ESPN Playoff Machine
 

It's back...

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

This will all change, but as of now, we would play the Raiders in our 1st game of playoffs.

Baltimore is making the playoffs, their schedule is a joke. The Titans or Colts will take another wild card spot.



So the question really is if the Browns or Raiders get the 7th seed.


Browns have a game up, but Raiders have the tiebreaker.

Raiders have a joke of a schedule, they’ll make it.

YUCK!

I think we get the first seed. I see the Steelers losing to the Ravens and Bills and maybe the Colts.

We need it. I want the bye. So dumb the way they changed the playoffs now.

They could still **** things up for themselves. Old habits are hard to break.

Raiders will probably get in as the 6th seed. Their schedule is too easy.

Miami/Cle will fght for the last spot.

With the way COVID is spreading, still no guarantees the whole season will complete?

Could be an 8 team playoffs with no byes!

I just hate that KC needs help from others. Pretty confident if they played the Steelers in regular season, KC would get the victory.

Chiefs can beat any team in the NFL and will be back to back Champs!

The good news is the Chiefs will likely hold any tiebreakers over the Steelers due to conference record. Chiefs remaining AFC opponents are Broncos, Dolphins, and Chargers. Hard to see them ending up with more than 1 conference loss. The Steelers still have 5 conference games left, including Ravens, Bills, Colts, and Browns. Very real possibility that they drop multiple games in that stretch. The Chiefs could lose another game (TB or NO) and still get the #1 seed.

I believe we will have the tiebreaker if the Ravens and Chiefs both win next week. Common opponent since Pitt doesn’t play the Raiders.

That assumes we both somehow end up 15-1.

Steelers won't lose to the Bills. We need Ravens to win this week.

Eagles in the playoffs with a 3-7-1 record... oh my.

If we can't get past the Raiders in the playoffs, we don't deserve to win the Super Bowl. Pretty simple.

We need the Ravens to beat the Steelers. The divisional record is the second tie-breaker behind head-to-head and since we don’t play the Steelers it’s the only way to get the bye with the same record.

Or lose to Cleveland.. I kid, I kid..

You’re right of course — all kidding aside — but the Ravens are probably the best chance to get that win and it also helps with the head-to-head in common opponents which is the third tie-breaker.

Guys, the Ravens are done. They may sneak into the playoffs on the back of beating the Jags and the Giants and one other team. I suppose they could beat the Steelers but I wouldn’t get your hopes up. Bills, Colts and maybe at Browns if the Browns need the game, are their best shot at losses

Divisional record is a tie-breaker only if you're in the same division with the other team. We're not in the same division with the Steelers, so it moves on to the next tie-breaker.

Raiders schedule is a cakewalk, they should get higher than the 7 seed. I think we're going to be looking at hosting the Browns, Titans/Colts or Ravens.

Love this. Thanks for posting.

Doesn’t The NY Times have something similar?

Heh, the Giants win the division at 5-11 under my settings.

The AFC is gonna have a team miss the playoffs at 10 wins even with an extra team...damn.

The Raiders are the type of team that could easily lose to Atlanta, Indy, LAC, and/or Miami. Atlanta is a let down game, Indy and Miami have the defense, and the Chargers can out score them.

They didn’t get in with my simulator.

How do you know?

538 has their version here:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/

And the NY Times version is here:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/..._r=0#event=bye

For what it's worth, those sites have the Raiders at about a 60-65% chance of making the playoffs. Their schedule from here on out isn't exactly difficult.

That would be hilarious if the Raiders don't get in. A lot of people are putting them in as an automatic team, they could very well miss the playoffs though.

Indy, MIA, and LAC can beat them.

But that win over the Browns gives them a tie breaker there and that may be what gets them in.

Meanwhile in the NFC East....

Even IF we do see the Raiders again, it’s going to be in a very cold Kansas City environment.

We know Carr sucks nuts in those conditions.

I've changed the way I think of Carr.

