Will Andy Reid break the all-time career record for wins as a head coach?
 

The Don Shula thread got me thinking about this. Andy Reid is 125 wins behind tying Shula if you count the playoffs. RunKC mentioned in that thread the possibility that Andy would coach for another decade since he has Patrick Mahomes as his QB, so he doesn't have to spend sleepless nights figuring out how to win games with AJ Feeley as his QB.

"Andy's really fat! No way! He's gonna die!" Are you sure about that? That fat man has lasted this long as an NFL head coach and has yet to miss a single NFL game because of a health issue, fat and all. It's a super stressful job and the guy still insanely energetic. So let's throw that argument away and assume he does coach for another decade. Is that a realistic mark for him to break the record if he has Patrick Mahomes as his QB all of those years? He's 126 wins away from breaking Shula's record, and he's 62. Usually you would look at that task and go, "More than 12 wins per season for 10 straight seasons? Awfully tall task."

Well, not so fast. He gets a 17 game season for 8 or 9 of those years. Then you get the playoffs with Mahomes as your QB. And in any given year in which he comes in under the required yearly average for wins in the regular season, he'll most likely be at a 2 seed or worse, which in the new playoff structure gives him an opportunity to rack up an extra win against a theoretically easier playoff opponent.

So he DOES need to average 12.5 wins a year, but if he gets close to that number every season, the years in which he outright dominates should balance out the seasons where he doesn't hit the 12.5 wins mark.

He needs to do a lot better than his current career win percentage of .610 from here on out, but he's Andy Reid, and he's attempting this task with Patrick Mahomes, not McNabb, Garcia, Feeley, Vick, or Alex.

However, he's got one more obstacle in his way: Bill Belichick, who is 43 wins away. A couple of years ago I would have said, "He's going to shatter that." But once again, not so fast. George Halas and Marv Levy each hold the record for oldest NFL head coaches in history at 72. I know people are living longer and healthier these days, but I think I would apply that to someone like Pete Carroll. Bill Belichick? He just turned 68. And these days he probably tilts more towards the Andy Reid side of health than he does Pete Carroll. Additionally, he just handed the team over to some doofus named Garrett Shittem and didn't give him any kind of offensive support other than some extra TEs. I gather that they're going to be a run-first offense, but this is a little extreme. He might just wear out his welcome before those arbitrary 4 years he has to get to 43 wins and beyond.

Poll forthcoming

No chance in hell.

In b4 pole!

I would be very surprised if Reid does 5 more years before handing off to someone.

On a serious note, I kinda doubt it. That’s a lot of years left for him to have to win a lot of games. The Chiefs can win the Bowl from any playoff position so a few years of 9 or 10 wins won’t necessarily doom them but would hurt Andy’s shot.

Highly unlikely and it's a shame, he's great.

Never any shame in retiring in the top 5 of anything positive.

He's only 7 years away if they go 20-0 every year, which is certainly possible at this point.

But I think it'll be hard to keep going for another 11 years at 12 wins per year. Everyone involved is great, but there's just odds that something will happen to make him retire or depart, and 12 wins a year on average is hard, even if Mahomes is your quarterback.

I agree but 4 is better and that is very realistic.

That opinion makes a lot of sense, but do consider this:

Andy Reid is an extreme workaholic, and he probably loves football more than he loves sex. I think people are letting his weight cloud their judgment on this a bit.

He gets to see his son every day at work. He's got the best QB in the league. He's got a great owner with a steady leadership style, and his GM is young, organized, and has the advantage of acquiring talent each year by enticing players to play with Mahomes. Also for the first time in his coaching career, Andy doesn't have to deal with the aura or inner thoughts of people who might believe in the stupid "can't win the big one for a cursed franchise" ghost. He's never had it easier in his entire coaching career.

What's a guy like that going to do when he hangs it up? Yeah, that time has to come for everybody, but I reject this notion that Andy is more ready to quit in a couple years than other NFL head coaches in their 60s, particularly the older guys like Belichick and Carroll.

I worry about health more than desire.

He'd have to coach another ten years and average 11 wins a season. That's asking a lot.

I'm thinking no its not going to happen. Way too many variables involved. As Rainman said. It would be extremely difficult to maintain that pace for 10 more years.
But it would be an awesome run if he could do it! And it is not unprecedented.
The Pats have averaged 14.1 over a 10 year period if you count Playoffs and Superbowls.

Andy seems to be a football lifer, assuming he remains in good health, I think he could coach for another 10 years into his early 70’s.

Ya it’s more a health thing but I could see him leaving coaching but still being a part of football somehow.

