I own the 2021 KC Draft guide. AMA.
 

It's a 300 page superdocument created by the smart kids behind the AP Lab, to document as many NFL prospects as possible, specifically with a KC angle that allows for them to tell us how good of a fit such-and-such players are for the 2021 Chiefs.

Any questions about it and its contents, I will answer with the guide.

Ask away.

So which position are we drafting because offensive tackle is just WAY too obvious?

That's a good question, but the Guide does not predict the Chiefs draft picks.

It only grades and reviews prospects, and asks how well each one would fit KC.

Fair enough. Which prospect out there grades the highest based on the three obvious areas the Chiefs might lean in the first round?

What's it say about Brenden Jaimes?

I assume you mean the three highest areas are OT, DE, and WR. That's just my assumption.

That being said, the highest grades at WR are (bold players are people they grade as "high fits" with the Chiefs, italics are players they grade as "medium fits"):

1st round grade:
Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
Devonta Smith, Alabama

2nd round grade:
Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
Dyami Brown, North Carolina
Kadarious Toney, Florida

At OT:

1st round grade:
Penei Sewell, Oregon
Rashawn Slater, Northwestern

2nd round grade:
Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State
Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Jalen Mayfield, Michigan
Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame
Samuel Cosmi, Texas
Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State

At DE:

1st round grade:
Kwity Paye, Michigan
Jaelen Phillips, Miami

2nd round grade:
Jayson Oweh, Penn State
Azeez Ojulari, Georgia <--- low fit
Joseph Ossai, Texas
Joe Tryon, Washington
Gregory Rousseau, Miami
Daelin Hayes, Notre Dame

They have Jaimes as their 219th ranked prospect on their big board.

He is their 28th ranked OT.

He has a 5th round grade. They do not have a write-up on him.

Jaylen Waddle and Dyami Browm with similar grading?


Yikes!

They are of the belief that Waddle is a medium fit with KC, and will require "manufactured touches" much like Hardman. They are far more sour on him than just about every other publication I've read.

They are high as hell on Brown, however, who they see as excellent at defeating CBs more on his own than scheme-designed, and is "maybe the best vertical threat in this draft class," and runs a ton of routes very well.

They conclude by asking about Brown that even though they'd be reaching for him if they select him in the 1st, it could be a "match made in heaven."

Waddle still has the higher grade, however.

Edit: Waddle is their 20th ranked prospect. Brown is their 38th.

More likely and better fit in later rounds WR?

Josh I
Seth Williams
Anthony Schwartz
Ihmar Smith-Marsette
Sage Surratt

Chris Simms has Brown as his 3rd rated WR in the entire class behind Chase and Smith.

Smith-Marsette is the 13th ranked WR in their guide (89th overall player) with a 3rd round grade (and one of the analysts adored him), a high fit
Williams is the 16th (104th) with a 3rd round grade, a high fit
Surratt is the 27th (180th) with a 5th round grade, a medium fit
Schwartz is the 30th (202nd) with a 5th round grade, a high fit
Imatorbhebhe is the 34th (251st) with a 6th-7th round grade, and they did not write a review or name a fit

I have Waddle as WR #1 and Dyami wouldn't be in my top ten WR's.

This happens every year though. WR's are beauty in the eye of the beholder.

He also thought Ryan Finley was a 1st round pick.

Everyone makes mistakes.

Simi Fehoko analysis?

Agreed. Everyone. Scouts, GMs, internet junkies like us. All included.


Personally, I've probably called as many good players bad as I have bad players good. The law of averages always gets everyone. I could be wrong on Brown, who I think is in the top 5 WRs in this class. I could be wrong on Forsythe, who others are high on early and I'm more of a mid-round guy on him. Even the best GMs only hit on about 3 players per draft.

Hell, the chances of getting a starter out of round 1 is only around 30%, with diminishing returns thereafter.

We all makes mistakes. What separates the people who are better is learning from when they missed.

What did I miss? What did I not see.

