Terez Paylor's Chiefs' Draft Needs
 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My AFC draft needs series concludes with the AFC West, home of the Super Bowl champs and the three teams tasked with thwarting their attempt to &quot;run it back&quot;:<a href="https://t.co/GBiQjeHqGP">https://t.co/GBiQjeHqGP</a> <a href="https://t.co/VJIJqnBTsL">pic.twitter.com/VJIJqnBTsL</a></p>&mdash; Terez A. Paylor (@TerezPaylor) <a href="https://twitter.com/TerezPaylor/status/1250862958151897088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 16, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Positions needed: RB, G, C, LB, CB

Analysis: The defending Super Bowl champions head into 2020 with a motto of “run it back,” and the team’s offseason plan has reflected that. Kansas City re-signed several key players from its championship team, betting on continuity in a COVID-19-affected season as the Chiefs currently have everyone who played at least 57 percent of the snaps last season under contract for 2020. That doesn’t mean there isn’t room to strengthen the roster.

Offensively, the Chiefs are powered by an explosive offense guided by Mahomes, but there’s a need to bolster the interior of the line to grow with Mahomes and help protect him for the next decade. Beyond that, Super Bowl hero Damien Williams returns to man the running back position, but he’s in a contract year and the team could draft a young back and groom him to take the reins in 2021. Defensively, the Chiefs need second-level help — a sideline-to-sideline linebacker with skills in pass coverage could carve out an immediate role — while the cornerback position would also benefit from the infusion of a top-100 draft pick. And with Mahomes’ massive extension looming, don’t be surprised if Kansas City entertains a trade down in the first round in an attempt to stockpile more cost-controlled assets.

yip

Damn he agrees with me

I love Terez but disagree that we need to take a RB in the first round to groom for the future.

I've never thought about it this way, but when you win the Super Bowl, your draft needs are merely to replace the players you lost in the offseason.

Eh, Chiefs could really use some upgrades at certain positions.

Obviously, the goal is to #runitback, but I’d rather them just dominate and demoralize every one on the way to another Super Bowl Title, a la 2007 Pats, minus the hiccup at the end.

But we don’t have to worry about facing Spags in the Bowl like they did. :D

What's up with all these mocks that predict a running back for us at 32?

Ridiculous.

Wally isn't going to draft a damn running back in the first round.

FAX

RB in the first is just stupid.

Not in the 5 year plan the window is now with a Future HOF QB at the helm

The Chiefs have absolutely nothing after Damien Williams, who turns 28 before the season even begins and has only 1,200 rushing yards and 12 TD's in SIX NFL seasons.

By comparison, Kareem Hunt had 1,300+ yards and 8 TD's in his rookie season alone.

The Chiefs are most certainly taking a running back in this draft. Where and who they take is yet to be determined but it wouldn't be a surprise if they take a guy early, even at #32.

I agree wholeheartedly that they may very well draft a back this year. That part makes sense.

I do not, however, believe for a second that it will be in the first round.

FAX

There's just so many ways to explain it without repeating yourself with the logic behind it

I actually don't believe they'll make a 1st round selection because they only have 5 draft picks this year.

Trading back not only allows them to add more selections but allows them to obtain "cheap labor", something they'll need moving forward.

I know. I feel like a broken record, saying the same things over and over and over again.

Fortunately, some of the guys who initially thought I was insane have now come around and understand the logic behind it.

This makes a lot more sense, Mr. DaneMcCloud (good to see you, BTW) ...

Quick question, however ...

Has Wally ever drafted a running back in the first round? At any point in his 20-year career?

I can't think of one.

FAX

The Chiefs having a dominant running game would put so much stress on the opposing team's defense. We could run them ragged chasing after the Legion of Zoom for 3 quarters then pound them with Thunder (Dobbins) and Lightning (Williams) in the 4th quarter.

