 years with Berry and Houston. Also there is no other team one Chris Jones away from competing with the Chiefs at this point.

Probably best not to pay Jones this much especially with Veach showing to have a good eye for talent and drafting smart.

My hope at CB is that we re-sign Fuller to a reasonable deal to go with Ward and Fenton. Then sign a Breeland-type FA on a 1year prove it deal and draft two more.

Fuller also gives us added depth at safety until Thornhill returns.

Yeah, this isn’t the Royals trying to make another run in 2016 knowing they won’t be back for awhile anyway.

Now that we’ve won 1, we need a long-term approach. I think Veach has that.

Not for a SINGLE first round pick...must be first +.

Dynasties are just so rare in the NFL that shit has to match up well for it to work. I think you probably have cycles where you go more in for a SB, then clean things up and carry on etc.

It's probably time to clean up the cap and go young. It sucks to lose a player like Jones, but it is what it is. I wouldn't give him away by any means though.

I like Fuller but I really don't see the team resigning him. Same with Robinson.

I don't really want to compare things to the Pats. That was a one off thing that won't happen again. Don't hold this current Chiefs regime up to that to measure success.

If you win multiple SB's, you're in a class with very few. 6 just isn't gonna happen.

Yep. With QBs getting the ball out quicker edge rushers are finding it harder to get to the qb, but if you can get the push up the middle that changes everything.

I’ll argue to keep Jones but in the end I’m going to trust Veach. If he thinks that we’re better off trading Jones...then so be it. But I’m not supporting it if we get a Dee Ford return back.

Jones. The quickest way to the QB is up the middle. He is very good at that and very hard to replace. Draft picks are always crap shoots. We already know what we get with Jones. I don’t think his contract will be as oppressive if there is a separate QB cap or at least cap relief for QB salaries. I strongly believe that will pass with the next CBA. Every team stands to benefit from it.

You shouldn’t make that the expectation, but we would be foolish to not imitate some of the things that made them successful (without cheating obviously)

Every decade has a dynasty though. Who is better positioned to be that in the 2020’s than KC? No one else has coach and QB figured out like we do.

They had the GOAT QB on a cheap deal. That's not likely to repeat here.

For me, it depends on how high the pick is and if any other picks are thrown in. Inside pressure is severely underrated and Jones did improve as a run defender throughout the year. If the pick is anything above #20 and no other picks involved, I'd say pass. Top 20?........maybe.

Chris Jones is worth an absolute haul. Tag and trade him. Maybe it's because we've been burned on Justin Houston and Eric Berry in the past, but I'm not keen on giving defensive players gigantic contracts.

It's a roll of the dice either way.

If we can get a mid first AND third this year, I’d move him. Or a mid first this year and a second next year. Otherwise, having a stacked DL and an offense led by Mahomes is a recipe for sustained dominance.

Wanna trade someone? Trade Watkins, LDT and Erving.

But doesn’t that further prove that we should imitate some of how they managed their personnel? We’ll have more cap constraints than they did, so we’ll need to be even smarter than they were to maintain this level of success.

We’re definitely putting more eggs in one basket by re-signing Jones. If we trade and keep the cap space, we can put the resources into multiple pieces.

Watkins would need a new contract.
We might get a JUGS machine for LDT
We might get a wet paper towel for Erving.

I think Mahomes will take a smaller deal in order to keep winning. He can make up the difference in endorsements.

The problem is that that hasn't proved true historically. I'm trying to find the tweet, but I saw a stat recently said that teams with X% of the salary cap tied up in their top 5 players (as we would be after signing Jones and Mahomes) have never won the Super Bowl. It just puts too much strain on all of the other positions.

Of course, there's also a similar stat for QBs percent of the cap alone, and we have no choice but to do that with Pat...

We don't win a SB without Jones in that game. A first and 20m ain't enough to move the needle.

Would love for them to keep Jones, but don't know if it's feasible and financially sound to tie up $40 mil. per year in 2 D-Linemen. That seems like bad business. I know we like to piss on the Pats around here (deservedly so), but they would never do that and they are the modern example of how to try and do a 'dynasty' in football (well, that and the cheating, of course).

Probably makes more sense to tag and trade him and invest elsewhere in the roster. That said, I wouldn't just give him away. We need to get at LEAST a 1st and 3rd for him. Anything less and I would just tell the other teams to kick rocks and play him on the franchise tag this year and try again next year.

Or, if the value isn't there in a trade, you could always give him the money (as long as it's semi-reasonable) and try and fill in the rest of the roster with draft picks, veterans looking for a ring and cheap reclamation projects. The only problem with that strategy is you leave yourself VERY LITTLE room for error. Better hit on most of your draft picks and FA decisions if you elect to go that way. At least for the next few years, anyway . . . . . .

So it comes down to what's out there, what you can do with it and how much do you trust Veach to make the right decisions.

It would take a very dumb team offering an absurd amount of value to make me feel good about not keeping Chris Jones.

we might not of needed Jones to win the Superbowl if we had better LBs and DBs, those batted balls from jones were huge because our LBs can't cover very well, if Mathieu would not be needed t have to man up on the TEs could help elsewhere.

Option 3-whatever Veach decides bc I trust him.

Hope we can keep Chris but I understand if we deal him.

Signing Jones comes with more risk than if he's tagged/traded.

For KC to get value from a Jones signing, he's got to perform at an elite level for multiple years and he's got to stay healthy. If he doesn't do those things, it can spell disaster for the Chiefs. On the other hand, tagging/trading Jones for fair compensation gives KC flexibility, allowing them to invest in multiple positions, including the offensive line which is absolutely crucial in protecting our greatest asset.

