Chubb (CLE) going out of bounds up 10-7?
 

I slept through it, but what's up with that? They don't want to blow out Houston by 10? WTF?

He really should have knelt down and given himself up at the two if he was going to do that it seems like... :: shrug ::

You'd think. But what is so wrong with beating a team by 10? 40 - sure. 10?

Why wouldn’t he just score? They would have been up 10 with like 56 seconds left. And the Texans has no timeouts left. Just felt kinda pointless to me.

Did you guys not watch the lions falcons game earlier this year

Imagine the reaction here if Williams had done that instead of scoring in the SB?

Yeah, the Falcons' defense is shit. They are 100% to blame. Anyone blaming Gurley for the loss is a stupid asshole that deserves to get raped with a swingline stapler.

Think Chubb was trying to be a team player, but he didn't think it thru. He should've scored there.

His decision cost me with a bet...

There was 1 minute to go. I think the odds of fumbling the snap on a kneel down are equal to Houston making that 10 pt comeback, but whatever.

Houston could've scored a TD on the kickoff, recovered an onside kick, and then tied it with a field goal or won with a hail mary. Not likely but crazy shit happens sometimes.

Apparently Mayfield and Stefanski called for that.. but Houston had literally NO timeouts.. it does seem a bit too cautious

Wow, there are people who actually think it was the wrong decision to stop short? When you're the browns you never ever assume the game is over. It was a heady, selfless play. Even though he should have taken a knee instead.

Statistically speaking I suppose it was a smart-ish play. Realistically, he should have slid instead of running out of bounds. If he slides, you run the clock down to like :15 seconds then snap the ball one final time to kneel it out.

If he scores, you run the risk of allowing a quick TD and then an onside kick-to-game-winning field goal. Both are highly improbable but stranger things have happened.

I do believe it'd be more likely they allow a quick TD then an onside kick recovery than fumbling a kneel play for a 99 yard TD, but I definitely like the two-score lead cushion. In that situation I'm 100% OK with Chubb scoring.

My dream scenario now is that the Cleveland Browns lose out on the playoffs because it comes down to the points tie-breaker and they are 5 points short.

lol.. that would be awesome.

Had them in a four team parlay that woulda paid about 3 grand

So screw him

It’s not arena ball don’t gotta be out there lighting up the scoreboard /herm

Agreed. Any time you can just kneel the clock out, you should just kneel the clock out. And Houston had no timeouts so going out of bounds instead of staying inbounds only meant they had to kneel twice instead of once.

A lot lower odds of someone getting hurt though.

Me too.

Hit Indy, Pittsburgh, and LA Rams.

Lost Cleveland due to Chubb not scoring.

Jackass cost me a perfect week at the casino.

Oh holy shit. ROFL


****ing OUCH. My buddy had a rule in the mid 2000s. Never put the Royals in a parlay. We spent the 7th 8th and 9th innings yelling ****ING ROYALS as they blew the lead that would have won him big money on a $5 bet.

**** Squirmin Herman Mother****ing Sack of **** Edwards. And that's all I have to say about that.

Meh. It's tough for me to say don't take the points. How cleveland would it have been to fumble the snap on a kneel down and Houston to return it?

Score every play you get a chance to. Kill or be killed.

Herm would have loved that game

A little off topic but its just fun to watch smart football. I hate the ravens but John Harbaughs game management is next level. Went offsides on purpose on 2nd and short before the 2 minute warning to stop the clock and force first and 10. Brilliant.

Yeah, and IIRC, he was the first guy that we faced that sold out on everything because they knew Mahomes was going to fist them.

If you watvh/listen to the 49ers broadcsst of the superbowl..all they talked about was how dumb it was for Dame not to go down

Bitter 9ers fans...

I love that glorious image of Dame Dash raising that football up over his head while he a ran into immortality...

Also if you watch the final play Drob had like 4 steps on Sherm..that woulda been a glorious way to end it..but mahomes made the smart throw out of bounds

He should have scored...

I don't agree with it. Never have, never will. You always score when you have a chance. Teams with the mentality to do what Chubb did are teams that never win anything important. It's playing not to lose rather than playing to win.

Yep.

BUT THE LINE WAS 3.5... as I screamed at the sky...

I had a four team parlay that didn’t hit because Chubb did that and kingsburry kneeled a pat

I hate them so much

We've seen many instances where a team scores too quick and the other team has a miraculous comeback. Rivers fumble is the only time I can remember a team messing up in victory formation. I get it if there's any chance the other team can get the ball back. But victory formation has to be one of the highest % plays in all of sports.