He's never drafted a RB in the 1st round but then again, he's never had the #32 pick or lacked a feature back, as he does at this juncture. Here's a list of running backs that Reid has drafted over the years in Philly and KC. I posted this in another thread, so my apologies for the duplication:

2000-6 Thomas Hamner
2001-4 Correll Buckhalter
2002-2 Brian Westbrook
2004-7 Bruce Perry
2005-3 Ryan Moats
2007-3 Tony Hunt
2009-2 LeSean McCoy
2010-6 Charles Scott
2011-5 Dion Lewis
2013-3 Knile Davis
2014-4 D'Anthony Thomas
2017-3 Kareem Hunt
2019-6 Darwin Thompson

As you can see, even when he's had great NFL running backs like Westbrook and Shady, he's still drafting running backs. IMO, a true feature back helps Mahomes way, way more than a center or a guard, because even the threat of a great running back freezes the linebackers and safeties just long enough for Hill, Kelce and the other guys to get open on a far more consistent basis, hence 50 TD's in 2018.

(It's good to see you, too!).

Also if they're really going all-in to repeat, RB is the position that could make the biggest immediate contribution. Even more so with the lack of an off-season.

If we take an RB sooner than 4th I may say gosh darnit Veach.

I say its OL fatty in 1 and OLB in 2.

No way. There's not a running back in this draft that's still gonna be on the board when the Chiefs pick that can walk through the door day one and be a significant improvement over Damien Williams. I'm all for drafting a running. For depth. Just not with our 1st round pick. There's gonna be DB's that we can take with our 32nd pick that can start for us week one. There's your immediate contributor

I don’t think Paylor is saying they take an RB in the first round. He’s just saying what we need, which includes an RB. I agree with Perez and doubt Veach will make it in the first round. But maybe I just missed something. If I did, it means my alcohol consumption has gone up.

Protect Mahomes at all costs. Interior OL in the first or second.

Okay ...

So he has Westbrook in the stable and waits until the 7th to pick a practice-squad guy.

He picks in the 3rd a couple of times and acquires a couple of back-up-level hopefuls.

Then he's back in the 2nd to grab McCoy (nice pick, there) and follows that up with a couple more late-rounders. That looks like churning the roster (to me).

The Davis/Hunt picks are interesting. One can surmise that he was definitely looking for help in the backfield ... so he wasn't unaware of the need.

Still, with no evidence to the contrary, I see no reason to believe that he'll pick RB in the first round.

Unless ...

32 is damn near 2nd round and that is a factor to consider (apparently Wally has no problem picking a ronde deux back if the right guy falls to him). This gives me pause that there "might" be a chance he'll do it this year.

I shouldn't think that anybody (including myself) would adamantly argue that a better run game wouldn't be beneficial to the offense (and the D, for that matter).

Wally is a pass to lead - run to win coach. Clearly, an effective and efficient run game would appeal to him (and us).

Depending on how the chips fall in this draft, my guess is that we'll be looking at defensive help at 32, though ... and Best Player Available in any event.

FAX

What if we drafted a great WR and moved Hill to RB:D

Hell no!

Unsnagged

agree on the need for a RB. Just later in the draft.

agreed here too. Not in the first.

Wasn’t Veach instrumental in LeSean McCoy being drafted?

Also, look the offensive weapons that Andy and Veach have drafted just in their time in KC.

Whenever we pull the trigger on a running back, I’ll be convinced that it’ll be the right move. If it’s the first, then I fully expect an immediate star. If it’s another round, then I fully trust that it’ll prove to be a great value pick.

Running back is one position where we should all trust the team leadership.

I think this is what they preferably want to do...and there will be some good players at #32.

Some team might be looking at Love...and that extra year is important if they want to sit him. A team might want to leap frog those picking early in the 2nd for a WR.

I think the run on RBs starts in somewhere in the 2nd....i also wouldn't be surprised if Veach picked a WR at #32. Watson and Robinson might be gone after 2020...and there will be some good ones there. It takes a season for them to traditionally grasp Reid's system.

I'm curious if a truncated off-season program will influence who they pick....RB and OL would be the easiest transition.

An excellent center who can anchor the line for the next 10 yeaRs would be an great first round pick. But, so would a LB who can anchor run coverage.

An RB that early is not worth it.

Geoff Schwartz on why: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2020/4/...ound-box-count

I'm not a fan of a RB as the best positional value and option in round 1, but this isn't true. Dobbins and/or Swift are very likely to be there at 32 and both offer an immediate upgrade over Williams as a 16 game, dependable every down back. An argument could be made for several others being an upgrade over Williams.