KC doesn't have to draft a superstar to make tagging/trading worth it. They just have to draft adequately and make smart, low-cost free agent signings. You minimize risk by tagging/trading Jones. If KC had a crystal ball telling them that Jones will stay healthy for the next three years, and he'll perform just like he did this year when he was healthy, then yeah, you'd sign him. But there are no guarantees and the Chiefs cannot afford to take the risk of Jones under performing on his contract.

If the Chiefs feel like he can be a dependable piece for a future dynasty, they will lock him up without a second thought. It’s how Andy does business.

If these rumors that the FO are more down on him than indicated are accurate, they’ll trade him ala Peters and Ford.

At the end of the day, I trust Andy here.

Here’s the way I see it, and I may well be wrong.

The offense has the following pieces in place the next 2 seasons...

Mahomes
Kelce
Hill
Hardman
Fisher
Schwartz

That’s enough to continue being top 5 in scoring.

Teams will be forced to abandon the run more and more as the front 7 learns Dalys way to stopping opposing running games like they did in the last 8 games of the year.

Opposing offenses are going to need to throw the ball a lot to stay in games. We are going to have a group of young corners (maybe even playing 2 rookie corners a lot) so imo the best way to help them is to have a DL that can get pressure without blitzing.

In my opinion we extend Jones, cut Watkins (unless he is willing to take a sizable paycut [why would he?]) Wilson and Erving.

Now if Jones wants an overly exuberant amount of money, then tag and trade and take the extra 1st (trade has got to go to an NFC team) and look to free agency and the draft to fill the large void left by Jones.

But, ideally, we keep Jones. I think he just causes too much havoc unlike nearly any DL in the league.

And, for as many sacks as Watson takes, he's pretty damn elusive and is tough to bring down. IDK how many times I've watched Watson look dead to rights and escape and make a play.

From a business standpoint, you almost have to tag and trade as much as I hope they don't. A first isn't going to cut it though. I'd do it a first, 3rd and 5th

Hard to say without knowing what that $20m would be used for... what are some projections as to how that money would be spent?

Trading Jones was inevitable when we traded for Clark IMO.

Obviously we're just fans making guesses, but I'd personally put about $12m of it toward upgrading the LBers and $8m to upgrading the CBs.

Somewhat depends on the first. All firsts are not created equal. To move up from a low first to a high first could take a third and next years first to accomplish. I mean the Chiefs to move up 8 spots in the 1st round to take Mahomes had to give an additional third and next years first.

We talk a lot about drafting and developing our own talent, but when we actually draft and develop our own talent (a legit, top tier talent at one of the most important positions, no less) you want to send them packing at their first big contract?

What a bunch of morans.

It is kind of nice that the only thing we have to argue about this off season is the Jones contract.

A Jones in the hand is worth two in the bush?

Proven player vs an unknown player and some free agents that could be like Hitchens.

"Proven Player" does not guarantee that he will continue to be as dominant or that he will stay healthy. You're gambling that he will, and he could, but you're still gambling.

Jones over the draft pick and cap flexibility. But it's very close for me. Top 15 pick and a 3rd would probably sway me. You'd be using about 4 mil if that cap space on the draft picks but that still leaves enough for a couple upgrade free agents

I have a theory that I haven’t seen discussed yet. I think it’s possible we might use the franchise tag on Chris Jones two seasons in a row. The average salary of the top 5 DT’s is $17.6M. We can make that work for next season, but not long term. We can’t afford a 4/80 or 5/100 contract with Jones under any circumstances that doesn’t make massive sacrifices on the rest of the field. However, we CAN afford $17M one season only.

The second franchise tag means we’d have to pay Jones 120% of his salary from the first tag, which doesn’t make sense. In short, I think we tag and keep jones this year, make another run at a Super Bowl, and then tag and trade him in 2021.

This works out well because we can fill CB spots and build the line/ find replacements over two draft periods.

Edit: 2020 franchise tag salary for a DT is $16.7M.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/a...-tags-in-2020/

No more of a gamble than assuming the picks and money spent on FAs will bring back a return equal to or greater than what you already get with Jones. He could turn out to be the next Eric Berry or Aaron Donald (in terms of living up to his contract) but I think he’s worth the risk.

And you’re assuming that he shows up and plays under the tag next year?

Ya I would really really really like to keep Jones.

That would be all well and good but you lose some leverage that way. Plus Jones might not show for the franchise tag. Also the cba could change franchise tag options and compensation.

Correct. I’m floating this theory under the assumption that his talk about wanting to stay in KC was real. He gets a big guaranteed pay day, gets his huge contract eventually, and can stay in KC for year and try for another ring. Obviously playing on a 1 year contract is risky and he might not agree.

IMO losing leverage on the trade in 2021 is the major downside to this strat, ignoring the risk Jones doesn’t agree to the one year deal. If we really can get a good first and third for him, that’s awfully tempting, however we might not get the picks we want for him.

If Veach didn't back up the brinks truck for Frank Clark, you may have a point.

This is too hypothetical at this point.

What is the realistic trade value the Chiefs can get for Chris Jones... top 15 first round draft pick? Bottom of the first round draft pick?

Who can the Chiefs realistically afford to keep with Chris Jones’ contract (and big new potential contract) out of the way... Watkins + Fuller + Breeland?

Greater risk usually comes with the possibility of a greater reward, and that's what makes this decision tough. But I don't think it's even an argument as to which option is riskier for the Chiefs. Jones is awesome, but he's just one player. You're betting on him to stay healthy and keep producing at his current level, and that is far from guaranteed.

QFT

Taylor seemed to feel like it would be a low 1st + mid-rounder or a mid-1st. But even he's kind of connecting the dots rather than saying an offer is on the table.

Houston missed an average of 6 games per year after his big money deal and averaged 9 sacks.

And let's now talk about Berry.

Paying big money second contracts is far from a no brainer.