I have:

1. Chiefs
2. Steelers
3. Titans
4. Bills
5. Raiders
6. Ravens
7. Browns

1. Saints
2. Packers
3. Rams
4. Cowboys
5. Seahawks
6. Buccaneers
7. Cardinals


Browns & Colts both ended up 10-6, but Browns must have had the tiebreaker. Every NFC team not making the playoffs ended up with a losing record in my scenario, and the Cowboys are in with a stellar 6-10 record.

These are always fun. I tried to go conservative and had us dropping the TB and NO games. Here's what I came up with:

1. PIT
2. KC
3. BUF
4. IND
5. TEN
6. BAL
7. LV

Poor Brownies and Dolphins on the outside looking in at 10-6 and 9-7 :(

1. NO
2. GB
3. SEA
4. PHI
5. TB
6. ARI
7. LAR

I have the Eagles taking the NFC East at 6-9-1, hosting the 13-3 Buccaneers in round 1 LMAO

I tried to sneak in some upsets here and there but I ended up with NYJ, CIN, DET, WFT and JAX losing out. I'm positive that won't happen but it's hard to bet on any of those teams.

Ravens are going 11-5, their schedule is easier than the Raiders. All of the AFC North has a cupcake schedule.

quite possible to have all 7 AFC teams with 12+ wins AND a 10 win team misses out.....crazy

This should be the year that they finally change the rules and do something about this.

For home field I believe tiebreakers are:
Head to head
Conference record
Common opponents

The last one is why we need Balt to win badly this coming week.

They will NEVER change this!

A division winner will always host a WC, regardless how bad a division winner is!

I think The Ravens are gonna fold.

Not sure why people are stressing so much over the 1 seed. There won't be a home crowd advantage, and we're likely hosting a team like the Browns/Titans/Dolphins that we would probably dispose of fairly easily.

Gives Mahomes a chance to pad his playoff win total and another rare playoff W for the franchise.

An extra playoff game is another chance to lose a game or major contributor to injury.

The one seed gets a bye, which nearly doubles the chances we'll win the Super Bowl. And right now, the team we would play is the Raiders.

Yes. There's no other league that has eight divisions and four teams per each. I wouldn't mind if they go to four divisions with eight teams in each. Put more prestige on winning a division. We don't need eight freaking divisions.

Fat chance. Lamar looks like shit.

It's not about the 1-seed, it's about the bye. Under last year's rules, Chiefs would be in line for a bye with the 2-seed, which would be perfectly fine. They could theoretically go 15-1 and still have to play in the 1st round, which would be stupid.

Are you saying they shouldn't or they won't? Do you believe it's fair that a 5-11 team will be hosting a playoff game this year while teams with 9 or 10 or even 11 wins could miss the playoffs entirely?

The first goal every team in the NFL has is to win their division.

I don't see that ever changing. Sure there are times when division winners are going to suck but it gives every team a shot at making the playoffs too. The NFL loves that & it isn't going to change.

The Chiefs have a 37% chance to get the bye.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/..._r=0#event=bye

I think that was also the percentage the Chiefs had of winning the SB with 9 minutes left too

Browns beat the Colts earlier this season.

I just ran mine...same thing except I have the Giants winning the NFC East.

1. Chiefs
2. Steelers
3. Titans
4. Bills
5. Raiders
6. Ravens
7. Browns

1. Saints
2. Packers
3. Rams
4. Giants
5. Seahawks
6. Buccaneers
7. Cardinals

Who holds the tiebreaker between the Steelers and Chiefs should they have the same record at the end of the season? How is that determined?

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures


Two teams

Head-to-head (if applicable)
Best won-lost-tied percentage within conference games
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (minimum of four)
strength of wins
strength of schedule
Best combined ranking among conference teams in both points scored and points allowed
Best combined ranking among all teams in both points scored and points allowed
Best net points in conference games
Best net points in all games
Best net touchdowns in all games
Coin toss

This loss really hurts Raiders playoff hopes. They will be two games behind Cleveland and might have to run the table if Baltimore wins the games it should on its cupcake schedule.

What happens if we finish on the same record as steelers?