Re: competing with Damien Williams

Both Dobbins and Swift are better at staying healthy than Damien Williams

Swift catches the ball just as well. Dobbins shows the potential to be just as effective as a receiver.

Both Dobbins and Swift are better pure runners... Swift is incredibly shifty in the open field and has elite make-you-miss ability. Dobbins isn't quite as shifty but has more burst and is more physical. Both are better able to guy out yards up the middle than Williams.

Williams may have more pure speed, but he isn't effective at creating when there isn't much there.

Both would be Day 1 upgrades from Damien Williams... and let KC move to an early down back who still is a weapon in the pass game but is far more explosive and consistent running the ball.

The Chiefs' offense becomes a lot more consistent and unstoppable when it has a RB who can offer a little consistency running the football and especially when that RB can win 1x1 vs. LBs, CBs, and S in space as a receiver.

we've reached the part of the offseason in which we argue to the teeth over tiny differences.

I think everyone agrees we'll take a RB somewhere. I think everyone agrees we'll take a LB somewhere, and a CB, and an OL.

I'm not going to throw an internet tantrum over which position where in the draft.

I will say this-Veach has told us, in his own words, that he likes RB's around 220 pounds. So IF you're thinking RB is top priority and maybe even with the first pick, you'd probably be smart to be looking at Veach's prototype as I doubt he'd "reach" with a first round pick.

Anything's possible of course.

Last time I wanted a first round rb it was Trent Williams(Richardson, darn it). No trust me

As I have mentioned ad nauseam, it is a value proposition to me and will depend on how the draft board falls.

Option 1: R1 Murray/Queen/Epenesa R2 Igbinoghene/Johnson/RB that has fallen Dobbins/Akers/CEH R3 BPA ideally IOL/RB Zack Moss or similar/CB

Option 2: Swift/Taylor/Dobbins R2 BPA Igbinoghene/Johnson/Gay/Brooks/IOL R3 BPA IOL/LB/CB of what is left

I have a hard time seeing option 2 offering greater value than any combination of option 1. Veach has absolutely earned the trust to take WTF he wants. IMO if Murray or Queen are there you take them. They might both be gone by early 20s, one of the 2 might still be available at 32. If they are going RB early, I really hope they are able to move back from 32 and pick up another pick in the top 100. That would make RB as the first pick much more palatable. The drop off from top tier LB to second and third tier is far greater than RB.

That's a great point. JK Dobbins is the closest comparison to Kareem Hunt. Physical runner and pretty dang elite in pass pro. The kid from Utah (Moss) also pretty comparable if Veach is looking to go RB later in the draft.

Both Dobbins and Swift are 215-pound backs. I'd call that "around." I'm not going to jump up and down and hammer the table for them, but I think the value they offer at 32, depending on who else is available, is exciting.

Re: who they take (general comment, not directed at Meck), I think people need to be comfortable with the idea that they'll be a depth pick for year one with an eye on them becoming starters in years 2, 3, and 4.

An interior OL would have a good shot to start at C/LG. A RB would have a shot to start over Damien Williams (both due to Williams' injury history and the potential to be an upgrade). A LB would start at WLB or MLB, depending on what they do with Hitchens and who is available.

Every other position is likely going to be coming off the bench.

AJ Epenesa? They've got a lot invested at DE. He MIGHT start Day 1 over Okafor/Kpassagnon, but it's no guarantee.

Jeff Gladney? Maybe he pushes Ward or Breeland out and starts on the outside, but it's no guarantee. Same is true of all the other corners likely to be available unless they specifically take a slot guy with the plan of using HB more traditionally.

So I don't think the idea of "Day 1 impact" is as important to who they take in round 1 as many are making it out to be. There are a few spots where they might be able to get a guy who is 1) good value there; 2) likely to start right away, but most spots it's someone who is competing for a spot, at best.

I wish I could make some money off of those of you who think this team is going to draft a RB #32 overall. Anyone wanna take a bet?

This is not happening!