I really like Seth Williams but my overenthusiasm for Hakeem Butler has taught me to be more observant of how long it can take.

So with Williams you see 40% of the plays where he looks like a superstar but you need to move him down the board because he isn't consistent. There are some bad rep there too. If you draft him you need to wait till year 2 , year 3 to see if you hit on something nice.

I actually completely agree in totality with this post. I think Waddle is far underrated and should be the best WR in the draft.

His separation is just ridiculous.

The compare him to DK Metcalf (in terms of his playing style, not projecting his future career) and label him a "high fit" with the Chiefs, giving him a 3rd round projection.

They say he's big and imposing, creating space through technique and hand usage, with elite long speed.

But they do say he's linear and doesn't have a ton of "snap to his hips," along with some bad drops.

Yeah on the WRs I like Waddle a ton and think DaVonta Smith is severely overrated.

My top 15 would shake out around this, depending on a particular team's needs:

1. JaMarr Chase
2. Jalen Waddle
3. Dyami Brown
4. Elijah Moore
5. Rashod Bateman
6. DaVonta Smith
7. Kadarius Toney
8. Terrace Marshall
9. Tylan Wallace
10. Amari Rodgers
11. Seth Williams
12. Dazz Newsome
13. Nico Collins
14. Tutu Atwell
15. DWayne Eskridge

I also think DaVonta Smith is super overrated. I cannot get the obsession there.

What did they say about Tylan Wallace? I know he didn’t have the best pro-day, so I’m curious as to what they think.

Also, Daniel Jeremiah just dropped his mock draft and has us taking Kelvin Johnson CB Kentucky. I would be VERY surprised if we go CB.

It could happen since this draft is loaded with OT and WR

I wouldn't be surprised at all. They've been sniffing around corners and we all know how expensive they can get.

They have Tylan as the 10th WR, with a 3rd round grade. He is compared to Stefon Diggs (in terms of playing style, not talent or future projection), and describe him as a "high fit" with KC.

They have him as the 68th overall player on their big board.

They call him "an absolute DOG with the ball in the air and has a my-ball mentality." They say his ability to make contested catches is almost second-to-none in the draft class, and has good route running abilities, though he'll need refinement, and they say "he's a quarterback's best friend" because he keeps working to get open until the play is truly over.

They also say he's average in terms of stature and speed, and press man coverage can screw with him at the LOS.

He's readymade for the NFL, they say, and would be a good fit for some of Mahomes' more creative YOLO balls and scramble drills.

Would you mind sharing what they think of the pair of Clemson receivers Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell?

TIA!

I listen to the pod and often wonder as they clamor about their guys, have they hit on any previous picks?

Can you post the top 31 ranked players? I’m really curious.

WR Tommarion "Scary" Terry from FSU have any upside?

He'd be a late rounder WR I'd take a flyer on.

What’s the story on Larry Borom from Mizzou?

Spencer Brown?

He has one of the best pro-day workouts in history. Interesting prospect for sure.

Brown played tight end all through high school. Put on tons of artificial weight in college.”when he was converted to O-line. While his athleticism is through the roof, I worry that he will suffer from JJ Watt syndrome and always be injured because he has to work so hard to keep weight on.

Artificial weight? ROFL

?

You think these dudes walk around naturally at these weights when their careers are over let alone entire off-seasons? Industry term.

When Akiem Hicks was recruited to LSU out of high school, it was as a linebacker and he weighed between 225-240 lbs. max. He is currently listed at over 350 lbs.

I’m fully aware. You’re using it as some knock on him when most offensive linemen do the exact same shit.

Not all. With age, metabolism slows and it is easier for them to keep the weight on. Read an interview with Brown and he admitted his struggles with it as he is a hard-gainer and wasn’t crazy about the toll it took on his body.

Mind posting the link?

Struggling to find the damn thing - it actually quoted Brown grumbling a bit about having to wake in the middle of the night to eat to pack weight on.