I voted that he's going to do it. Why not? Think about all the records that he and Mahomes have already shattered in their short tenure together so far.

Most touchdown passes thrown through first two games of a season: 10
Most touchdown passes thrown through first three games of a season: 13
Most touchdown passes thrown through first three career games: 10
Most touchdown passes thrown through first eight career games: 22
Youngest quarterback to throw for six touchdowns in a game: 22 years, 364 days
Most consecutive road games with 3+ touchdown passes: 7
First player to throw for over 3,000 yards in his first ten games: 3,185
Most consecutive 300-plus passing yard games: 8 (tied)
Fastest player to 4,000 passing yards and 40+ touchdown passes: 13 games
Fastest to 7,500 career passing yards: 24 games

He's the only player in league history with more than 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in the postseason, and his playoff passer rating of 115.0 is the highest in modern NFL history by a margin of more than 12 points.

And the list goes on.

And let's not forget, through the first three games of the 2019 season, Pat Mahomes was on pace to throw for over 6,000 yds and 56 TDs.

Andy could ride the Mahomes train to an unprecedented winning percentage over the next 10 years. Say, something like average 15 wins/season? So why not? Why can't Andy surpass Shula? I'll be one of the first to just go ahead and jump on that train and say, yes, Andy's going to break that record right now.

I don't think he'll coach long enough for it to happen, unfortunately.

Yeah I cant see Andy coaching 10+ more years. If he doesnt get control of his weight he might not get many more years in that stressful pressure cooker.

Look, I know the weight is a big deal, but sometimes people have insane genes for stamina and health. He's 62, has gone up and down in his weight like Oprah, and hasn't been at a target weight in probably over 25-30 years (apparently when he first started coaching in Green Bay he wasn't fat)

If the weight thing was going to get to him, don't you think we'd be seeing some health complications cropping up here and there? The man hasn't missed so much as a single goddamn practice due to a health concern in his 22 seasons as a head coach.

I think if he's fine, guys. If he wants to coach 10 more years, and the Chiefs keep offering him the job, he'll find a way to make it happen.

He is winded walking into press conferences. I know he isn't going to change but I wish he would for his sake get that weight off. I want him to coach Pat through his career.

Bad knees , hips etc he has been a big dude since he was 11 and played football so it could be something minor like that.

I think that it's very possible that Reid could surpass Shula but as of today, I don't think that will happen, mainly due to health reasons.

If he drops 70-80 pounds and can stay at a healthy weight, I think it's much more likely but unfortunately, I just don't think that will happen.

You also forgot to mention that monster cock that he has to drag around

Possible, but not at all likely.

He'd need to coach another dozen years to do it. The odds are extremely low. There's a better chance Stidham puts Belichick's new record out of reach for the next few decades.

I hope Andy and Mahomes guide us to winning 7 of the next 10 Superbowls- then Andy retires on top.

Not even close

Before last season he was a borderline HOF coach. Now it’s all about cementing his legacy. Reid’s genius in his play calling is that he’s always evolving and borrowing from up and coming college OC’s. He’s like a chess grandmaster and the chiefs reap the benefits.

Andy Reid is 62 years old and is 121 wins behind Shula.

That's 12 wins on average for the next 10 years, meaning he is doing this until he is 72.

I don't see him being around that long.

Belichick is 68 years old and only 55 games behind Shula... he might make it, just depends on whether or not they fall off the absurd pace they've been on, which they likely will. Bill would have to average a 10+ wins over the next 5 years, meaning he's 73.

I just don't see either of them doing it at this point.

No. Andy will retire before he could even catch Shula. And he’s not catching up with BB likely either.

Regarding BB, he might be able to catch Shula, but I don’t think he’s gonna stay in the coaching game ‘too long’ in order to do that. BB, as a much of a prick as he is, has a LOT of respect for Shula. I think there’s a part of him that doesn’t even necessarily want to pass him. Having the media spotlight on him, etc. Plus, he’s in for a rough few years with the Pats coming up. Not sure he’s gonna stick around a long time to captain that sinking ship.

He might not surpass Don or Bill, but third place behind them isn't a bad way to go.

Guys, I literally did all of the math for you in the OP.

Do you morons ****ing read? You don't have to break it down for us in every post.

"You do know that means he has to win 12 games a year, right?"

Yes, because that's what I said in the ****ing OP.

No, it’s not.

And to go out winning a ‘few’ Super Bowls in his last remaining years, after being told forever ‘he can’t win the big one’ . . . . . .

Hell of a way to go out. :bravo:

Halas is second are we even sure Bill or Reid even catch him?