I could see a scenario where maybe just MAYBE they trade down from the #32 overall pick and draft a RB with their first pick. Still very unlikely.

Anyd Reid would literally tell you why would I draft a RB in the 1st round when I can draft one in the 2nd round or later and make him work in my system.

Way too much smoke around Dobbins. If he's there's he's the pick.

I really think we need a RB, just give us stability back at that position for the next couple of years.

I think so too, having a work horse to take some of the pressure of Mahomes (Not that you have to) will help protect him.

As long as we don’t give him a big second contract, I’m fine with this. Either a team friendly extension or trade for picks after 3-4 years.

What smoke? That we’ve interviewed with him? That’s all I’ve seen.

The way this team is set up, they can pretty much draft at virtually any position (best available) outside of QB and it's a good strategy.

IOL, LB, CB are probably biggest needs, but if they draft a too good to pass up RB, DL or saftey, I won't complain.

Hell, even OT or WR will have value in the future, as soon as next year.

When I look over the possible options, I think the best option would be to move down.

Just don't think there's much of a dip with talent at the spots of need going from 32 to say...the mid to late 2nd round.

Supposedly, they've interviewed him multiple times and for whatever it's worth, he's been mocked to the Chiefs by several mockers this draft season.

I don't really put much stock in what the bozos at CBS Sports and SI have to say but it's been a fairly common theme throughout to see Dobbins go the Chiefs at #32.

But considering these sites are nearly always wrong about every pick, whether it's 1-10 or 11-250, I don't put much, if any, stock into their reports.

Peter King is usually reliable but he has extensive contacts and generally only publishes his mock the week of the draft. All of the other guys are just guessing to the best of their ability, which is generally pretty poor.

Holy crap, I wouldn't want to go from 32 to 48! That's just too far.

I could see them moving down to 33-40 but anything past that would require a 2nd round pick in 2021, at the very least, in addition to multiple 2020 picks.

I wouldn't mind moving down with lets say the Jets for 48 and 79.

That's just not enough to move from #32 overall, IMO.

Throw in a 5th and a 2020 2nd or 3rd, then maybe.

I think there will be a lot of teams in the late first that will be looking to sell. Gonna be hard to leverage value.

Well if that's the case, there will be plenty of talent at #32, so they can just sit and take their guy.

Maybe. I think it's possible Swift, Murray and Queen and both DE's are gone by 32.

What would be the target at that point? I think you can slide down quite a bit and still land either Akers or Dobbins. I'm not high on Delpit like others are. Corner depth is absurd.

I'd probably do it.

5th year option is way more valuable than sliding down that far.

No, it's really not. Have you read the new CBA?

Yip

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is calm-before-the-storm period when NFL execs call around trying to gauge trade interest. Hearing many teams in mid-to-late 1st are looking to move down and accumulate Day 2 picks. Feeling is you can get same level of player in 40-60 range as in the 20’s.</p>&mdash; Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) <a href="https://twitter.com/JimNagy_SB/status/1251110827660316672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 17, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

And the further back you are, the harder it’s going to be.

If we trade down it’s going to be for a discount.

The good thing is, if a few trades happen before our pick, somebody exciting could fall into our lap unexpectedly.

Tua scored a 13 on the Wonderlic test.

I wonder if that will accelerate his fall?

It really depends on how the board falls, but it will be tough regardless. That’s why I think Veach should take any deal he can get as long as it involves at least a 4th rd pick.

Eason and Hurts are players teams want to get a 5th year option on, but the problem for us is that 2 of the teams that reportedly have strong interest in Hurts are in our division.

Drafting a RB in the first round would be foolish. Andy can turn chickenshit into chicken salad. I do agree that a RB needs to be drafted in the top 100 but not the first round. Edwards-Helaire can be had in the 2nd round.

Go with the best available at LB, CB & IOL.

Murray
Queen
Henderson
Fulton
Diggs
Dantzler
Igbinoghene
Ruiz

This is where I’m at....RB or a stud LB would improve the team with the highest immediate impact imop.
Linebacker has the most room to upgrade, but a stud RB added to this offense would make it nearly unstoppable.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

False

Also False

Speculation

False

Never draft for need. Take the best player available.