It goes to tiebreakers, which get complicated. The first one is conference record, so it would depend on whether their loss came from the NFC or AFC.

Yep LMAO

Essentially, if we win out and the Steelers lose against the Ravens, Bills, Colts, or Browns we get the #1 seed according to the playoff machine.

Not sure why a loss to the Bengals doesn't also give it to us but according to PM it doesn't. Neither does a Pittsburgh loss to the Washington Football Team.

So we win out and hope they lose one or more of the four games above.

Regarding the single bye week

It is very nice to automatically advance to the next round

It ****ing sucks with all the disruptions and interviewing that happens if your team is on the bye

Seems like the interviewing process gets postponed until after the season with the exception being if the team in the playoffs is on the bye week, is that correct?

A lot of chatter today about the playoff bubble. I wonder how that would work?

Just went through and did my new set of predictions...

Wild Card:

Raiders (7) over Steelers (2)
Titans (3) over Colts (6)
Ravens (5) over Bills (4)

Saints (2) over Cardinals (7)
Seahawks (3) over Buccaneers (6)
Rams (5) over Football Team (4)

Divisional:

Chiefs (1) over Raiders (7)
Titans (3) over Ravens (5)

Packers (1) over Rams (5)
Seahawks (3) over Saints (2)

Conference:

Chiefs (1) over Titans (3)
Packers (1) over Seahawks (3)

Super Bowl:

Chiefs over Packers

This is all so fluid... I’ll change my mind on things next week to some extent. But this is where I’m at now. I had a really tough time picking every AFC game that the Chiefs weren’t in.

WFT is NFC. First tiebreaker is conference record.

So if they lose 1 to WFT and we tie, they win the tiebreaker because we lost to an AFC team.

If they lose to the Bills, the 2nd tiebreaker is common opponents. Since we beat the Bills and both would have one conference loss, we win the tiebreaker.

If they lose to the Bengals, it gets confusing. The 3rd tiebreaker is strength of VICTORY, and since the Bengals are awful, I'm guessing a loss there would actually INCREASE the Steelers' SOV.

If they lose to any other AFC team, the 4th tiebreaker is SOS. We win that one.

We really want them to lose to Buffalo because that one is automatic.

So if Pitt gets the #1 seed, there's a good chance we play the Raiders again.

I'd much rather have the #1 seed if that's the case.

The Raiders would need to make up 2 games on the Browns, which I don't think they will do. Most likely the 7th seed is Cleveland.

We broke the Raiders will. They threw everything they had at their Super Bowl (our game) and lost. The rest of the year they’ll implode.

Well a lot can change with that 7th seed like other posters mentioned above.

I had the Raiders losing to the Colts and beating the Dolphins (both home games), but if they do lose to Miami, then they’d miss altogether probably.

I want the Faders to finish with a losing record like they usually do.

After their SB loss against us they appear to be broken

Two teams:

Head-to-head (if applicable)
Best won-lost-tied percentage within conference games
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (minimum of four)
strength of wins
strength of schedule
Best combined ranking among conference teams in both points scored and points allowed
Best combined ranking among all teams in both points scored and points allowed
Best net points in conference games
Best net points in all games
Best net touchdowns in all games
Coin toss

A Steelers loss to the WFT doesn't hurt them at all in regards to the first round bye.

Crazy.....I have a scenario where an 11 win Colt team, a 10 win Miami team, and a 10 win Raider team all miss the playoffs in the AFC....

How crazy would that be!

Exactly.

It does if it’s one of two losses. Or if they lose there and to an afc team and we lose to the Saints. We want them to lose them all.

If they lose to the WFT and to the Browns and we lose to the Saints, they win the tiebreaker due to strength of victory.

We need them to lose to Buffalo.

Or it looks like maybe we win the strength of victory tiebreaker if they lose to the Bengals.

This is what I've got. Make sure to place your bets now. You can thank me later.

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You've got Pitt losing out? :)

You must have been drinking pretty hard when you did this. :)

The Dupree injury really derailed their season. And the Lions respond to the new coach.