I know there's a lot of speculation that Andy could coach another ten years, but I don't see it. His mind would totally allow it, but I don't know that his health/body will hold up to 10 more NFL seasons. It's no secret that Andy's diet isn't the greatest, and he's already had reconstructive knee surgeries.

I hope he sticks around for the bulk of Pat's career. I think they win multiple rings together if so. But I can't see him here beyond 5 - 6 more years, personally.

Andy is as rejuvenated as ever with Mahomes. His job has never been easier or anywhere near as fun as it has been at any point in his entire life.

Imagine struggling for so long against competition bc you were handicapped, especially the time from after McNabb to the day we drafted Pat? Think about that. Andy won ONE playoff game in almost 10 years during that span.

Now he’s got perhaps the most talented QB ever and you guys think he’s just gonna walk away from that? LMAO

Andy has already lost a lot of weight, so he knows about his health. He’s actually considerably lighter than his worst days in Philly. I’m betting that Andy will continue to lose weight as he gets older to keep himself available doing what he loves.

Andy isn’t a retirement kinda guy in the first place. He lives for this. He literally lost his kid and got fired, had the chance to take a year off and said “nah **** that shit, I’m going to work.”

He’s gonna be here for at least 10 more years unless he has a serious health issue pop up.

Well, when you look at the leaderboard, there is a 121 gap not 125.

Your leaderboard is wrong.

Shula has 347. Andy has 222.

Subtract the two and you get 125.

Bill gets it, Andy doesn't catch him.

I was looking at Pro Football Reference.

Pat's career will be Andy's swan song and highest achievement. At the very minimum, Andy will coach through Pat's second contract. He's 62 now, so I could see him going another 6-7 years.

That said, I don't think there's a good chance he'll coach another 10 years as much as I would love for him to stay.

I feel like now that he's got the big one, he won't coach quite as long and therefore won't get there. But, who knows maybe he just won't want to NOT coach Mahomes and he just rides out Mahomes career and they both break every record ever.

Only if Andy losses 125 pounds

I'd say no unless the Chiefs remain this crazy juggernaut that is winning 12+ games every year and going to lots of superbowls.

It's gonna happen. Best QB, best coach, best GM, awww yeah.

Artery blockage willing......

I'm hoping Andy don't get the Corona. he probably deals with high blood pressure and hopefully doesn't take an Ace inhibitor.

Too old. He wont get there.

He's gonna win 5 more Superbowls and hang it up. So that's like 2026.

Your math doesn't make it look remotely possible though. Chiefs aren't going to win like that for a decade and there is going to be a year or two where Mahomes or other key injuries just tank their record. It's not happening in 10 years. Like do people think we are going to be running out squads like we've had the last two years for the next decade? That's not how it works, not even the Patriots managed that. And the AFC West is going to recover, it won't be like the AFC East has been for Belichick.

And the Patriots have averaged 12.47 wins per season since 2003, not including playoffs.

What makes Shula's record so impressive is that he did it while coaching during all those 14 game seasons and the strike seasons of '82 and '87. I hope Andy reaches at least 300 wins which is still an astonishing achievement. I hope Marty gets inducted in the Hall one day. That would make it 3 Chiefs coaches in the Hall of Fame.

It's quite obvious to most of us that we're going to win 15 games/season for the next 5 seasons, then at least 13 games/ season for the following 4 seasons, which is exactly enough to surpass Shula. Sheesh. Figure it out already.

He needs Pete Carroll(minus the gum:D) as his trainer IF he is going to make it another 10yrs.:shrug:

I don't know man the AFC West has been pretty crappy the last 20yrs except for one team or another dominating the division most of that time. The Patriots were in 9 SBs(6-3) in the last 20yrs and that's just insane when you think about it. If Reid stays healthy along with Pat staying healthy, along with good drafts and the major injury gods staying away it could be done BUT that is asking A LOT !!;)

I have an uncle who might have 200lbs. on Andy. My aunt has to push his ass up into their pick up from outside the cab if he goes anywhere. Luckily she's about 6'3", (can't play cb).
No one's ever expected him to live this long.

He's 69! Lol.

Hopefully he makes 300 before he retires or dies.

Do some of you believe all fat people die in their 50s or something?

Some of them do. Know which ones especially do? The ones who exhibit minor health complications associated with carrying all that extra weight.

Know which guy hasn't exhibited minor health complications associated with carrying all that extra weight?

Andy Reid.

I'm not saying the guy is going to live to be 100, but when you're as psychotically active as he is, your body oftentimes "forgets" to get sick and have bad shit happen to it.

I don't know if he's going to coach until he's 72, but I'd put money down that he's not going to die before 72.