Chiefs Pats scoring discussion.
 

After Mathieu's pick 6 last night,should Andy have went for 2? They were up 15, a 2 point conversion puts you up 3 scores and essentially ends the game.

Kick it.

2 TDs AND 2 2-Point Conversions would be extremely difficult for any offense, let alone that Patriots offense.

Kick. If your defense gives up two TD’s and two 2pt conversions in the 4th quarter to a Hoyer/Stidham led team, **** you anyway

I get kicking it, but you have your best unit being your offense with a chance to end the game.

If you don't get it, you're still up 15.

Kick it but kick it from 55 since Butker can make consecutive kicks through the uprights on kickoffs but can’t make extra points. A reason I believe it’s Townsends fault

16 forces 2 TDs with 2 2pt conversions just to tie, that's a tough road to hoe. Conversion rate is somewhere around 50%.

It still gives them a potential path to a tie though. If you get it, it doesnt'.

If the Patriots don’t convert BOTH 2-point conversions, then it becomes a 3 possession game.

I give the Chiefs a 70% chance of converting for 2. I also give them a 95% chance of making the PAT.

I give the Patriots about a 30% chance of converting for 2.

So if the Chiefs kick, we have a 95% chance of the margin being 16. 30% x 30% is 9%, which is New England’s chances of tying (and that assumes they can score 2 unanswered TDs). The inverse is a 91% chance that the game becomes 3 possessions. Multiply that by 95% and you get an 86.45% of a 3 possession game, because we kicked the PAT.

I’ll take the 86.45% chance over the 70% chance.

There are absolutely ZERO flaws in my logic.

Find me stats on how many teams in the history of football have scored two touchdowns and converted two 2 point conversions in a row. I'll wait.

Only one I can think of recently was the Patriots against Atlanta in the SB.

If it were up to me I'd absolutely go for the 2 point conversion. In that situation the reward outweighs the risk.

Don't chase points. You only go for two if youve lost all faith in Butker.

The Chiefs should go for 2 every time.

Let's assume that we make 48 percent of 2-point conversions (league average - can't find the Chiefs' percentage) and 94 percent of extra points (Butker's historic average).

If you go for the 2-point play, there's a ...

48 percent chance that the bad guys will need 2 TDs and EPs and an FG to tie it. (And change 1 EP to a 2-point play to win it.)
52 percent chance that the bad guys will need 2 TDs, 1 EP and 1 2-point play to tie it. (And change 1 EP to a 2-point play to win it.)

If you go for the 1-point play, there's a

94 percent change that the bad guys will need 2 TDs and 2 2-point plays to tie it. (And another score to win it.)
6 percent chance that the bad guys will need will need 2 TDs, 1 EP and 1 2-point play to tie it. (And change 1 EP to a 2-point play to win it.)


By kicking it, you're massively decreasing the likelihood that 2 TDs, 1 EP and 1 2-point play will make a difference. You're requiring them to get 2 2-point plays after touchdowns, which in combination will happen only 23 percent of the time even if they get the touchdowns.

You're giving yourself a 48 percent chance of completely putting the game out of reach with a 3-score differential, but if they can score two touchdowns they now have a 45 percent chance of tying it up rather than 23 percent chance, and they could also go for the win in that case.

In summary, I guess it depends on how likely you think it is that they can score two touchdowns, because these tradeoffs are purely a matter of taste. Kicking it nearly guarantees a lot of difficulty, while going for 2 could effectively end the game but leaves a small window of opportunity for the bad guys.

I might change my vote to kicking it.

The Chiefs 2 point conversion rate was 50% in 2018, 50% in 2019, and so far in 2020 is 100%.

So assuming you are as offensively prolific as the Chiefs there is still only a 25% probability you convert 2 of them in a row.

Wouldn't that be substantially higher than the probability of them scoring 3 times?

Also, think about the mental message that would send Butker. You think he's ****ed up now?

Might as well get in some goal line practice and go for 2. Game was essentially over with HB's Pk6. Tell Butker that's the reason if he's all in his feels.