Chubb went OOB with 1:07 left.

If the Texans can score 11 points in 1 minute to win the game, the Browns deserved to lose.

Take the points every ****ing time.

This isn't the same thing as Herm Edwards returning it for a TD giving the Eagles the victory. Chubb was way out ahead, all by himself, and he went out of bounds.

I'm confused. Their chances of winning the game were 100% since he went out of bounds. Scoring would have made the chances less than 100%. But people still want him to score?

I guess I'm glad you guys aren't NFL coaches.

Not necessarily. Wasn't that GIF of Rivers saying worst ****ing day ever after he fumbled a victory formation? And if it's going to happen to somebody, wouldn't it happen to the Browns?

I'd put them at roughly even odds to fumble the football as Houston scoring 10 points in <:60 with (IIRC) no timeouts.

I suppose agree to disagree. I can't think of any other game in NFL history other than the one you're referring to where a team has lost on a botched kneel down. I think of a handful of games where a team has scored twice in the final minute to win it.

What exactly are the chances that Houston scored 11 points in somewhere around 1 minute?

Statistically possible isn't the same as probable.

Because it's all rigged. LMAO

I didn't say it was probable. I just would prefer my coach make decisions based on maximizing win probability, and I'll take 99.99% over 99.90%.

What about the fact that points are a playoff tiebreaker?

Not to mention not putting the defense out there for plays that should have been unnecessary.

Yep and Cleveland is likely to be involved at the end of the season.

Well ****, what's Andy doing pulling Mahomes in the 4th quarter??? :cuss:

I wonder how often that tiebreaker has been used. It's SEVENTH on the list, so it seems...bizarre...to think about that as part of your strategy. Otherwise, we'd see teams running up the score all the time.

I remember a few years back the Packers were in a situation where they had to win their Week 17 game by like 37 points or something to make the playoffs. They came out firing downfield and ended up almost doing it but coming up just short.

There's currently 7 three-win teams in the AFC.

Not sure of the relevance...

Had to look up that Packers game. They actually did cover the points they needed in Week 17 of 2000, but needed help in another game that didn't happen. Just remember how interesting it was that winning their game that day would be meaningless if they didn't do it by enough points.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/1999/200001...ap/arignb.html

Eh I don’t know.

I know we’re making up probabilities here but let’s go through it:

In order to lose going out of bounds you need the following to happen:
-Cleveland needs to Rivers the snap CLE recover
AND
-Houston to go on a 99 yard drive <:60, provided they don’t advance the recovery. If they do, a shorter drive becomes more probable, a score pretty much ends it.
Unlikely.

In order to lose scoring you need the following to happen:
-Houston to go on a 75 yard (likely) TD drive <:60
AND
-Houston recovers onside kick (which are impossible now unless your playing a short bus team like Atlanta)
AND
Houston manufactures a 50ish yard TD drive in <:60-drive 1. OR Houston manufactures at least a 30 yard drive for a Long FG in <:60-drive 1 and win in overtime.
I’d say about as likely as scenario 1.

I’ll take the points.

Find me any other game that has been lost on a botched kneel down, and I might believe the probabilities are similar.

SOME OF US HAVE OTHER REASONS FOR WANTING HIM TO SCORE FOR ****S SAKE

Similarly, can you find games that have a TD and FG in <:60 + OT victory OR 2 TD in <:60? I can't think of any off hand.

I guess the other one is ol Squirmin Herman Mother****ing Sack of **** Edwards in the Miracle at the Meadowlands.

Although those odds are pretty slim, I’ve seen scenarios like that happen in the last two minutes a few times. I think Atlanta recovered two onside kicks in a row against the Saints last year. Aside from the miracle in the Meadowlands, I can’t remember a time when a team lost when all they had to do was take a knee.

But I still wanted Williams to score at the end and it wouldn’t have been near as great a moment in Chiefs history if he decided to go down at the 5 yard line.

Rivers came back and beat us in the 2000’s when they were down 21-10 with under 90 seconds left. They scored a TD, recovered the onside kick and got another TD to win 22-21.

Edit: Rivers also fumbled the snap at Arrowhead when taking a knee to run out the clock and kick a game winning FG against us in 2011 (I think).

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...-comeback-win/

https://www.nfl.com/games/broncos-at-chiefs-2015-reg-2

The only reason to be upset at Chubb is if you had money on the game, that's it.