PFN alludes to his high school/college transformation here:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/s...le-uni-tackle/

Decent read.

I’ll see if I can’t find it...

You're welcome.

Amari Rodgers is WR14 (95th prospect overall) with a 3rd round grade. His playing style is compared to Randall Cobb's and he's given a "medium fit" designation for the Chiefs.

They say he's "one of the grittiest, smartest" players in the draft, built like a RB who showcases a great vertical and great speed to get deep, playing completely fearlessly and was still productive after Trevor Lawrence went down. However, he is mostly a threat to zone defenses, and may have trouble shaking CBs in the NFL, as his route running needs a lot of work and he can get out-physicalled quite a bit.

Cornell Powell is WR31 (220th prospect overall) with a 5th round grade. He does not have an analysis in the guide.

They do not address that in the guide.

1. QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
2. QB Zach Wilson, BYU
3. TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
4. OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
5. QB Justin Fields, Ohio State
6. LB Micah Parsons, Penn State
7. OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
8. CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
9. EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan
10. WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
11. CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama
12. EDGE Jaysen Oweh, Penn State
13. EDGE Jaelen Phillips, Miami
14. QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State
15. EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia
16. WR Devonta Smith, Alabama
17. OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State
18. OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
19. CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
20. WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
21. RB Najee Harris, Alabama
22. OT Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
23. OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan
24. WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
25. CB Greg Newsome II, Minnesota
26. EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas
27. TE Brevin Jordan, Miami
28. IOL Landon Dickerson, Alabama
29. S Trevor Moehrig, TCU
30. EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington
31. OT Liam Eichenberg, Norte Dame

Terry is WR33 in the guide (244th overall) and does not have a player evaluation in the guide. He has a 6th-7th round grade.

Borum is OT25 in the draft guide (201st overall) and does not have a player analysis. He has a 5th round grade.

Brown is OT16 in the guide (94th overall) and has a 3rd round grade.

He's, clearly, "massive," and moves like a much smaller player. His strength is in the run game, where he roadgrades and eradicates at the 2nd level. His play in the pass is strong, too, showing savvy abilities in managing passrushers. He is still very, very raw, however, and has a lot of technicalities to clean up -- he's still relatively new to the position.

They compare his playing style to Kaleb McGary, and conclude he has a rare set of skills that are appealing but is only a "medium fit" because the Chiefs are so pass-heavy. A long-term project.

What about WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette?

Also, what do you guys think about him?

https://youtu.be/1pR7m07KLqA

I feel like he can be our Juju lol. He has those jet sweep routes on point.

I like Smith-Marsette alot actually. I don't know if he can be a #2 but I think he's a good #4 receiver that can push the offense vertically and he's a good returner. Both of those bring value in about the 5th round for me.

He's very linear, which is the bulk of his issues IMO. Not much wiggle. He has to use some pretty severe upper body faking on double-moves and he won't get away with it as much in the NFL. It will really depend on how well he can learn to run routes in the NFL... I suppose that sounds generic as ****. But yeah, he's not going to just blow the doors off the guys at this level. He'll have to do more underneath, but his body is slim. He's not JuJu, nor anywhere near it, from a physical perspective.

If this is right, we are going edge in the first, probably jayson oweh or azeez?

Oweh is a high fit, but he's also a JPP model, and will go in the teens I bet.

Azeez is a low fit -- he's what, 245 pounds soaking wet? The Guide argues he is exclusively a 3-4 rushbacker.

Kiper just dropped his new mock draft, I’m not about to pay to read his mocks though.

Edit: He has us drafting Jayson Oweh in the 1st and Walker Little in the 2nd.

Yea, and I’m 100% down with that. If Oweh is there at 31, that’s a huge swing I’m willing to take.

Zero sacks, and a guy who hasn’t suited up in forever.

Get outta here with this shit.

I guessed him as our pick earlier. Looks like someone Spags would drool over for the D.

Walker Little in the 2nd is bigtime. He could legit start at LT.