What if, andrew does make average backs look good? But what if, he could take a great back and make him look elite?

I think this draft is going to be wild and the places where kids get drafted will be incredibly wonky compared to where we see them before the draft. If I’m the chiefs, I pray one of Murray/Queen fall in the first. If not, I try to trade back to 34-42 and pick up and additional early 4th). We need to target one of Gay or Brooks later if neither of the first two are available

I’m also of the opinion that because of the depth in offensive talent in the draft, some RBs fall to round 2-3 that wouldn’t normally be there. One or two of swift, dobbins, Taylor or CEH will fall to our 63rd pick. If “our guy” is there at 63, it’s hard to imagine the staff passing on them given the smoke around us wanting to add offensive talent.

CB and OL will be addressed no doubt. But I still don’t feel like we need to reach on a prospect before his grade would indicate at those spots. If we hit on whichever positions of need we draft... it gives us another year or two to completely focus on positions of need. If you reach on prospects, it makes it less likely that you hit on them—and this you have more positions to fill.

The one guy I’m completely sold on as a 4-5th rounder is Antonio Gibson. That guy would be a weapon in our offense from day 1.

There are some really good options in this draft that will be available fitting major needs. Which means we'll probably go 1) TE, 2) DT, 3) OT. The majority of folks will be batshit crazy mad, but after further evaluation a year later everyone will be praising the evil genius of Burt.

My guess is that it won't be too bad. It is always a little wonky on a couple picks. I think the real problems are guys coming off injury. A lot of teams were not able to have their medical team examine the players so that might be more of a risk then teams are willing to take.

Do you really think teams go 100% BPA? Because I don't believe that for a second. Not everything is black and white as yourself and so many others seem to believe. There are more options than just 100% BPA or tunnel vision on a single position. What would be wrong with setting your sites on a certain number of positions. As the poster mentioned in the post you quoted, set your sites on BPA at RB, CB, LB or whatever position groups you feel are the biggest need. I guarantee there's going to be an elite talent at one of those 3 positions available. If you have 2 players available at the position then you probably allow positional value to come into play for the tiebreaker.

Sorry, I just don't believe any team goes entirely BPA without any regard at all for need. Again, that doesn't mean you narrow in on one position and reach for a need. It does mean that unless a generational, top 5 type talent somehow falls to you at 32, you probably don't end up taking a defensive tackle there seeing as we're already at least 4 deep at the position and set for the future. If you need a CB and Jerry Jeudy somehow falls to you at #32, then yeah by all means take him because he's a top 10 talent and is a huge value compared to a CB you have ranked in the 30-40 range. But if Mims and a CB are both available and you have both similarly ranked? Pretty sure the team is going to take a CB over Mims as that's the bigger need in both the short term and long term.

It's not as simple as just saying take BPA.

Food for thought: If the jags offer Pick 20 and 73 for Chris Jones, and you can guarantee Murray or Queen is there at 20... Do you accept that trade?

Smart teams, yes.

Dumb teams, like Dave Gettleman's Giants or Detroit or the Browns?

No.

Outside of QB, the best teams in the NFL draft BPA. Look at consistently good to great teams like the Ravens and Steelers. They're always taking BPA, which is why they're always in the upper echelon of NFL teams, year in and year out.

If a team drafts for need, they end up chasing after the same position, year in and year out. Look at the Chiefs drafts from 2000-2009. It's a constant theme of drafting defensive tackles and defensive ends in rounds 1, 2 and 3, none of whom amounted to jack shit.

So, if you want to draft for need, be prepared to fail, time and time again.

Dane,

Would you draft a RB at 32 (if all of them were available) or Delpit?

Both of those picks would be BPA in my eyes

I agree with drafting best player available, but normally there are multiple players right around the same level at different positions.

For instance, at 32 the Chiefs might see a corner, linebacker, and wide receiver with the same grade (or very close). In those cases, I think Veach/Reid use need as the tiebreaker.

It’s never a good idea to reach based on need though. I’d rather have another stud at a position where we’re already loaded than reach to fill a hole. Fill the hole later in the draft when the BPA fits that need.

Delpit, without hesitation.