Or maybe you're a Browns fan who drafted him in fantasy and all you needed to win this week was 4 more points. You've lived your entire shitty life rooting for this garbage team and now they do this to you?

Pretty big difference between :90 and <:60, but it's close.

**** Donk Forever.

So if you count Phyllis and the Miracle Game, that's 2. The 2 that bearcat listed and maybe half of the one Spott listed, so you're looking at a 2:2.5 ratio out of how many damned tries?

Pretty even odds to me.

I dunno, Pre-Mahomes, I'd have probably thought fumbling a kneel down to lose would have been a very Because Chiefs thing to do.

For those who are defending Chubb - do you think Damien Williams should have run out of bounds in the Super Bowl?

MY KIDS ARENT EATING THIS WEEK BECAUSE OF HIM

Yep. Pretty sure there was a thread here discussing it.

Statistically yes. When it was happening live, hell no.

At least Cleveland was leading the game when he did it. My school had a RB pull this stunt at the end of a game Saturday while we were still trailing. Fortunately our kicker made the FG to win the game as time expired, but it was one of those situations that could have easily backfired on us.

They changed the onside kick rules specifically because of instances like that Atlanta game

It would be almost impossible to repeat that with the new changes.

The Chargers 2nd to last drive started with almost 5 minutes left in the game.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=281214012

I didn’t remember what year it was, but I remember their drive taking a long time before they score the first TD. But that second drive after the onside kick was really quick. We even had enough time to win the game at the end but Barth missed the FG.

The Patriots' 2nd to last drive started with 2:38 left on the clock.

The Broncos' 2nd to last drive started with 2:27 left on the clock.

Chubb would have scored with 1:07 on the clock.

HUGE difference.

The point is that Cleveland would have scored a TD with 1:07 left.

At that point, they are kicking off.

The most likely scenario is they have to drive 40 or so yards, kick a FG, and then recover an onside kick. At that point, they have to drive 50 yards for a TD and PAT for the tie or 2 point conversion for the outright win. The 2-point conversion obviously adds even more difficulty.

A kick return TD to start the sequence would make it infinitely easier but that's extremely rare. Any number of other scenarios are almost statistically impossible, like recovering two onside kicks, back to back.

The Browns weren't losing that game had Chubb scored. It just wasn't going to happen.

No one's arguing that it wouldn't be incredibly improbable. I'm just arguing that going out of bounds there made losing the game equally improbable (probably even less so) and reduced chances of fluke injuries at the end of the game.

I just hate the mentality. It's pure Martyball. When you pass up points like that, you invite bad things to happen. It's almost karmic.

Well one thing it made impossible was my ****ing parlay

So **** you math

And I hate the idea of coaches making decisions on things like "karma."

Marty made decisions based on "safe" probabilities. Those decisions almost ALWAYS led to playoff disappointment.

Prevent defenses, going away from the pass to protect a lead, etc.

I know it sounds odd to think about "karma" but we lived it as fans for a good 15 years until Peterson was gone.

Right now there are at least 6 AFC teams that have a 6-3 record, including the Browns division rival, BAL. And at some point, "Points Scored For" becomes important in determining playoffs seeding.

And the idea that HOU was going to score a TD and a FG in 70 seconds is laughable. In their first seven possessions of that game they scored zero points, and averaged a little over 20 yards per possession. Even in their eighth and last possession they took nearly 3 minutes to score, even knowing they needed to score as quickly as possible, because they still needed to get another score.

HOU wasn't going to suddenly score twice in 70 seconds.

And CLE needed those points.

So when you said under no circumstances do you avoid a score, what if Cleveland was up by 1? In which case a TD likely gives the other team the ball with a one score deficit. Seems a no brainer you take the knee there.

For a larger deficit.... We're kind of arguing two highly improbably outcomes. However I'd bet over history the likelihood of a victory formation fumble is so tiny its to the point of nearly impossible. It's at the very least hard to argue that it's wrong.

I mean, I agreenif we are talking about any possibility at all of the other team getting the ball back. But victory formation isn't just safe. It is as close to a guarantee as you're going to get.

Yeah, it's the difference between taking the 99.99% chance of winning when all you have to do is not screw up a kneel down (and if they did screw it up, they'd most likely have to drive 50+ yards to get into FG range with less than a minute left), or a 99% chance of winning by scoring the touchdown.

It's effectively arguing over that +/-0.99%.