His football IQ is sky high, he's 6'3 and ran a 4.39 40 and can play Safety, CB and be a Hybrid LBer on 3rd downs. He can cover tight ends and taller receives like Mike Williams. He offers so much value, maybe as much as Isaiah Simmons can, in the right defense.

That said, this is why it would be nice to have a 6th or 7th because I think there's a good chance that Akers is gone before #63. He would be my ideal 2nd round running back so if he's gone, the Chiefs may wait until the 3rd to make that selection because there may be better value at WR, CB or LB at #63, than running back.

Again, why are there only 2 options you're considering? It doesn't have to be 100% BPA or 100% need.

I agree, doing what the Cowboys did in 2017 and saying they had to take Taco Charlton because they needed a DE led to them drafting a bust. Don't zero in on a single position.

But I refuse to believe that Brett Veach doesn't take need into consideration. If they have a TE at #25 on their board and a CB/LB/RB at #30 on their board, do you really think they're going to take the TE because he's ranked just a little higher? I guess you believe that, I don't. I think they take the position that fills a need. Now if they had a TE ranked top 10 on their board and he somehow falls to #32, then yeah I do think there's a possibility he would be the pick as it's too good of a value to pass up. But under the assumption that doesn't happen, and they have a bunch of players ranked in a similar manner, my belief is that positional need would help to determine which player they take.

Isn't that the type of player we envisioned O'Daniel being? So what went wrong with O'Daniel? Is it him as a player that was the failure, or was it us trying to draft a hybrid player that couldn't excel at either position?

I've seen too many S/LB hybrids fail to believe it's such an easy position. Besides DOD, we've seen someone like Taylor Mays come out of USC with a similar skillset and fail to make it in the NFL.

It depends on whether you believe you will be able to sign Jones and make his contract work with the upcoming Mahomes contract.

If you don't then you make the trade. But realistically you need to make the trade prior to the draft. You need Jones signed before you can deal him and no team is going to deal for him unless they know what the numbers of his actual contract. So there won't be a guarantee.

I believe they would have a heated discussion for sure. Kelce will be 31 this upcoming season and the Chiefs have little behind him. If Kelce is out for several weeks, the offense changes considerably.

The Chiefs don't need a Top 5 defense to win the Super Bowl but they do need a Top 5 Offense to win the Super Bowl.

Take away Kelce and it becomes that much more difficult.

The Chiefs most pressing needs are RB, LB, WR and CB, IMO. There's a bit of a dropoff between Round 1 & 2 RB's, not a whole lot between WR's, the linebacking position is one the Chiefs just don't seem to value like you do and the CB position could use some depth but their starters are essentially set.

I'd expect there to be a debate but in the end, they'll take the BPA.

It doesn't make sense to take the 8th rated LB when the 3rd or 4th rated RB is on the board.

It’s much easier to make the argument for BPA for this Chiefs team. The holes aren’t as bad as most teams. If we have a weak spot, it’s essentially the same positions as last year and we won a Super Bowl with that. Great position to be in.

If Claypool is sitting there at our 2nd pick I'm saying screw need, let's run 60 point per game on this country

It’s much more likely that 25 isn’t really 5 “spots” ahead of 30. So, BPA could literally be either.

I also believe the Chiefs take the entire pool of available players into consideration. Veach was quoted yesterday on positions that had good depth in the draft. If you have 2 players ranked in a similar manner, but one of the positions has good depth available and you think you can get another player later in the draft, I see Veach taking the position that drops off in the later rounds.

I just think there are a lot more variables and teams take many things into consideration beyond BPA, such as:

- current need
- future need
- positional value
- age and contracts of current players
- depth in the draft at other positions
- free agents still on the market
- etc.

And I also don't agree that the Chiefs don't value linebacker like I do. Several people have posted about how the Chiefs may have taken a linebacker in the 1st in 2017 if they hadn't taken Mahomes. They gave a pretty large contract to Hitchens for a team that supposedly doesn't value linebacker. They spent a 3rd on DOD. I do believe they value linebacker and their experience the last 2 years of teams beating them to death with passes to tight ends and runningbacks in the flats and short to intermediate zones has taught them the value of having linebackers that can cover.